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RobertPaulson

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About RobertPaulson

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    I met a traveller from an antique land<br />Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone<br />Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand,<br />Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,<br />And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command,<br />Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,<br />Which yet survive, stampt on these lifeless things,<br />The hand that mockt them and the heart that fed:<br />And on the pedestal these words appear:<br />'My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:<br />Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'<br />Nothing beside remains. Round the decay<br />Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare<br />The lone and level sands stretch far away."<br /><br />"Ozymandias", by Percy Bysshe Shelley
  1. yes of U238, not U235. I'm not trying to say we are about to run out of uranium, merely that there isn't a huge amount of U235 that can be obtained at a reasonable ERoEI, much of the resources will never be recovered (the seawater filtering lunacy that is often written about for example). I think we are very close to peak oil, but it will be impossible to call until years past the event, but when we eventually start to cascade down the BTU ladder of other non-renewable fuel sources, then predicted global supply lifetimes may not turn out to be quite as long as we currently think (unless relying on the magic bullet of 'new and technology'). Additionally I am no anti-nuke supporter, it is pretty much the only option on the table which can attempt to maintain the status quo of UK generation capacity over the next 15 years +. However, unless ford start producing the focus 1MW with a small nuclear reactor in the boot and we can somehow turn DU into industrial fertiliser, I don't think avoiding brown outs will be a huge comfort.
  2. ABN AMRO owns Hollandse Bank Unie (HBU), which is the largest gold bank in the netherlands and is likely to have a big short on its books. Perhaps puts a different perspective on nervy letters to the FT from Chief Economists.
  3. At current rates of consumption we have 32 years of uranium left globally (not including military supplies), peak uranium appears to have occurred back in 2001, along with the sweet crudes, so its not looking like a great solution, but then what is?
  4. Well maybe... Could be a very volatile day, bearish news all weekend, USD/JPY levels near intervention by the BoJ and falling (they pumped $200-300b in back in 2003/4 at these support levels) and asian markets leading the way already (Nikkei down 1.62%, Kospi down 2.3%, Singapore 2.6%, Australia 1.6% and Taiwan 1%). DOW down after the FTSE closed on friday, the list goes on... Anyone care to bet which way london will open today?
  5. Sounds just like a mini version of LTCM on sport betting websites! Quite a few people have built arb-bots which continually scrape the websites of spreadbetting/online betting firms looking for arbs and then automatically execute. There is money in it, but the risk is phenomenal, if your connection fails at the wrong moment you end up going naked on one position and can lose your entire years P&L due to the leverage you need to turn any sort of a reasonable profit. The best analogy I have heard for derivatives arbitrage trading makes it akin to running across a busy motorway to pick up pennies. Eventually the margins get squeezed as other people wise up and then the temptation is to go taking positions or looking for convergence/divergence 'dirty' arbitrages (where you have basis risk due to the two/three/whatever instruments not being perfectly matched or off setting), at which point you quite soon find out that the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent! Good luck to your mate though
  6. exactly, also not helpful if 4/5ths of your staff can't get in because of a hurricane and most of their systems are down. The computers ran the show for most of the day and didn't have the parameters to cope with what happened. Black box programs are much more sophisticated now and shouldn't do the same thing. FTSE is now re-testing 5960 from beneath, if it fails...
  7. just love the last paragraph I can't wait to see the look on their faces when they see rates have to keep going up..and up..and up...and up... Another .25% rise this week and the dollar goes down. Hardly needs a rocket scientist to work out what would happen if Bernake even started hinting at rate cuts let alone actually making them.
  8. the other wonder of CPI is the effect of substitution, i.e. if something in the index gets more expensive you use less of it (so its weightings are decreased). If petrol goes up does your place of work move closer too you? No, thought not. Whether short sighted or through deliberate manipulation CPI vastly under-represents real inflation in the core cost of living (and yes tax is excluded in its calculation, I wonder if there is a substitutional effect for that too...). The reasons are many (for example, selecting goods for the basket just as they move into the mainstream and start to benefit from the deflationary impact of globalisation and economies of scale) but I think BDO Stoy Hayward or E&Y released a report recently that had real inflation somewhere close to 12% - the only treasury comment was "this is not a recognised measure of inflation". The NAO has also issued a stern warning about manipulation of the figures and the chinese wall between the ODPM and the ONS, infact the BoE (just for one more acronym) last year was threatening to produce its own figures due to loss of faith in those produced by the govt (sorry, the totally different ONS). Obviously if lower interest rates and inflation mean: * that state pension and welfare payments do not increase very quickly * the cost of funding govt debt is lower * justification for public sector pay increases is harder to come by and you get to claim that 2.5% is actually a "good deal" and above inflation. * sheeples pre-occupation with "monthly payments" rather than lifetime costs can be easily exploited in a low IR environment and means it isn't hard to produce a massive asset price boom on the back of deregulation of lending standards. The majority of the people who vote for you feel richer and keep voting for you.. So, knowing this, why or how the hell would the ODPM fiddle the figures? Especially as Tony has consistently kept that real sharp tool Prescott in charge - he would be onto dodgy manipulation of statistics like a shot.. My real concern is by selectively averaging across fast increasing core costs (driven by rampant energy and commodity costs) and deflating non-essential consumer goods seeing a one off deflationary impact through the effect of globalisation and then margin erosion as retailers dump stocks in the face of a collapse in demand, we could effectively walk into stagflation without realising it. Once the deflationary impacts of globalisation start to bottom out there could well be a sharp bounce, even in CPI or RPI-X, which catches everyone out and leaves a central bank with already low IRs very little room to move.
  9. Sounds plausible but there is far more liquidity in Euro-Dollar, which perhaps explains the GBP/EUR rise against EUR and GBP (well and everything, even NZD) both going up against $? Not sure I totally buy it though, but something odd is going on..
  10. my post about squatting was aimed at the OP with a landlord who had missed a mortgage payment. Heather5's post don't quite add up and to my mine are a wind up. Especially the 'I can't get credit' one, what do you want a credit card for anyway, the things are a tax on stupidity on par with the lottery! This country is debt mad, if you don't have defaults, arrears, CCJs, etc. and run a well managed bank account, then I cannot believe there is a bank in this land which would refuse to lend you money in the current climate. But then whole things made up anyway isn't it.
  11. if you lay you are simply fronting for another bet (backing). They easy way to think about it is punters back, bookies lay, if you work out the over-round (i.e. the odds on the all the possible options for the bet, say 110%) then you get the bookies profit (always assuming they are good enough to hedge themselves properly). www.betfair.com has a good tutorial if you want to delve further.
  12. ouch.. I am at a complete loss as to why the £ is still soaring against $. Granted people have to put their money somewhere, but why bother with £ we are nearly as screwed as the US. £vs€ as a play makes no sense either. At least this will keep inflation at bay for a while longer, unfortunately by killing of the last of any productive UK industry to let us fall that much harder once fundamentals come back into play. One interesting point of view on the situation
  13. just squat the place, change the locks and refuse to pay anymore rent. Should push the landlord over the edge. My guess is the price you can buy the place for (if for some bizarre reason you wanted to), either by negotiation direct with the lender or at auction will be a greater saving than the cost of any eventual small claims court settlement against you in the landlords favour. Given that they will probably be bankrupt anyway, the settlement would just go to the lenders so I can't imagine they would be arsed with the bother of putting a claim through just for the funds to go to someone else. Could be a good way to take out a few baby BTL landlords - if you get the first sniff of trouble refuse to pay rent or move out. Time to get gorrilla I wonder why TTRTR told you to keep paying the rent no matter what...
  14. as mentioned above 0.25% is an utter no brainer unless bernake wants to bring on a complete rout (I'm discounting .5%..). The key is in the text, any firm talk on pausing will see the dollar plunge, hints will probably see around 200bp drop vs EUR/JPY and full on rate hawk could well see a mild dollar bounce. It will also be interesting to see the treasury comments on china, full on declaration of 'currency manipulation' would also see a sharp dollar fall, given the political ramifications (they need china and russia onboard to get anything through on Iran at the UN) I can't see this happening, although if it does I would see it as a proxy declaration of war on Iran by implication. Most likely, changed text from the FOMC but with only vague hints of a pause as bernake learns the benefits of greenspanese and a mixed treasury report, praising china for progress with a slight rebuke on currency float. Result, dollar down. I don't think it could rallye if it tried. More interesting is who the f*ck is buying GBP, its almost as pointless at the now dead bull market in TNX was, but is seeing some big solid money flowing in. Japs buying betty on the quiet?
  15. exactly, there is a lot of money in gold that will be needed elsewhere if/when push comes to shove. I am long term bullish on gold, but I expect a significant correction first, the timing and scale of which are totally unpredictable. Putting all your capital into one pot, especially a leveraged one has always and will always be the way to ruin in the long run.
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