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IMupNorth

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Everything posted by IMupNorth

  1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5133626.stm Looks like everything is going well and the only vessel that appears to be foundering is HMS HPC. Bearing a striking resemblance to the Titanic I believe.
  2. Do you remember those days - only a few weeks ago - when Realistbear (the most unrealistic bear ever) was the cheerleader for the 'IR must rise now' gang !!?? Noticed how he's started to change his tune - and now says IR won't raise until Gordon Brown becomes PM in feb 07 ..... ha !!! RB is just hiding behind the political smokescreen of Gordon Brown, the reality is that there is no economic reason in the UK for IRs to rise in the foreseeable future - thats why RB is predicting 8 months out into the future now. The balance of probability is that IRs will remain at 4.5% for a while yet. There is some speculation that IRs might rise by 0.25% (gee wiz) by Xmas, but the reality is that the economic stats just don't point in that direction at the moment. The BOE won't panic, have no need to panic and are really, really trying to maintain financial stability. They really don't want to raise IRs at the moment.
  3. Mmmm - pretty interesting minutes, but the key seems to be in points 34 and 35. If we watch the developments in the points that they raise in 34 and 35, then this should give us an indication of which way rates are going to go. All in all, it seems that rates are likely to remain at 4.5% for the foreseeable future and stability in the UK will continue, until something tips the balance one way or the other. So with interest rates remaining stable, employment growing, economy growing, wages growing, I think we all know that houses prices are not going to crash.
  4. Would you care to dig out the stats for Yorkshire and Humberside as a whole - perhaps you can break them down to North, West and South Yorks just out of interest. This might be a bit more revealing than cherry picking a few towns that fit your bill. And as a matter of interest, i haven't a clue about South Yorkshire, because I never look it up. So you never know RB, you might just cathc me out. Go on my son.
  5. House prices don't have to rise or fall - there is a thrid way and that is they just stay roughly where they are. That is the story of the last two years and is highly likely to continue for the next two years at least.
  6. In answer to your question - is there an economist in the house - NO !!!!!! But, you have raised a very valid point - if they thought inflation was going to be a long term problem, then they would have raised IRs a few months back, when they were already predicting it would move up. They know, that inflation is going to come back down after Xmas and that they have no need to raise IRs unless something completely unexpected comes along. So, they are going to sit and wait. If something unexpected happens, then they may raise .... but equally, the unexpected might be such that they drop rates !!! The probability is that rates will remain at 4.5% Now, add to this the fact that oil has dropped back, commodities prices have dropped back, the £ continues to firm against all our competitors. The stock market has taken a dip in the short term - all these tend to be deflationary. Oh and the BoJ has put off the need to raise its IRs. The likelyhood at the moment is that inflation will drop back faster than they were thinking, so why raise IRs, it just doesn't make sense to me. And without substantial IR rises, you won't get your house price crash. HPC and IR rise - not a snowballs chance in hell of either !
  7. Absolute cobblers again - the big long term picture is looking very rosy - the stock market bears no relation to the housing market in the short term. There again, when you are desperate to keep your spirits up, then you have to clutch at all lifelines and the stockmarket is the ONLY one you have left. Its pretty clear UK IRs are unlikely to go up and if they do, the max looks like 0.25% sometime next year. Face facts, you've lost again and you're going to be waiting a generation for your crash.
  8. For goodness sake stop looking at the charts for inspiration or salvation. Look out of the window at the real world, where the economy is doing well, there is little reason to raise interest rates and there is mega-wads of cash sloshing round the country. The 'graph' is not going to crash any time soon. We are in a new paradigm, whether you like it or not. You need to start looking at how you change your outlook on life.
  9. Couldn't resist this thread ..... If we say over the next 2 years, i think interest rates may rise to 4.75%, but currently my best prediction is for them to stay at 4.5%. 5% is bear fantasy land. We really are in a different paradigm for the foreseeable future of the next two years. Its taken a lot of thinking for me to come to this conclusion and alot of swimming against the tide on here but that is the unpalatable reality of the situation. I'm at a meeting of bankers this afternoon, I'll let you know what they think tomorrow......
  10. The reality is that the economy is doing very nicely at the moment - seems to be expanding quite fast and creating lots more wealth. Inflation is under control and we are sucking in as many immigrants as we need to keep wages under control. The picture is looking good for the BoE and Gordon Brown, whether you like it or not. That is your unfortunate reality if you are bearish. HPC and IR rise ? - not a snowballs chance in hell of either !
  11. I know this is the Hysterical Pundits Club, but the hysteria of the last couple of weeks needs to be put in context. You are all getting excited over a potential rise in IRs but it is highly unlikely there will be one. Unfortunately, all this crashing on the commodities markets will depress inflation as raw materials will be cheaper. Oil is dropping too. The pound gets ever stronger (oh may I remind you at this point that this was impossible just a couple of months ago), this helps to keep import costs down. The stockmarket correction also tends to depress inflation over the longer term too. Immigration remains high helping to control wage growth etc etc So, when you consider the full picture, it really does look like there is no need to raise IRs. This is what I think Mervyn King was saying when he says he need to be 'enlightened' and 'question all of the current received wisdom'. Whilst the rest of the world has every reason to panic, here in the UK the thing to do is not panic, and maintain the steady as she goes course. Sorry to have to piss on you bonfire again guys, but you won't see a rate rise.
  12. You sound like a man whose investments haven't crashed whilst all around you there is carnage for the men who told you were wrong for investing in boring old property. ....... ahh but I think they'll be back telling you how they all got out just in time and have now invested in some kind of 'extreme hedge fund' that will make a killing if palladium prices drop to $200.
  13. The bears are on a high today, what with stock market falls and then Kings BoE speech yesterday, they think their time has come.... unfortunately for them, I don't think it has. I think they have interpretated Kings sppech incorrectly. I suspect by Xmas, they will be sat all disappointed, slurping on their tomato soup, wishing they has bought a house two years ago. My interpretation of Kings speech is that we could well be looking at a rate cut by Xmas !!!!
  14. My hunch, based on years of watching the market do exactly the opposite of what people expect, is that the market will recover its early losses and then when the Dow opens and goes up, then the UK will follow suit. I expect the FTSE to finish somewhere between +10 and -20 from yesterday. In reality, I am completely guessing .....
  15. I think you can discount home.co.uk surveys - not because their methodology is wrong, but because their database contains an awful lot of houses that have already sold or at least gone off the market, when you actually go and look at the individual estate agents sites. This therefore makes their data set untrustworthy. Personally, the ones I take most notice of are Land Registry, ODPM and the FT one - unfortunately, they are a bit behind the times but you can't have everything. Rightmove gives an indication of direction, but not the actual figures being acheived. At the moment it still points upwards, which correlates with my own eyesight as to what is happening. The other important figure to use as a guide to whats going to happen in the future is mortgage lending figures for amount and number of loans approved. We are now entering the part of the year where house prices tend to stagnate anyway, so I am fully expecting very minor price increases from about now through to feb next year. It doesn't mean its crashing, its just seasonal effects.
  16. WTF do you have in your two bedroomed flat ?? Are you using a tumble dryer constantly or something ? My leccy bill for last qtr to mid May was £77 quid and thats for a 3 bed semi house, also with NPower.
  17. Absolute cobblers. Boom & Bust is from round my way and he like many others are witnessing a mini boom in this part of the world. Prices are rising and houses are selling well. There is lots of wealth about, and prices are affordable for the vast majority of buyers. The economic climate in the UK is improving - the flurry of stats out next week will prove this. Some people called it too early - yeah, just like most of the people on here at the moment, your years too early still. The market has a fair way to go yet. You're all banking on IRs rising - probably unlikely in the UK and if they do, we are looking at 0.25% - 0.5% at the worst. That will make diddly squat difference to affordability. I wish Boom & Bust well, in whatever he chooses to do. If he doesn't feel as though he can afford a home, then he shouldn't buy one, but he should definitely get on with life, and put the desparados and false prophets on this site into perspective. There are many, many deluded people on here, who say its going to happen soon ... but don't have the balls to quantify 'soon'. I mean soon to me means 3-6 months. To the bears, I suspect soon means 10 years, and then they will say 'well I told you it would happen 'soon'.
  18. I would tend to agree with this in principle, in the sense that an ageing population will tend to have different housing requirements in the long run. However, I don't think in practice you will see an obvious change - it will be very slow and may well be counterbalanced by the fact that all political parties, bar one, fully support massive open door immigration policies. They see that as the answer to the tax problem (short sighted baffoons IMHO). It may be that all those thousands of yuppie flats that are being built at the moment for young people in town centres, actually eventually turn into 'ideal retirement complexes' I think that house prices will stagnate in the short term and then due to demographics drift downwards in real terms over the longer term over 25 years. Personally, I don't see investing in a house as a 'pension' - BTL is fine as a business, where you are investing for the long term in many properties because at the end of the day the guy renting is buying your assets for you. It should be treated as a business just like any other business. Still can't see where or when you will get your HPC - unless of course you measure it over 25 years, in which case I don't class it as a HPC, but there again you bears must be getting desperate by now and probably would call it a crash !
  19. LMAO ..... Well on the back of one little article, RealistBear has come round to agreeing with me that IRs are not likely to rise and you might as well postpone your crash for the foreseeable future. The reality is that growth is neither too strong, nor too weak. The economy is ticking over just about perfectly. Inflation is contained and isn't about to let rip.... so why do you need to raise IRs. The BoE is trying to devalue the pound and my understanding of this is that it whats to see it at least 10% from where it is now. .... so why do you want to raise Irs. And good old RB spinning his selective pic n mix house price falls. Why doesn't he just take the big picture of say Yorkshire, rather than pick a few selective small towns where prices have fallen, which as we all know is because its based on too small a sample. The man is a fraudster.
  20. Have I neen dreaming or was the graph on the home page updated just a few days ago ?? I thought that it showed the extended flat line. Anyway, its now out of date again. Perhaps this is just another example of the bears ignoring or trying to censor the truth about house prices.
  21. After all talk and the imminent death of the dollar, US economy etc - exactly how much is the Dow down then ??? Surely anykind of decent fallout has to knock a minimum of 10% off - thats about 1100 points I think. Even then that only knocks off the last 1 years growth. So, bearing in mind what you guys are always harping on about, we've got to be looking at 2,000 points drop. Nah, not a cat in hells chance ..... surely if you guys can see it coming, you'd thing that a lot of other guys would be selling up. The fact they aren't makes me think you don't know what your talking about !!
  22. Yet another example of the old adage 'the drugs don't work' .... sober up man and take a look at the real world.
  23. Never said they would be doing it for their patriotic duty, they'll do it for their own financial gain and karhu is right, they will take the route which offers them the best gain - having a meltdown won't acheive that for as many people as having a reasonably stable ship with just an occasional wobble in order to fleece the unwary. Sorry guys but the ships not about to sink. Time will prove me right. By Xmas you will all still be saying 'its just around the corner' and it still won't be in sight.
  24. Mostly complete garbage again there RB - but why let the truth stand in the way ! 1. Fair enough, but UK rates anchored at 4.5% or 4.75% if press are to be believed and thats what counts here in the UK. 2. Sorry, but employment is increasing. 3. Affordability, as I understand it has improved marginally I grant you, but people don't appear to be struggling do they. 4. Fair enough, but you fail to mention they are still at low levels historically. Context is all importnat you know. 5. Complete garbage, prices are rising as shown by all surveys and backed up by my eyesight !! 6. What recessionary trends, their economy is heating up, hence the need for them (not us) to increase IRs to cool things down, so that growth becomes sustainable. They ain't going to have a recession. You are deliberately trying to mislead people RB. Shame on you.
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