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House Price Crash Forum


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About IMupNorth

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  1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5133626.stm Looks like everything is going well and the only vessel that appears to be foundering is HMS HPC. Bearing a striking resemblance to the Titanic I believe.
  2. Do you remember those days - only a few weeks ago - when Realistbear (the most unrealistic bear ever) was the cheerleader for the 'IR must rise now' gang !!?? Noticed how he's started to change his tune - and now says IR won't raise until Gordon Brown becomes PM in feb 07 ..... ha !!! RB is just hiding behind the political smokescreen of Gordon Brown, the reality is that there is no economic reason in the UK for IRs to rise in the foreseeable future - thats why RB is predicting 8 months out into the future now. The balance of probability is that IRs will remain at 4.5% for a while yet. There is some speculation that IRs might rise by 0.25% (gee wiz) by Xmas, but the reality is that the economic stats just don't point in that direction at the moment. The BOE won't panic, have no need to panic and are really, really trying to maintain financial stability. They really don't want to raise IRs at the moment.
  3. Mmmm - pretty interesting minutes, but the key seems to be in points 34 and 35. If we watch the developments in the points that they raise in 34 and 35, then this should give us an indication of which way rates are going to go. All in all, it seems that rates are likely to remain at 4.5% for the foreseeable future and stability in the UK will continue, until something tips the balance one way or the other. So with interest rates remaining stable, employment growing, economy growing, wages growing, I think we all know that houses prices are not going to crash.
  4. Would you care to dig out the stats for Yorkshire and Humberside as a whole - perhaps you can break them down to North, West and South Yorks just out of interest. This might be a bit more revealing than cherry picking a few towns that fit your bill. And as a matter of interest, i haven't a clue about South Yorkshire, because I never look it up. So you never know RB, you might just cathc me out. Go on my son.
  5. House prices don't have to rise or fall - there is a thrid way and that is they just stay roughly where they are. That is the story of the last two years and is highly likely to continue for the next two years at least.
  6. In answer to your question - is there an economist in the house - NO !!!!!! But, you have raised a very valid point - if they thought inflation was going to be a long term problem, then they would have raised IRs a few months back, when they were already predicting it would move up. They know, that inflation is going to come back down after Xmas and that they have no need to raise IRs unless something completely unexpected comes along. So, they are going to sit and wait. If something unexpected happens, then they may raise .... but equally, the unexpected might be such that they drop rates !!! The probability is that rates will remain at 4.5% Now, add to this the fact that oil has dropped back, commodities prices have dropped back, the £ continues to firm against all our competitors. The stock market has taken a dip in the short term - all these tend to be deflationary. Oh and the BoJ has put off the need to raise its IRs. The likelyhood at the moment is that inflation will drop back faster than they were thinking, so why raise IRs, it just doesn't make sense to me. And without substantial IR rises, you won't get your house price crash. HPC and IR rise - not a snowballs chance in hell of either !
  7. Absolute cobblers again - the big long term picture is looking very rosy - the stock market bears no relation to the housing market in the short term. There again, when you are desperate to keep your spirits up, then you have to clutch at all lifelines and the stockmarket is the ONLY one you have left. Its pretty clear UK IRs are unlikely to go up and if they do, the max looks like 0.25% sometime next year. Face facts, you've lost again and you're going to be waiting a generation for your crash.
  8. For goodness sake stop looking at the charts for inspiration or salvation. Look out of the window at the real world, where the economy is doing well, there is little reason to raise interest rates and there is mega-wads of cash sloshing round the country. The 'graph' is not going to crash any time soon. We are in a new paradigm, whether you like it or not. You need to start looking at how you change your outlook on life.
  9. Couldn't resist this thread ..... If we say over the next 2 years, i think interest rates may rise to 4.75%, but currently my best prediction is for them to stay at 4.5%. 5% is bear fantasy land. We really are in a different paradigm for the foreseeable future of the next two years. Its taken a lot of thinking for me to come to this conclusion and alot of swimming against the tide on here but that is the unpalatable reality of the situation. I'm at a meeting of bankers this afternoon, I'll let you know what they think tomorrow......
  10. The reality is that the economy is doing very nicely at the moment - seems to be expanding quite fast and creating lots more wealth. Inflation is under control and we are sucking in as many immigrants as we need to keep wages under control. The picture is looking good for the BoE and Gordon Brown, whether you like it or not. That is your unfortunate reality if you are bearish. HPC and IR rise ? - not a snowballs chance in hell of either !
  11. I know this is the Hysterical Pundits Club, but the hysteria of the last couple of weeks needs to be put in context. You are all getting excited over a potential rise in IRs but it is highly unlikely there will be one. Unfortunately, all this crashing on the commodities markets will depress inflation as raw materials will be cheaper. Oil is dropping too. The pound gets ever stronger (oh may I remind you at this point that this was impossible just a couple of months ago), this helps to keep import costs down. The stockmarket correction also tends to depress inflation over the longer term too. Immigration remains high helping to control wage growth etc etc So, when you consider the full picture, it really does look like there is no need to raise IRs. This is what I think Mervyn King was saying when he says he need to be 'enlightened' and 'question all of the current received wisdom'. Whilst the rest of the world has every reason to panic, here in the UK the thing to do is not panic, and maintain the steady as she goes course. Sorry to have to piss on you bonfire again guys, but you won't see a rate rise.
  12. You sound like a man whose investments haven't crashed whilst all around you there is carnage for the men who told you were wrong for investing in boring old property. ....... ahh but I think they'll be back telling you how they all got out just in time and have now invested in some kind of 'extreme hedge fund' that will make a killing if palladium prices drop to $200.
  13. The bears are on a high today, what with stock market falls and then Kings BoE speech yesterday, they think their time has come.... unfortunately for them, I don't think it has. I think they have interpretated Kings sppech incorrectly. I suspect by Xmas, they will be sat all disappointed, slurping on their tomato soup, wishing they has bought a house two years ago. My interpretation of Kings speech is that we could well be looking at a rate cut by Xmas !!!!
  14. My hunch, based on years of watching the market do exactly the opposite of what people expect, is that the market will recover its early losses and then when the Dow opens and goes up, then the UK will follow suit. I expect the FTSE to finish somewhere between +10 and -20 from yesterday. In reality, I am completely guessing .....
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