Levy process

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/080213-titan-oil.html

This has all been priced in. Nothing to see here.

The most telling thing to me is that in the space of 4 months, the "dark" red bit of the fan has a lower bound roughly equal to the upper bound in the older prediction. So in 4 months, the zone of liklihood has moved so far that it almost has no overlap. I conclude that their model is BALLOCKS.

More funding constraints is lower demand. Demand is a compound of desire and ability to pay. More funding constraints=less ability to pay=lower demand. It's the same thing. End of.

This is probably an anectdotal, but anyway, I've been monitoring central London shop sales on my walk to work over the last couple of months. The sort of shops I'm talking about are posh clothes shops, and high class goods. Back in January, they all had the expected huge sale signs in their windows, albeit offering a surprising 70% off in some cases. What seems unusual this year is that the signs continued on and on for weeks, saying "final reductions", and being replaced with new signs in following weeks saying "final clearance", "great final reductions" etc. I laughed out loud this morning as I walked past one of the shops; at first I thought "ah, the sale signs have finally gone". But no, in the corner of one window was a medium sized sign proclaiming "sale continues instore". Hasn't this been going on rather long this year, or is it just me?

Yep. It has the same levels of public sector non-job employment as Eastern European countries had under communism. And it's funded by the English tax payer. PS. Don't bother to start the Scottish oil ballocks as a reply.

Calm down.

The seasonally adjusted figures are low. This isn't just what happens in the winter. But you know that. You know it is crashing.

I agree to an extent, but once they've had the stress of a collapse in household finances, and either experienced joblessness directly or by proxy through friends and relatives, they'll get with the programme.

That's absolutely correct. And the Tories teed the economy up perfectly, and then Labour was elected. They then enjoyed the fruits of the economy they inherited, and made it look like all their own work by stepping on the gas of government borrowing and a public sector spending pump priming spree. So what we need is for the collapse to be well underway and evident by 2010. Fortunately, it is already! So there won't be any mistakes made as to who wrecked everything.

Yep, that oughta do it! BWA HA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

They're getting with the program!

The Tories will replace them, in approximately 2010, and will be in power for at approximately 15 years after that at least, I would predict. The Tories are doing an excellent job. They are playing a very careful game, because they want to be absolutely sure of not getting into power before 2010, because they want the true magnitude of the economic disaster caused by Labour to be fully evident before taking power. We'll have an era from about 2010 to 2017 where the Tories in power will be able to dismiss any criticism by pointing out that it was Labour that wrecked the economy. By then they will have been able to rectify the worst of the damage. Then we'll have a couple of terms of prosperity under the Tories. After that, it's all a matter of whether people become hypnotised by the socialists again or not. People have short memories....

Sure! Look how much attention it's got on here! That's gonna sell papers, get viewers etc. Journalists only don't get paid if nobody cares what they write.

Dogbox, the 0.25% cut won't make any difference. The crash is on. You know it. Everyone knows it. Give over.