Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
IMupNorth

So, Why Are Prices Still Rising ?

Recommended Posts

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

Because the VI's are using biased reporting?

Because the transactions are so low, that only the 'herd' who believe the VI bulls*** are buying? The last mugs!

Take your pick!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

Funny how we're always being accused of picking & choosing our statistics - seems to me that it's the VI's who are doing this more that anyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps you should first explain why Nationwide has them falling,

so we can see what you think is a sensible statement

The trend across all the surveys, as you well know, is upwards thats why the 12 month averages are all +ve expect Hometrack, which is likely to go +ve in the next month or two.

Now ask me a better question that is harder to answer.

:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

How about this "amazing answer" from the Halifax report

The mixed pattern of monthly price rises and falls is a typical feature of a slower housing market.
UK house prices are forecast to rise by 3% in 2006, broadly in line with the predicted rise in retail price inflation.

i.e. that is not to rise at all in real terms if you believe the RPI. Or drop in real terms if you look at what's really happening to inflation... which oh the Halifax happened to comment on (oops BBC forgot this bit I wonder how)...

Separate research released by Halifax today, based on the latest ONS data, shows that the cost of owning and running a house increased by 7% in the financial year 2004/05, more than three times the rate of CPI inflation.

Does that satisfy your royal smugness?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The trend across all the surveys, as you well know, is upwards thats why the 12 month averages are all +ve expect Hometrack, which is likely to go +ve in the next month or two.

Now ask me a better question that is harder to answer.

:D

Yeh but theres a poster on here who says he knows someone who's flat in walthamstow has been valued 15k less than last year which means that all your stats are rubbish and there realy is a HPC :lol::lol::lol::lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because the VI's are using biased reporting?

Because the transactions are so low, that only the 'herd' who believe the VI bulls*** are buying? The last mugs!

Take your pick!

Well, I'll agree with you, they do spin it well, but they aren't the only one's guilty of that.

But, define 'transactions are so low' - whats low exactly ?

The reason I ask is that transactions are at about a normal level and in fact have been creeping up in the last 6 months - go see Land Registry. I'm afraid the 'transactions are low' is just a myth being put about by some of the lunatic fringe on here. Please do not believe them, go and research for yourself and come to an independent point of view.

If you do this you will very rapidly realise why we have no HPC on our hands - you are being fed a lot of misguided information if you believe everything you read on here. Don't necessarily believe me either, but please go and research for yourself and make your own mind up.

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

Boom, bust who knows? At the moment on the BBC Business News website is says "House prices 'still picking up'" with a related news story saying "Nationwide sees house prices dip" So which is it boom or bust?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

I haven't called a generalised house price crash yet.

But I believe that the prices are rising in places because people believe they will rise. People selling ask for more because they think that they are rising. People buying are prepared to pay high prices because they believe that either there is no alternative and things will be worse later on, or because they believe that the property can be sold for a good worthwhile profit later on. As long as people believe this, prices will keep rising.

A belief that house prices are seriously overvalued and a correction must come sometime can be completely consistent with a belief that house prices are still going up.

Billy Shears

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

Movedownsouth!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm afraid the 'transactions are low' is just a myth being put about by some of the lunatic fringe on here.

So are the Halifax part of the lunatic fringe;

slower housing market

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/Ho...ndexFeb2006.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahhhhh grasshopper

The wise man says that each Jenga brick removed is a step towards disaster.

The foolish man says that each Jenqa brick removed is further proof that the crash is fiction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

House next door to me has gone up for sale for an asking price 5K less than the

last house to sell on our street according to nethouseprice. Presuming it goes for 95% of

asking thats 10K down in a year. Only been for sale 2 weeks but hasnt been snapped up yet

as plenty more cheaper in the area.

So dont know where these prices are rising but it aint around here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You might also want to consider some of the salient points in the nationwide Feb report;

“There are two reasons why the pickup in activity this spring may not turn out to be strong. Firstly,

many first-time buyers continue to be priced out of the market. Secondly, uncertainty about the

strength of the economy may lead to the delay of some house purchase decisions. A complicating factor is that buy-to-let investors seem to have been behind some of the increase in recent activity."

The house price of cards is being held up by people BTL'ing at the bottom whether as an investment or as a necessity in order to move. Is this sustainable do you think? Personally I don't think so, and I don't think the Nationwide or Halifax think so either. Read their full reports instead of the NuLabour sanitised versions the Beeb pops up with and you'll see what I mean.

Edited by DoubleBubbleTrouble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahhhhh grasshopper

The wise man says that each Jenga brick removed is a step towards disaster.

The foolish man says that each Jenqa brick removed is further proof that the crash is fiction.

Ahh, blind man who see's all,

you are very philosophical and have great wisdom, BUT WE AIN'T PLAYING JENGA !!!!!!!!

Get your cataracts seen to for Gods sake !

:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't necessarily believe me either, but please go and research for yourself and make your own mind up.

:)

I have done, and I firmly believe house prices will be 10-30% cheaper within 4 years, and I am prepared to wait it out!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

because the housing market is cyclical, people save money then buy in bulk, every spring there is a bounce, if there isnt some sellers remain, from the stats you can see these short term cycles, and you can see the cycles deminishing, these cycles also existed throughout the last crash. The Qtr on Qtr data suggests we are going to see another small increase..

The data does shows an astonishing slowdown

Edited by moosetea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't believe how much credence some people give these VI reports. Everybody knows you can say whatever you want with statistics. Does anybosdy reading this know what thwe stats mean? How they are compiled? How they are 'adjusted'? Unless you have all the answers you might as well pop into you local EA and ask if it's a good time to buy a house.

Edited by othello

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You might also want to consider some of the salient points in the nationwide Feb report;

The house price of cards is being held up by people BTL'ing at the bottom whether as an investment or as a necessity in order to move. Is this sustainable do you think? Personally I don't think so, and I don't think the Nationwide or Halifax think so either. Read their full reports instead of the NuLabour sanitised versions the Beeb pops up with and you'll see what I mean.

It's funny why you think I don't read the reports in full - I can read and I do read them and everything else, I do my own research and try and work things out for myself.

As for the BBC - well never believe anything they tell you and NuLabour I hate with a passion that you just cannot imagine ! So we do have some things in common.

I think BTL equates to about 8% of sales if my memory serves me correctly - so whose buying the other 92% of houses ? Its sustainable whilst IRs rates stay at 4.5% - once they go to 5.5%, they I'll reconsider - but when is that going to happen may I ask ?

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now, I think I understand why prices are rising, but I'm considered by many on here to be bullish.

Personally, I think I'm just a realist and would be more than happy to call a crash if I saw any evidence of one ........ but there is no evidence of one on the horizon.

However, just interested to know how you bears explain away these price rises ?

Many of you seem to stick your head above the parapet on a regular basis with family, friends and colleagues, telling them the market is crashing. So you must be all feeling pretty foolish again, or do you have some amazing answer to why prices are rising - just interesetd to know thats all.

:)

Ohhh yes thay will keep rising at 1.4% per month for ever and ever

If the average house cost £173,498 now it will cost £202645 next year.

£236690 the year after that, and £276454 in 2009.

Ps . the average wage will 10% higher in 2009 than it is now.

….give your head a shake mate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reason why the market is crashing? Well I wouldn't say it is crashing yet. But the turnover of sales (for the whole year) explains alot:

2005 vs 2004 - Down 17.22%

2005 vs 2003 - Down 15.04%

2005 vs 2002 - Down 21.70%

Info from the Land Registry

Edited by Jason

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's funny why you think I don't read the reports in full - I can read and I do read them and everything else, I do my own research and try and work things out for myself.

Well the fact you were disputing it was a slow market when all the major players have been pointing out that it is kind of got me thinking you weren't paying that much attention :unsure:

I think BTL equates to about 8% of sales if my memory serves me correctly - so whose buying the other 92% of houses ? Its sustainable whilst IRs rates stay at 4.5% - once they go to 5.5%, they I'll reconsider - but when is that going to happen may I ask ?

It's a hierarchical market and all of the BTL's are happening at the bottom where the regular buyers are woefully priced out. Until the BTL's bugger off things will hover as they are, when they do prices will drop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Imupnorth - When i read your posts you are so full of doom and gloom - we won't see the crash till after it has happened - i think it's happening now. I get the impression that because it hasn't happened yet you think it will never happen. Snap yourself out of this delusion, and cheer up! I live up in the North, and i am not seeing good news for house prices (Harrogate/Skipton down) - it can only go down. Things are not moving like they were - look at the comparison to two years ago - they were selling like hot cakes - it's going to happen. We've been stitched up for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do my own research and try and work things out for myself.

As do I .... using data obtained from RightMove's website (with their permission), approx. 40,000 properties in Cheshire. Its quite an interesting picture at the moment. The mean average asking price fell between mid November 2005 and mid Jan 2006 by about £4k, and as at beginning March recovered about £2k of that reduction.

But the median asking price has fallen almost £3k between November 2005 and now and hasn't gone back up again. The number of properties in this sample area has increased by 6,000+ in the same period.

I'm not an expert statistician by any means (someone help me here), but this suggests to me that the asking price of a typical house has not gone up (in fact its fallen a little), but its the sheer number of properties put on the market at the upper end that has increased the mean average asking price.

Confused .... ? Me too :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you do this you will very rapidly realise why we have no HPC on our hands - you are being fed a lot of misguided information if you believe everything you read on here. Don't necessarily believe me either, but please go and research for yourself and make your own mind up.

Imupnorth is an ****, granted, and he is very wrong about prices and volumes falling in the North (and NW) and the effect rate rises will have....

...BUT he has a salient point (quoted).

Read some of RealistBears pronouncements - its enough to make you slit your wrists.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.