mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 3 minutes ago, fellow said: Erm no the Count never said that. The whole point of his index was to cut through the Righmove guff, otherwise why would he bother? I thought you were better than trolling and insults TBH. Something has hit a nerve with you recently? I firmly remember him saying that. If you think the index with reductions is signifcanly different, isn't that something you should quantify, before repeating it ad nauseum in a fit of cope. As for insults I reply exactly in kind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Asking prices increase, number of sales continues to drop... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Fits with what I saw on my personal 'index' for London. Median, ppsqft, geometric mean all rising recently. I wasn't sure if the numbers were right, but interesting that RM say similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Locke Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 May or may not be significant. If people in general are putting up more expensive houses to sell, then the asking prices will rise, even if the sale price of any given house within that cohort is actually lower than would be expected based on price history (i.e. a fall). It's like if people stopped trying to sell normal vehicles, and only luxury or classic cars were being sold, the average car price would appear to rise, but that says nothing about the actual price of a car- high or low end. 3 hours ago, Timm said: And yet sales are up by a greater percentage than listings are up: "The number of new sellers in this sector is up by 18 per cent compared to this time last year, and the number of sales agreed is up 20 per cent." Without the absolute figures, these percentage numbers are meaningless. If 100k house are listed each month and 20k change hands, then a 10% rise in listings is still 2.5x greater than a 20% rise in sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 (edited) 18 minutes ago, mynamehere said: I firmly remember him saying that. If you think the index with reductions is signifcanly different, isn't that something you should quantify, before repeating it ad nauseum in a fit of cope. As for insults I reply exactly in kind I remember exactly what he said, that the trend showing on his PL figures followed a similar pattern to the NW figures, thus validating them as a leading indicator of future sold prices. It's quite obvious to anyone that RM figures would be significantly different with price reductions included., hence the whole point of the PL index. Edited April 22 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 5 minutes ago, fellow said: I remember exactly what he said, that the trend showing on his PL figures followed a similar pattern to the NW figures, thus validating them as a leading indicator of future sold prices. It's quite obvious to anyone that RM figures would be significantly different with price reductions included., hence the whole point of the PL index. If it's so obvious, quantify it, how signigicantly different? 1%, 10%? From what part of the body are you pulling the number from, the head or some other part? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 (edited) 2 minutes ago, mynamehere said: If it's so obvious, quantify it, how signigicantly different? 1%, 10%? From what part of the body are you pulling the number from, the head or some other part? Now I remember why The Count blocked you. You're the one that mentioned it FFS. Edited April 22 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 5 minutes ago, fellow said: Now I remember why The Count blocked you. You're the one that mentioned it FFS. I called out his BS and I'll call out yours too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Mortgage business must be tanking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 21 minutes ago, Sackboii said: Mortgage business must be tanking. No need to guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 1 minute ago, mynamehere said: No need to guess Source of data ? ONS ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, fellow said: Exactly. The seller / EA optimism was based entirely on the false assumption that mortgage rates would be slashed in ythe Spring / Summer, making prices shoot up. The reality is now feeding through that the opposite is the case. The pound is falling because the BoE has stated that they don't need more evidence of infaltion falling before they start cutting rates.......... Rate will be lower by the end of the year unless there's some crazy event. Russia needs to sell oil to fund the war. Iran has broken records for oil exports recently. Energy and feedstock chemicals are falling. Inflation seems to be behind us. Rates will fall and those wage rises will stay. Sadly, it means only one thing for the direction of house prices unless tighter rules are placed on lending. For me that's an election winner. Simply lowering max loan multiples would take the wind out of price increases, as would taxing second and third homes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 27 minutes ago, Sackboii said: Source of data ? ONS ? https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2024/february-2024 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pablo Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sackboii said: Mortgage business must be tanking. I am afraid to say, it seems to have had a decent uptick in March after the BOE suggested rates were more likely to drop. I think it's a combination of softening of house prices, with the sentiment that rates won't be as high as today (although I suspect some people are expecting it to go MUCH lower, which in my opinion it won't, it will get better but not to the rates of old). My broker ended up being called in from his easter break due to the level of demand, so he had to work through the weekend. That is a "one off" example but given I was already in "process", he had little incentive to lie. Edited April 22 by Pablo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) Too much money sloshing about after years of ZIRP, QE, etc. Even dimwits are making loads of money out of joke meme coins and crypto these days (look at all the expensive cars on the roads). Stock markets at all time highs, the lunacy continues. Edited April 22 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 7 minutes ago, simon99 said: Too much money sloshing about after years of ZIRP, QE, etc. Even dimwits are making loads of money out of joke meme coins and crypto these days. Stock markets at all time highs, the lunacy continues. The fundamental mistake was not raising interest rates high enough. Bailey will end up cutting and inflation will roar again. People are putting their money into the stock market before it waves them a big goodbye. Everyone (including Bailey himself) is completely ignoring what Megan Greene has to say. Edited April 22 by Dreamcasting spelling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 29 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: The fundamental mistake was not raising interest rates high enough. Bailey will end up cutting and inflation will roar again. People are putting their money into the stock market before it waves them a big goodbye. Everyone (including Bailey himself) is completely ignoring what Megan Greene has to say. Inflation won't be coming back. Interest rates are getting hacked this year and are going back to their new Zirp normal afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Stewy said: Inflation won't be coming back. Interest rates are getting hacked this year and are going back to their new Zirp normal afterwards. Zirp is anything but normal. No, they are heading to around 4.25%. Inflation will start back up again, as will house prices. Edited April 22 by Dreamcasting edit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 12 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: Zirp is anything but normal. No, they are heading to around 4.25%. Inflation will start back up again, as will house prices. Interest rates were on a decadal downward trend, and it was only a so-called pandemic, furlough money-printing, a ruptured gas pipeline and a worst-ever energy crisis that led to a bout of mild inflation and higher interest rates. We're going swiftly back to the decadal downward trend in interest rates, unless they invent another new crisis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 6 minutes ago, Stewy said: Interest rates were on a decadal downward trend, and it was only a so-called pandemic, furlough money-printing, a ruptured gas pipeline and a worst-ever energy crisis that led to a bout of mild inflation and higher interest rates. We're going swiftly back to the decadal downward trend in interest rates, unless they invent another new crisis. Circa 4.25% is the new 0%. So you're right and wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 (edited) If we've learnt anything through this wild period, is it's pointless trying to predict the future. All we know is what's happened. And asking prices is about the least laggy indicator we have. Inflation largely depends on ukraine vs Russia. Markets seem to be pricing a resolution to that conflict. Could easily go a different way Edited April 22 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, mynamehere said: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2024/february-2024 Still lower than at any time since 2015/16 then (bar COVID of course). Approaching (but still a way to go) the 2015-2020 average. The next few months will be telling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 4 minutes ago, Sackboii said: Still lower than at any time since 2015/16 then (bar COVID of course). Approaching (but still a way to go) the 2015-2020 average. The next few months will be telling. Still higher than any time since truss. Phone definitely busier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AThirdWay Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 2 hours ago, Unmoderated said: The pound is falling because the BoE has stated that they don't need more evidence of infaltion falling before they start cutting rates.......... Rate will be lower by the end of the year unless there's some crazy event. Russia needs to sell oil to fund the war. Iran has broken records for oil exports recently. Energy and feedstock chemicals are falling. Inflation seems to be behind us. Rates will fall and those wage rises will stay. Sadly, it means only one thing for the direction of house prices unless tighter rules are placed on lending. For me that's an election winner. Simply lowering max loan multiples would take the wind out of price increases, as would taxing second and third homes. Ahem! https://news.sky.com/story/money-latest-consumer-personal-finance-mortgages-13040934 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 44 minutes ago, Stewy said: unless they invent another new crisis. The Ukraine War is over? The Zionist entity has stopped murdering Palestinians? The United States has stopped borrowing $1 trillion every quarter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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