Tony_Teacake Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 8 hours ago, Huggy said: What is not delusion: 460,000 people have come off their sucker rates this year already and are now experiencing what the word 'normal' means wrt interest rates. Joining them are 4,000 people today. Same again tomorrow, and the next day, and the next.... Well said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 6 minutes ago, zugzwang said: The Ukraine War is over? The Zionist entity has stopped murdering Palestinians? The United States has stopped borrowing $1 trillion every quarter? No two wars are the same. There's no reason Israel's conflict should contribute to any inflation (unlike when we cut ourselves off from cheap Russian gas). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamcasting Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 8 minutes ago, zugzwang said: The Ukraine War is over? The Zionist entity has stopped murdering Palestinians? The United States has stopped borrowing $1 trillion every quarter? That $1T is just a meaningless number to them. In fact, i'd wager that when $1T isn't enough, it'll be raised to $2T, then $3T and so on. People will be posting on the internet in 10 years from now saying "by god, the US is borrowing $20T every quarter. This won't end well". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 59 minutes ago, Stewy said: mild inflation You really are a joker aren't you. So many things have increased well over 30% and more since 2019. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 6 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said: You really are a joker aren't you. So many things have increased well over 30% and more since 2019. And many have increased by under 30% in those five years. That is historically very mild inflation. ✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 9 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said: That $1T is just a meaningless number to them. In fact, i'd wager that when $1T isn't enough, it'll be raised to $2T, then $3T and so on. People will be posting on the internet in 10 years from now saying "by god, the US is borrowing $20T every quarter. This won't end well". The logic of every Ponzi scheme is exponential growth! But as enormous and incomprehensible as these figures are they barely scratch the surface of US credit creation where every govt dollar is leveraged and multiplied through the offshore shadow banking system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 3 hours ago, AThirdWay said: Ahem! https://news.sky.com/story/money-latest-consumer-personal-finance-mortgages-13040934 Ahem! 0.1% 'hike'. 'HIKE!' 🤣 The pound is down because they've openly stated they're going to be cutting rates. Yeah, maybe we get ERPT inflation (for a year max). Maybe we don't. We're top of the cycle. Wages have broadly kept up. Deal in certainty. Deal in reality. Deal with it. It's a shame houses are not more affordable but no amount of wishing for it will improve your lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 22 Author Share Posted April 22 4 hours ago, mynamehere said: Still higher than any time since truss. Phone definitely busier Is this an admission you're a housing industry VI? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 18 minutes ago, fellow said: Is this an admission you're a housing industry VI? Was it ever in any doubt?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AThirdWay Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 1 hour ago, Unmoderated said: Ahem! 0.1% 'hike'. 'HIKE!' 🤣 The pound is down because they've openly stated they're going to be cutting rates. Yeah, maybe we get ERPT inflation (for a year max). Maybe we don't. We're top of the cycle. Wages have broadly kept up. Deal in certainty. Deal in reality. Deal with it. It's a shame houses are not more affordable but no amount of wishing for it will improve your lot. You and Stewy, curiously in lockstep, predicted lower interest rates going forward... Egg, face covered! 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 12 hours ago, nero120 said: Was it ever in any doubt?! No doubt he definitely has a vestested interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHPCinTheUK Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 He’s a mortgage broker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 12 hours ago, fellow said: Is this an admission you're a housing industry VI? Why would it matter what job they had? They’re either right or they’re not, and it speaks more about you and the others who’ve posted above that you have nothing to say other than VI estate agent mortgage broker blah blah blah. It’s the surest sign of someone losing an argument / position when all they can offer is seeking to discredit with a strawman argument. What @Unmoderated has posted is the current truth. Wages have grown, the housing market has so far shrugged off higher rates and there has been no crash. What you wish would happen and reality are two very different things. Reminds me of @nero120 posting jubilantly two years ago about planning the HPC party due to a once in a millennium perfect storm that ‘will stomp on property prices’ rapidly. Oh look, there he is above posting about VI’s. A number of you just don’t get it do you? You’ve got your heads so buried in this echo chamber that you are unable to tolerate any view that opposes what you’ve spouted for years / decades. All you can do is come here and chuck crap like estate agent and mortgage broker around as deep down you know how catastrophically wrong you’ve been all these years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 minute ago, Quid Game said: Why would it matter what job they had? They’re either right or they’re not, and it speaks more about you and the others who’ve posted above that you have nothing to say other than VI estate agent mortgage broker blah blah blah. It’s the surest sign of someone losing an argument / position when all they can offer is seeking to discredit with a strawman argument. What @Unmoderated has posted is the current truth. Wages have grown, the housing market has so far shrugged off higher rates and there has been no crash. What you wish would happen and reality are two very different things. Reminds me of @nero120 posting jubilantly two years ago about planning the HPC party due to a once in a millennium perfect storm that ‘will stomp on property prices’ rapidly. Oh look, there he is above posting about VI’s. A number of you just don’t get it do you? You’ve got your heads so buried in this echo chamber that you are unable to tolerate any view that opposes what you’ve spouted for years / decades. All you can do is come here and chuck crap like estate agent and mortgage broker around as deep down you know how catastrophically wrong you’ve been all these years. Yet all the evidence speaks to the contrary. Thick-as-sh1t sellers might be as deluded as ever asking for stupid, undeserved amounts, but numbers of actual transactions are bumping along all time lows whilst real wages continue to sink lower and credit gets tighter. Even in St Albans (one of the most affluent and desirable places to live in the country) I can see houses are not selling for what they were 1-2 years ago. Admittedly, the British establishment and their little robot-sheep flock are doing their best not to admit any of this, and indeed fight it, but the tide is inexorably rising and you're all starting to drown... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Mortgage brokers don’t have a vested interest in price that’s the funny thing about it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHPCinTheUK Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 8 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Mortgage brokers don’t have a vested interest in price that’s the funny thing about it Mortgage brokers have a vested interest in selling their products and they need to find the right narrative to sell buyers their product in this market. The narrative here at the moment is “buy now we will renew at a lower rate in 2y, just a little effort that would suck more than 50% of your income now, but don’t worry things will improve”. If the narrative would have been IRs are going to be high now and never going back down you would probably get 0 business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: The narrative here at the moment is “buy now we will renew at a lower rate in 2y, just a little effort that would suck more than 50% of your income now, but don’t worry things will improve”. When rates have been totally hacked within two years, the market will be at the races again. Those tasty fixed ISAs will be plundered. With a new political party likely spreading Blairite optimism... The smart money is buying while the Plateau still holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 6 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: Mortgage brokers have a vested interest in selling their products and they need to find the right narrative to sell buyers their product in this market. The narrative here at the moment is “buy now we will renew at a lower rate in 2y, just a little effort that would suck more than 50% of your income now, but don’t worry things will improve”. If the narrative would have been IRs are going to be high now and never going back down you would probably get 0 business. Sounds like we are in agreement mortgage brokers don't have a vested interest in prices going up? Lower prices means higher volume as a general rule. Look at any chart of house price vs volume. As for your point about rate forecasting, for most 1st time buyers, it's more about whether to go for a 2yr or a 5y. Not whether to buy or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHPCinTheUK Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 (edited) 55 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Sounds like we are in agreement mortgage brokers don't have a vested interest in prices going up? Lower prices means higher volume as a general rule. Look at any chart of house price vs volume. As for your point about rate forecasting, for most 1st time buyers, it's more about whether to go for a 2yr or a 5y. Not whether to buy or not. Lower prices doesn’t mean higher volumes. And it’s open to debate whether higher volumes would equal higher revenues and profits. I am looking at the charts and I am seeing a collapse in prices AND volumes in 2008-2009. You’re a mortgage broker, you’re not selling insurances. In order to sell, like in the equity market, you need to have buyers and buyers only buy if they think prices are going to go up. How many clients would you have if they were told that in 2/3/4/5 y time they will have to renew 2/3pc higher? So yes, your vested interest is to paint the picture of a never ending HPI. As a start, I would make it illegal for an EA to have their own in-house mortgage broker or even worse a commercial agreement with several brokers. Your interests are not aligned with those of the buyers. Never were and never will. What are you going to say to your clients when in 2/5y time they will have to renew at the same rates, or even higher vs what they’re paying now? Also bearing in mind you’ve sold them a product through which they’ve paid peanuts towards their equity slice. Edited April 23 by NoHPCinTheUK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, nero120 said: Yet all the evidence speaks to the contrary. Thick-as-sh1t sellers might be as deluded as ever asking for stupid, undeserved amounts, but numbers of actual transactions are bumping along all time lows whilst real wages continue to sink lower and credit gets tighter. Even in St Albans (one of the most affluent and desirable places to live in the country) I can see houses are not selling for what they were 1-2 years ago. Admittedly, the British establishment and their little robot-sheep flock are doing their best not to admit any of this, and indeed fight it, but the tide is inexorably rising and you're all starting to drown... Cool, but the irony of you posting about thick as sh!t sellers whilst simultaneously posting about imminent once in a millennium crashes and impending mega doom repeatedly isn’t lost on me. Is it lost on you? Not exactly aced the last decade of predictions yourself and as things stand currently there have been many thick as sh!t sellers who’ve walked off into the sunset with huge gains. As for St Albans, I’ll have to take your word for it. You do realise that posting relentlessly about a crash for decades has more than a hint of ‘robot sheep flock’ about it too? The huge crash position has got so indefensible that even the count of nowhere gave up. You do you. I strongly suspect you’ll not get what you want, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the exact opposite happens infact for the back end of this decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 59 minutes ago, mynamehere said: Sounds like we are in agreement mortgage brokers don't have a vested interest in prices going up? Lower prices means higher volume as a general rule. Look at any chart of house price vs volume. As for your point about rate forecasting, for most 1st time buyers, it's more about whether to go for a 2yr or a 5y. Not whether to buy or not. Just out of interest, do mortgage brokers/advisors get commission on the number of mortgages they sell, or on the amount of the sold mortgages, or both ? What is the mechanism ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quid Game Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 2 minutes ago, Sackboii said: Just out of interest, do mortgage brokers/advisors get commission on the number of mortgages they sell, or on the amount of the sold mortgages, or both ? What is the mechanism ? In that not exactly the same thing? Mortgages they sell or mortgages sold? What have I missed? A broker gets a commission on completion of the mortgage. Ours got £1500 roughly I think from memory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sackboii Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 minutes ago, Quid Game said: In that not exactly the same thing? Mortgages they sell or mortgages sold? What have I missed? A broker gets a commission on completion of the mortgage. Ours got £1500 roughly I think from memory. No it's not exactly the same thing. If a broker sells one mortgage of one million pounds, does he get £1,500 commission ? If a broker sells one hundred mortgages of £100k, does he get £1,500 commission for each one ? If a broker sells hundreds of mortgages, does he get a commission based on the total value of those mortgages sold, with perhaps several breakpoints/thresholds thereby giving him targets to try and reach ? Does this then make him sell more aggressively to reach those targets ? Intrigued as to how it works. Doesn't bother me either way as I am buying with cash. ✔️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 15 hours ago, Unmoderated said: Ahem! 0.1% 'hike'. 'HIKE!' 🤣 The pound is down because they've openly stated they're going to be cutting rates. Yeah, maybe we get ERPT inflation (for a year max). Maybe we don't. We're top of the cycle. Wages have broadly kept up. Deal in certainty. Deal in reality. Deal with it. It's a shame houses are not more affordable but no amount of wishing for it will improve your lot. Bailey is doing a good job of talking himself out of being able to cut rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 14 hours ago, fellow said: Is this an admission you're a housing industry VI? That would explain why he doesn't like or want to believe in my assertion that houses being a top investment choice for the wealthier part of society is likely coming to an end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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