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Pablo

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  1. SE London is very different, about 4-5 properties coming on each day. Only properties on the very best roads are going, they are doing the whole 15-20 viewings in day here but the properties are still there 1-2 weeks later. Only one property has gone on the listing weekend but that was on the very best road in the area where it was such a rare listing that people would almost pay anything. 95% of properties are coming on at about their March 2021 asking price values, 1 or 2 are about £5-15k higher (but on £1.2-1.5m houses) and still not sold. There was one example where someone listed and SSTC at £1m before Xmas, that sale fell through and is now asking £1.2m with an open day this weekend. There is absolutely no way that will go, unless it's a naive to area buyer who doesn't spot there is a big value difference between two postcodes/previously sold prices. So no real pressure here. I am personally expecting cost of living, sentiment, increased mortgage costs e.t.c dragging the market down. All this supposed frenetic demand that even my local agents talk about, just isn't converting into SSTC and it will only get worse.
  2. Yep absolutely stacks of those, our rent would have been 2350 when we moved it but moved in Dec at 2100. Now it's £1600. Not far from St John's wood
  3. How far west are you? Rents definitely fallen in expensive parts of Zone 2
  4. My rent in a very nice part of West London is down 25%, the landlord barely put up a fight when he saw all the local property at the new levels.
  5. Henry was forecasting falls in q4 2020 before the stamp duty bung, he isn't an overt bull is he?
  6. I am on the look out but seeing lots of variance across London and out of London Flats have fallen from the mid end, typically down from a £620k at peak to about £535k, and still sitting there. Then I have been looking around areas like Beckenham and down the thameslink towards Redhill, Beckenham is more resilient but other areas have fallen back substantially to 2014-2016 numbers. Which does mean £2-300k savings from peak on £1m+ . Some houseprices.io examples... where property sells for what it did about 4 years ago but losing money due to inflation/stamp duty/fees e.t.c e.g W11 in London I notice that quite a lot of the drops that come through aren't necessarily below what the owners paid but on the money or within 10% of what they paid 4-7years ago. This is quite a shift given the huge 'on paper' gains just 2 years ago. Date Price Nominal change Real change 02 Aug 2019 £1,500,000 0.0% -11.0% 03 Sep 2015 £1,500,000 140.0% 118.3% Then we have just 70k over 2011 prices ! W11 in London Date Price Nominal change Real change 29 Jul 2019 £740,000 10.5% -12.6% 31 Jan 2011 £670,000 55.8% 27.1% 45k over 2008 Date Price Nominal change Real change 30 May 2019 £345,000 15.0% -16.6% 31 Jan 2008 £300,000 180.4% 119.7% 21 Dec 1998 £107,000 n/a n/a
  7. I thought that was the case....but it's not ! It's was a maisonette and still is... https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=57753508&sale=83685417&country=england
  8. There's loads of massive falls all over London. Back to 2008/2009 numbers e.g. Flat 5, 4, Little Green, Richmond, Greater London TW9 1QH £1,175,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 11 Dec 2018 £1,300,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 30 Nov 2010 £1,100,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 07 Mar 2007 Second example: below 2011 with inflation, and probably 2012/13 value if looking at face value Address: Flat 4, 17 Aldridge Road Villas, London, W11 1BL Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation 03 Dec 2018 £1,245,000 13.2% -5.7% 30 Sep 2011 £1,100,000 249.2% 176.8% Third example is below 2012 at face value and closer to 20% down on 2012 with inflation Flat 1, 25 Elgin Crescent, London, W11 2JD Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation 02 Nov 2018 £1,800,000 -8.2% -21.2% 10 Sep 2012 £1,960,000 321.5% 175.3% Even sub £600k is getting mullered. Flat 10A, Lanark Mansions, 12, Lanark Road, London, W9 1DB Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation 11 Dec 2018 £515,000 22.6% -7.1% 11 Jul 2008 £420,000 50.0% 29.8%
  9. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-summary-september-2018
  10. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2018
  11. Sam, you are probably similar to me in many respects. I started small time goods trading before I was 15, built this into a successful SME (but still emphasis on the small). Moved away from this when Ebay and direct shipping became the norm and I am now a young senior leader in the private sector. Long story short, I started looking at a first property a few years back in the south west as I could afford it but thought it was overpriced. The reality is, if I bit then I would have had a home for a few years and made some money on it and not the loss I anticipated. C'est la vie Since then I have rented/live in London and remain continually frustrated that on paper it looks like I am in the top 1% e.t.c but it rarely feels like that when you can only sensibly afford a large 2 bed flat in Zone 1/2. Or a average semi 3/4 bed house on the outskirts but one that is rather standard and not representative of what people who have played the game, made it to the top should be looking at. It does feel that you have to have been in the game before 2008 or frankly laundering money to feel like you have any success. The fact that a senior leader is looking at property that those on much lesser salaries could afford just 10+ years ago shows the market is dysfunctional (i.e property that was 350k up for £1.2 million now), and I think leads many young folk into a world of 'whats the point'. So I feel for you. In terms of nice cars e.t.c, I have only ever bought for cash but there was a stat that something like 96% of new Mercedes sold in the UK are financed/leased. That probably tells you everything, a world where everything is priced 'by the month' in a drive to try and show off to neighbours. In terms of hope though, the south east continues to get hit and a prime example of this was back in 2016 when I was looking to buy in London, something that was £650k then, is closer to £500-520k now. The fat is being taken out of the market and the real drops are starting to come through. It is a tricky game though, who knows when/where they will land.
  12. Even London is up 0.6% mom https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-july-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-july-2018
  13. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-summary-june-2018 +0.4% Nationwide -0.6% London
  14. Absolutely, a positive to see it written down for public consumption though.
  15. https://moneyweek.com/house-prices-arent-just-slipping-in-the-uk-this-is-global/
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