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Everything posted by Pablo

  1. Yep absolutely stacks of those, our rent would have been 2350 when we moved it but moved in Dec at 2100. Now it's £1600. Not far from St John's wood
  2. How far west are you? Rents definitely fallen in expensive parts of Zone 2
  3. My rent in a very nice part of West London is down 25%, the landlord barely put up a fight when he saw all the local property at the new levels.
  4. Henry was forecasting falls in q4 2020 before the stamp duty bung, he isn't an overt bull is he?
  5. I am on the look out but seeing lots of variance across London and out of London Flats have fallen from the mid end, typically down from a £620k at peak to about £535k, and still sitting there. Then I have been looking around areas like Beckenham and down the thameslink towards Redhill, Beckenham is more resilient but other areas have fallen back substantially to 2014-2016 numbers. Which does mean £2-300k savings from peak on £1m+ . Some houseprices.io examples... where property sells for what it did about 4 years ago but losing money due to inflation/stamp duty/fees e.t.c e.g W11 in London I notice that quite a lot of the drops that come through aren't necessarily below what the owners paid but on the money or within 10% of what they paid 4-7years ago. This is quite a shift given the huge 'on paper' gains just 2 years ago. Date Price Nominal change Real change 02 Aug 2019 £1,500,000 0.0% -11.0% 03 Sep 2015 £1,500,000 140.0% 118.3% Then we have just 70k over 2011 prices ! W11 in London Date Price Nominal change Real change 29 Jul 2019 £740,000 10.5% -12.6% 31 Jan 2011 £670,000 55.8% 27.1% 45k over 2008 Date Price Nominal change Real change 30 May 2019 £345,000 15.0% -16.6% 31 Jan 2008 £300,000 180.4% 119.7% 21 Dec 1998 £107,000 n/a n/a
  6. I thought that was the case....but it's not ! It's was a maisonette and still is... https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=57753508&sale=83685417&country=england
  7. There's loads of massive falls all over London. Back to 2008/2009 numbers e.g. Flat 5, 4, Little Green, Richmond, Greater London TW9 1QH £1,175,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 11 Dec 2018 £1,300,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 30 Nov 2010 £1,100,000 Flat, Leasehold, Residential 07 Mar 2007 Second example: below 2011 with inflation, and probably 2012/13 value if looking at face value Address: Flat 4, 17 Aldridge Road Villas, London, W11 1BL Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation 03 Dec 2018 £1,245,000 13.2% -5.7% 30 Sep 2011 £1,100,000 249.2% 176.8% Third example is below 2012 at face value and closer to 20% down on 2012 with inflation Flat 1, 25 Elgin Crescent, London, W11 2JD Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation 02 Nov 2018 £1,800,000 -8.2% -21.2% 10 Sep 2012 £1,960,000 321.5% 175.3% Even sub £600k is getting mullered. Flat 10A, Lanark Mansions, 12, Lanark Road, London, W9 1DB Date Sold for Nominal Change Real Change with inflation 11 Dec 2018 £515,000 22.6% -7.1% 11 Jul 2008 £420,000 50.0% 29.8%
  8. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-summary-september-2018
  9. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2018
  10. Sam, you are probably similar to me in many respects. I started small time goods trading before I was 15, built this into a successful SME (but still emphasis on the small). Moved away from this when Ebay and direct shipping became the norm and I am now a young senior leader in the private sector. Long story short, I started looking at a first property a few years back in the south west as I could afford it but thought it was overpriced. The reality is, if I bit then I would have had a home for a few years and made some money on it and not the loss I anticipated. C'est la vie Since then I have rented/live in London and remain continually frustrated that on paper it looks like I am in the top 1% e.t.c but it rarely feels like that when you can only sensibly afford a large 2 bed flat in Zone 1/2. Or a average semi 3/4 bed house on the outskirts but one that is rather standard and not representative of what people who have played the game, made it to the top should be looking at. It does feel that you have to have been in the game before 2008 or frankly laundering money to feel like you have any success. The fact that a senior leader is looking at property that those on much lesser salaries could afford just 10+ years ago shows the market is dysfunctional (i.e property that was 350k up for £1.2 million now), and I think leads many young folk into a world of 'whats the point'. So I feel for you. In terms of nice cars e.t.c, I have only ever bought for cash but there was a stat that something like 96% of new Mercedes sold in the UK are financed/leased. That probably tells you everything, a world where everything is priced 'by the month' in a drive to try and show off to neighbours. In terms of hope though, the south east continues to get hit and a prime example of this was back in 2016 when I was looking to buy in London, something that was £650k then, is closer to £500-520k now. The fat is being taken out of the market and the real drops are starting to come through. It is a tricky game though, who knows when/where they will land.
  11. Even London is up 0.6% mom https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-july-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-july-2018
  12. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-summary-june-2018 +0.4% Nationwide -0.6% London
  13. Absolutely, a positive to see it written down for public consumption though.
  14. https://moneyweek.com/house-prices-arent-just-slipping-in-the-uk-this-is-global/
  15. It's there now.. http://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/2018/07/in-search-of-affordable-housing.html
  16. I sign up for a few of the economic updates and this one popped through today. Note : It will eventually come up here but may take a couple of days http://blogs.deloitte.co.uk/mondaybriefing/ Some snippets "In the UK, house prices have risen 37% since 2009. With incomes rising more slowly housing has become more expensive relative to incomes. For homebuyers this effect has been partially mitigated by very low mortgage rates. * Financial crises generally lead to sharp declines in asset prices, making housing more affordable. It’s been different this time because central banks set out to bolster asset prices in the wake of the global crisis by slashing interest rates and undertaking quantitative easing. Cheap money has worked its magic, lifting the price of housing, equities and bonds across the world. * As a result, house prices in many countries look stretched relative to long-term yardsticks.* A standard measure of affordability compares house prices to rents and to incomes relative to long-term averages. At £226,351 the average UK house is almost eight times median annual earnings. The OECD estimates that UK housing is 29% overvalued against incomes and 41% overvalued against rents Within the UK, housing in London and the South East is the priciest, with London overvalued by 34% against incomes. That makes London housing as overvalued as the Belgian market which is one of the world’s most expensive. Housing has ridden a wave of cheap money in the last decade, pushing prices to new highs. Affordability varies within and between countries. But even for homebuyers in regions with stretched valuations, ultra-low financing costs have helped ease the pain. * With the global interest rate cycle starting to turn up, led by the US, the balm of cheap money seems set to retreat. It is hard to see house prices repeating the stellar performance of the last ten years in the next ten.
  17. Thanks I have messaged evictee with a link to this page. Unfortunately I am just had the idea rather than the technical capability, if evictee has the desire/time/skill to add this functionality that would be great, or even collaborate with someone on here with the skillset. Lets see if anything comes out of it.
  18. This gets posted every so often, it is super useful to see what is coming out in the week. Just search HPI and make sure its in GBP for UK related updates, this covers Halifax, Nationwide, LR, Acadata e.t.c https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
  19. The site appears to give some really good detail on recent house sales including the value at which they were previously sold. What would be really useful to see is some automated analysis by postcode on how recent house sales compare to their previous sold value in previous years. Certain areas in London appear to have regressed back to late 2013/early 2014 in many cases but it requires some effort to pick these out as many show 'green' because they haven't been sold since the late 90's/early 2000's. Thoughts?
  20. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2018/uk-house-price-index-summary-march-2018 London is -0.9% MoM South West is -0.3% MoM In fact all areas (10 of the 12) apart from NI, 'East of England' are negative MoM
  21. Yep live stream via https://www.eigpropertyauctions.co.uk/search/live-stream
  22. Unsold at £510k, so the market sees that at a 10% discount over the original asking. The auctioneer sounds rather frustrated that he can't sell anything due to the reserves set.
  23. It will be interesting to see what this one goes for. 129 1st Floor Flat 82B Harwood Road, Fulham, London, SW6 4Q - A guide of 470k, but recently up for 570k ! https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/82b-harwood-road/london/sw6-4qh/46698627
  24. Not the best property to track for drops based on the Acadata information, that is one of the few areas that seem to still be growing in London.
  25. Thanks worried1 & longgone I hadn't looked at Walton or Weybridge, so will put them on the list of potentials...the little google picture for Walton looks nice. What are the areas like? And what has been happening to house prices there? If its anything like Woking or seemingly Teddington, then it would be smarter to buy a big 2 bed around London that has already taken a hair cut then buy a house in a couple of years when price drops have hopefully spread. Not looking to buy immediately, but in the next year would be nice, depending on what the market is up to!
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