Frankie Teardrop Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 They'll copy whatever the FED does the day before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Cash Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: So, in summary - the press are all wrong, the BOE are all wrong, and you're right? OK then.... To be fair. The press are wrong. The BofE will be right, it’s their decision after all. Stewy? Who knows - he might be wright or rong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 No change. If they if they did start to cut this early, with inflation well above target, and with inflationary risks brewing, it would be a shock. I imagine this would be a mistake that will come back on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 hours ago, nero120 said: I voted +0.25% not because i realistically think they will raise, but I would absolutely love seeing the debt slaves and VIs implode at the news!! Can you imagine this happening the MSM will be saying how terrible this is for anyone who has a mortgage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 (edited) 1 hour ago, cdd said: with inflation well above target, And inflation is much higher than what is being reported. Edited January 24 by Tony_Teacake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballyk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The impact of the current interest rate ratchets up the pressure with each passing month. As fixed mortgage terms at low rates end, new higher ones begin. So even if they hold, they are tightening budgets for more and more people. I think there will be no change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Expecting no change. Rates won't come down until CPI gets close to 2%. If CPI surprises in 2024 and heads back towards 5% then the BOE might raise at some point in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyouken Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The banks dropping mortgage rates, seemingly savings ones as well based on the post on the forum today, and especially the premium bond rate going down, make me think they have been told it is going down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Sticking's an easy call this time; nowhere near enough chatter about relevant factors to push / justify a move in either direction.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 55 minutes ago, Kyouken said: The banks dropping mortgage rates, seemingly savings ones as well based on the post on the forum today, and especially the premium bond rate going down, make me think they have been told it is going down. It's not that they have been "told"...the writing is on the wall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 hours ago, Stewy said: It's not that they have been "told"...the writing is on the wall... Like it was in December, when the cuts were nailed on / baked in, according to you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said: I reckon Bailey has already been on the blower to Powell. "What's happening at the next FED meeting Jerome" "We are going to keep the rates the same Andrew because there is too much stress in the banking system but the stock markets are crying for a cut". "Andrew replies ok we will keep them the same". Those same stock markets that are at, or very close to, all time highs? They'll stay the same because we're at the top of the cycle. The bigest risk now is them cutting too soon. They'll be sticky on the way down. CPI has gone from 10.9% to 4.0% It'll be under 3% by end of year unless something unforeseen happens on the upside. Always a risk it goes too far under 2% too....... in which case back to ZIRP.... That's my biggest worry for house prices in the coming years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 42 minutes ago, dpg50000 said: Like it was in December, when the cuts were nailed on / baked in, according to you? They are baked-in. The market (market clearing rate) has adjusted way down even if the BoE is stupidly behind the curve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Mole Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The base rate will very likely stay the same. It will go down in 2024 just not yet. Maybe in the Spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExeC-UK Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said: And inflation is much higher than what is being reported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 17 hours ago, Stewy said: It's 1st Feb Stewy is right I think - Fed 31st, BoE 1st? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 PS. No change, but watch to see if they say anything about the speed of QT. I doubt they will say anything, but I suspect they may be selling faster than last year. Can anybody out there see the data to confirm / refute? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Fed holds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdd Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The central bank reiterated warnings that it was prepared to adjust interest rates “if risks emerge”. It comes after inflation rose by more than anticipated in December to 3.4pc amid higher costs for housing, eating out and car insurance. The US economy has proved remarkably resilient in the face of borrowing costs rising at the fastest pace since the 1980s. The S&P500 immediately fell by as much as 1pc after the Fed issued its statement warning markets against expecting rate cuts imminently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowMuch! Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 if they don't increase the next few dates, bigger increases will have to come later in the year. 10% min. wage increase alongside the supply chain costs that will filter through next quarter, we will be back to double digit official figures by the end of summer. Cut highly unlikely, but if is the case, bet the house on some .5 increases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 On 1/24/2024 at 7:40 PM, Frankie Teardrop said: They'll copy whatever the FED does the day before. Agreed, and the Fed have held. The Fed also said they think that a rate cut in March is unlikely. With only six meetings after that I suspect that the fed are unlikely to drop more than 1% in the whole of 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I’ve probably already replied to this thread but honestly tomorrow could go either way. I think everyone’s prepared for the base rate and the likes of mortgages being at this historic norm for at least 2-3 years, so does it really matter what happens tomorrow? Probably not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coypondboy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I was amazed how much 5 yr fixed rates have fallen in January from 5.99 to 3.99 that's a 2% drop whilst trackers still at 6% ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 minutes ago, coypondboy said: I was amazed how much 5 yr fixed rates have fallen in January from 5.99 to 3.99 that's a 2% drop whilst trackers still at 6% ? The BoE are way behind the curve - but the market has already readjusted. ✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pmax2020 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 hours ago, coypondboy said: I was amazed how much 5 yr fixed rates have fallen in January from 5.99 to 3.99 that's a 2% drop whilst trackers still at 6% ? Why? Fixed rates are no different to the likes of gym memberships with ‘half price for the first 3 months’… etc Lenders are just trying to entice people onto their accounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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