Consumer confidence at its lowest on record

[fellow]

UK consumer confidence weaker than during major recessions

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/19/uk-consumer-confidence-weaker-than-during-major-recessions-inflation

"

Consumer confidence in the UK is weaker than during the four major recessions of the past half century as rapidly rising inflation saps morale.

Although the UK is technically yet to enter recession, the latest barometer of sentiment from the data company GfK found the public gloomier than at any time since the survey began in January 1974.

Sentiment has been falling steadily throughout 2022 and dropped by a further three points to a record low of -44 in August. A year ago the index stood at -8".

[winkie]

Consumer confidence, does it mean not confident that the income received will buy the same or more than it bought yesterday?

Previous recessions people say 70s had far less than they have today, stuff was expensive, fewer clothes and shoes, bric-a-brac, electrical goods, bedding and towels, cars, holidays, meals out, takeaways, mobile phones everyone in the same boat and they coped made their own free entertainment, skipping, playing sports, youth clubs, hopscotch, bus rides, swimming, fishing.......there is an excess of cheap throwaway stuff today that people can purchase for very little.....tons of stuff people no longer want or find useful for sale everywhere.

The bigger problem today is rents, subscriptions and debt payments......got more stuff today that requires energy to work when energy is expensive....... didn't need to charge anything then, no front loading washing machines, dishwashers, central heating or even freezers.

Had confidence in the NHS, schools and police services.......less fraud and scammers about...... technology has both a beneficial side and a negative side, like everything I suppose......could confidence low mean failing confidence in social services and regulation that provides protection.

[Nomadd]

1 hour ago, fellow said:

UK consumer confidence weaker than during major recessions

Just imagine what it will be like 3 months from now..

And 6 months from now..

And 9 months from now..

...

...

 

[fellow]

I wonder if this has fed through to confidence in the housing market yet, or is the mantra of "house prices only go up" too strong until we actually see some significant falls?

[Nomadd]

6 minutes ago, fellow said:

I wonder if this has fed through to confidence in the housing market yet, or is the mantra of "house prices only go up" too strong until we actually see some significant falls?

In the areas I'm looking, the falls are 5-10% max - from grossly (grossly!) inflated Covid prices. In no way, shape or form has the "penny dropped" yet. Still, it's only a question of time, and I don't think the wait will be too long.

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

got more stuff today that requires energy to work when energy is expensive....... didn't need to charge anything then, no front loading washing machines, dishwashers, central heating or even freezers.

Energy use per capita in the UK is lower now than it was in the 1970s.

http://stochastictrend.blogspot.com/2012/10/per-capita-energy-use-in-uk.html

Edited August 20, 2022 by Dorkins

[winkie]

1 minute ago, Dorkins said:

Energy use per capita in the UK is lower now than it was in the 1970s.

http://stochastictrend.blogspot.com/2012/10/per-capita-energy-use-in-uk.html

Not energy usage in the home it wasn't.........we had a manufacturing industry then, we made stuff......today we get other places in the world to pump co2 into the atmosphere to make it on our behalf, we use energy on pollution creating tankers to ship it to us......tons of coal exported from Australia to China to facilitate it.

[Dorkins]

6 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not energy usage in the home it wasn't.........

Link?

[winkie]

1 minute ago, Dorkins said:

Link?

Do the maths......heating one room rather than a whole house, fewer electrical items, out of house most of the day.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/

Not giving specific energy consumption per UK household in the 70s.......but tells a growing global energy consumption......that line will now be coming down, we will have to get used to using less, reuse, recycle, repair and share.

[henry the king]

The newest MPC member has used consumer confidence as an excuse to say they wouldn't raise rates much.

So it is good that this data came out now and the next reading won't be until after the next BoE decision.

So they will have forgotten it by the time they make their decision.

[Dorkins]

33 minutes ago, winkie said:

Do the maths......heating one room rather than a whole house, fewer electrical items, out of house most of the day.

Here you go, UK domestic energy use:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1061644/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK_2021.pdf

There are about 20% more people in the UK now than there were in the 1970s but total domestic energy use is about the same. Home energy consumption per capita is lower now than it was in the 1970s.

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Dorkins

[Dorkins]

Here's one with a horizontal line to aid comparison:

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Here you go, UK domestic energy use:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1061644/Energy_Consumption_in_the_UK_2021.pdf

There are more households and people now than there were in the 1970s but total domestic energy use is unchanged.

 

Oil is one form of energy, we have North sea gas......used for hot water, heating and cooking, bio, solar etc........sure more coal was used in the 70s... graph not telling the whole story.

[Dorkins]

Just now, winkie said:

Oil is one form of energy, we have North sea gas......used for hot water, heating and cooking, bio, solar etc........sure more coal was used in the 70s... graph not telling the whole story.

That's not just oil usage, that is all forms of energy but converted to tonnes of oil equivalent to make it possible to add them up.

[winkie]

3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

That's not just oil usage, that is all forms of energy but converted to tonnes of oil equivalent to make it possible to add them up.

Energy usage at home went up till 70s when it leveled because fuel was expensive like today and inflation was high.....it is only in the last twenty or thirty years that household energy consumption has risen, more cars per household with larger engines.....use of public transport not used so much apart from inner city areas, but that is declining now because of cost and WFH.......we will see people using less fuel in the home and out of the home again.

[byron78]

I'm not surprised tbh.

Can't just be consumers either.

Must be millions of small businesses with spiralling energy costs.

Feels like the little guy is going to get thrown under the train to save the fat cats.

Edited August 20, 2022 by byron78

[hotblack42]

6 minutes ago, byron78 said:

I'm not surprised tbh.

Can't just be consumers either.

Must be millions of small businesses with spiralling energy costs.

Feels like the little guy is going to get thrown under the train to save the fat cats.

If too many 'little guys' are thrown under the train (bus?) at once it will get ugly.

Lots of angry 'little guys' with nothing to lose who know where the handful of fat cats live.. how might that end?

The British don't wave their arms around or protest like the Italians or French, they are mild mannered for too long - then snap.

[rantnrave]

7 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

If too many 'little guys' are thrown under the train (bus?) at once it will get ugly.

Not going to happen - they're both on strike

[steve99]

2 hours ago, Nomadd said:

Just imagine what it will be like 3 months from now..

And 6 months from now..

And 9 months from now..

...

...

 

Yes, when the pretend middle class gets whacked with energy bills and higher interest rates on their mega mortgage McHousing estate house and two leased cars in the driveway.  Not only that but employers will be making mass redundancies sometime in that 6 to 9 month timeframe if not sooner (this thing about not enough workers is already exaggerated and will not last even in the few areas it is true). I say pretend middle class because in the old days if you were real middle class then you automatically had options, favours and choices in life and much of your money flowed in just by signing a flourishing signature. Today the pretend middle class are 2 or 3 pay days away from destitution. 

[shlomo]

2 hours ago, Nomadd said:

Just imagine what it will be like 3 months from now..

And 6 months from now..

And 9 months from now..

...

...

 

I think it is obvious for all to see we are going to have a drop in the standard of living 

[steve99]

8 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

If too many 'little guys' are thrown under the train (bus?) at once it will get ugly.

Lots of angry 'little guys' with nothing to lose who know where the handful of fat cats live.. how might that end?

The British don't wave their arms around or protest like the Italians or French, they are mild mannered for too long - then snap.

I think the 'betrayed'  Wetherspoons, tory-voting brexiteer will be very up front with their language and fists when they get their arses kicked out of their jobs and homes and realise that the likes of BJob and Farage were a lying duo of ball bags and there will be no sunlit uplands for the working classes. 

[winkie]

8 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I think it is obvious for all to see we are going to have a drop in the standard of living 

Apart from everything else we will if firms can get rid of high cost employees and replace with cheaper with no comeback ........ Over the years employees rights have been eroded.....to benefit firms.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11129407/P-O-Ferries-bosses-WONT-face-criminal-proceedings-firing-800-workers-without-notice.html

[byron78]

34 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

If too many 'little guys' are thrown under the train (bus?) at once it will get ugly.

Lots of angry 'little guys' with nothing to lose who know where the handful of fat cats live.. how might that end?

The British don't wave their arms around or protest like the Italians or French, they are mild mannered for too long - then snap.

Yep.

Although Britain has often sold itself off to huge corps and overseas fat cats thanks to our "wonderful" political class and the "miracle" of privatisation...

Must be odd being an EDF customer in the UK right now...

 

[Lenelby]

15 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Must be odd being an EDF customer in the UK right now...

I’m on a 2 year fix rate with EDF. I’d call it satisfying right now… 🙂

[Social Justice League]

1 hour ago, steve99 said:

Yes, when the pretend middle class gets whacked with energy bills and higher interest rates on their mega mortgage McHousing estate house and two leased cars in the driveway.  Not only that but employers will be making mass redundancies sometime in that 6 to 9 month timeframe if not sooner (this thing about not enough workers is already exaggerated and will not last even in the few areas it is true). I say pretend middle class because in the old days if you were real middle class then you automatically had options, favours and choices in life and much of your money flowed in just by signing a flourishing signature. Today the pretend middle class are 2 or 3 pay days away from destitution. 

100% agree.  There was an article written earlier in the year that stated that most of the population would struggle to pay an unexpected bill of £300.  That is shocking in 2022.  The financial fecklessness is astonishing.