Covid - is there trouble ahead? New mutation and travel bans.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

11 minutes ago, satsuma said:

Seems we might have dodged a bullet with Omicron, no real increase in deaths in South Africa so far and boosters giving protection anyway.  To be honest at this stage it should just be a case of getting on with getting back to normal.  I would push for masks and vaccines also but we can't be expected to be locked down for nothing. 

No it doesn't. None of us have a clue. Going back to normal would increase the risk of mutation... ie there is no "normal" right now. 

[pig]

4 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I would challenge that too - many people would be very happy to, and indeed continue to do so (I had family round this week and we socially distanced).  It's just that the government doesn't want to MANDATE it.

Also the evidence seems to be that the booster makes a HUGE difference to making the symptoms milder, especially for people who had the AstraZeneca first time, so it is attacking a different angle - severity rather than transmission.

Yes I’d agree with the first paragraph - reductio absurdum, politically it’s better for BJ to bang on about boosters.

I also understand the vaccine makes symptoms milder and in particular for those who got AZ.

The point is the modellers will be concerned about numbers of hospitalised patients admitted  per unit time, not just simply is it milder ‘generally’. Severity + speed of transmission + state of population = answer to winter calamity or not (more or less !)

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

13 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I felt the opposite until I saw Dr Campbell's video this morning - now I've changed my mind.  Watch what the South African doctor says and see what you think!

Dr Campbell has a Phd in nursing. I'd rather listen to people with more relevant Phds! Why is everyone listening to Dr Campbell? Very odd indeed. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

58 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

It certainly looks that way, but will the frenzied booster campaign prevent that immunity from occurring. 

It doesn't look that way - the virus is evolving.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

9 hours ago, Grayphil said:

She is actually mad..

Because her brother is immunocompromised she is campaigning for permanent Lockdowns until we get zero covid 

She is rabid, selfish, and unable to balance risks of Covid Vs impacts to anything else 

To quote her, has actually just done you a huge disservice.

I was paying attention to some of your posts, hoping to find some middle ground, but no .

This woman, would see me out of a job, my children without education and every human living like a hermit for eternity..

Truly one of the worst covid commentators, who I actually believe has managed to put public understanding of science back by about 50 years 

 

She isn't mad - she's a very good, logical, commentator with a very relevant academic background. 

[Bruce Banner]

Just now, gruffydd said:

It doesn't look that way - the virus is evolving.

Yes, the virus is evolving, that's what they do.

[MARTINX9]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

UK has at least 250 people in hospital with Omicron, deputy PM says

British Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said on Tuesday that there were at least 250 people in hospital with Omicron and that those numbers could increase dramatically unless swift action was taken.

Reuters

And again - even though the number is wrong - 'with Omicron'. In other words they have tested positive with it.

Doesn't mean they went into hospital with it - they may have arrived with something else and caught it there - they could be a 30 year old athlete with a broken leg who had a PCR test the day before they arrived in hospital. They may in many cases be entirely asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

The implied messaging of course is that these 250 - or is it 10 people - are all at death's door. And you are all going to die too - unless you get the booster.

About as subtle as a brick through a window!

Why not say 10 are in hospital and perhaps 2 are on oxygen and the rest have mild symptoms or none. You know just be honest with people about their conditions - don't just lump them all together.

Because being led by the government to think you are going to die probably isn't good for your mental health - which may bring on other conditions like heart attacks, stress induced cancer, suicides or strokes. And frankly with 20 million people to jab the NHS really doesn't have the time or resources to deal with all those extra sick people.

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by MARTINX9

[Bob8]

50 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Perhaps if people don't catch it they won't get the natural immunity?

Well, yes, but them catching it still produces lots of sick people. It is not like a forest fire where we can carefully burn some trees to stop it spreading.

Vaccination is still the best controlled way of maximising exposure as safely as possible.

[scottbeard]

48 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Dr Campbell has a Phd in nursing. I'd rather listen to people with more relevant Phds! Why is everyone listening to Dr Campbell? Very odd indeed. 

Erm - because within his Monday video is a segment where a South African health specialist speaks.  That's the segment that changed my mind.

Don't be so quick to judge and snap at me!!!!

[MancTom]

53 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

And again - even though the number is wrong - 'with Omicron'. In other words they have tested positive with it.

Doesn't mean they went into hospital with it - they may have arrived with something else and caught it there - they could be a 30 year old athlete with a broken leg who had a PCR test the day before they arrived in hospital. They may in many cases be entirely asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

The implied messaging of course is that these 250 - or is it 10 people - are all at death's door. And you are all going to die too - unless you get the booster.

About as subtle as a brick through a window!

Why not say 10 are in hospital and perhaps 2 are on oxygen and the rest have mild symptoms or none.

 

Do you have any evidence the other 248 just have broken legs etc and are otherwise fine? This is just the "but how many were run over by buses" nonsense peddled last year. Except it turned out not to be true.

Edited December 14, 2021 by MancTom

[Bruce Banner]

23 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Well, yes, but them catching it still produces lots of sick people. It is not like a forest fire where we can carefully burn some trees to stop it spreading.

Vaccination is still the best controlled way of maximising exposure as safely as possible.

Given the choice I'd rather have a mild case of Covid once a year than three or four annual jabs.

Even though I'm offered one every year, I don't have an annual flu jab, preferring to get my immunity the natural way. Yes, there is a slight risk of death, but it is a risk that I can tolerate.

[henry the king]

12 hours ago, gruffydd said:

It's very early data, so of course it means nothing much right now... perhaps it won't mean very much in the future - who knows. We have to wait. In the meantime, we work with whatever glimpses we get... 

I picked the data up via Deepti Gurdasani - a very able academic and lecturer... but to you it shows nothing.. her expertise lies in statistical genetics and epidemiology, so I suspect she's a tad more reliable as a commentator than your good self? 

She is a zero covid extremist who is also a far left radical. Someone who was against opening in July even though it was clearly the right thing to do. 

So everything she says is biased by these facts. You basically select a group of zero-covid crazy people on twitter and suggest that is somehow making you informed. You aren't getting a balanced view, and hence you are hysterical about Omicron, which still hasn't necessitated restrictions in South Africa. So the hospitals there are still fine, which suggests we will be fine here and it is milder by enough to matter.

The biology means it is for sure possible that it is milder because its mutations were aimed at getting around antibodies, and the downside of doing that is it becomes less stable and therefore less deadly. That is now being confirmed in real world data. If Omicron was a huge issue then given how transmissible it is, South African hospitals would have collapsed already. But they haven't. So the evidence is very very strong that it is much milder.

Edited December 14, 2021 by henry the king

[henry the king]

11 hours ago, Grayphil said:

She is actually mad..

Because her brother is immunocompromised she is campaigning for permanent Lockdowns until we get zero covid 

She is rabid, selfish, and unable to balance risks of Covid Vs impacts to anything else 

To quote her, has actually just done you a huge disservice.

I was paying attention to some of your posts, hoping to find some middle ground, but no .

This woman, would see me out of a job, my children without education and every human living like a hermit for eternity..

Truly one of the worst covid commentators, who I actually believe has managed to put public understanding of science back by about 50 years 

 

Yeh he just outed himself as a zero-covid person by quoting her. He lost all credibility in my mind too.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

2 minutes ago, henry the king said:

She is a zero covid extremist who is also a far left radical. Someone who was against opening in July even though it was clearly the right thing to do. 

So everything she says is biased by these facts. You basically select a group of zero-covid crazy people on twitter and suggest that is somehow making you informed. You aren't getting a balanced view, and hence you are hysterical about Omicron, which still hasn't necessitated restrictions in South Africa. So the hospitals there are still fine, which suggests we will be fine here and it is milder by enough to matter.

Dear oh dear... judge, judge, judge. Can you not see how rude you are being. Please apologise.  

As for labelling people as crazy when they argue for zero Covid... no - Yaneer, who runs one such group, was heavily involved with the work that succesfully combatted Ebola. They are no more "extremist" than those who argue for opening up. 

As for your labelling of a scientists as a "far left radical" - dear oh dear. It's all conspiracies and agendas, innit. 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

1 minute ago, henry the king said:

Yeh he just outed himself as a zero-covid person by quoting her. He lost all credibility in my mind too.

Sad. Judge, judge, judge... 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

48 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Erm - because within his Monday video is a segment where a South African health specialist speaks.  That's the segment that changed my mind.

Don't be so quick to judge and snap at me!!!!

She's a GP. I wasn't judging you but I was judging the quality of the information. A Phd in nursing and a GP... not exactly leaders in the field!

Edited December 14, 2021 by gruffydd

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

Apparently this is extreme... well, that's how the right tend to frame it anyway (and they skew science more than most)
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/

PS. It isn't extreme... it's just science... scientists trying to find a way through Covid. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by gruffydd

[henry the king]

2 minutes ago, gruffydd said:

Dear oh dear... judge, judge, judge. Can you not see how rude you are being. Please apologise.  

As for labelling people as crazy when they argue for zero Covid... no - Yaneer, who runs one such group, was heavily involved with the work that succesfully combatted Ebola. They are no more "extremist" than those who argue for opening up. 

As for your labelling of a scientists as a "far left radical" - dear oh dear. It's all conspiracies and agendas, innit. 

You are stirring up fear based on zero covid radicals. It is really negative because people can read what you are saying and gets anxiety about it. It is similar to spreading anti-vax propaganda. Just from the other side.

Sorry if I came across as rude though. I respect you. I just think on this issue you are losing credibility by just spamming things from radicals and demeaning others who disagree because you follow the "experts". It isn't a conspiracy to label her a far left radical and a zero-covid radical at all. She was the lead of the group saying the July re-opening was dangerous and immoral. She was horrendously wrong on that, as she has been many times. 

And her perma-lockdown ideas will just cause more suffering than it alleviates at this stage. Obviously if you want to limit covid you do a lockdown and do zero-covid. But there are other things to consider in society. That is what she does not understand because she is an extremist who cannot see beyond the single issue of covid.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

3 minutes ago, henry the king said:

You are stirring up fear based on zero covid radicals. It is really negative because people can read what you are saying and gets anxiety about it. It is similar to spreading anti-vax propaganda. Just from the other side.

Sorry if I came across as rude though. I respect you. I just think on this issue you are losing credibility by just spamming things from radicals and demeaning others who disagree because you follow the "experts". It isn't a conspiracy to label her a far left radical and a zero-covid radical at all. She was the lead of the group saying the July re-opening was dangerous and immoral. She was horrendously wrong on that, as she has been many times. 

And her perma-lockdown ideas will just cause more suffering than it alleviates at this stage. Obviously if you want to limit covid you do a lockdown and do zero-covid. But there are other things to consider in society. That is what she does not understand because she is an extremist who cannot see beyond the single issue of covid.

Dear oh dear. I've been stating time and again that we don't have enough data to understand Omicron. I've linked you to leading scientists. Where am I arguing for lockdown? I am not. So please do quieten down. 

So I will repeat again. We don't have enough data to understand the impact of omicron yet. If you want to argue that core fact is "stirring up fear"... then go ahead. It's nonsensical though. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by gruffydd

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

This was Deepti's position re: lockdown - well argued, logical, and it made sense - not extreme in the slightest: 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext

[henry the king]

Just now, gruffydd said:

Dear oh dear, can you actually read? I've been stating time and again that we don't have enough data to understand Omicron. I've linked you to leading scientists. Where am I arguing for lockdown? I am not. So please do quieten down. 

The people you are quoting are well known zero-covid "experts". So they will present you with data, and an interpretation of the data, which favours their view of zero-covid and lockdowns. They have a vested interest of proving themselves right all along. Nobody knows how bad Omicron will be, that is true. But the signs are very promising as South Africa has not had to implement restrictions. And that is with low vaccine coverage, and urban population and millions of HIV+ individuals. And previously they did need restrictions. 

That is the main "real data" we have. Look at when Covid first arrived. It took weeks before Italy's hospitals were on the point of collapse. There is no indication of that from South Africa and we are over 3 weeks in now. So it does appear to be more mild. Probably by a lot.

That isn't to say that it is for sure a good situation. I agree with you on that. But the signs are promising. We absolutely need to be careful about future restrictions in the UK because the cost of them is HUGE. 

[henry the king]

Just now, gruffydd said:

This was Deepti's position re: lockdown - well argued, logical, and it made sense - not extreme in the slightest: 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext

And her position was not to open in July which was proven to be wrong, as that helped up massively and will help us vs Omicron because we have more super immune people (vaccine + infection). 

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

1 minute ago, henry the king said:

The people you are quoting are well known zero-covid "experts". So they will present you with data, and an interpretation of the data, which favours their view of zero-covid and lockdowns. They have a vested interest of proving themselves right all along. Nobody knows how bad Omicron will be, that is true. But the signs are very promising as South Africa has not had to implement restrictions. And that is with low vaccine coverage, and urban population and millions of HIV+ individuals. And previously they did need restrictions. 

That is the main "real data" we have. Look at when Covid first arrived. It took weeks before Italy's hospitals were on the point of collapse. There is no indication of that from South Africa and we are over 3 weeks in now. So it does appear to be more mild. Probably by a lot.

That isn't to say that it is for sure a good situation. I agree with you on that. But the signs are promising. We absolutely need to be careful about future restrictions in the UK because the cost of them is HUGE. 

As you well know, Deepti argued for a controlled reopening rather than a perma-lockdown. Her position is not extreme in the slightest. Well informed, yes. Extreme? No. 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext

[MARTINX9]

48 minutes ago, MancTom said:

Do you have any evidence the other 248 just have broken legs etc and are otherwise fine? This is just the "but how many were run over by buses" nonsense peddled last year. Except it turned out not to be true.

Do you have any evidence most of them are not?

All I am asking for is honesty and transparency - like the data being issued in South Africa about these cases which suggests the vast majority of cases are mild. Now I know our expert modellers are superior to these doctors on the ground dealing with this weeks in - but if SA can issue this data why can't the NHS.

Are they all 30 year old footballers and athletes gasping for breath and close to death - or are they sitting in a bed with a broken leg with no symptoms or a few sniffles?

Who was the person who died 'with Omicron' yesterday - apparently all our politicians are giving their condolences to the family so presumably they must all know if the person who died was a 30 year old athlete and died gasping for breath or a 95 year old who was terminally ill with cancer and therefore Omicron wasn't the cause.

I am just asking for honesty and transparency about the cases and how severe they are or not?

Because don't you think we deserve that? Obviously you think its fine to scare people literally to death in some cases - because yesterday 18 times more people committed suicide in this country than died 'with omicron'.

I know those suicide cases don't matter to our leaders it seems - but how many people are being driven to the edge by the scare and fear tactics.

Just be honest - and tell the truth! Facts and data please - not scare tactics.

Edited December 14, 2021 by MARTINX9

[hotblack42]

A lot of impatient, cross people on here & in general.  It's quite reasonable to assume that it will take at least a year to fully understand, treat & vaccinate effectively against Omicron.  The existing vaccines are being re-worked & new mutations will probably emerge.  The new normal is dealing with the virus' variants using an array of strategies for several years more & the sooner we get used to the idea the better.