Confusion of VIs Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 On 31/10/2021 at 12:24, kzb said: It's A BID. Like all private sector you win the bid, then worry about how to pay for it later. Wind power has doubled in price in the last 20 years. Look at that link I gave above, even the recent offshore wind sites to come online are more expensive, not cheaper. It's actually the minimum guaranteed price for the power generated. In reality the power will be sold at market rates. What it tells you is that the company is confident it can produce unsubsidised power that undercuts the fossil fuel generators. On 31/10/2021 at 12:24, kzb said: PV is no good for the grid in Britain without immense energy storage, which has not been costed in the bids. It's a false bid in a sense; they should have to bid prices based on keeping us supplied 24/7, not just when it suits them to sell it to us. Solar is just part of the mix, it's up to the national regulators to decide how to meet the overall requirement some are already asking for a guaranteed price for 24 hr supply. In Chile their most recent power supply auction for 24hr supply at a fixed price was won by CSP at $0.034. Obviously different solutions will be required in the UK, but we have a wide range of potential resources that will produce far cheaper power than your favoured impractical sand expensive solution of building dozens of new nuclear stations. On 31/10/2021 at 14:26, kzb said: 2nd reply to this: Great, so what are worrying about heat pumps for. If they can retail it to consumers at say 1.3p/kWh, that would be half the price of gas was the other year. We don't need to super-insulate our homes nor have heat pumps at a price like that. The electricity will be cheap enough to have an electric radiator in each room. In fact a heat pump would make little sense financially, because its installation, maintenance and depreciation costs would likely exceed the money saved on electricity at these prices. So you seem a little conflicted. You support trillion-pound property retrofits whilst also believing that electricity will be so cheap it makes no financial sense to undertake those same retrofits ? You haven't though this through. Even if the power was free, by the time it was delivered to your home it wouldn't be at anything like 1.3p and in any case why would you want to build a power infrastructure maybe 10 times bigger than necessary to heat homes. My expectation is that electricity prices will probably stay around their current high prices and gas prices will continue to increase over the next decade as the cost of carbon capture is added to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, Brendan110_0 said: Need a repair economy - reuse not re-manufacture. Any kind of planned obsolescence should come with jail sentences for the offending business owner. Make microwaves last 20 years again etc. Can't change the light bulb myself on my microwave. Cheaper to get a new one than pay to have it replaced. Don't get me started on phones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 hours ago, byron78 said: Yes. I doubt NASA thought of that. Silly NASA. Yes. We are lucky have forums give us people with expertise on climate change, virology etc that far surpass the people working on it. I hope those so called experts can look it up for forums, it will save them decades of hard work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: You haven't though this through. Even if the power was free, by the time it was delivered to your home it wouldn't be at anything like 1.3p and in any case why would you want to build a power infrastructure maybe 10 times bigger than necessary to heat homes. I was thinking a 40% mark up on the wholesale price was pretty generous in a competitive market. I still doubt the heat pump/ insulation retrofit payback time is far short of infinity even at say 3p a unit (which would be an acceptable price to me for electric heating without heat pump). The power infrastructure is going to need a massive upgrade in any case. There are all the EVs to charge up as well as domestic heating. Given that heatpumps are no good for hot water so that an immersion heater is required, I doubt there is a vast difference in the peak demand to be met with or without heat pumps. Storage heaters might be acceptable to many people as well if the electric was cheap enough. 13 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: My expectation is that electricity prices will probably stay around their current high prices and gas prices will continue to increase over the next decade as the cost of carbon capture is added to it. But all this time you have been promising us super abundant super power ! It was going to be so cheap because the price is constantly falling. Now you tell us it won't happen and it will be more expensive after all ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bob8 said: Yes. We are lucky have forums give us people with expertise on climate change, virology etc that far surpass the people working on it. I hope those so called experts can look it up for forums, it will save them decades of hard work Luckily there are still some qualified climate scientists who point out to ordinary forum members like me where the science is not settled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, byron78 said: How many extinction events have there been again? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extinction_events Caused by positive feedback levels event producing a one-way street to Venus? None. Just what was your point supposed to be? I've already pointed out the importance of identifying just what consequences you're concerned about, and just what exactly are people worried about when they're talking about tipping points. Because the end of humanity is not on the cards from climate change. And I've already mentioned that pretty serious consequences that still fall short of that very much are something to be concerned about. Edited November 1, 2021 by Riedquat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bob8 said: Yes. We are lucky have forums give us people with expertise on climate change, virology etc that far surpass the people working on it. I hope those so called experts can look it up for forums, it will save them decades of hard work It's fascinating how it mirrors the religious zealot "they know best" logic as well. It must have been lovely when you could just pretend you had a direct line to a deity. Now the bastards want evidence! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Riedquat said: Caused by positive feedback levels event producing a one-way street to Venus? None. Why do we have to go to that extreme? What climate change models predict a Venus outcome? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Just now, byron78 said: Why do we have to go to that extreme? What climate change models predict a Venus outcome? See the rest of my post - I guess I must've made the edit whilst you were writing yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, kzb said: Can't change the light bulb myself on my microwave. Cheaper to get a new one than pay to have it replaced. Don't get me started on phones. Yes. I agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 55 minutes ago, kzb said: Hang on, it wasn't CO2 that killed the dinosaurs. Those that survived the initial cataclysm died as a result of global cooling. Again, you should email the scientists to offer your fascinating expert insights. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2170015-asteroid-that-killed-the-dinosaurs-caused-massive-global-warming/amp/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, kzb said: Luckily there are still some qualified climate scientists who point out to ordinary forum members like me where the science is not settled. Indeed. And easily available on the internet, I find the Royal Society quite useful. And Nasa. https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Riedquat said: See the rest of my post - I guess I must've made the edit whilst you were writing yours. I'm just not sure the denialists are keeping up with (or rather, being kept up with) the science is all. The latest take on how CO2 swamped the dinos is fascinating. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2170015-asteroid-that-killed-the-dinosaurs-caused-massive-global-warming/amp/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob8 said: Indeed. And easily available on the internet, I find the Royal Society quite useful. And Nasa. https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/ This is a contrarian forum. People on here believe the system and the news media are one machine to keep property prices high and the people poor. People believe they are being farmed like livestock. They are very sceptical of official stats as presented to them on the BBC et al. They don't believe in it all, despite the qualifications and expertise of the economists and financiers. The mainstream qualified experts are just part of the same machine. Yet when a different department of that same machine tells them they have to be poor because of climate change, many of them swallow it whole. I don't get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, byron78 said: Again, you should email the scientists to offer your fascinating expert insights. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2170015-asteroid-that-killed-the-dinosaurs-caused-massive-global-warming/amp/ That very article mentions the devastating cooling caused by all the dust in the atmosphere. It does not say it was the later warming which caused the dinosaur extinction. In any case, the cretaceous was already much warmer than today. It is known as a climate optimum period, in contrast to the ice age in which we live today. It's colder now than almost the entire history of life on the planet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, kzb said: That very article mentions the devastating cooling caused by all the dust in the atmosphere. It does not say it was the later warming which caused the dinosaur extinction. In any case, the cretaceous was already much warmer than today. It is known as a climate optimum period, in contrast to the ice age in which we live today. It's colder now than almost the entire history of life on the planet. You are not adapted to live in the cretaceous climate, nor are most animals and plants alive today. Most animals alive in the cretaceous are not equipped to live in our climate. Might want to think about that before saying its all fine theplanet has been warmer... If you don't believe me watch how the country falls over after a really hot summer as all the infrastructure can't cope, then again if we have a really cold winter. The UK can't cope in existing extremes of our current climate let alone a more extreme one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, byron78 said: I'm just not sure the denialists are keeping up with (or rather, being kept up with) the science is all. The latest take on how CO2 swamped the dinos is fascinating. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2170015-asteroid-that-killed-the-dinosaurs-caused-massive-global-warming/amp/ Although rapid warming will strain some environments to breaking point (and that's definitely not something we want to do) it often seems like more direct habitat loss is a bigger threat, although the two are linked (ever more human expansion and consumption). Edited November 1, 2021 by Riedquat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 57 minutes ago, Riedquat said: Although rapid warming will strain some environments to breaking point (and that's definitely not something we want to do) it often seems like more direct habitat loss is a bigger threat, although the two are linked (ever more human expansion and consumption). Yes, I think what's often forgotten is that humans will lose habitat too. The middle of the planet is going to get it far far worse than anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, kzb said: That very article mentions the devastating cooling caused by all the dust in the atmosphere. It does not say it was the later warming which caused the dinosaur extinction. In any case, the cretaceous was already much warmer than today. It is known as a climate optimum period, in contrast to the ice age in which we live today. It's colder now than almost the entire history of life on the planet. Yes. Doesn't say the cooling caused the dinosaur extinction, either. It says a combination of both caused them to die out (and the warming was far far worse). Do you know why it mentions both? Because it's not cherry picking. Edited November 1, 2021 by byron78 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Staffsknot said: You are not adapted to live in the cretaceous climate, nor are most animals and plants alive today. Most animals alive in the cretaceous are not equipped to live in our climate. Might want to think about that before saying its all fine theplanet has been warmer... If you don't believe me watch how the country falls over after a really hot summer as all the infrastructure can't cope, then again if we have a really cold winter. The UK can't cope in existing extremes of our current climate let alone a more extreme one. Are you suggesting the Wolly Mammoth went extinct because it got to hot for it, and maybe gradually "evolved" into the hairless, smaller elephants we have today? Hmmm. TBH i think humans will have no issues dealing with a warming climate, technology already allows us to live in extremes from the Artic to deserts, it's just that well, there will be a lot less of us, like 6.5-7 billion less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 6 hours ago, kzb said: I was thinking a 40% mark up on the wholesale price was pretty generous in a competitive market. I still doubt the heat pump/ insulation retrofit payback time is far short of infinity even at say 3p a unit (which would be an acceptable price to me for electric heating without heat pump). It isn't all mark up, it includes the cost of building maintaining and operating the distribution network plus maintaining adequate reserve power and storage. And don't forget Hinckley Point C. When that comes online making the guaranteed payments will itself add over 1.3p to the cost of each kwh (13% of our electricity at £106 a mwh) 6 hours ago, kzb said: The power infrastructure is going to need a massive upgrade in any case. There are all the EVs to charge up as well as domestic heating. Given that heatpumps are no good for hot water so that an immersion heater is required, I doubt there is a vast difference in the peak demand to be met with or without heat pumps. Storage heaters might be acceptable to many people as well if the electric was cheap enough. Where did you get that idea? Just another bit of FUD you thought you might as well throw in? 6 hours ago, kzb said: But all this time you have been promising us super abundant super power ! It was going to be so cheap because the price is constantly falling. Now you tell us it won't happen and it will be more expensive after all ? I have just been correcting some of the fossil industry generated FUD you keep falling for and posting. The most likely scenario is that electricity will be abundant, as overcoming the variability of renewables without vast amounts of storage will require us to build a large excess of supply. Tariffs will reflect this with very cheap prices available to those who can shift their electricity and high peak rates for power used at times when supply is low (Even today Octopus is offering a 100% renewable tariff with off peak/off peak power at 25p/5p kwh). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnylattej Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 17 hours ago, byron78 said: Did dinosaurs burn a lot of fossil fuels, then? No, it was their plant based diet, they f****d a lot, and methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erat_forte Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 12 hours ago, kzb said: This is a contrarian forum. No it isn't! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Boris is so concerned by the Climate Catastrophe and the future of humanity that he's just starting a new family. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 11 hours ago, markyh said: Are you suggesting the Wolly Mammoth went extinct because it got to hot for it, and maybe gradually "evolved" into the hairless, smaller elephants we have today? Hmmm. TBH i think humans will have no issues dealing with a warming climate, technology already allows us to live in extremes from the Artic to deserts, it's just that well, there will be a lot less of us, like 6.5-7 billion less. Are you suggesting we will evolve longer legs to cope with the rising sea levels. You know animals adapt gradually over time. The rate of change will not allow that adaptation. Now the key wording was 'live' not thrive. You know those arctic bases need constant resupply or they all die. Same as many deserts it is the extreme of survival not living as you know it. You can live underwater if someone pumps down oxygen and you get supplies of food. But its a slow death if it gets cut off. I don't think you've spent much time in the arctic to think tech makes it alright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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