Pmax2020 Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 With no one now disputing prices will fall, what do you guys think the absolute low will come? We were poised to upsize this summer/autumn so the crash appears to be potentially beneficial. Can a moderator add in a poll? Autumn 20, Winter 20/21, Spring 21 etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 I asked something similar a while back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 4+ years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirtysteve Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 When you get your answer can you find out Saturdays lottery numbers next? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted June 5, 2020 Share Posted June 5, 2020 There are quite a few on here who think falls will be negligible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin_JD Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 I reckon a dip before price stagnation for the next few years is likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Martin_JD said: I reckon a dip before price stagnation for the next few years is likely. The usual pattern. In 2008/9 I do recall the word biflation being used. By rights prices should collapse, but what we are experiencing is a process by which debt (especially if borrowed to buy equities) will get eroded by inflation, whereas debt incurred to support day to day living costs by the less well off will just feel like a heavier burden as things like food and housing cost rise! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin_JD Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said: The usual pattern. In 2008/9 I do recall the word biflation being used. By rights prices should collapse, but what we are experiencing is a process by which debt (especially if borrowed to buy equities) will get eroded by inflation, whereas debt incurred to support day to day living costs by the less well off will just feel like a heavier burden as things like food and housing cost rise! Agreed, i think this is a fairly likely outcome, and one that isn't going to please most people here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Martin_JD said: Agreed, i think this is a fairly likely outcome, and one that isn't going to please most people here. Yes, it gave me the idea of starting a new thread on biflation. It was a topic the forum discussed properly 10 years ago. I like it when we get some heavy weight discussions going! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougless Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 And I thought this thread was about one of the finest albums ever made by the great Robert Wyatt - Rock Bottom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 (edited) On 04/06/2020 at 20:13, Pmax2020 said: With no one now disputing prices will fall, what do you guys think the absolute low will come? We were poised to upsize this summer/autumn so the crash appears to be potentially beneficial. Can a moderator add in a poll? Autumn 20, Winter 20/21, Spring 21 etc I remember reading a study into house price corrections. Sorry can't find a link now. The report looked at 50 house price corrections. On average the corrections lasted between 3-7 years. IIRC they typically lost 70% of the price gains. However, this pandemic is a once-in-a-lifetime event. So I don't think there is going to be anything average, or typical, about the next few years. Having said that, we had a record boom and bust in Northern Ireland. House prices tripled in 7 years. Then halved again in 5 years. The majority of the price falles happened in the first 3 years. House prices in Northern Ireland stopped falling at the same time employment started rising. So unemployment may be a key factor to look at. Edited June 6, 2020 by Belfast Boy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MARTINX9 Posted June 6, 2020 Share Posted June 6, 2020 (edited) The thread heading reminded me of the UKs 1977 Eurovision entry the year after we got bailed out by the IMF. Where are we - Rock bottom Tragedies we got em Remedies - why don’t we Rub it all out and start it again! Edited June 6, 2020 by MARTINX9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 On 06/06/2020 at 14:17, Belfast Boy said: I remember reading a study into house price corrections. Sorry can't find a link now. The report looked at 50 house price corrections. On average the corrections lasted between 3-7 years. IIRC they typically lost 70% of the price gains. A Fibonacci retracement of 62% of the prior move is norm in markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 8 hours ago, Killer Bunny said: A Fibonacci retracement of 62% of the prior move is norm in markets. ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Another one who knows nothing about markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 46 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said: Another one who knows nothing about markets. ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Rock bottom......limited to one each, not to be greedy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msi Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 36 minutes ago, winkie said: Rock bottom......limited to one each, not to be greedy now. yours with only 200 squats a day for a month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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