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With no one now disputing prices will fall, what do you guys think the absolute low will come?

We were poised to upsize this summer/autumn so the crash appears to be potentially beneficial.

Can a moderator add in a poll? Autumn 20, Winter 20/21, Spring 21 etc

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1 hour ago, Martin_JD said:

I reckon a dip before price stagnation for the next few years is likely.   


The usual pattern. In 2008/9 I do recall the word biflation being used.

By rights prices should collapse, but what we are experiencing is a process by which debt (especially if borrowed to buy equities) will get eroded by inflation, whereas debt incurred to support day to day living costs by the less well off will just feel like a heavier burden as things like food and housing cost rise!

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1 minute ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:


The usual pattern. In 2008/9 I do recall the word biflation being used.

By rights prices should collapse, but what we are experiencing is a process by which debt (especially if borrowed to buy equities) will get eroded by inflation, whereas debt incurred to support day to day living costs by the less well off will just feel like a heavier burden as things like food and housing cost rise!

Agreed, i think this is a fairly likely outcome, and one that isn't going to please most people here.

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6 minutes ago, Martin_JD said:

Agreed, i think this is a fairly likely outcome, and one that isn't going to please most people here.

Yes, it gave me the idea of starting a new thread on biflation. It was a topic the forum discussed properly 10 years ago. I like it when we get some heavy weight discussions going!

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On 04/06/2020 at 20:13, Pmax2020 said:

With no one now disputing prices will fall, what do you guys think the absolute low will come?

We were poised to upsize this summer/autumn so the crash appears to be potentially beneficial.

Can a moderator add in a poll? Autumn 20, Winter 20/21, Spring 21 etc

I remember reading a study into house price corrections. Sorry can't find a link now. The report looked at 50 house price corrections. On average the corrections lasted between 3-7 years. IIRC they typically lost 70% of the price gains. 

However, this pandemic is a once-in-a-lifetime event. So I don't think there is going to be anything average, or typical, about the next few years.

Having said that, we had a record boom and bust in Northern Ireland. House prices tripled in 7 years. Then halved again in 5 years. The majority of the price falles happened in the first 3 years.

House prices in Northern Ireland stopped falling at the same time employment started rising. So unemployment may be a key factor to look at.

Edited by Belfast Boy
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The thread heading reminded me of the UKs 1977 Eurovision entry the year after we got bailed out by the IMF.

Where are we - Rock bottom 

Tragedies we got em

Remedies - why don’t we Rub it all out and start it again!

Edited by MARTINX9
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On 06/06/2020 at 14:17, Belfast Boy said:

I remember reading a study into house price corrections. Sorry can't find a link now. The report looked at 50 house price corrections. On average the corrections lasted between 3-7 years. IIRC they typically lost 70% of the price gains. 

A Fibonacci retracement of 62% of the prior move is norm in markets.

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  • 417 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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