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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by dirtysteve

  1. I’d guess it’s just a bad choice of words or complete misunderstanding of interest, inflation, returns, dividends terminology etc. I think many boomers could easily live quite comfortably off the return off their I’ll gained assets. Be that rental income from 2nd (3rd and 4th) homes, dividends, or interest. Many will be able to live without touching capital whilst that capital also still grows roughly inline with inflation after taking the ‘interest’. I’m sure many have good accountants sorting the important stuff for them whilst they happily spend the ‘interest’.
  2. Won’t be a single pin but a multitude of things adding up. When finances are stretched already… Gas and electricity prices increasing 60% NI increasing 1.25% council tax set to increase 5%+ furlough ending Many sectors seeing redundancies still and no signs of pay rises (eg aviation). inflation still rising. And eventually rate rises. The problem is for non homeowners that any pop might only bring it back to Pre covid levels at best.
  3. Your poll needed a Flat option. So I went other. I don’t see much change over the next 6 months.
  4. Very good point. And congrats. I completed a few months back after a few years out of the market and after taking advantage of the full SD cut it felt good telling my nightmare landlord where to go. Maybe I got unlucky with my last landlord but after that renting experience I wouldn’t wish renting on my worst enemy.
  5. Here’s its Zoopla listing as that shows its previous sold price. Assuming he accepts an offer of say 650 (if he’s lucky) then that’s quite an investment he made back in 2015 😂 https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/55929176?utm_source=v1:5bWFDybfWx7C7AGpeagt7mP3PgcqjuqJ&utm_medium=api Last sold 21 July 15 - £800,000
  6. Is this actually serious? Did you take your teacher an apple too?
  7. If it was that simple then why the differences. Each bank still has room to make their own decisions. Money is cheap and is staying that way. It’s been cheap 13 years and could easily be another 13. Keep paying someone else’s mortgage though 😉
  8. Lol. Can we talk about this again after your given 3 months 😂 or even 6 or 12 months or even a few years. Take a look at the rates available on 5 year fixed rate mortgages. For those with a big deposit you can borrow huge sums for less than 1.3%! Now as amazing as some are on here I think the experts in charge of setting those rates are probably better informed and better placed to call where interest rates are heading. If they agreed with you that rates were gonna rise in 3 months I don’t think we’d see such low fixed rates now. Ten year fixes are around 2% (for large deposits again) so the experts arent as confident over that time frame but still pretty sure they can make money lending at a lowly 2%. Other than supply and demand the biggest factor by far controlling house prices is interest rates. And unfortunately the experts all see them staying low. And I agree. Even as inflation creeps higher interest rates will stay low. And in that environment I’m happy being a home owner with a big mortgage fixed for 5 years. Covid was not the black swan and the title of this thread is correct.
  9. With Britain’s EU exit completed and Covid-19 vaccinations rolling ahead, analysts foresee a strong rebound in 2021 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-property-market-looks-poised-for-a-post-brexit-comeback-11612875600 https://apple.news/AfGiaGcKaTbKWNRTjzl1TeA
  10. I’m not sure what was so difficult to understand. I listed several reasons why house prices won’t CRASH. That is after all what this forum is called and what so many of you are predicting. But then you’ve been saying that for the best part of 20 years 🤣 Keep dreaming boys. And keep paying someone else’s mortgage. The fact so many of you turn to insults shows you’ve lost the argument. Although for that there is no doubt. Twenty years calling a crash without one shows that you would have been better off reading mumsnet.
  11. Now now the c*ntofnowhere. Quite an apt name if you’re a lifelong renter. Who’s Fergus? Sounds a nice guy. I’ve been here 13 years but posted so little as for 11 of those years I’ve happily owned and done very nicely from it so why would I waste my time here. Those who have been here as long or longer and never owned have quite clearly messed up spectacularly and no one can deny that. Praying for a crash in the hope of redeeming oneself is understandable. House prices may edge slightly lower but they certainly won’t crash. With interest rates so low interest on a mortgage can be significantly lower than renting (obviously depending on deposit) and house prices are actually still quite affordable for many. A period of inflation is also on the way. That will cause an element of panic buying as people don’t want to sit on cash and watch it’s value erode instead of owning and have their debt effectively reduced by inflation. Immigration will be higher again due to the Hong Kong issue and general movement of people resuming after covid. lock down will end and optimism and spending will boom. I’d rather be owning for the upturn. I’m lucky. I earn well in to the top 1% of earners and the homes I look at simply won’t be impacted. Nice detached houses in desirable locations will always be in demand and a lot of the rich got even richer this last year. There may be struggles at the bottom of the market with job losses and cladding issues but there’s still enough demand to snap up anything half decent should it fall. The government will also keep supporting the market in various schemes. Any falls can only ever be temporary in a near zero interest rate and inflationary environment. If you get your falls don’t miss them! It won’t last. I’m predicting the next 12 months will see -8 to +5% house price change. If I had to pick then maybe -2 ish. Hardly a crash. Good luck all. Except the Count obvs 🤣
  12. Unemployment not that high considering. Will be plenty of new jobs in the up turn. I know more people (me included) who have made more money this year than ever before than I know people who have lost their job. Many hospitality and retail staff were never going to be home owners.
  13. Lol you lot are funny. You need to divide your expectations by a factor of 10 and then you’ll be close. Yes 2-8% not the dreamy 20-80% you’re hoping for. And that’s worse case. I can also see flat house prices or small rises. When lockdown ends and the spring sunshine arrives the buyers will be back out in force, interest rates will still be low, pent up demand will be there, the Hong Kong will be on their way and house prices will be back to situation normal. You all know I’m right, but just don’t want to admit it.
  14. £2M for a house that must be so ugly they can’t even provide an outside picture 🤣 And no real garden. Jokers.
  15. I’m also ten years+ younger than a boomer. Fifteen years too late actually after googling the boomer years.
  16. Nearer 1.5. Can’t sit on the sidelines forever. I blame the wife and M-I-L. They don’t have the patience of us men. I also thought it safer to have property and debt in the current climate than large savings and investments in reach of a government I don’t trust. Sold prices may not have fallen (yet) in the leafy suburbs of Surrey and the SE where I’ve been looking but I noticed asking prices of many good houses had been adjusted to more realistic levels and a few sellers were happy to entertain low offers, especially as we had no chain. I’m happy with the price we paid and believe it cushions us from modest falls if they should happen. I’ve been on this forum since 2007 and only the last few years I’ve not been a homeowner. Landlords are hard work and greedy and I sleep easier at night owning.
  17. I don’t think I was wrong really. I thought prices would fall. In a lot of areas they have. I also said a few times in a few threads that I never saw desirable homes in desirable locations falling in price. I never saw a “crash” coming. I bided my time over the summer, invested my deposit well and I’ve since bought a nice house for £270,000 less than the initial asking price. As I said above I can’t see it falling in value whilst ever interest rates are below 1%. Especially as I think I got a bargain. Considering a bank lent me several hundred k at 1.4% fixed for 5 years I’d say they (the experts (the banks)) also don’t see interest rates rising much in the next 5 years. house prices need to fall. Unfortunately for the hardcore masses on here desireable houses won’t. Flammable clad rabbit hutch flats and overpriced dives maybe though.
  18. Was more just a dig at the like of markyh. He thinks he’s billy big ******** because he has a few bitcoin and Tesla shares and lives in a £600k house. I find his bragging quite funny. In fairness he has got big balls holding Tesla at $700 a share and not cashing in before they crash.
  19. My SIPP only up 15% this year but then it is still 7 figures Makes me laugh some of the bragging on this forum.
  20. House prices won’t crash whilst interest rates remain below 1%. The end.
  21. Spend the £20k/year on a bigger mortgage for yourself in a nicer area in a bigger house in the catchment to the best state school you can find. Ten years later sell that house for huge profit. Your child will be happier, live in a nicer house and receive a good free education. My mortgage is huge (affordable) but I’m in the catchment to extremely good state schools in a 5 bed detached house in a desirable location. Some of my colleagues live in much smaller houses in less desirable areas but choose to blow £50k a year on their 2 kids education. Baffles me.
  22. Not sure what you’re saying there. The truth is this whole forum is house price obsessed and mostly expecting/wanting/needing/praying for a HPC. But since 2004 decent houses have been on a one way track and it’s been a very uphill track. Since 2004 I’ve owned 14 of the 16 years and done nicely from it. I’ve been hesitant at times through paying too much attention to these forums and maybe even lost out through delaying purchases at times because of worrying about things read on here. No one can deny that anyone not buying since 2004 has made a huge mistake and if they posted on here along the way and encouraged others to follow their mistakes then that’s a shame. Yes some house prices are falling but if you’ve avoided leasehold, cladding or undesireable overpriced houses then buying has never been a bad decision. And I couldn’t care less if there’s a crash in 2021 anyway as I’m still happier owning than renting and can afford to sit any falls out, but I really can’t see it. The economy will surge back and interest rates will stay low. Therefore I see no chance of significant falls on anything remotely desirable. Small leasehold tower block with cladding are fcuked but desirable houses will be just fine.
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