UK offer of citizenship to Hong Kong BNO as a way to prop up London real estate sales?

[Trampa501]

39 minutes ago, hayder said:

Looks like we have some competition. 

Australia is throwing its hat in the game to try and pick up the Hong Kong BNO people. 

I wonder if we'll see Canada also coming in to try and pickup a morsel to keep their real estate ponzi going?

 

The only thing the CCP can do at this point is capital controls to stop the flow of money out... 

Which will be an enormous boost for crypto currencies. If you're so inclined.

Interesting point.

As mentioned above it's not realistic to expect 3 million Hong Kong Chinese to suddenly fly into London City airport.

However (as pointed out above), even a relatively small number of richer Hong Kong folk moving here and buying up property will keep the bubble-racket going. Just ten or twenty big sales a month will probably have an impact in central London, and convince the sheeple that property prices will always keep going up and up and up...

[RentingForever]

6 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

Interesting point.

As mentioned above it's not realistic to expect 3 million Hong Kong Chinese to suddenly fly into London City airport.

However (as pointed out above), even a relatively small number of richer Hong Kong folk moving here and buying up property will keep the bubble-racket going. Just ten or twenty big sales a month will probably have an impact in central London, and convince the sheeple that property prices will always keep going up and up and up...

...and if it's the richer ones coming here then they'll vote Tory.

[sammersmith]

13 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

even a relatively small number of richer Hong Kong folk moving here and buying up property will keep the bubble-racket going

If, and it is a big 'if', they can liquidate and get their money out of HK and it isn't tied up in something China can confiscate in retaliation then: 

The rich will either already have property in London or not be prepared to leave their fortune in HK 

The poor won't be able to afford London, and they won't be interested in living in regional cities or the countryside.  

Edited July 2, 2020 by sammersmith

[Killer Bunny]

https://twitter.com/LONGCONVEXITY/status/1278659764394889216?s=20https://twitter.com/LONGCONVEXITY/status/1278659764394889216?s=20

Gosh, they might not travel 8,000 miles but, instead, stay in SE Asia.

[Trump Invective]

Nobody is going anywhere 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

4 minutes ago, Killer Bunny said:

https://twitter.com/LONGCONVEXITY/status/1278659764394889216?s=20https://twitter.com/LONGCONVEXITY/status/1278659764394889216?s=20

Gosh, they might not travel 8,000 miles but, instead, stay in SE Asia.

Heard from ex-colleague. His blue chip HK contact says there are many people now seriously considering BJ's offer. It's very much game on to move before further crackdowns.

[debtlessmanc]

To add to what I posted earlier, I am told that, despite CV-19, there has been a massive increase in applications to study at my University from overseas. China yes but all over SE asia and the subcontinent. A drop in the pound and changes to the work visa rule i suspect. Naturally this gives china the most leverage- ban students from the UK.

I am a cynic about most things but the UK could probably increase overseas earnings from education into the £100bn/yr+ range if it wanted.

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[shlomo]

5 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

To add to what I posted earlier, I am told that, despite CV-19, there has been a massive increase in applications to study at my University from overseas. China yes but all over SE asia and the subcontinent. A drop in the pound and changes to the work visa rule i suspect. Naturally this gives china the most leverage- ban students from the UK.

I am a cynic about most things but the UK could probably increase overseas earnings from education into the £100bn/yr+ range if it wanted.

 

That is physically impossible, most world economies are being trashed, we look good from the outside.

[debtlessmanc]

Just now, shlomo said:

That is physically impossible, most world economies are being trashed, we look good from the outside.

why? we already take in about 100,000 a year at £25k p.a. each that is £25Bn now, the demand is there if we supply it. alternatively charge £50k p.a. (as the ivy league does in the US)

[shlomo]

1 minute ago, debtlessmanc said:

why? we already take in about 100,000 a year at £25k p.a. each that is £25Bn now, the demand is there if we supply it. alternatively charge £50k p.a. (as the ivy league does in the US)

I have always wondered that are most of these 100k students finding employment equal to the amount of money spent, or are they looking at historical data and thinking it will all work out.

[hayder]

1 minute ago, shlomo said:

I have always wondered that are most of these 100k students finding employment equal to the amount of money spent, or are they looking at historical data and thinking it will all work out.

like real estate... it works on the belief derived from past perfomance.

[debtlessmanc]

6 minutes ago, shlomo said:

I have always wondered that are most of these 100k students finding employment equal to the amount of money spent, or are they looking at historical data and thinking it will all work out.

i deal with them day in day out. Their reasons are varied, the most common theme though is an english speaking degree  (in "mandarin" english) from a reputabile university and 1-4 years living in the west (my experience is that they love it here). I am not expert on china, but a chinese professor told me that Mao had essentially bull dozed 99% of old china in the cultural revolution, they like to tramp around the sites of the UK and europe and take their time over it. As to their aspirations, a fair number are wealthy and intend to run dads business in due course, greeting visitors in good english and discussing how Man U played on saturday. Others are poorer, they often just want to stay in a western country.

Edited July 2, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[shlomo]

3 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

i deal with them day in day out. Their reasons are varied, the most common theme though is an english speaking degree  (in "mandarin" english) from a reputabile university and 1-4 years living in the west (my experience is that they love it here). I am not expert on china, but a chinese professor told me that Mao had essentially bull dozed 99% of old china in the cultural revolution, they like to tramp around the sites of the UK and europe and take their time over it. As to their aspirations, a fair number are wealthy and intend to run dads business in due course, greeting visitors in good english and discussing how Man U played on saturday. Others are poorer, they often want to stay in a western country.

Thats only the Chinese what about the other groups, you have an enquiring mind your opinions must be Jewels.

[debtlessmanc]

2 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Thats only the Chinese what about the other groups, you have an enquiring mind your opinions must be Jewels.

not sure about my opinions being Jewels, but there has to be some reason for the popularity. It is mostly the english language thing okay, and the multiculturism they like that too.

Edited July 2, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[shlomo]

5 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

not sure about my opinions being Jewels, 

I could phrase it older and more experienced.

[Trampa501]

32 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

not sure about my opinions being Jewels, but there has to be some reason for the popularity. It is mostly the english language thing okay, and the multiculturism they like that too.

America suffers because of their gun culture, plus their fees are high. Their city streets are not seen as safe by Chinese visitors (or anyone really). Of course America is more than just downtown LA or Chicago, but the image of gun-toting Americans is fairly widespread.

[Roman Roady]

Does anyone know what proportion of Chinas foreign reserves are in GBP? Or how much UK debt they own?

If substantial they could sell....good luck financing this past few months via borrowing then.

Perhaps they might reveal their true Gold holding and allow inspection.

Personally, I think that the sooner China is provoked the better.

[captainb]

10 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Does anyone know what proportion of Chinas foreign reserves are in GBP? Or how much UK debt they own?

If substantial they could sell....good luck financing this past few months via borrowing then.

Perhaps they might reveal their true Gold holding and allow inspection.

Personally, I think that the sooner China is provoked the better.

Vast majority is USD. A mass sell off is just shooting yourself in the foot. 

Even those economists who see it as a real "concern" concede the net impact of a mass sell off would be less chinese goods exported. Hardly a massive victory.

[hayder]

15 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

Does anyone know what proportion of Chinas foreign reserves are in GBP? Or how much UK debt they own?

If substantial they could sell....good luck financing this past few months via borrowing then.

Perhaps they might reveal their true Gold holding and allow inspection.

Personally, I think that the sooner China is provoked the better.

I don't think they hold it as a reserve currency as such. 

But a lot of their money finds its way into inflating UK property and university fees... that's the trade "exchange" that happens with the UK essentially. Since most of it comes via HK or Singapore or Dubai and is private capital rather than state capital, I think its difficult for them to stem that money from coming to the UK.

i.e. an enterprising agent can setup a "REIT" in Germany... and chinese money floods into it, and it buys up flats in London.


As long as London property is "an asset class" (as Bojo said when he was mayor), Chinese capital will find its way in to inflate it. The only effective stemming of it would be to have a 90% tax on capital appreciation for properties over £400K. That would kill it.

Edited July 2, 2020 by hayder

[captainb]

2 minutes ago, hayder said:

I don't think they hold it as a reserve currency as such. 

But a lot of their money finds its way into inflating UK property and university fees... that's the trade "exchange" that happens with the UK essentially. Since most of it comes via HK or Singapore or Dubai and is private capital rather than state capital, I think its difficult for them to stem that money from coming to the UK.

i.e. an enterprising agent can setup a "REIT" in Germany... and chinese money floods into it, and it buys up flats in London.


As long as London property is "an asset class" (as Bojo said when he was mayor), Chinese capital will find its way in to inflate it. The only effective stemming of it would be to have a 90% tax on capital appreciation for properties over £400K. That would kill it.

Hmmm even in the highly unlikely event of that happening. Logically not really. People would still differentiate between a house in Kensignton and a current £400k flat in croydon and bid up knowing the tax - and that something that extreme might change.

Even when tax rates on income above £100k were 99% people still earnt £110k, £250k etc. Just ask the beatles. 

 

[shlomo]

19 minutes ago, hayder said:

As long as London property is "an asset class" (as Bojo said when he was mayor), Chinese capital will find its way in to inflate it. The only effective stemming of it would be to have a 90% tax on capital appreciation for properties over £400K. That would kill it.

Or if some fiendish plot to create cornovirus that would stop travel, why would the rich invest in London if they cannot come to London, the flow o funds to London has stopped.

[winkie]

56 minutes ago, Trampa501 said:

America suffers because of their gun culture, plus their fees are high. Their city streets are not seen as safe by Chinese visitors (or anyone really). Of course America is more than just downtown LA or Chicago, but the image of gun-toting Americans is fairly widespread.

Guns are scary... no body likes the thought of being shot by some nutter.

[hayder]

5 hours ago, shlomo said:

Or if some fiendish plot to create cornovirus that would stop travel, why would the rich invest in London if they cannot come to London, the flow o funds to London has stopped.

Covid will be over by next spring. Ponzi scheme will resume even before that.

Edited July 2, 2020 by hayder

[Hecto]

5 hours ago, winkie said:

Guns are scary... no body likes the thought of being shot by some nutter.

Crossbows are back, check this  out, less than £400  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BP3ZD4E4BaY

[regprentice]

Article in today's ft

Hong Kongers eye UK property as they weigh escape routes - British homes are relatively cheap for city residents unnerved by new security law

The 47-year-old Mr Lee calculates that selling his 800 sq ft flat in a suburb 45 minutes from Hong Kong’s financial district would generate enough money to buy up to three semi-detached houses in Kent, his target destination

He said rocketing property prices in recent years meant his home is worth about HK$8m ($1m, £810,000), outpacing price gains in Britain.  “With the money I’ll have left from selling my property in Hong Kong and buying a semi-detached house in Kent, I will still have a few million Hong Kong dollars, so could buy another apartment as an investment,” said Mr Lee, who sources food and beverages from around Asia for retailers. His money would go even further in Scotland, but his wife vetoed his plan to move to Inverness after realising how far north it was. As a compromise, Mr Lee hopes to buy an investment property in Glasgow, where he attended university.

..... 

Hong Kongers are already familiar with buying UK property and it ranks as the top overseas investment market, according to Mei Wong, head of international sales with Knight Frank. The historical link between the UK and Hong Kong, as well as its quality schools and universities and a weak pound, add to its attraction, Ms Wong said.  Interest in UK property is now higher compared with six months ago, with about 15 to 20 per cent more inquiries from potential buyers, she said. Most buyers have a budget of about £500,000 to £1m.