Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[GeneCernan]

On 12/10/2021 at 18:40, FallingAwake said:

Yes, you did. Excellent.

Lots of people can't conceive that "freedom passes" (I prefer this term as it really highlights the doublespeak) are meant to be about more than merely access to nightclubs and large sporting events, mainly because the implementation of these things looks bumbling, uncoordinated and fairly inept.

If every country on earth implemented them harshly on, say, 25th October 2021, it would look highly coordinated, and even the most sceptical person would think something was up.

So it has to be drip, drip, two steps forward one step back, add conditions, remove a condition, some countries going full-on totalitarian, others (like the UK) showing more restraint for now, to give other countries something to "aim for" if they get fully vaccinated ("look at the freedoms the UK has!")... so it all seems like a natural progression, and so people can be gradually bought-into the system.

This is, in my opinion, what is going on at the moment. It's not just about vaccines. It's about an attempt to make people compliant, ready for whatever is to come.

Couldn't agree more. 

What scares me most is how willing people are to go along with all of this. 

Read the facts, make your choice, have a vaccine or don't. That should be the end of it. I am not responsible for your health, you are not responsible for mine. 

[Andy T]

5 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

We went out for a Chinese yesterday, all you can eat buffet place (I prefer those because you can serve yourself exactly what you want). Out of the 100+ customers you could count the number wearing masks on the fingers of one hand. All the staff were though. Social distancing non existent.

About the same ratio as Tories vs others in the packed HoC today, also zero social distancing.

I remember sometime last year when restaurants reopened, the Chinese buffet places had a different arrangement where you wrote on a card what you wanted from the buffet and they brought it to your table for you, to reduce movement and shared contact.

It seems a bit of contradiction to complain about lack of mask wearing and social distancing,when you were happy to pick up food & serving spoons that have been touched by 100’s of others dirty virus laden hands? When you could of gone to a normal restaurant and enjoyed distancing and much less touch contact with others?

[Andy T]

Was mask wearing ever made compulsory in an outdoor space in the Uk during lockdown at any point? 

Last week were I live, the public health director has ‘kindly requested that parents wear masks in the playground when collecting children’  which the school twisted into a statement that said ‘Parents MUST wear a mask in the playground’

They can ****** right off. I’d say approximately 60% of parents have passed their obedience training with flying colours.

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, Bluestone59 said:

Though I'm no fan of Dr Vernon Coleman he has a point when he says surgeries and hospitals are potentially highly dangerous locales. Stay away if possible.

Last time I was at my GP (a long time ago) I noticed they had a touch screen for patients with finger marks on the screen from previous users. All that was missing was a bowl of pub-style Bombay mix finger food beside it. Hardly sticking to form with the previous Swine flu pack of lies. In this clip someone else presses buttons for you.

[FallingAwake]

3 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Was mask wearing ever made compulsory in an outdoor space in the Uk during lockdown at any point? 

Last week were I live, the public health director has ‘kindly requested that parents wear masks in the playground when collecting children’  which the school twisted into a statement that said ‘Parents MUST wear a mask in the playground’

They can ****** right off. I’d say approximately 60% of parents have passed their obedience training with flying colours.

Not as far as I can recall. Only the "social distancing" 2m thing, where people would dance around each other in the street, putting themselves in front of cars occasionally in order to avoid a viral particle.

[anonguest]

Just now, FallingAwake said:

Not as far as I can recall. Only the "social distancing" 2m thing, where people would dance around each other in the street, putting themselves in front of cars occasionally in order to avoid a viral particle.

Not as bad as some of the nuttier/more hysterical types I came across at the peak of the mass hysteria. Those who I swear appeared to have trained themselves to visually measure and 'know' if you were so much as 1cm under the 2 metre rule. And IF you did come within, and stay, as little as 1.99 metres from them would react as if they were in potentially mortal danger.

I would just tell them that they needed to seek professional help.

[scottbeard]

24 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

Not as far as I can recall. Only the "social distancing" 2m thing, where people would dance around each other in the street, putting themselves in front of cars occasionally in order to avoid a viral particle.

When COVID very first appeared and only China had it I remember hearing of people changing from having Chinese takeaway to other takeaways “just in case” they bumped into someone from China with COVID in the restaurant.

I did try and point out that from a risk management perspective I hope they didn’t have to cross the road to get to the Chippy….

[dances with sheeple]

Looks like the media have decided that the Covid Scare is basically over, is it really though?

[FallingAwake]

3 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Looks like the media have decided that the Covid Scare is basically over, is it really though?

I doubt the Guardian and BBC think it's over. Based on the Guardian's site, it looks like we're always on the precipice of some covid disaster, as [breaking]...CASES reach the highest... since July!!! [i.e. 3 months ago  , and the majority of cases are in young people who rarely die from it.]

Sadly, the only reason this isn't over is because the vaccines are a bit naff, so people are going to need to keep shooting up. (This is assuming all of the stuff talked about by the blacklisted doctors, medics and experts aren't true.)

[dances with sheeple]

4 hours ago, Clarky Cat said:

Sadly he had Multiple Myeloma, a cancer of immune system cells that increases susceptibility to infections.

Fair enough, Bloomberg announced it with "this may fuel the debate on the efficacy of vaccines", maybe they didn`t know the full details of his illness at that point?

[anonguest]

34 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Looks like the media have decided that the Covid Scare is basically over, is it really though?

 

For me, and the rest of the family, the Covid 'scare' ended by late March 2020 - by when it was clear that this thing was far removed from being a deadly SARS like disease.  I ceased to give much notice to the endless doom porn in the media from that point on.

[anonguest]

14 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Fair enough, Bloomberg announced it with "this may fuel the debate on the efficacy of vaccines", maybe they didn`t know the full details of his illness at that point?

The media, and what passes for investigative journalism these days, more often than not doesn't know 'the full details' on a story before not only publishing but pontificating on and offering their opinions, etc.   So why would this incident/event be expected to be any different?

[dances with sheeple]

4 hours ago, Bluestone59 said:

My last visit was 31 years 4 months ago. Unless you count my attempt to register with a GP when I moved to another area. 

Reception told me they didn't have to accept me. I decided I didn't have to sign up with them.

At my age I'm getting advice to get on board, unsurprisingly. 

Though I'm no fan of Dr Vernon Coleman he has a point when he says surgeries and hospitals are potentially highly dangerous locales. Stay away if possible.

Yep, ideally you only want to go near if you are carried in unconscious, and make sure you get away as soon as possible. My last visit would be about 24 years ago and that was for a brief medical relating to a job application

[Arpeggio]

13 minutes ago, anonguest said:

For me, and the rest of the family, the Covid 'scare' ended by late March 2020 - by when it was clear that this thing was far removed from being a deadly SARS like disease.  I ceased to give much notice to the endless doom porn in the media from that point on.

Really? as early as March 2020?

March 2020 I thought: "Oh ****** not these c*nts again"

Edited October 18, 2021 by Arpeggio

[dances with sheeple]

4 minutes ago, anonguest said:

The media, and what passes for investigative journalism these days, more often than not doesn't know 'the full details' on a story before not only publishing but pontificating on and offering their opinions, etc.   So why would this incident/event be expected to be any different?

Because it provided an opportunity to slot in a statement that helps pull back from the previous, obviously now untenable, stance on vaccines/freedom passes etc. I predicted this would be happening all over the media some time ago.

[FallingAwake]

So how does this happen?

Between Weeks 37 and 40 of 2021, out of every 100,000 people, a greater proportion of vaccinated people are getting covid than unvaccinated, in ALL of the 30+ age categories! (Remember, these are "per 100,000" figures.)

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

[anonguest]

Just now, FallingAwake said:

So how does this happen?

Between Weeks 37 and 40 of 2021, out of every 100,000 people, a greater proportion of vaccinated people are getting covid than unvaccinated, in ALL of the 30+ age categories! (Remember, these are "per 100,000" figures.)

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

Errr.....can I 'Call a Friend'?  🤣

Edited October 18, 2021 by anonguest

[Bruce Banner]

2 hours ago, Andy T said:

I remember sometime last year when restaurants reopened, the Chinese buffet places had a different arrangement where you wrote on a card what you wanted from the buffet and they brought it to your table for you, to reduce movement and shared contact.

It seems a bit of contradiction to complain about lack of mask wearing and social distancing,when you were happy to pick up food & serving spoons that have been touched by 100’s of others dirty virus laden hands? When you could of gone to a normal restaurant and enjoyed distancing and much less touch contact with others?

I stayed away from buffet restaurants when they were serving the food as I much prefer to serve myself. 

Why do some people always get the wrong end of the stick and run with it? As I said to the last person who did so a few posts up, I wasn't complaining about a lack of mask wearing and social distancing, far from it. I was merely observing, in a post replying to one about blind adherence to daft slogans, that this is what is happening. Obviously, if I had any objection to it I wouldn't eat there every week.

Normally, I wouldn't dream of mentioning it but in your case, after your patronising lecture on enjoying distancing by going to a "normal" restaurant, I will make an exception and ask the question, what on earth does "could of" mean?

[yodigo]

57 minutes ago, anonguest said:

 

For me, and the rest of the family, the Covid 'scare' ended by late March 2020 - by when it was clear that this thing was far removed from being a deadly SARS like disease.  I ceased to give much notice to the endless doom porn in the media from that point on.

Should have been over for everyone when Neil "500,000 dead" Ferguson was caught breaking the rules he helped create.

And when the Nightingale hospitals were shut after a month of non use.

[anonguest]

Just now, yodigo said:

Should have been over for everyone when Neil "500,000 dead" Ferguson was caught breaking the rules he helped create.

And when the Nightingale hospitals were shut after a month of non use.

Yes. Indeed. Late March, or soon after, was about the time that incident happened IF I recall correctly.

[yodigo]

41 minutes ago, FallingAwake said:

So how does this happen?

Between Weeks 37 and 40 of 2021, out of every 100,000 people, a greater proportion of vaccinated people are getting covid than unvaccinated, in ALL of the 30+ age categories! (Remember, these are "per 100,000" figures.)

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

Notice the ** get out clause, give you the data then tell you to ignore it as it doesn't support what they actually want you to think. Mind boggling.

[Timm]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

So how does this happen?

Between Weeks 37 and 40 of 2021, out of every 100,000 people, a greater proportion of vaccinated people are getting covid than unvaccinated, in ALL of the 30+ age categories! (Remember, these are "per 100,000" figures.)

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

Are you still doing this rubbish?

The answer is that almost everyone over 30 is vaccinated. 

If 100% of over 30s were vaccinated, then 100% of cases would be in the vaccinated group.

 

Edit: I saw the response below. It makes no sense and I'm not going to reply.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Timm

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, FallingAwake said:

So how does this happen?

Between Weeks 37 and 40 of 2021, out of every 100,000 people, a greater proportion of vaccinated people are getting covid than unvaccinated, in ALL of the 30+ age categories! (Remember, these are "per 100,000" figures.)

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

Charts 4a and b don't seem to have a category for people who died with a positive specimen less than 14 days of having a second dose. Only with a positive specimen equal to or after 14 days post second dose.

Aside from that, people who had a second dose equal to or more than 14 days before a positive specimen died way more than either category for the 1st dose, which supposedly doesn't give you as much protection as not "fully vaccinated". Apart from under 18s, but many of them are only given 1 dose.

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Arpeggio

[FallingAwake]

1 minute ago, Timm said:

Are you still doing this rubbish?

The answer is that almost everyone over 30 is vaccinated. 

If 100% of over 30s were vaccinated, then 100% of cases would be in the vaccinated group.

Nope.

That's why I mentioned, "per 100,000".

Try again.

 

[FallingAwake]

Just to make it clear for people like @Timm, the "per 100,000" figures makes the absolute number of vaccinated or unvaccinated people irrelevant. That's why they started including these figures. They show a much better comparison.

If we look at the 40-49 age group, yes most are vaccinated. So yes, we'd expect to see more cases in the vaccinated (although not if it were a proper vaccine!)

But we wouldn't expect to see the vaccinated catching covid at a rate of 1,455 per 100,000 compared with the unvaccinated at 696 per 100,000.

That makes the vaccine actually worse than useless, in terms of preventing you from getting covid.

So @Timmwould be correct if we were looking at absolute case numbers. But we're not. We're looking at relative case numbers, i.e. "per 100,000".

Edited October 18, 2021 by FallingAwake
"spreading covid" to "preventing you from getting covid"