Property registrations at Land Registry plummet by 27% MoM

[Sancho Panza]

'Plummet' their words not mine.Seeming change in tone of late

Property Industry Eye 3/4/18

'The number of residential property sales received for registrations fell by more than a quarter between January and February, Land Registry data shows.

Data for February shows there were 79,203 residential sales submitted for registration, down from 108,842 in January, a 27% drop.

Of the registrations in the report, the Land Registry said 23,559 sales had taken place in February itself, of which 378 were for £1m and over.

Meanwhile, Nationwide has reported that house price growth was “subdued” in March.

Its House Price Index for March shows that annual growth slowed from 2.2% in February to 2.1%, leaving average values at £211,625.

It was described as the third consecutive month of annual falls, with a fall of 0.2% in March.

However,  looking at the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, prices were actually up annually by 2.08% and up monthly from £210,402 in February to £211,625 in March.

Regionally, London was the only part of the UK to register a fall in average prices, with an annual drop of 0.5% to £473,776.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Overall, we expect house prices to be broadly flat, with a marginal gain of around 1% over the course of 2018.”

Commenting on the figures, Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “This is another survey demonstrating the relatively volatile nature of the present housing market – up one month, down the next – as buyers and sellers come to terms with new market realities.

“Clearly prices are softening in some areas more than others and people are moving much less often because it is so expensive to do so. It is only those who are recognising the change in market conditions who are getting on with moving.”

The Nationwide figures come as mortgage approvals dipped in February, overturning a six-month high reached in January.

Bank of England data shows there were 63,910 mortgage approvals for house purchase in February, down 4.7% from the 67,110 reported the month before. It is also below the previous six-month average of 65,162.'

[Errol]

Prices 'softening'. Why can't they just say falling?

If I fall off a cliff, am I 'softening'?

Edited April 3, 2018 by Errol

[darkmarket]

15 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said:

This is another survey demonstrating the relatively volatile nature of the present housing market – up one month, down the next – as buyers and sellers come to terms with new market realities.

London is down one month, down even more the next. Seems this EA is still coming to terms with the new market realities.

[CanAffordWontPay]

Starting to see a bit of this round my neck of the woods

Does anyone know when the land registry updates with new build sales? A colleague bought a place in October and it's still not showing

[winkie]

.....low volume of homes coming onto market to sell, see prices are falling so will wait for the bounce back, no rush.......

[CanAffordWontPay]

41 minutes ago, TonyJ said:

I love the repeated 'offers over' demand, presumably it was 'offers over' at £625k and then again at £599k and then again at £585k. Why keep on saying it, when the history shows they don't mean it? It just makes them look silly. 

I guess they hope to find some poor sap who is just starting their search.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Prices 'softening'. Why can't they just say falling?

If I fall off a cliff, am I 'softening'?

When you land you will be veritably squidgy !

[chronyx]

7 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

When you land you will be veritably squidgy !

What stage of squidgification do our leading squidgonomic scientists believe we are at?

I propose unripe pear with a negative increase to old avocado

Edited April 3, 2018 by chronyx

[Sancho Panza]

3 hours ago, CanAffordWontPay said:

Starting to see a bit of this round my neck of the woods

Does anyone know when the land registry updates with new build sales? A colleague bought a place in October and it's still not showing

The bulk of registrations are done in first month,then most are through within 3 or 4.SOme registrations can tkae place very late.

 

[GreenDevil]

7 hours ago, TonyJ said:

I love the repeated 'offers over' demand, presumably it was 'offers over' at £625k and then again at £599k and then again at £585k. Why keep on saying it, when the history shows they don't mean it? It just makes them look silly. 

Offers over = vendor is a time waster (avoid)

[longgone]

7 hours ago, TonyJ said:

I love the repeated 'offers over' demand, presumably it was 'offers over' at £625k and then again at £599k and then again at £585k. Why keep on saying it, when the history shows they don't mean it? It just makes them look silly. 

i just skip past those. not being told what to do thanks 

[Fence]

20 minutes ago, longgone said:

i just skip past those. not being told what to do thanks 

Like all that "price on application" for houses and everything else.  Like I want, and have all the time in the world, to talk to some lizard.  Click, next!

PS: unless of course they're selling below MRP (still exists) and can't say it!

Edited April 4, 2018 by Fence

[hurlerontheditch]

14 hours ago, TonyJ said:

I love the repeated 'offers over' demand, presumably it was 'offers over' at £625k and then again at £599k and then again at £585k. Why keep on saying it, when the history shows they don't mean it? It just makes them look silly. 

I bought my last house 15k under the offers over price. which was  10% lower. its a nonsense game by an agent to win vendors house sale off another agent.. "we will get you over this price" when in fact , this is the highest you will ever achieve but is not really possible

[Harry Sacks]

If you are paying 3-4% on your 80% LTV and prices are "broadly flat",  that's quite a hit once you factor in RPI.

[Mrs Bear]

14 hours ago, Errol said:

Prices 'softening'. Why can't they just say falling?

If I fall off a cliff, am I 'softening'?

Yes, very irritating, but not quite as bad as 'improving' for 'going up'.  Grrr rage mad anger, as they used to say in the Beano. 

[Bland Unsight]

18 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

'Plummet' their words not mine.Seeming change in tone of late

Property Industry Eye 3/4/18

'The number of residential property sales received for registrations fell by more than a quarter between January and February, Land Registry data shows.

Data for February shows there were 79,203 residential sales submitted for registration, down from 108,842 in January, a 27% drop.

This is the Land Registry transactions lag. At the date they report many of the transactions for the latest month haven't reached them. However when they give other months for comparison they give the latest figure for that month (e.g. January as is stands at in March) not the lower figure they reported when they first reported the figure (e.g. January as it stood at the end of February).

Fuller analysis from Neal Hudson here.

 

[Freki]

13 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

Fuller analysis from Neal Hudson here.

Amazing, thanks

[Wayward]

19 hours ago, Errol said:

Prices 'softening'. Why can't they just say falling?

If I fall off a cliff, am I 'softening'?

Just be thankful they are not saying that the market is 'pausing for breathe'

[Sancho Panza]

19 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

'Plummet' their words not mine.Seeming change in tone of late

Property Industry Eye 3/4/18

 

Data for February shows there were 79,203 residential sales submitted for registration, down from 108,842 in January, a 27% drop.

Of the registrations in the report, the Land Registry said 23,559 sales had taken place in February itself, of which 378 were for £1m and over.

 

1 hour ago, Beary McBearface said:

This is the Land Registry transactions lag. At the date they report many of the transactions for the latest month haven't reached them. However when they give other months for comparison they give the latest figure for that month (e.g. January as is stands at in March) not the lower figure they reported when they first reported the figure (e.g. January as it stood at the end of February).

Fuller analysis from Neal Hudson here.

 

I think you may be reading the data wrong Beary-or I could be(huge admirer of your work on FRB/Basel 3 etc btw).

From what I can see they're talking about total transactions registered in Feb.They're not talking about transactions for feb.

Ergo if we take the Feb figure of sales registered circa 24k and apply the Neal Hudson lag (35% get registered in month of sale)multiplier of roughly 2.85 we can estimate there are going to be roughly 68,000 transactions for Feb 18.

Am I missing something here?

 

Edit to add;we'd expect sales to be lower in feb as it's a shorter month with 3 less working days than Jan

Edited April 4, 2018 by Sancho Panza

[Wayward]

1 minute ago, TonyJ said:

Or 'consolidating'.

Yes but pausing for breath is particularly annoying because it implies that the market can be compared to a runner...by running they mean considerable inflation...and pausing for breath is what you do temporarily to prepare for further more vigorous 'running'...they choose their words very carefully and the subconscious message is no accident.

[Locke]

"I'm not going to just give it away"

[Sancho Panza]

16 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

The bulk of registrations are done in first month,then most are through within 3 or 4.SOme registrations can tkae place very late.

 

I think you may have posted that before Beary as that article rings abell but I'll remember the figures this time. Roughly- month 1 35%+month 2 39%+month 3 8%=82% of sales will be registered within 3 months .That's still a significant omission of the other 18%

2 hours ago, Beary McBearface said:

Fuller analysis from Neal Hudson here.

 

Thanks for posting Beary

1 hour ago, Freki said:

Amazing, thanks

It's illuminating isn't it.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Sancho Panza

[Tulip_mania]

So from 2010-2013 transactions were in the 50-75k/month range, in 2013 that increased to 75-100k/month where it has wobbled about since, Nov 2017 is at 82k with a few stragglers to come in. Jan/Feb '17 were 72k and 74k. So we need more data, but I'm not convinced sales have reduced on what's available.

Edited April 4, 2018 by Tulip_mania