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Mr Banks

Land registry UP again 0.4%

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So no thread here (surprise surprise) about the Land Registry Figures must be getting over excited about some sham asking price index that is 27% above sale prices. But anyway nothing too unexpected for me (maybe for those who seem to have witnessed the great crash in the last week) but house prices were UP 0.4% in september to 5.4% which is an acceleration in house price growth. Yes an increase in the rate of growth from actual completed sales. My 6% guess at start of year could yet be right

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-september-2017

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Mr Banks said:

What about saved by someone quoting facts, you know real actual sales.,

Albeit selectively.

Just like the good news trolls of old, led by, if my memory serves me, Turnbull2000.

Edit: Land registry figures are certainly not "real actual facts" they are manipulated in a number of ways.

 

Edited by Bruce Banner

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38 minutes ago, Mr Banks said:

So no thread here (surprise surprise) about the Land Registry Figures must be getting over excited about some sham asking price index that is 27% above sale prices. But anyway nothing too unexpected for me (maybe for those who seem to have witnessed the great crash in the last week) but house prices were UP 0.4% in september to 5.4% which is an acceleration in house price growth. Yes an increase in the rate of growth from actual completed sales. My 6% guess at start of year could yet be right

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-september-2017

 

 

You mean apart from the one I started called Gov HPI data?

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Like it or not, the majority of indices this site monitors have, over the last three months, reported MoM and YoY rises. That is a fact.

Breaking the details down, London appears to be falling slightly, and the wider SE is stagnating. Prices elsewhere are either static or rising - offsetting the London falls. I doubt that situation is sustainable, but it is where we seem to be at right now.

What's the regional breakdown of this ONS release?

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1 minute ago, rantnrave said:

Like it or not, the majority of indices this site monitors have, over the last three months, reported MoM and YoY rises. That is a fact.

Breaking the details down, London appears to be falling slightly, and the wider SE is stagnating. Prices elsewhere are either static or rising - offsetting the London falls. I doubt that situation is sustainable, but it is where we seem to be at right now.

What's the regional breakdown of this ONS release?

"Reported" being the operative word! 

The reported figures of an index that excludes sales considered to be below market value must be taken with a pinch of salt, never mind the decimal point "errors" which turn £500,000 transactions into £5,000,000 transactions.

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1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

Albeit selectively.

Just like the good news trolls of old, led by, if my memory serves me, Turnbull2000.

 

Selectively?! the rightmove report was on her 10 mins after its release this one took ages I actually found out from the Daily Mail first! do you know another index that measures actual sales across the whole range of properties? nationwide Halifax, rightmove, RISC, homenet and any other selective index are all worthless. Land registry shows the most detailed report and they actually release the data. Surely this should be the gold standard in HPI reports. Yes I'm angry about the increasing HPI (it ruins lives mine included) but I thought HPC was a discussion site and some on here are turning it into a house prices are falling/about to fall even if the evidence showing that is dodgy at best.

And simply calling someone a troll you don't agree with isn't really a discussion. look at the predictions thread from December last year Not mentioning names as i don't want to make it personal. There is a lot of falls predicted that haven't materialized and instead of starting out from the position house prices will fall (and I want them) lets challenge these predictions, lets look at all the data especially the reports of real sales. HPC opinion (and there are loads of distinctive different opinions out there) is at odds with the mainstream economic views you cannot expect these to go unchallenged on an economics site otherwise we risk becoming the new Zerohedge.

 

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http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/root/doc/ppd

What does the Price Paid Dataset consist of?

HM Land Registry publish Price Paid Data for England and Wales on a monthly basis. New transactions are added to the existing price paid dataset which, in September 2015 contained over 20 million transactions. Price paid data is captured for single residential properties that were sold for full market value and lodged with LR for registration since 1995.

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1 minute ago, Mr Banks said:

Selectively?!  

Yes, selectively.

And simply calling someone a troll you don't agree with isn't really a discussion. 

There's an old saying.... Don't feed the trolls. That's all I have to say on the subject!

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said:

sold for full market value

An explanation of this:

There are a number of reasons that transactions are excluded from the dataset;

  • sale of part or a share of a property
  • sale of right-to-buy properties
  • transfers following divorce or by way of gift or exchange
  • transfers under Compulsory Purchase Order or by Court Order
  • transfer of more than one property as part of a portfolio
  • first registration of leases for 7 years or less
  • Additional price paid transactions valued below £10

I don't think they're up to anything sinister, just that they're defining "full market value" as anything other than the above.

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Land Reg figures represent completed sales from around 3 months previously, so presumably they reflect  offers accepted at least 2/3 months before that.  So latest figures probably reflect prices agreed May/June, which is a while ago in MSM sentiment terms, I should think. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Smiley George said:

An explanation of this:

There are a number of reasons that transactions are excluded from the dataset;

  • sale of part or a share of a property
  • sale of right-to-buy properties
  • transfers following divorce or by way of gift or exchange
  • transfers under Compulsory Purchase Order or by Court Order
  • transfer of more than one property as part of a portfolio
  • first registration of leases for 7 years or less
  • Additional price paid transactions valued below £10

I don't think they're up to anything sinister, just that they're defining "full market value" as anything other than the above.

Repossessions and BTL portfolio sales are excluded.

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13 minutes ago, Mrs Bear said:

Land Reg figures represent completed sales from around 3 months previously, so presumably they reflect  offers accepted at least 2/3 months before that.  So latest figures probably reflect prices agreed May/June, which is a while ago in MSM sentiment terms, I should think. 

 

Yes, that too.

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18 minutes ago, Mrs Bear said:

Land Reg figures represent completed sales from around 3 months previously, so presumably they reflect  offers accepted at least 2/3 months before that.  So latest figures probably reflect prices agreed May/June, which is a while ago in MSM sentiment terms, I should think. 

 

LSL Acadata is based on Land Registry but somehow interpolates for the lag in data coming in. Here is there October 2017 chart comparing indices

image.png.069bb546f5f4d01de4c90e60b40ef82a.png

they report 0% MOM.

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We didn’t have a thread showing Land Reg data one whole hour after it had been released and I for one am glad that Mr Banks was on hand to be a dïck about it.

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13 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

We didn’t have a thread showing Land Reg data one whole hour after it had been released and I for one am glad that Mr Banks was on hand to be a dïck about it.

Glad to be on hand and get this important report discussed. No need for your offensive language though although perhaps you are just upset about being wrong again for another month.

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20 minutes ago, nickb1 said:

LSL Acadata is based on Land Registry but somehow interpolates for the lag in data coming in. Here is there October 2017 chart comparing indices

image.png.069bb546f5f4d01de4c90e60b40ef82a.png

they report 0% MOM.

Good to see the ONS leading the charge with their new 'geometric' hpi index. :rolleyes:

Complete bs, of course. Same as before.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/26/official-house-price-figures-overstate-growth-say-property-experts/

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1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Albeit selectively.

Just like the good news trolls of old, led by, if my memory serves me, Turnbull2000.

Edit: Land registry figures are certainly not "real actual facts" they are manipulated in a number of ways.

 

Fake News ?

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25 minutes ago, Mr Banks said:

Glad to be on hand and get this important report discussed. No need for your offensive language though although perhaps you are just upset about being wrong again for another month.

Not upset at all, just saying what I see. Fully expected this to be up and it confirms what I’m seeing in my area.

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33 minutes ago, Mr Banks said:

Glad to be on hand and get this important report discussed. No need for your offensive language though although perhaps you are just upset about being wrong again for another month.

Oh hi

On 11/11/2017 at 8:15 AM, Lavalas said:

Latest Rightmove on Monday and Land Reg on Tuesday.

Expect disappointment.  

 

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53 minutes ago, nickb1 said:

LSL Acadata is based on Land Registry but somehow interpolates for the lag in data coming in. Here is there October 2017 chart comparing indices

image.png.069bb546f5f4d01de4c90e60b40ef82a.png

they report 0% MOM.

I read somewhere in June 2016 that all the dooms day brexit house price crashing 10-15% would be true, but not in the terms of falls but in terms of sitting still before going back up. They would just be 10-15% from where it would have been if brexit didn't happen on HPI. Going by the chart, this looks like it could be true, unfortunately.

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4 minutes ago, Scramz said:

I read somewhere in June 2016 that all the dooms day brexit house price crashing 10-15% would be true, but not in the terms of falls but in terms of sitting still before going back up. They would just be 10-15% from where it would have been if brexit didn't happen on HPI. Going by the chart, this looks like it could be true, unfortunately.

What?

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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