Land registry UP again 0.4%

[Si1]

2 minutes ago, anonlymouse said:

I think Scramz is saying that  what was presented as 10-15% falls would actually be 10-15% lower growth.

Ah. Wonder which source said that?

[Scramz]

Just now, anonlymouse said:

I think Scramz is saying that  what was presented as 10-15% falls would actually be 10-15% lower growth.

That's it, you explained it better than me. 10-15% drop on what it would have been, not 10-15% drop in current prices.

I find it hard to gain real sentiment of the people in MSM. MSM changes the narrative day to day with no correlation to public sentiment. ONS figures show more sentiment as that is real sales and show what people are happy to spend.

[Scramz]

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Ah. Wonder which source said that?

I can't remember, I will dig into my browser history. Most likely no one credible but it's not a million miles away at the moment with flat prices.

[Scramz]

5 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Ah. Wonder which source said that?

Found it, was a YT video. No one credible in the slightest but a different perspective. Thinking there will be drops but not in the way most people would think. 

 

[Si1]

Just now, Scramz said:

I can't remember, I will dig into my browser history. Most likely no one credible but it's not a million miles away at the moment with flat prices.

The source would tell us the kind of method they used. If it's a random EA's excel project then a single correlation with real data does not mean much.

[Scramz]

2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The source would tell us the kind of method they used. If it's a random EA's excel project then a single correlation with real data does not mean much.

Seems it was based opinion. Like I said, not credible but different. 

[Si1]

3 minutes ago, Scramz said:

Found it, was a YT video. No one credible in the slightest but a different perspective. Thinking there will be drops but not in the way most people would think. 

 

Oh my eyes. He's a property guru who sells property investment courses

 

"Aran Curry is one of the market leading educators and ‘do it for you’ leaders in the UK property industry. An investor with twenty years’ experience, over 110 properties of his own and over 100 joint venture properties. In the last three years alone he has educated over 20,000 people and helped them on their property journey. With his team he has helped investors, clients and himself to buy over 1000 UK buy to let properties."

[Scramz]

Just now, Si1 said:

Oh my eyes. He's a property guru who sells property investment courses

 

"Aran Curry is one of the market leading educators and ‘do it for you’ leaders in the UK property industry. An investor with twenty years’ experience, over 110 properties of his own and over 100 joint venture properties. In the last three years alone he has educated over 20,000 people and helped them on their property journey. With his team he has helped investors, clients and himself to buy over 1000 UK buy to let properties."

Yeah, he is one of the helmets. slightly plausible guess though. 

[Si1]

Just now, Scramz said:

Yeah, he is one of the helmets. slightly plausible guess though. 

Where does he actually say it? Time in the video? I gave up after about a minute as it just sounded like sales patter.

[Scramz]

Just now, Si1 said:

Where does he actually say it? Time in the video? I gave up after about a minute as it just sounded like sales patter.

From 7 mins. 

[Si1]

2 minutes ago, Scramz said:

From 7 mins. 

He didn't actually have a method, it's just a guess based on the hackneyed old supply/demand argument. You've wasted several minutes of my life now. On ignore.

[Scramz]

4 minutes ago, Si1 said:

He didn't actually have a method, it's just a guess based on the hackneyed old supply/demand argument. You've wasted several minutes of my life now. On ignore.

This is another member of this forum with a sense of self–importance. I guess 25k+ posts later and still no crash in sight does that to you? No one asked you to look at it, you requested it. 

Anyway back to OP. Unfortunately, just seems like a slow down is HPI rather than stagnating or turning negative.

 

[houseface2000]

What a load of old tosh. Seen these kind of things before, just like the Tony Robins life coach crap

[Mr Banks]

6 minutes ago, Scramz said:

This is another member of this forum with a sense of self–importance. I guess 25k+ posts later and still no crash in sight does that to you? No one asked you to look at it, you requested it. 

Anyway back to OP. Unfortunately, just seems like a slow down is HPI rather than stagnating or turning negative.

 

Lol welcome to this site! There are some decent discussions occasionally and actually it's quite funny to watch some of the older posters year after year predict wrongly. We were apparently nailed on to have a crash after MMR section 24 being announced HTB phase 2 being withdrawn and second home Stamp duty being announced plus Basel 3 (coming soon I promise!) and Chinese capital controls and of course the big Brexit. In fact the old joke about HPC predicting 8 of the last 1 crashes. You just learn to ignore the more vocal posters and concentrate on those with a track record of being right most of the time.

[Si1]

30 minutes ago, Scramz said:

This is another member of this forum with a sense of self–importance. I guess 25k+ posts later and still no crash in sight does that to you? No one asked you to look at it, you requested it. 

Anyway back to OP. Unfortunately, just seems like a slow down is HPI rather than stagnating or turning negative.

 

Thanks Mr trolley troll Face.

 

Hey have you seen this YouTube video, like for real man it could be true!

(Hint, there's no tangible theory behind it and no clear trend either way). So yes you're a troll.

[Bruce Banner]

24 minutes ago, Mr Banks said:

Lol welcome to this site! There are some decent discussions occasionally and actually it's quite funny to watch some of the older posters year after year predict wrongly. We were apparently nailed on to have a crash after MMR section 24 being announced HTB phase 2 being withdrawn and second home Stamp duty being announced plus Basel 3 (coming soon I promise!) and Chinese capital controls and of course the big Brexit. In fact the old joke about HPC predicting 8 of the last 1 crashes. You just learn to ignore the more vocal posters and concentrate on those with a track record of being right most of the time.

True colours shining through .

[Scramz]

21 minutes ago, Mr Banks said:

Lol welcome to this site! There are some decent discussions occasionally and actually it's quite funny to watch some of the older posters year after year predict wrongly. We were apparently nailed on to have a crash after MMR section 24 being announced HTB phase 2 being withdrawn and second home Stamp duty being announced plus Basel 3 (coming soon I promise!) and Chinese capital controls and of course the big Brexit. In fact the old joke about HPC predicting 8 of the last 1 crashes. You just learn to ignore the more vocal posters and concentrate on those with a track record of being right most of the time.

I am starting to learn this. Even when you agree something is not credible and most likely a load of rubbish in agreement with them, they still turn their nose up at you because they 'know better', which is not justified in their track records. 

We are in here for the same purpose, HPC. You should be able to see stuff that goes against HPC as well as for, like the ONS figures you posted. I only said I read somewhere last year and was asked for it, found it, then I was bashed on it. I even said it wasn't credible in the slightest in agreement. I guess I need 25k more posts to converse with some people. Spin doctors everywhere.

These figures go gain HPC, the country needs HPC now, but it's not happening, yet!

[nickb1]

 

1 hour ago, Scramz said:

I read somewhere in June 2016 that all the dooms day brexit house price crashing 10-15% would be true, but not in the terms of falls but in terms of sitting still before going back up. They would just be 10-15% from where it would have been if brexit didn't happen on HPI. Going by the chart, this looks like it could be true, unfortunately.

The LSL Actadata, which has some claims to better credibility as a representative index, looks to be going negative YOY. But it's only a series, in itself not indicative of momentum. However, their regional data now has London -2.4% YOY, and I think it reasonable to view London as leading the rest of the market, at least in the SE and possibly nationally.

[nickb1]

9 minutes ago, nickb1 said:

 

The LSL Actadata, which has some claims to better credibility as a representative index, looks to be going negative YOY. But it's only a series, in itself not indicative of momentum. However, their regional data now has London -2.4% YOY, and I think it reasonable to view London as leading the rest of the market, at least in the SE and possibly nationally.

sorry that was incorrect. They have greater london at -1% YOY and -2.4% MOM.

 

[adarmo]

1 hour ago, Scramz said:

I read somewhere in June 2016 that all the dooms day brexit house price crashing 10-15% would be true, but not in the terms of falls but in terms of sitting still before going back up. They would just be 10-15% from where it would have been if brexit didn't happen on HPI. Going by the chart, this looks like it could be true, unfortunately.

This was my view too. I figured buy at peak fear. Maybe it was a good time to be an FTB, only time will tell. Before the vote the market in and around Reading, Berks, was insane. Properties would have 30 viewings and about 20 offers (according to one local indi agent I spoke to). For him it was actually a problem because they just didn't have the capacity to process all these people offering and re-offering. it was chaos. Overnight though the market just went quiet but it was more like some sanity was restored. Transactions are low (they were before Brexit) but the difference is now there are not 30 people running around every house the second it goes to market. 

I think the 'house prices will be 20% lower' headline trumpeted by the Remain campaign was that house prices would not be going up as quickly if we voted leave. That swung it for me. 

[nickb1]

2 minutes ago, nickb1 said:

sorry that was incorrect. They have greater london at -1% YOY and -2.4% MOM.

 

and still incorrect! I was right the first time... shoudn't be doing this at work ;-) here is their table

[adarmo]

1 hour ago, Scramz said:

This is another member of this forum with a sense of self–importance. I guess 25k+ posts later and still no crash in sight does that to you? No one asked you to look at it, you requested it. 

Anyway back to OP. Unfortunately, just seems like a slow down is HPI rather than stagnating or turning negative.

 

Seems to be a quantity over quality issue with some of them. CountofNowt is cut from the same polyester. 

[Scramz]

4 minutes ago, adarmo said:

This was my view too. I figured buy at peak fear. Maybe it was a good time to be an FTB, only time will tell. Before the vote the market in and around Reading, Berks, was insane. Properties would have 30 viewings and about 20 offers (according to one local indi agent I spoke to). For him it was actually a problem because they just didn't have the capacity to process all these people offering and re-offering. it was chaos. Overnight though the market just went quiet but it was more like some sanity was restored. Transactions are low (they were before Brexit) but the difference is now there are not 30 people running around every house the second it goes to market. 

I think the 'house prices will be 20% lower' headline trumpeted by the Remain campaign was that house prices would not be going up as quickly if we voted leave. That swung it for me. 

Yeah, based on an HPI forever this would be true, it was just a 10-15% hold on prices from where they would have been but will return to projection. Again this is based on HPI forever which can't happen. Maybe could for a large number of years but not forever. I don't fell what is £400k now will suddenly become £300k overnight, people are reluctant to drop prices but very eager to raise them. Upward pressure acts fast, downwards is slow.

[adarmo]

1 minute ago, Scramz said:

Yeah, based on an HPI forever this would be true, it was just a 10-15% hold on prices from where they would have been but will return to projection. Again this is based on HPI forever which can't happen. Maybe could for a large number of years but not forever. I don't fell what is £400k now will suddenly become £300k overnight, people are reluctant to drop prices but very eager to raise them. Upward pressure acts fast, downwards is slow.

Agreed - it's like a ratchet. People who can't sell for what they think it's worth will just stay put. This is what happened around here in the GFC. Prices didn't really budge, people just stayed put. 

HPI forever can't work but nobody wants that really. I think static prices for the next fifty years would be fine, houses slowly becoming more and more affordable. This is imho preferable to an enormous crash (no catalysts or triggers for this since we'd need an increasing number of forced sellers) and the economic havoc that would cause. I'm not sure many people could stomach another bank bailout again. 

As much as I'd have loved to pay £300k for my place I still think we did OK. 12% off the initial asking price and it'd only been on the market for a few weeks. They were forced sellers (care home) and motivated to move quickly (we had noting to sell). 

If I had a pound for every time I'd said to myself "prices are nuts they're bound to crash now" I'd probably have so much money I wouldn't be on here. I personally think TPTB would rather inflate away the debt with low interest rates. Venger might be reading this though and give the whole 9 yards on how I have some evil plan for tenants to preserve my house value (doesn't understand real terms). 

Are you looking to buy?

[Greg Bowman]

24 minutes ago, adarmo said:

This was my view too. I figured buy at peak fear. Maybe it was a good time to be an FTB, only time will tell. Before the vote the market in and around Reading, Berks, was insane. Properties would have 30 viewings and about 20 offers (according to one local indi agent I spoke to). For him it was actually a problem because they just didn't have the capacity to process all these people offering and re-offering. it was chaos. Overnight though the market just went quiet but it was more like some sanity was restored. Transactions are low (they were before Brexit) but the difference is now there are not 30 people running around every house the second it goes to market. 

I think the 'house prices will be 20% lower' headline trumpeted by the Remain campaign was that house prices would not be going up as quickly if we voted leave. That swung it for me. 

Firstly I love the count Comment re polyester sorry Count! People are properly hurting now HPI as a concept is teetering so I think growth has been paused for 2 years. Which way it will turn after is down to factors that are probably out of anyone's control

 

1 hour ago, Mr Banks said:

Lol welcome to this site! There are some decent discussions occasionally and actually it's quite funny to watch some of the older posters year after year predict wrongly. We were apparently nailed on to have a crash after MMR section 24 being announced HTB phase 2 being withdrawn and second home Stamp duty being announced plus Basel 3 (coming soon I promise!) and Chinese capital controls and of course the big Brexit. In fact the old joke about HPC predicting 8 of the last 1 crashes. You just learn to ignore the more vocal posters and concentrate on those with a track record of being right most of the time.

Okey dokey then STR'd in November 2007 and bought back in Jan 2010

Sold Jul 2017 now renting

You tell me if I have a track record or not ?

The market will stagnate at best until after Brexit but the more likely scenario is that it will drift down and even crash.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Greg Bowman