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Beaker

Winter approaching, empty houses

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I'm just curious if anyone can help..

I'm seeing about 25%* of new listings coming up on rightmove empty. I'm not sure if this is more or less than Normal?  I'm assuming is to do with S24..

 

Anyway, point is, it's well known the problems keeping an uninhabited place is good knick for viewing over winter. Anyone know if this is more or less than usual?  Looking to me like this winter's gonna be interesting in the lower parts of the market!

 

*out of last 20 listing in my town,  5 are vacant (2 bed house min)

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Not only that, I think that it invalidates insurance if a "property" (hate that word!!) Is empty for a prolonged period! 

 

Wonder how long it will be before start seeing some seriously distressed sellers!

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Distressed EAs too! I get a call from one of three EAs most days. One at 1815 yesterday... on a sunny bank holiday Friday?! Wtaf.

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we are still at the thin edge of the S24 effects, people are still loading up on BTL although the speed in which that is happening has halved so far.

Its a bit like the rockets engines have been turned off, and progress is slowing on its climb. Soon it will start to head down at rapid speed. 

The media will go into full BTL crash ramp mode in January/feb 2018, plenty of people who has plenty of BTL who will try and use fear as a method to change the policy, big 'it will crash the market' headlines. It will feed into the crash (if its not turned around which looks unlikely).

All 2018 people are seriously going to start pooing themselves as the big tax bill date will only be 12 months or less away. The gov will made an absolute killing from the bills, a much needed boost for the conservatives at that point 'balance the books'  (*sigh*)

As with the 'racier end' of risky loans all suddenly going bad, or getting bad, with defaults ramping up all this winter, so will voids. 

For the first time in 10 years we have forced sellers, who HAVE to sell as soon as they can in 2018. And that's only the BTL who realise whats coming their way, most BTL are not very clever and do not realise the axe will fall in January 2019, so come the end of 2018, maybe around October time there will be a wall of sellers.

I think best tactic right now is to keep saving and wait 18 months for this turd to pass. sentiment is going to be pretty dire on the housing market by then.

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Our tenancy agreement will expire Sep 18 (presuming our landlord doesn't serve us notice next month). Should be perfect timing.

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8 hours ago, oatbake said:

Not only that, I think that it invalidates insurance if a "property" (hate that word!!) Is empty for a prolonged period! 

 

Wonder how long it will be before start seeing some seriously distressed sellers!

Additionally, empty homes must be heated to prevent damage. How much did energy prices go up by recently?

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3 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

we are still at the thin edge of the S24 effects, people are still loading up on BTL although the speed in which that is happening has halved so far.

Its a bit like the rockets engines have been turned off, and progress is slowing on its climb. Soon it will start to head down at rapid speed. 

The media will go into full BTL crash ramp mode in January/feb 2018, plenty of people who has plenty of BTL who will try and use fear as a method to change the policy, big 'it will crash the market' headlines. It will feed into the crash (if its not turned around which looks unlikely).

All 2018 people are seriously going to start pooing themselves as the big tax bill date will only be 12 months or less away. The gov will made an absolute killing from the bills, a much needed boost for the conservatives at that point 'balance the books'  (*sigh*)

As with the 'racier end' of risky loans all suddenly going bad, or getting bad, with defaults ramping up all this winter, so will voids. 

For the first time in 10 years we have forced sellers, who HAVE to sell as soon as they can in 2018. And that's only the BTL who realise whats coming their way, most BTL are not very clever and do not realise the axe will fall in January 2019, so come the end of 2018, maybe around October time there will be a wall of sellers.

I think best tactic right now is to keep saving and wait 18 months for this turd to pass. sentiment is going to be pretty dire on the housing market by then.

Bet there are loads who don't pay tax on rent, look at grenfield tower, they don't seem to know who lots of them are or how many were living in each flat..

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Wow, you think this is only just starting? Today another 4 houses listed on rightmove(on my particular search),  2 are vacant with magnolia walls.

Feels like BTLers are dumping their houses here. My rightmove search returns highest number so far, and 10% up on last week. If only the prices were coming down though!! Still £50k too high for me to buy anything other than the trash.

Edited by Beaker

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From family experience, insurance is a problem.  Either you have to turn water off and drain everything, IIRC, which usually means no heating, or you have to guarantee that someone will be staying overnight at least once a month.  You still have to pay council tax.  

Should imagine that autumn would be a good time for anyone with their eye on an empty property, perhaps especially a probate sale.  Though there will still be idiots who will refuse to 'give it away' and will want to wait for the fabled 'spring bounce'...

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2 hours ago, Beaker said:

Wow, you think this is only just starting? Today another 4 houses listed on rightmove(on my particular search),  2 are vacant with magnolia walls.

Feels like BTLers are dumping their houses here. My rightmove search returns highest number so far, and 10% up on last week. If only the prices were coming down though!! Still £50k too high for me to buy anything other than the trash.

What area are you in Beaker?

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I'm seeing exactly the same here Beaker.  I'm just a bit further up the A1 from you, where Herts becomes Beds.

So much of the sub £250,000 stuff has the magnolia walls f**k-ugly brown doors and nasty cheap-slab patios that you only get in an ex-BTL.  And they all shout about how fantastic it is that the "property" is CHAIN FREE and IDEAL FOR A FIRST TIME BUYER.

And absolutely none of them are "giving it away".  Everyone wants to cash out at approximately double what they paid for it in 2010/2011.

It's lunacy.  Some days I see my Rightmove emails in my inbox and I'm just too depressed to even look and just click "delete"

 

 

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36 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

I'm seeing exactly the same here Beaker.  I'm just a bit further up the A1 from you, where Herts becomes Beds.

So much of the sub £250,000 stuff has the magnolia walls f**k-ugly brown doors and nasty cheap-slab patios that you only get in an ex-BTL.  And they all shout about how fantastic it is that the "property" is CHAIN FREE and IDEAL FOR A FIRST TIME BUYER.

And absolutely none of them are "giving it away".  Everyone wants to cash out at approximately double what they paid for it in 2010/2011.

It's lunacy.  Some days I see my Rightmove emails in my inbox and I'm just too depressed to even look and just click "delete"

 

 

If they've left any furniture in, another sure sign of ex BTL  is those nasty cheap Ikea wardrobes with the plastic fronts..

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1 hour ago, stop_the_craziness said:

I'm seeing exactly the same here Beaker.  I'm just a bit further up the A1 from you, where Herts becomes Beds.

So much of the sub £250,000 stuff has the magnolia walls f**k-ugly brown doors and nasty cheap-slab patios that you only get in an ex-BTL.  And they all shout about how fantastic it is that the "property" is CHAIN FREE and IDEAL FOR A FIRST TIME BUYER.

And absolutely none of them are "giving it away".  Everyone wants to cash out at approximately double what they paid for it in 2010/2011.

It's lunacy.  Some days I see my Rightmove emails in my inbox and I'm just too depressed to even look and just click "delete"

 

 

The one I love is 'ideal for investors'. No, it *was* ideal for investors. If it was still good for investors now you'd be keeping it!!

Edited by Beaker

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On 25/08/2017 at 2:19 PM, Beaker said:

I'm just curious if anyone can help..

I'm seeing about 25%* of new listings coming up on rightmove empty. I'm not sure if this is more or less than Normal?  I'm assuming is to do with S24..

 

Anyway, point is, it's well known the problems keeping an uninhabited place is good knick for viewing over winter. Anyone know if this is more or less than usual?  Looking to me like this winter's gonna be interesting in the lower parts of the market!

 

*out of last 20 listing in my town,  5 are vacant (2 bed house min)

Where i am looking there is so little supply its the same and down the probate as North of Norwich its retirement country and in the other parts NR4 and thorpe end I am looking you would have been in the 30/40s to buy in the affordable 90s so you either dead or downsizing now.

Does not stop them hanging about for ages though often at the same price as a house thats been updated in the last 15 years.

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2 hours ago, Beaker said:

The one I love is 'ideal for investors'. No, it *was* ideal for investors. If it was still good for investors now you'd be keeping it!!

Very good! I cringe when I see that too. Oh and @oatbake I also hate that use of the word "property". It's pretentious. It's a FLAT (NB: never an "apartment" unless it is in America) or a HOUSE or a BUNGALOW, thanks very much.

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The word "property" means something that you OWN, so it does have some purpose in house sales, they have to OWN the title in order to sell it.

But I think a lot of landlords like the word because it implies that they own outright, when in fact 90% of their houses are owned by a bank.

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2 hours ago, mrtickle said:

Very good! I cringe when I see that too. Oh and @oatbake I also hate that use of the word "property". It's pretentious. It's a FLAT (NB: never an "apartment" unless it is in America) or a HOUSE or a BUNGALOW, thanks very much.

Often they're not apartments even in the US.  Round my sister's way (Cambridge, Mass) they're nearly all called condos. 

Incidentally when I was having a look at prices in her area recently, first time in ages, I noticed a lot of 'multi-family' houses or buildings for sale, though they mostly looked like houses, not necessarily very big, , either. 

Is this their term for HMOs - anyone know?   

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On 26/08/2017 at 6:16 AM, jiltedjen said:

we are still at the thin edge of the S24 effects, people are still loading up on BTL although the speed in which that is happening has halved so far.

Its a bit like the rockets engines have been turned off, and progress is slowing on its climb. Soon it will start to head down at rapid speed. 

The media will go into full BTL crash ramp mode in January/feb 2018, plenty of people who has plenty of BTL who will try and use fear as a method to change the policy, big 'it will crash the market' headlines. It will feed into the crash (if its not turned around which looks unlikely).

All 2018 people are seriously going to start pooing themselves as the big tax bill date will only be 12 months or less away. The gov will made an absolute killing from the bills, a much needed boost for the conservatives at that point 'balance the books'  (*sigh*)

As with the 'racier end' of risky loans all suddenly going bad, or getting bad, with defaults ramping up all this winter, so will voids. 

For the first time in 10 years we have forced sellers, who HAVE to sell as soon as they can in 2018. And that's only the BTL who realise whats coming their way, most BTL are not very clever and do not realise the axe will fall in January 2019, so come the end of 2018, maybe around October time there will be a wall of sellers.

I think best tactic right now is to keep saving and wait 18 months for this turd to pass. sentiment is going to be pretty dire on the housing market by then.

Will the landlords have to pay the s24 tax on account with HMRC like most sole traders?

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42 minutes ago, Mrs Bear said:

Often they're not apartments even in the US.  Round my sister's way (Cambridge, Mass) they're nearly all called condos. 

Incidentally when I was having a look at prices in her area recently, first time in ages, I noticed a lot of 'multi-family' houses or buildings for sale, though they mostly looked like houses, not necessarily very big, , either. 

Is this their term for HMOs - anyone know?   

flop house.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Bear said:

Often they're not apartments even in the US.  Round my sister's way (Cambridge, Mass) they're nearly all called condos. 

Incidentally when I was having a look at prices in her area recently, first time in ages, I noticed a lot of 'multi-family' houses or buildings for sale, though they mostly looked like houses, not necessarily very big, , either. 

Is this their term for HMOs - anyone know?   

In American English a "multi family" dwelling is most often a "duplex"  This is like a semi detached in England but normally the entire building is owned by one person. Both "sides" of a duplex are often rented out. Sometimes the owner will live in one side and rent the other. Also get triplexes and fourplexes which have 3 or 4 totally independent living units.

An "apartment" is typically rented accommodation. The entire building,(can be several hundred units), is owned by a company.

A condo (condominium) is similar to an apartment but is owned by an individual who typically lives in it. Condos generally are more upscale than apartments and can be stupid expensive.

This is a few miles away from me. Would be a good place to watch the rain from Hurricane Harvey at the moment!

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Austin-TX/condo,townhouse_type/83829300_zpid/10221_rid/1000000-_price/3664

 

 

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Be interested to watch 2 houses round the corner from me, been on sale for kite flying price ,  one since February  (looks lived in and was bought last year then flipped with f*ck all done to it trying for an uplift of about 30k) , other has been on sale since last November but relisted (good old propertybee) with the same photos different EA. That one is empty and was rented out. 

A house opposite these 2 was a probate sale and needs a total and utter gutting and refitting of everything inside and out, was sold in about 3 weeks, went for 60% of the other 2 houses.  Ironically that price is what a normal family 3 bed should be  ... interesting times!

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There seem to be certain areas which must be BTL territory.  Have a look at Sandhurst in Berkshire.  There is a glut of 2/3 bed terraces up for sale and has been for a while.  Last time I looked the cheapest 2 bed was £275K and that is less than was usual until recently.  Someone will break ranks soon and we just need that one person to start an avalanche to the bottom:D

Pity I have no intention of living there but it's interesting to watch.

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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