Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Exactly stuckmojo.They were paying £50/70k for them.I knew an estate agent up here flogging them.They used to phone and buy 3 or 4 in the same street without ever coming up.They have lost a lot of money on them and probably lots of voids/none payers along the way etc.

 

hahaha, hope they got burned badly (i know the houses will have literally).

Edited September 12, 2017 by leonardratso

[winkie]

Car sharing popular.....yesterday heard one person asking another to borrow a hedge trimmer, no problem not worth you buying one when there are plenty out there that can be used..... just ask, save a fortune, make friends, share it about a bit, people generally love to help when they can and receive help in return, builds trust.

[durhamborn]

Ultimate Products shares were cut in half yesterday.They own lots of brands for kitchen items like kettles etc.An interesting line from them is this one.

“retailers are generally exercising caution with regard to their non-food buying for autumn/winter 2017. This is manifesting itself in a reluctance to commit to purchasing too far forward, with retailers instead placing orders later or buying from stock.”

The truth is margins are collapsing just as demand is being squeezed.A lot of companies will be selling for cash flow and praying things turn.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Ultimate Products shares were cut in half yesterday.They own lots of brands for kitchen items like kettles etc.An interesting line from them is this one.

“retailers are generally exercising caution with regard to their non-food buying for autumn/winter 2017. This is manifesting itself in a reluctance to commit to purchasing too far forward, with retailers instead placing orders later or buying from stock.”

The truth is margins are collapsing just as demand is being squeezed.A lot of companies will be selling for cash flow and praying things turn.

Read as....Everyone's skint.

[leonardratso]

zh - i know, i know, but sentiment;

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/brits-have-suddenly-stopped-buying-cars

But as Edwards notes, a number of other factors are colliding simultaneously to hurt UK car sales:

• The rise of apps like Uber, Gett, and Lyft are making car ownership in urban areas less necessary.
• British people have a close to zero household savings rate, and way too much debt, making further car purchases difficult.
• Consumers are afraid a recession might be coming and have reduced their spending on expensive items.
• The PCP car loan trend may have peaked, flooding the market with nearly new used cars.
• A number of car manufacturers are offering "diesel scrappage schemes" in which they take your old diesel car if you trade in for a newer, cleaner vehicle.
• The government announced it would ban sales of all petrol and diesel cars by 2040.

UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain's excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models.

Edited September 12, 2017 by leonardratso

[Majorpain]

Im enjoying reading the latest thoughts on here, it does look to me as though with the withdrawal of free QE money the market is starting to price things according to supply and demand again.

I have data from work going back to 2006, it currently contains the quotations on around 10000 individual jobs and I add to it every month.  The levels of work are lower than 2008, at our current output and potential work available I would not be surprised if the UK is currently in recession.  Usual caveat of we could just be producing things at a quality/price that the market doesn't want to buy at, but it is worryingly similar to a lot of other companies that appear on here so im fairly confident its an accurate representation.  I hope so anyway since we are using it as a forecast!

[durhamborn]

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Read as....Everyone's skint.

Imagine if people arent even replacing a kettle until its on fire what about big ticket items and eating out etc.?.Luckily companies dont have too much debt so will be able to trade through this right?

Corporate debt to GDP is at the same level as the 1990 recession triggered
the tech crash of 2000, and the 2008 housing/debt crash.

 

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Imagine if people arent even replacing a kettle until its on fire what about big ticket items and eating out etc.?.Luckily companies dont have too much debt so will be able to trade through this right?

 

As usual I get it wrong, bought a new toaster and kettle on Saturday.

[durhamborn]

Just now, Option5 said:

As usual I get it wrong, bought a new toaster and kettle on Saturday.

 I have a feeling whats really going on in that space is margins being destroyed.Its amazing how many of these companies built new warehouses the last few years,or entered into long leases on them.I know some buyers for other large appliance online retailers.They are struggling already and their dollar currency hedges have now run out .

[Mooping]

Sorry to have to ask again but any advice on a good software package for charting shares and indices etc?  Are there any free ones which are any good?

[Lavalas]

House prices keep on rising though. Land Reg +1.1% m/m for July.

[winkie]

30 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Read as....Everyone's skint.

No not everyone is skint, but those that aren't don't need to buy more stuff and eating steak everyday becomes boring.....anyway too much food, drink and sun not good for self-esteem, health and mental well-being.

[Majorpain]

Just now, Lavalas said:

House prices keep on rising though. Land Reg +1.1% m/m for July.

Yes, because the market has become distorted by people bidding houses up higher and higher with cheap money.

The market is dancing to a different tune, they just haven't noticed yet.  They soon will.

[Slimline]

1 minute ago, Lavalas said:

House prices keep on rising though. Land Reg +1.1% m/m for July.

 

Standard 

[durhamborn]

16 minutes ago, Mooping said:

Sorry to have to ask again but any advice on a good software package for charting shares and indices etc?  Are there any free ones which are any good?

http://stockcharts.com/

I use them mostly ,their free charts are very good.

[Funn3r]

4 hours ago, winkie said:

Car sharing popular.....yesterday heard one person asking another to borrow a hedge trimmer, no problem not worth you buying one when there are plenty out there that can be used..... just ask, save a fortune, make friends, share it about a bit, people generally love to help when they can and receive help in return, builds trust.

Somebody once asked to borrow my masonic drill...

[winkie]

21 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Somebody once asked to borrow my masonic drill...

....did you oblige?.....more the point, was it returned in one piece.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

4 hours ago, Mooping said:

Sorry to have to ask again but any advice on a good software package for charting shares and indices etc?  Are there any free ones which are any good?

Tradingview.com is also quite good. Only seem to need to pay if you want alerts.

[LiveinHope]

8 hours ago, winkie said:

Car sharing popular.....yesterday heard one person asking another to borrow a hedge trimmer, no problem not worth you buying one when there are plenty out there that can be used..... just ask, save a fortune, make friends, share it about a bit, people generally love to help when they can and receive help in return, builds trust.

Never buy anything new if you can buy it secondhand,

Never buy anything secondhand if you can borrow it,

And never borrow anything you don't need.

 

 

[Ash4781]

Where I am I have seen recently a number of small retailers (pet shop, shoe shops, gift shop) suddenly  cease trading and a few others suggesting they are moving online . Also a number of larger retailers are offering discounts on almost all purchases (clothes retailers 30%). I imagine what has happened is prices have risen sharply which had obliterated the small business margins as they were unable to pass on the input cost rises. I don't know if the larger  companies presumably passed on the input cost rise and are desperately offering discounts to shore up the sales volumes? 

I suppose we have seen numbers from Carphone which were dire. I recently visited a couple of Sainsbury's stores on a Saturday and they were deserted! 

Edited September 12, 2017 by Ash4781

[Fishfinger]

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Somebody once asked to borrow my masonic drill...

Is this a drill that comes with an apron and  some secret passwords?

[Lambie]

18 minutes ago, Fishfinger said:

Is this a drill that comes with an apron and  some secret passwords?

and a safe word - vigilance.

[durhamborn]

29 minutes ago, Ash4781 said:

Where I am I have seen recently a number of small retailers (pet shop, shoe shops, gift shop) suddenly  cease trading and a few others suggesting they are moving online . Also a number of larger retailers are offering discounts on almost all purchases (clothes retailers 30%). I imagine what has happened is prices have risen sharply which had obliterated the small business margins as they were unable to pass on the input cost rises. I don't know if the larger  companies presumably passed on the input cost rise and are desperately offering discounts to shore up the sales volumes? 

I suppose we have seen numbers from Carphone which were dire. I recently visited a couple of Sainsbury's stores on a Saturday and they were deserted! 

Exactly Ash.Il give an example.I used to import an item that i could get £59 after all costs that i could import for between £31 and £32 depending on the shipping cost.That same item is now £39 to import.My profit has gone from £28 a unit to £20 a unit.Down 30%.If id had a unit the bills would of all gone up.If id of had staff their wages would of all gone up.Courier costs up,etc etc.Debts? even worse.A one man band i can make a small living,but if i had any other costs like staff i couldnt swallow a cut in margin like that.They will be selling for cash flow only now,probably at a loss or perhaps just break even.Im convinced margins are being smashed down to zero across big parts of the economy,and balance sheets have a lot of debt on them,No earnings,no debt repayments.Its going to get very very nasty.

[dpg50000]

10 hours ago, leonardratso said:

zh - i know, i know, but sentiment;

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-11/brits-have-suddenly-stopped-buying-cars

But as Edwards notes, a number of other factors are colliding simultaneously to hurt UK car sales:

• The rise of apps like Uber, Gett, and Lyft are making car ownership in urban areas less necessary.
• British people have a close to zero household savings rate, and way too much debt, making further car purchases difficult.
• Consumers are afraid a recession might be coming and have reduced their spending on expensive items.
• The PCP car loan trend may have peaked, flooding the market with nearly new used cars.
• A number of car manufacturers are offering "diesel scrappage schemes" in which they take your old diesel car if you trade in for a newer, cleaner vehicle.
• The government announced it would ban sales of all petrol and diesel cars by 2040.

UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain's excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models.

This is just unbelievable. How will anyone cope with unexpected major bills? Oh I know, shove it on a credit card and end up paying for it 3 times over..... Madness.

[Digsby]

Either a rather large number of people have been reading this thread this week, or somebody else is reaching the same conclusions:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/if-everythings-so-awesome-why-did-happen-yesterday