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Majorpain

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  1. Rush? Blind panic. Especially when it sounds like the tenant has good grounds for taking you to court for breach of contract...
  2. http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2018/06/01/civils-contractor-crummock-collapses/ Been articles like this for the last two months, £68 million turnover has gone out of business since Thursday with knock on effects to creditors who at best will get there money eventually or worst lose the lot. Construction Companies are starting to run out of cash as the massive oversupply, minimum wage increases and reduction of work is biting hard.
  3. Technically IBTL is on the side of the CB, just the fed and not the rest. This is less about poking the establishment in the eye and more about making as much coin as possible off the stupidity Things are getting worse in the real world from what ive seen so far, but the timing is the critical bit and until you can predict the economic outcomes of millions of transactions that make up the UK economy your whistleing in the wind!
  4. The League/M5S have no doubt studied what happened to Greece and are doing all the right things to make sure that the same outcome doesn't happen to them. Mattarella has played this very poorly as you suggest, he has traded 3 months more Euro membership for a guarantee of making the coalition stronger and Italy's exit from the Euro much more likely.
  5. Things are going for bad to worse for Italy, eurosceptic economic minister rejected by the president and bond yields are blowing out in responce. The 10 Year is nearly up to US level for goodness sake! Debt to GDP for the club med ranking is Greece, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus and then Spain. Those are the ones to watch next to see if the contagion is spreading, which will turn this from an Italian problem to an ECB problem.
  6. Check the country Fed is tightening so the obvious is happening as your charts show. BOE isn't so things are still relatively calm £ rate wise IMO.
  7. Simples, look at the 12m Libor rates: USD 2.76 % £ 0.93 % Yen 0.11 % Euro -0.22 % Swiss Franc -0.52 % QE only works when everyone is doing it, otherwise you end up with this where the rates are massively skewed. How is the Euro economy going to react when the ECB credit spigot gets stopped and the market tries to find the real price of money again? Italian Bonds would be 5-6% plus for a start, them currently yielding less than the US is a complete and utter joke. The imbalances are building up in the system, im just waiting on something to snap now.
  8. Sadly you may be on to something there, will the BOE throw what's left of the productive economy to the wolves to keep house prices up?
  9. As an example, the ECB is levitating the Euro corporate bond market by buying bonds to increase the price and decrease the yield. In theory it will be able to reduce its purchases as the companies invest the cheap money and growth picks up, in practice this has not happened so if the ECB withdraws then the prices will drop and yields soar. In essense, its back to the whole "printing yourself rich" idea that pops up from time to time. Wiemar Germany or Zimbabwe are where that path leads.
  10. https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2018/05/16/will-italy-get-a-250-billion-euro-debt-write-off-from-the-ecb/ Bwahahahahaha How did I go bankrupt? Slowly first, then quickly. They know that the ECB under Draghi will keep buying Italian bonds no matter what they do, why not throw a load of populist stuff in their coalition agreement with the free money? The German people are going to be very upset when the bill arrives.
  11. It will kill the bond market, one of the bigger problems the ECB has is due to its colossal buying of bonds it has crowded out the private market so no-one really knows what the going market rate of the bonds would be. Italy in a world of hurt has lower yield public bonds than the US which is completely nuts. The Fed is bravely trying to get back to normal which means no more mass printed money for the time being.
  12. If you want to win work supplying in the construction industry these days, you need only one thing: the cheapest price! Funnily enough quality does suffer massively as a result but sadly very few people care.
  13. Mail jumping on a bandwagon? Never.... Just been going through the March CPI data, couple of interesting things jumped out at me (all % YOY) Chinese input prices filtering into real economy? 05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 7.3% YOY 05.3.2.9 Other small electric household appliances 16.1% 09.2.1.3 Boats, outboard motors and fitting out of boats 15.3% 05.5.2.2 Miscellaneous small tool accessories 7.9% Oil increasing/Pound decreasing impacts 04.5.3 Liquid fuels 23.0% (this is volatile and then some) 04.5.1 electricity 10% 04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 6.2% The ONS doesn't tell you exactly what is in each category, liquid fuels is not exactly descriptive. However, its much more useful to me in tracking the impact of Pound depreciation than All Services 2.1% and All Goods 2.4%.
  14. Simples, everyone starves to death. No-one to farm crops, process them, transport to supermarket, stack on shelves etc.........
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