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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by durhamborn

  1. Tax credits caused Brexit as spy says.It wasnt the only reason people voted leave,but it was the bit that pushed it over the line.Iv just gone back to work for a while in the best paid factory in the area and the highest paid in the motor manufacturing industry.My mate takes home more and they dont work.Tax credits,carers allowance,ADHD made up kid and two other kids.They spend their days eating out etc while everyone i work with is knackered after a night shift.
  2. Thankyou thats good news,and yes im very happy with how things are working out,more to come yet.
  3. Very similar to me.Im mortgage free and my total monthly spending on all household bills,food and car is £480.I tend to spend £80 a month on top of that on anything i want, though that tends to mount up as i tend to get anything i want from Gumtree or Facebook marketplace for almost free.I went back to work in October (i had semi retired at 40) simply as i was offered a really good salary for the area £38k and i can save 100% of it apart from the NI,SIPP down to tax allowance level, (i have passive income higher than my monthly spend from ISA/investments). Iv spent £8k on cars/vans in 20 years,i have a car and van (buying,fixing,keeping on road).Though i might buy a one again soon.Mine is 13 years old now and i like to buy a diesel about 4 years old for £5k (i can repair most jobs myself on diesels).£0 on holidays.I hate them.My hobbies make me money or are free when you have the kit (metal detecting,fishing,nature,walking,astronomy etc). My food is almost always 75% off yellow sticker,foraged,from allotments etc.High quality and about £30 a week for two all in. I could pretty much buy anything i wanted,but have no desire to.Frugal makes me happy and i find it keeps me sharp in mind and body.
  4. Thats right.HTB isnt designed to help people have a home,its to help people have lots of debt so they work and do as they are told for multi decades.MEWing was also designed so people would work until 65ish.Its also why the pension age is pushed back.The government know very few understand finance and will not build up enough to retire early.The media spin out how you need enough to last until your 90 years old,when in fact you only need enough to get you from whatever date your at and 65 (or 68).The state pension and a small amount on top is enough for most people.My partners hours were put up from 28 to 36 a week,but she will get those and more back because she saves the extra into a SIPP and will retire at 55 and get those house back.
  5. The early 80s were worse than the Great Depression in the north.Unemployment went over 50% in a lot of towns as factory after factory closed.
  6. £630 increase in UC for everyone who works.
  7. I think thats very true and is my experience.Iv lived on that for a few years through choice.I see it as £800 minimum income for everything including enough some spending money.£1000,nice extras added on, and £1200 a month,very nice life indeed.
  8. Thats great you have used the time to get ready.My outgoings are £330 a month to run a 3 bed semi + £100 food and £80 car.Iv just taken a job and i get 6 months living expenses for each month i last there (£3k net a month).Iv got my small business on tick over mode (fixed costs £20 a week,profit about £100 a week at mo).Once i get laid off or leave il be seeing out the deflationary bust in my front room and garden mostly.I love recessions,and this bust will open the door to fantastic investments for the next cycle.
  9. I have just bought a cross trainer on Gumtree from a middle class lady.£350 really good model,,perfect condition,£50.I buy almost everything on there or Facebook marketplace.Its one of the reasons i have a cheap van,to pick stuff up.The knack is check on a morning and fire off a text to each seller offering just over half what they want and can collect today,someone always bites.
  10. Nope 100% right.The band is now pulled so tight it will revert back to mean and past.Cost of money drives house prices in an economy where population/demand is growing and the US long bond decides where everyones rates are over the longer term.Rates will be way over 5% by 2025,probably over 7% and maybe even 10%.I doubt house prices will be this high again inflation adjusted in my lifetime.Buying a southern house this year or over the last couple will prove a terrible investment.Life changing bad for people without the means to cut the debt quickly.
  11. Falling interest rates since 1982 as we had a dis-inflation.Thats just ended.House prices will now revert to mean and well past on the downside.In the west the US long bond controls most outcomes,the rest is noise.
  12. Thats right,and before Labour got in last time wages used to go up RPI+1% most years in most decent sized employers.Labour put tax credits up RPI+3% or more every year and wages went up CPI or less.Thats why instead of workers getting slowly better off than none workers it became quite silly to work.Saying that in many parts of the north east houses are lower inflation adjusted than in 1990.
  13. Nothing to do with Maggie,all to do with Paul Volcker.1982 was roughly the start of a long dis-inflation that saw rates on a multi decade downward march.That meant anyone buying an asset that goes up with falling rates could hardly fail.We are at the end of that cycle now,soon rates will be on an upward march and assets that gain from low rates will suffer the rubber band snapping back.The young buying now will be the biggest victims.
  14. Or put it in a SIPP until there is enough to take £12k a year tax free + 25% tax free cash from 55 until 68.Iv made sure my SIPP investments will stay at around £170k and with some income in dividends between ages 55 and 68 i should get the lot out tax free.After 68 i only want £60 a week on top of the state pension so no tax.I have that coming in a final salary pension so everything else is in an ISA.SIPPs are great for people who have no other taxable income from 55 as you can take just under £15k a year from them tax free.
  15. Move north Sam.Here around Durham you can buy some cracking places for £200k and some very nice 3 bed semis for around £120k.East coast mainline has you in London in 2 hrs 10 minutes from Darlington.Newcastle airport is very laid back and plenty of flights now,even the ferry to Europe from North Shields.The south will be terrible in the next cycle as its those very jobs that will see the most pain.
  16. Exactly.We buy a million in Chinese goods.The Chinese then park that million in a London house.We get the goods for free,they get to experience a house price crash and their capital up in smoke at some point.We need some way to pay for all the trampolines in half the countries back gardens paid for with tax credits.
  17. https://theenergyst.com/centrica-buys-israeli-smart-ev-charging-firm-eyes-vehicle-grid-services/ Thats the reason Centrica have invested in the above company.Charging points will be everywhere,i could put two on my drive.The key will be linking where the energy comes from and who used it with margin added on at the points.Centrica also invested into an energy block chain company than in affect can work out the energy coming from the roof of a factory,split into units,delivered to however many different end users etc.Put the two above together and you have what you need to roll it out.I would expect a simply app on your phone will be how it work and it will point you to the nearest charge point.
  18. Ah the Queens Head next door,shame it closed.Known by its other name mostly "The Zoo".Remember my poaching days getting a great breakfast from the Italian ladies who had the cafe a few doors down,Star Cafe i think it was called.
  19. Worked for me and my daughter,only costs were a survey,people in chains in a slow market like the north east know it could be 6 months before they sell again.Its always worth doing a bit of research on the seller.A divorce where the hubby earns a packet and has ran off will usually see them accept a much lower price,he just wants out asap.We were fair.They could of said no and sold to someone else.The fact they accepted shows they knew very well the lease is a problem and hoped to pass it onto someone else.They should of bought the freehold before they decided to sell.
  20. I bought a leasehold house many years ago and so did my daughter.The knack is to keep quiet until your about to complete.Work out how much it will cost in two years time to buy the freehold (you have to wait two years) and then drop it the day before you complete,oh im backing out its leasehold unless they drop the price by x amount.I doubled the cost of buying the freehold and got it knocked off then bought it two years later.£2k for freehold back then got £4k knocked off.My daughter did the same,£5k to buy freehold got £9k knocked off and then bought it.The sellers all know nobody wants leasehold,but some simply dont have the cash to buy it,or are dumb until the solicitor spells it out.In my daughters case the husband had moved in with a woman who was loaded and just wanted shot as his ex who was skint was in the house.Drop it on them a day or two before you complete though to naff up their chain.The beauty is the sellers know when you say oh its leasehold you mean it when you say im walking and the solicitor will explain to them it will likely keep happening.
  21. They do go onto UC in a lot of areas now yes and has closed that door,though UC is none means tested as well for 6 months for people who have stamp paid.Their father must of kicked in his pension already he should of left it deferred.
  22. Thats not true,it only counts as capital if you have moved it to drawdown,if its still untouched the capital doesnt count.They might change that going forward,but for now its fine.You can retire 18 months early without any means testing.First claim JSA for 6 months (or UC) and its not means tested,at month 6 come off JSA and claim ESA,again not means tested for a year. If they happen to give you zero points on ESA when you get called in ask for a mandatory appeal,they will refuse again,but then you can claim to go to tribunal .At that stage they have to give you the ESA back until the tribunal.That takes around 6 months to happen.The key is to rotate none means tested JSA/UC though that door will shut to 6 months once ESA is scrapped and replaced with UC.
  23. Depends on the level of care.My partner is a nurse in the community,she does all the home from hospital visits etc and very few old people need to go in a home,most though do need help on a different scale.Some simply need help getting up and putting to bed,others need shopping done,some meals making,some a bath,all different.A lot depends on how close the family is and if they care or not and can help out as well.From her experience the ones who end up in a home tend to be those who get it free and have families who dont really care,and ones whos kids have a career and are often at the other end of the country.The others are ones who end up in for a couple of months at the end of their life.There are times when there is no alternative of course,but there are many more options than simply handing over a lifetimes work to a care home while the person next to you gets it for free.Even if it means you can stretch into to 7 years where they cant chase assets and have everything in a trust by then.
  24. Thats exactly what we have done before and will do again.My partner and daughter are nurses.If my dad needs it he will move in with me and my partner will pack in her job if she hasnt already,she wouldnt need asking twice.Even if it was just me i could do it easy.Id get some of the local carers who go around the houses on cash in hand.The girls with the private firms going around all have fiddle jobs during their round.A friends mam gets a call in the morning to get her up and a lunch time call for food etc for £50 a week cash in hand.She puts her to bed each night.
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