Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Will!]

17 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

It may be the case that the Rep. Ireland will have to leave the single market if this occurs...

Why would that be?

[OnionTerror]

Just now, Will! said:

Why would that be?

It could provide a back door into the single market with unregulated goods..

[pig]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

Odious is a reasonable enough word for something unpleasant. It could be equally well applied to, say, someone who goes around comparing people they disagree with to paedophiles.

Well apologies, it is an ugly metaphor to the point of distracting you from its purpose - if I can think of an alternative I will.
Just to be clear It's not quite the specific issue of Brexit - (which I do often disagree with) that I'm getting at though but rather concern at what seems to be the general agenda of these politicians of which it is part and their parasitical (ok Macrons metaphor!) relationship on peoples actual problems.

[Riedquat]

10 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

It could provide a back door into the single market with unregulated goods..

The question is whether it would, not whether it could. Unless there's a sound reason to believe that would be a serious problem there's no justification for changing anything wrt Ireland. A small amount may get through that way, large amounts should be too obvious.

[cashinmattress]

12 hours ago, slawek said:

Strange times we live in.

Indeed. Having 'the' encumbant political party which spawned Brexit... based on a campaign of misinformation and outright falsehoods, devoid of any real debate... then call an unnecessary election during the exit negotiation phase...which is of a finite time... and seemingly derailing their own hustings... creating the very real scenario for one or several hung parliaments.. it's like nobody wants to own this stinking turd of a policy shift... what is the most significant national policy shift in perhaps generations... with an outcome potential to tank the UK!

We're already months removed from A50... and we may not see a solid government until autumn or beyond... with all this very significant Brexit 'stuff' to be crammed into a shrinking window of opportunity could quickly turn to something well beyond a Shakespearean tragedy.

And all of this mess IMO is Westminster's...plus Farage et al. Britain is setting the bar very low for what is supposed to be both the oldest democracy and the foremost knowledge economy, hosting some of the world's oldest and best universities.

Post empire ruination by our own hands. Strength in numbers boys...

Edited May 29, 2017 by cashinmattress

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

13 hours ago, slawek said:

Strange times we live in.

Not religious but even CoE has noticed this.

"Rowan Williams has warned of the dangers of “messianic leadership” arising from disillusion in the political process, saying lessons need to be learned from Germany in the 1930s." 

"The former archbishop of Canterbury also said many Britons were peering into the abyss following last year’s Brexit referendum."

“One of the things [the author] notes is the deep disillusion in politics, and the romantic, idealistic feeling that if we get the right leader, then things will change. As trust in conventional politics goes down, expectations of messianic leadership go up,”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/21/rowan-williams-britons-are-peering-into-the-abyss-after-brexit-vote

Literal messiah-follower warns against other messiahs.

[slawek]

30 minutes ago, the_duke_of_hazzard said:

Literal messiah-follower warns against other messiahs.

They are experts in this fields and don't like any competition.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Amber Rudd to Angela Merkel: We’ll still be friends after Brexit

“We can reassure German Chancellor Angela Merkel that we want to have a deep and special partnership so that we can continue to maintain European-wide security.”

Rudd’s comments came in response to Merkel’s statement at a rally in Munich on Sunday that European nations “have to take our fate into our own hands” as a result of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president. “The era in which we could fully rely on others is over to some extent,” Merkel said. Politico

 

How can EU side take her seriously. They still don't know who will be in charge, what the UK's Brexit position is and when will Britain begin to negotiate.

[OnionTerror]

8 hours ago, Riedquat said:

The question is whether it would, not whether it could. Unless there's a sound reason to believe that would be a serious problem there's no justification for changing anything wrt Ireland. A small amount may get through that way, large amounts should be too obvious.

That said, it is by no means certain that playing fast and loose with EU law is permissible. If the EU imposes one set of rules for its external border with the UK, while maintaining different, more rigorous rules for other "third countries", it could find itself in breach of WTO non-discrimination rules. 

Then there are the internal issues, which are just as problematical. If Irish border controls are relaxed and Northern Ireland is outside the EU while remaining part of the UK, there would be nothing to stop exporters from the UK using the border as a "back door" into the rest of the Single Market. Moreover, imports from the rest of the world into the UK could find their way into the EU by this route, threatening its integrity. 

To prevent this, goods exported from Northern Ireland would have to be documented and retain their identity, thus enabling the implementation of a ban on re-export. Unfortunately, the administrative complications of this would create a powerful disincentive for trade, with inevitable economic consequences. 

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86473

[ZeroSumGame]

19 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

It could provide a back door into the single market with unregulated goods..

Quote

EU leaders agree tough guidelines for Brexit negotiations, hard border in Ireland among red line issues  Independent.ie

 

Hard border just a non-starter. Why would the EU punish one of its members who had no hand in BREXIT? And may suffer from trade tariffs to boot.

Edited May 29, 2017 by ZeroSumGame

[OnionTerror]

7 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

EU leaders agree tough guidelines for Brexit negotiations, hard border in Ireland among red line issues  Independent.ie

Hard border just a non-starter. Why would the EU punish one of its members who had no hand in BREXIT? And may suffer from trade tariffs to boot.

Its not about punishing the UK or whoever...If we become a third country by default under WTO - We cannot be given favourable access to the SM as it would break WTO rules on descrimination...all third countries legally have to treated the same...  This is why Mrs May is a bit of a half-wit and backed herself into a corner very early on..

Edited May 29, 2017 by Dave Beans

[Confusion of VIs]

29 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

 

Hard border just a non-starter. Why would the EU punish one of its members who had no hand in BREXIT? And may suffer from trade tariffs to boot.

Every time I hear the word punishment, it's just another example of a failure to think through the consequences of leaving the EU.

My view is leaving was a dumb decision but that was the way the vote went, so we need to leave but please can we do it without whining about punishment every time we are confronted with another little bit of reality. It's getting embarrassing. 

[Confusion of VIs]

Speaking of dumb decisions, why did we decide to compound the challenge of leaving by leaving Euratom.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/29/brexit-has-forgotten-leaving-europes-nuclear-community-just/

Given the level of incompetence displayed to date by our leaders, I am starting to think we really could reach a situation where  and maybe even air travel is seriously disrupted.

Edited May 29, 2017 by Confusion of VIs

[ZeroSumGame]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Every time I hear the word punishment, it's just another example of a failure to think through the consequences of leaving the EU.

Ireland is not leaving the EU.

 

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

My view is leaving was a dumb decision but that was the way the vote went, so we need to leave but please can we do it without whining about punishment every time we are confronted with another little bit of reality. It's getting embarrassing. 

As Dave Beans alluded : Ireland could be forced to leave the 'single market'.  An innocent third party would certainly be punished by the damage to its economy. A tiny economy whose main export destination will now be outside the EU.

Maybe you'd like to explain your rationale?

And finally,, I voted remain  ; with the status quo I wouldn't really have had to think much about the theoretical consequences.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2017 by ZeroSumGame

[pig]

9 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Ireland is not leaving the EU.

 

As Dave Beans alluded : Ireland could be forced to leave the 'single market'.  An innocent third party would certainly be punished by the damage to its economy. A tiny economy whose main export destination will now be outside the EU.

Maybe you'd like to explain your rationale?

 

Maybe England should just go the whole hog and drop out of the UK but maintain a soft border with the metropolitan areas and Ireland join the new Federation of Britain. There, everybody happy.

[pig]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Every time I hear the word punishment, it's just another example of a failure to think through the consequences of leaving the EU.

My view is leaving was a dumb decision but that was the way the vote went, so we need to leave but please can we do it without whining about punishment every time we are confronted with another little bit of reality. It's getting embarrassing. 

Social media + MSM conditioning. Not many people would carry on like that in 'real life'. Perhaps it's because 'real life' consequences are only starting to get underway.

[Confusion of VIs]

4 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Ireland is not leaving the EU.

 

As Dave Beans alluded : Ireland could be forced to leave the 'single market'.  An innocent third party would certainly be punished by the damage to its economy. A tiny economy whose main export destination will now be outside the EU.

Maybe you'd like to explain your rationale?

How can Ireland be forced to leave the single market. It is possible that they may have to choose between having a hard border and being in the single market but that would be a consequence of the UK's actions not the EU's. However, as it was stated many times during the campaign that Brexit would not lead to a hard border, that couldn't happen could it?  

The UK (government and most of the media) still seems to think that leaving is a negotiation during which the EU will change its own rules to avoid us having to accept the consequences of leaving - that is the delusion Merkel was referring to. We will soon find out it is not a negotiation, it is a process that will move us from being a member of the EU to being a third country.

The EU has accepted that the UK is leaving and all they care about now getting the process over ASAP and not weakening the cohesion of the EU states by doing anything that undermines the benefits of membership, even if this means accepting a substantial hit to their own trade. 

 

 

  

[OnionTerror]

6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How can Ireland be forced to leave the single market. It is possible that they may have to choose between having a hard border and being in the single market but that would be a consequence of the UK's actions not the EU's. However, as it was stated many times during the campaign that Brexit would not lead to a hard border, that couldn't happen could it?  

The UK (government and most of the media) still seems to think that leaving is a negotiation during which the EU will change its own rules to avoid us having to accept the consequences of leaving - that is the delusion Merkel was referring to. We will soon find out it is not a negotiation, it is a process that will move us from being a member of the EU to being a third country.

The EU has accepted that the UK is leaving and all they care about now getting the process over ASAP and not weakening the cohesion of the EU states by doing anything that undermines the benefits of membership, even if this means accepting a substantial hit to their own trade. 

 

 

  

It depends if the EU slaps the EEA treaty on the table, and say "there you go...this is a temporary fix for now"..

I have a feeling that they wont...I think the UK will have to ask for it.... 

Edited May 29, 2017 by Dave Beans

[ZeroSumGame]

11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How can Ireland be forced to leave the single market. It is possible that they may have to choose between having a hard border and being in the single market but that would be a consequence of the UK's actions not the EU's. However, as it was stated many times during the campaign that Brexit would not lead to a hard border, that couldn't happen could it?  

 

See Dave for your first sentence.

My initial premise was that the EU had a RED-LINE no-no on the hard Irish border.   Should you care to read the Irish press (quoted), you'd find that neither the EU nor the Irish government want the return of the hard border, and also, the  full continuation of the GFA. 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

Just now, ZeroSumGame said:

See Dave for your first sentence.

My initial premise was that the EU had a RED-LINE no-no on the hard Irish border.   Should you care to read the Irish press (quoted), you'd find that neither the EU nor the Irish government want the return of the hard border, and also, the  full continuation of the GFA. 

No one wants it but how do you prevent it, I understand the EU have floated the option of the NI staying in the single market and customs union - is that an acceptable way forward.

What is the UK government suggesting.   

[ZeroSumGame]

22 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The UK (government and most of the media) still seems to think that leaving is a negotiation during which the EU will change its own rules to avoid us having to accept the consequences of leaving - that is the delusion Merkel was referring to. We will soon find out it is not a negotiation, it is a process that will move us from being a member of the EU to being a third country. 

I agree with the thrust of that point.

The use of this term 'we' is meaningless. Britain is clearly split on this issue : it's unlikely to to be papered over. Use 'Britain' or 'Leave' or 'Remain'.

[OnionTerror]

Just now, Confusion of VIs said:

No one wants it but how do you prevent it, I understand the EU have floated the option of the NI staying in the single market and customs union - is that an acceptable way forward.

What is the UK government suggesting.   

Scotland would demand the same treatment, as would Gibraltar... From what I see, there is no government plan...

[Riedquat]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Every time I hear the word punishment, it's just another example of a failure to think through the consequences of leaving the EU.

My view is leaving was a dumb decision but that was the way the vote went, so we need to leave but please can we do it without whining about punishment every time we are confronted with another little bit of reality. It's getting embarrassing. 

Are you saying that it isn't punishment or trying to justify something that is deliberately aiming to be punishment?

[Riedquat]

4 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Its not about punishing the UK or whoever...If we become a third country by default under WTO - We cannot be given favourable access to the SM as it would break WTO rules on descrimination...all third countries legally have to treated the same...  This is why Mrs May is a bit of a half-wit and backed herself into a corner very early on..

Despite countries all around the world having different border and trade conditions with each other? This sounds more like Europhiles trying to create problems in order to justify their stance than something that should be of serious concern. It'll only be of serious concern if once again the EU proves its obnoxiousness by making it such.

Edited May 30, 2017 by Riedquat

[Riedquat]

24 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No one wants it but how do you prevent it, I understand the EU have floated the option of the NI staying in the single market and customs union - is that an acceptable way forward.

What is the UK government suggesting.   

It sounds like one possibility. I can't say wether or not it would work or whether it would raise problems in NI. Still don't find any arguments for changing the status quo there at all convincing though.