Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[dugsbody]

18 hours ago, dryrot said:

I believe there has been the occasional poll on the EU?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union

(Note that any "No" votes were quickly overruled)

Sorry those are national referendums. Could you please explain what you meant by your original comment and how you understand the EU should "ask the people"?

[dugsbody]

15 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

edit to add: my italian colleagues the same, but how can the EU sort that out if it can? If it does not then italy is doomed to economic collapse whilst in the Euro.

Do you think it is the job of the EU to "sort out" corruption in member states. How would the EU do that?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

UK seeking to get closer to EU Pandemic Warning System:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/02/uk-seeks-access-to-eu-health-cooperation-in-light-of-coronavirus

That’ll annoy Brexiters demanding the right to not be alerted to new pandemics by the EU. 
Let them enjoy their imported bat from China!

 

[solentmuppet]

11 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

So the state would become the mafia and supplant them? Seems to be what you are suggesting,  like Mussolini ? That is what you want?

Hardly. My original observation from your (? I think) post was that in a situation of the military v the mafia, mafia would lose. By their nature, the mafia think tactically, with a very loose and fractional leadership as such, no overall command structure and apart from their drug distribution network and other activities, no logistical paradigm. Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics and professionals usually win*. Certainly, with a seemingly sizeable proportion of the population broadly approving of the mafia as an alternative to, at least, local government, military action of the type I referred to isn't an option, hearts and minds and all that. 

*for a given definition of win. Vietnam is a case in point, but that was a failure of political will, driven by a popular growing sentiment at home that scuppered the military effort. I was there (the US) in the early 70s and had it pointed out to me by my dad at every opportunity. 

[debtlessmanc]

41 minutes ago, solentmuppet said:

Hardly. My original observation from your (? I think) post was that in a situation of the military v the mafia, mafia would lose. By their nature, the mafia think tactically, with a very loose and fractional leadership as such, no overall command structure and apart from their drug distribution network and other activities, no logistical paradigm. Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics and professionals usually win*. Certainly, with a seemingly sizeable proportion of the population broadly approving of the mafia as an alternative to, at least, local government, military action of the type I referred to isn't an option, hearts and minds and all that. 

*for a given definition of win. Vietnam is a case in point, but that was a failure of political will, driven by a popular growing sentiment at home that scuppered the military effort. I was there (the US) in the early 70s and had it pointed out to me by my dad at every opportunity. 

The problem is who is going to do this? as i said ages back, the average italian or albanian, or even french person is not going to be happy about a german, dutch or swede tax inspector rocking up and telling them that their ways of paying tax or nepotism etc are wrong. As i explained at great length years back in this thread, the freedom of movement means nothing unless an italian business is a likely to appoint a good UK candidate as vive versa, the awkward fact is that even if you look at what you might think are liberal minded places of work such as universities only 1% of italian professors (or 3% of french, 7% of German, although the latter has more to do with their crazy habilitiation system) were born in an EU state other than there own. In the UK that figure is 23%!! I also talk to Italians in the UK, i was talking to a female Italian professor only recently over lunch and she told me that she was annoyed about Brexit but returning to italy was inconceivable, she could not bear the blatent cronyism (and sexism she mentioned too), she told me it was not unusual to find whole university dept full of the members of one family (rolling her eyes at the fact). In the end she opined she would rather move to the US or canada.

So what does freedom of movement mean to a british aspiring academic? Apply for a job in the UK and compete with the whole of the EU, or apply to other states and not stand a chance due to cronyism. To be a true single state the EU will have to address simple issues like this before it can hope to try to tackle organised corruption/crime such a the mafia represents. It is not difficult to see why eg the Dutch prime minister is unwilling to pour dutch taxpayers money into places with these kind of problems.

Edited May 9, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[debtlessmanc]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

Do you think it is the job of the EU to "sort out" corruption in member states. How would the EU do that?

That is the problem, its not all obvious how it would do it in a way that is consistent with its "good cop" image. However, certain countries are paying the piper and they want their tune played. Perhaps link bail outs to having tax affairs inspected independently, it would be interesting to see how that goes down. After all the brutal austerity inflicted on Greece they promised to reform tax collection, part of this was making it law that card payment always be acceptable in shops/restaurants. We were there last summer, every single restaurant we ate in claimed the card machine was broken and we had to pay cash....

[dugsbody]

57 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

That is the problem, its not all obvious how it would do it in a way that is consistent with its "good cop" image. However, certain countries are paying the piper and they want their tune played. Perhaps link bail outs to having tax affairs inspected independently, it would be interesting to see how that goes down. After all the brutal austerity inflicted on Greece they promised to reform tax collection, part of this was making it law that card payment always be acceptable in shops/restaurants. We were there last summer, every single restaurant we ate in claimed the card machine was broken and we had to pay cash....

So you're saying that the fault lies with the EU, the union the member states formed and joined, for not being able to eliminate corruption in the states that make up the union? 

I'm puzzled.

[solentmuppet]

@debtlessmanc oh I broadly agree, it's not going to happen, which is a kind of shame in some respects. Nationalism, badly disguised as patriotism will ensure that no such level of cooperation is possible at this time. Personally, I dread to think how bad the situation would have to get before all of the EU pulled in a single direction, which incidentally, imho, will leave us in a bad way when it comes to international trade negotiations. My view is that we should have stayed in and tried to direct change from there. The UK has been fairly successful in the past at doing this, look at the way the EU has changed from a socialist (broadly) paradigm to a market forces ,economically driven direction. Hasn't been, totally successful but for me, negotiations from a position of strength as a part of a greater whole (think how China has had to - in part, at least - reform its manufacturing standards to comply with a market that says " our standards or no approval or sale"). We will  be in no position to tell anyone that sort of thing post Brexit and we will be poorer and sorrier (again imho) for it. Yes, it may be a somewhat *imperial * point of view to tell others how they have to do things to fit in with our way, but I'd sooner that than the likely alternative. 

Probably not expressed coherently but hopefully gets the gist across. 

[debtlessmanc]

10 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

So you're saying that the fault lies with the EU, the union the member states formed and joined, for not being able to eliminate corruption in the states that make up the union? 

I'm puzzled.

It is dysfunctional as a freedom of movement for jobs market and i dont see that changing anytime soon. As you say it is difficult to lay this at the doot of the eu - however i keep being reminded of this when people in the uk drone on and on endlessly how “a minority have ruined our childrens chances and opportunities” etc. The previous considerations  and the fact that 80% of uk citizens working abroad are not on the continent anyway tend to refute this.

Edited May 9, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

It is dysfunctional as a freedom of movement for jobs market and i dont see that changing anytime soon. As you say it is difficult to lay this at the doot of the eu - however i keep being reminded of this when people in the uk drone on and on endlessly how “a minority have ruined our childrens chances and opportunities” etc. The previous considerations  and the fact that 80% of uk citizens working abroad are not on the continent anyway tend to refute this.

I'm struggling to follow you. I think the above is confirmation that you blame the EU (by this I guess you mean the elected and appointed EU officials, or do you mean the elected heads of each nation state that sit in the council?) for not being able to fix corruption in Italy and Greece (and others).

I don't really follow the logic if I'm honest.

Then you seem to get back on the favourite topic, freedom for Europeans to work around Europe, which you really dislike. I'm not sure how that tied in to the original point, but good that you reminded us how awful it is.

[dryrot]

3 hours ago, solentmuppet said:

[deleted]

 (think how China has had to - in part, at least - reform its manufacturing standards to comply with an [EU]  market that says " our standards or no approval or sale"). We will  be in no position to tell anyone that sort of thing post Brexit 

Why won't we be able to set standard for imports post-Brexit? We did it before joining the EU and can do it again afterwards. We can either use the existing EU regs or change them if we wish.

[MARTINX9]

On 08/05/2020 at 09:21, Dorkins said:

You guys are just rewriting history now. 'Britain is a Leave country, it has always been a Leave country'. The 1975 referendum result was 17.4m to 8.5m, not exactly a close result that had to be forced.

It if was still a common market (as the 1975 referendum was sold) involving eight other western European nations with similarly strong economies and consistent welfare systems and wage levels - we would probably never have voted to leave! 

Of course anyone voting in 1975 would have to be at least 63 now - an age group most likely to have voted leave in 2016. They had a before and after to compare against!

But I am reminded this is a thread about coronavirus - black swan - there is a separate Brexit thread for those who wish to carry on debating why they lost in 2016 and 2019 and still not accepting why they did. And seemingly blaming Brexit for all the world's ills - even an apparent bat derived global virus which started in mainland China and its impact on global health and the world economy!

And their weird belief that only non EU members with Conservative governments who have seen high per capita death rates - like for example socialist run Spain and Italy!

Edited May 9, 2020 by MARTINX9

[debtlessmanc]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

I'm struggling to follow you. I think the above is confirmation that you blame the EU (by this I guess you mean the elected and appointed EU officials, or do you mean the elected heads of each nation state that sit in the council?) for not being able to fix corruption in Italy and Greece (and others).

I don't really follow the logic if I'm honest.

Then you seem to get back on the favourite topic, freedom for Europeans to work around Europe, which you really dislike. I'm not sure how that tied in to the original point, but good that you reminded us how awful it is.

Freedon to work exists between eg australia and the uk, there are in fac more british people working than in Australia than whole EU. Of course you need to get a job offer, but that is all. So what id freedom to work in the EU that is better than our relationship with eg Australia? Is it solely the right to be exploited doing jobs for very low pay or is it the freedom ti sleep rough? If it is only the last two where is the advantage to anyone really?

i like the way you lot keep falling back on cynics like me “must hate the commission” it betrays a mindset similar to the religious i would argue with once upon time who rationalised my cynicism as “a hatred if god” the idea the whole institution might be an anathema to me did not compute.

[pig]

22 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

It if was still a common market (as the 1975 referendum was sold) involving eight other western European nations with similarly strong economies and consistent welfare systems and wage levels - we would probably never have voted to leave! 

Of course anyone voting in 1975 would have to be at least 63 now - an age group most likely to have voted leave in 2016. They had a before and after to compare against!

But I am reminded this is a thread about coronavirus - black swan - there is a separate Brexit thread for those who wish to carry on debating why they lost in 2016 and 2019 and still not accepting why they did. And seemingly blaming Brexit for all the world's ills - even an apparent bat derived global virus which started in mainland China and its impact on global health and the world economy!

And their weird belief that only non EU members with Conservative governments who have seen high per capita death rates - like for example socialist run Spain and Italy!

The stuff you're coming out with now is getting beyond bizarre.

[Dorkins]

38 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

It if was still a common market (as the 1975 referendum was sold) involving eight other western European nations with similarly strong economies and consistent welfare systems and wage levels - we would probably never have voted to leave! 

Of course anyone voting in 1975 would have to be at least 63 now - an age group most likely to have voted leave in 2016. They had a before and after to compare against!

But I am reminded this is a thread about coronavirus - black swan - there is a separate Brexit thread for those who wish to carry on debating why they lost in 2016 and 2019 and still not accepting why they did. And seemingly blaming Brexit for all the world's ills - even an apparent bat derived global virus which started in mainland China and its impact on global health and the world economy!

And their weird belief that only non EU members with Conservative governments who have seen high per capita death rates - like for example socialist run Spain and Italy!

u wot m8, this is the Brexit thread

[dugsbody]

31 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Freedon to work exists between eg australia and the uk, there are in fac more british people working than in Australia than whole EU. Of course you need to get a job offer, but that is all. So what id freedom to work in the EU that is better than our relationship with eg Australia? Is it solely the right to be exploited doing jobs for very low pay or is it the freedom ti sleep rough? If it is only the last two where is the advantage to anyone really?

i like the way you lot keep falling back on cynics like me “must hate the commission” it betrays a mindset similar to the religious i would argue with once upon time who rationalised my cynicism as “a hatred if god” the idea the whole institution might be an anathema to me did not compute.

You really are hard to follow.

Freedom of movement treats all citizens equal no matter if they're elite educated or less educated. It allows the same opportunities for all. Within the Uk we normally celebrate this sort of thing. It is brexiters who have decided to frame it as exploitation when we choose to expand the concept wider.

And the reason you do that is so you can enhance the argument which simply boils down to not wanting Europeans to come and live near you.

Anyway, we all know this was the primary driver of brexit which is why you've dragged the conversation back to immigration when we were simply discussing your belief that the EU (you've still yet to define what you mean by that) is at fault for not eliminating the corruption in Italy and Greece. How you expect the EU to do that remains a mystery, but it won't prevent you from blaming it anyway.

Just like @dryrot who blames the EU for "not asking the people" whatever he means by that, he still hasn't explained.

[dryrot]

3 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

 

Just like @dryrot who blames the EU for "not asking the people" whatever he means by that, he still hasn't explained.

<sigh> I replied directly to your question yesterday...

  On 08/05/2020 at 12:59, dugsbody said:

How would the EU do that, please?

I believe there has been the occasional poll on the EU?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union

(Note that any "No" votes were quickly overruled)

[Dorkins]

9 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Anyway, we all know this was the primary driver of brexit which is why you've dragged the conversation back to immigration when we were simply discussing your belief that the EU (you've still yet to define what you mean by that) is at fault for not eliminating the corruption in Italy and Greece. How you expect the EU to do that remains a mystery, but it won't prevent you from blaming it anyway.

Just like @dryrot who blames the EU for "not asking the people" whatever he means by that, he still hasn't explained.

The EU can never win with these people, when it doesn't fix things that aren't in its areas of competence they complain that it's ineffective, when it does act in an area where it does have competence it's trampling on national sovereignty. These are generally also the same people who moan about creeping expansion of EU powers being inevitable. I think they just can't really wrap their heads around the concept of a rules-based organisation with firm legally binding definitions of what it can and can't do. Perhaps this mental bias goes with having an authoritarian streak, they assume that people in positions of power can do whatever they feel like and nobody can stop them.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Dorkins

[debtlessmanc]

16 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

You really are hard to follow.

Freedom of movement treats all citizens equal no matter if they're elite educated or less educated. It allows the same opportunities for all. Within the Uk we normally celebrate this sort of thing. It is brexiters who have decided to frame it as exploitation when we choose to expand the concept wider.

And the reason you do that is so you can enhance the argument which simply boils down to not wanting Europeans to come and live near you.

Anyway, we all know this was the primary driver of brexit which is why you've dragged the conversation back to immigration when we were simply discussing your belief that the EU (you've still yet to define what you mean by that) is at fault for not eliminating the corruption in Italy and Greece. How you expect the EU to do that remains a mystery, but it won't prevent you from blaming it anyway.

Just like @dryrot who blames the EU for "not asking the people" whatever he means by that, he still hasn't explained.

I am surrounded at work by lovely europeans and if we have point based migration system i will continue to be and long may it comtinue - i wish you lot would nudge the record so that “xenophobia” groove the needle is stuck in would move on. I personally will welcome the day with open arms when there are no borders at all. Reaching that point needs to be managed. The EU’s approach is far too overdrive for me and exaggerating divisions rather than closing them - imho obv. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[Dorkins]

6 minutes ago, dryrot said:

<sigh> I replied directly to your question yesterday...

  On 08/05/2020 at 12:59, dugsbody said:

How would the EU do that, please?

I believe there has been the occasional poll on the EU?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union

(Note that any "No" votes were quickly overruled)

Which treaty article enables the EU to hold referendums?

[solentmuppet]

2 hours ago, dryrot said:

Why won't we be able to set standard for imports post-Brexit? We did it before joining the EU and can do it again afterwards. We can either use the existing EU regs or change them if we wish.

Oh, we will......whether much larger economies than ours will decide it's worthwhile trading with us under those terms st a price we feel is affordable and fair is another matter entirely. Hence my opinion  is that attached and firmly in lockstep with 20+ other nations who have the buying power of 500+ million people is a better place to be. I mean,  come on, look at how Twatfeatures, sorry trump dicks his trading partners around. Just what kind of deal do you think we'll get there? Boris or his representative will be marched into the Oval office, told to drop his trousers, bend over and sign this. Call that fair and equitable negotiations.... I 'kin don't and if you gave it some thought, neither would you.....I hope. 

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, dryrot said:

<sigh> I replied directly to your question yesterday...

  On 08/05/2020 at 12:59, dugsbody said:

How would the EU do that, please?

I believe there has been the occasional poll on the EU?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union

(Note that any "No" votes were quickly overruled)

And I responded by pointing out  that those are national referendums, which of course you already know but ignored. Could you please explain how the EU should "ask the people"?

[dugsbody]

9 minutes ago, solentmuppet said:

Oh, we will......whether much larger economies than ours will decide it's worthwhile trading with us under those terms st a price we feel is affordable and fair is another matter entirely. Hence my opinion  is that attached and firmly in lockstep with 20+ other nations who have the buying power of 500+ million people is a better place to be. I mean,  come on, look at how Twatfeatures, sorry trump dicks his trading partners around. Just what kind of deal do you think we'll get there? Boris or his representative will be marched into the Oval office, told to drop his trousers, bend over and sign this. Call that fair and equitable negotiations.... I 'kin don't and if you gave it some thought, neither would you.....I hope. 

Boris will do it, because it will be fantastic optics to get a trade "deal" with the US so soon after brexit. His supporters will lap it up. 

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, debtlessmanc said:

I am surrounded at work by lovely europeans and if we have point based migration system i will continue to be and long may it comtinue - i wish you lot would nudge the record so that “xenophobia” groove the needle is stuck in would move on. I personally will welcome the day with open arms when there are no borders at all. Reaching that point needs to be managed. The EU’s approach is far too overdrive for me and exaggerating divisions rather than closing them - imho obv. 

Ok,  but once again, back to the topic, could you explain a bit more about how the EU is at fault for not eliminating corruption in Greece and Italy? Would you like the EU to have more authority over nation states?

Edited May 9, 2020 by dugsbody

[solentmuppet]

15 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Boris will do it, because it will be fantastic optics to get a trade "deal" with the US so soon after brexit. His supporters will lap it up. 

Yes, that's what I'm really worried about, I actually think he will......gawd 'elp us. I confess that my opinion regarding his supporters isn't printable.......and if by some strange quirk of natural justice they end up with the sh***y end of the stick, I will loudly, publicly and joyfully laugh myself sick. That includes the br*******s, after all, they voted for him and his wretched sidekicks.....and policies.