Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

This article in the Guardian sums up the UK perfectly: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/21/britains-pride-past-not-matched-vision-future

I think it adequately explains the idiocy of Brexit.
 

In my view we now know the future isn’t with COVID-China or Jesus-AntiVax-Hydrochloriquine-washed-chicken-USA.

We just need to turn off the Dad’s Army skit. It was meant to be a parody anyway, not a plan for the national psyche.

Edited May 22, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[dugsbody]

13 hours ago, Huggy said:

And like the reply I gave just above this, if democracy for you means just putting an X on some paper then I don't think there is any salvation. Should I now seriously consider which type of dictator will be taking the reigns in 10-20 years time and position myself to take advantage? Seems like the only logical conclusion.

That was my entire point. If that was what you called democracy, it is a farce. 

Are you actually agreeing with me that the brexit referendum was a farce?

[dugsbody]

13 hours ago, solentmuppet said:

Nobody on here who thinks Brexit is good for the country,  repeat NOBODY  has yet shown me one, just ONE reason why it's a good idea.....and sadly, you are no exception. 

Actually they have shown a few reasons. The primary reason it is a good idea for 99% of brexiters is that it stops poorer Eastern Europeans moving to the UK. They will attempt to bury this primary reason with a bunch of convoluted nonsensical arguments that shift under your feet as you try to make sense of them, but the primary reason is ending FOM. And if you look at Priti Patel's twitter posts and the glorious flag waving celebration that brexit has ended the right we enjoyed for many many decades, you'll realise this is what drove 99% of brexiters. Forget all the other nonsense.

The second reason is that because we voted for brexit, we must deliver brexit because otherwise we will show that democracy doesn't work and apparently that will lead to people doing really stupid crazy things like voting for brexit.

Edited May 22, 2020 by dugsbody

[Huggy]

4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

That was my entire point. If that was what you called democracy, it is a farce. 

Are you actually agreeing with me that the brexit referendum was a farce?

Not sure I follow. You said:

22 hours ago, dugsbody said:

The vote was a democratic vote only the the single minded sense that people could turn up and put an X in a box on some paper. The rest was a farce. 

I then questioned your blasé attitude to democracy as being described as "put an X in a box on some paper". Why was it only a little bit democratic too. Was it because of.....reasons?

I'd say these reasons all lead to the vote not producing the result you and many wanted. Seriously, 2nd Referendum calls came about 2 weeks after the vote in 2016 FFS.

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Actually they have shown a few reasons. The primary reason it is a good idea for 99% of brexiters is that it stops poorer Eastern Europeans moving to the UK. They will attempt to bury this primary reason with a bunch of convoluted nonsensical arguments that shift under your feet as you try to make sense of them, but the primary reason is ending FOM. And if you look at Priti Patel's twitter posts and the glorious flag waving celebration that brexit has ended the right we enjoyed for many many decades, you'll realise this is what drove 99% of brexiters. Forget all the other nonsense.

The second reason is that because we voted for brexit, we must deliver brexit because otherwise we will show that democracy doesn't work and apparently that will lead to people doing really stupid crazy things like voting for brexit.

Sadly for Brexiters by the end of the year, when Brexit actually happens, just about every poor East European who wants to come here will be here and have their entitlement to stay and benefits confirmed.

In the early days of this thread one of the predictions I made, and was ridiculed for by Brexiters for, was that by the time we actually Leave migrations between the UK and the EU will be pretty much back in balance.  If the government had actually implemented a qualifying period for benefits we would already be in balance. 

 

[Huggy]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Sadly for Brexiters by the end of the year, when Brexit actually happens, just about every poor East European who wants to come here will be here and have their entitlement to stay and benefits confirmed.

In the early days of this thread one of the predictions I made, and was ridiculed for by Brexiters for, was that by the time we actually Leave migrations between the UK and the EU will be pretty much back in balance.  If the government had actually implemented a qualifying period for benefits we would already be in balance. 

 

Ah, some punishment immigration, nice. Like Brucie's punishment Rejoin (with Euro and Schengen), because Brexiters need to be punished for their undemocratic opinions.

I think Remainers (Remoaners specifically) are more in need of some punishment considering their actions over the past 4 years. How about a Boris landslide caused by......Remoaners.....?

Bad Huggy Bear, mentioning the election like that. The punishment immigration has now been upgraded from "poor Eastern Europeans" to Islamist militia for being such a bad Brexiteer. And then Euro and Schengen straight after. That'll teach me right nice.

[Confusion of VIs]

On 19/05/2020 at 20:49, Huggy said:

I disagree that simply not being subject to certain rules is something you cannot have. There are massive examples in history where that is plainly not the case, and ironically the ones I thought of first have Britain as the entity that others are walking away from. No wars needed with this little one I am happy to say!

I have a pretty simple view on 'democracy' itself. If the leaders ask a question of the people, and the people give an answer, I feel it's best  if the leaders enact the result. I don't think it's good if they don't.

I don't doubt yours is a strongly held view (I have a reasonably intelligent friend who has said almost the exact same thing), but I find it difficult to see that side of the 'one democratic decision is better than another' view. I do feel we're like fundamentalist Christians and fundamentalist Muslims arguing on who's book is best though. Looking forward to the next 1,000 years!

Allowing democracy to be gamed by promising something that cannot be delivered and then having no mechanism for taking account of the change in public opinion once they realise they cannot have what they voted for does not seem to be much of an advert for our democracy.

In Switzerland, a country that takes democracy very seriously,  referendums can be, and have been, overturned if it later emerges that the electorate has been mislead.

I have no love for the EU, I have worked in the Commission and seen its many flaws first hand, and for a time did consider voting Leave but concluded that the Leave campaign would be unable to deliver on any of their promises.

In the end international relations are all about power and by invoking Article 50 we went into negotiations having just thrown away almost all of our bargaining power (Worth noting that Article 50 was written, at the behest of the UK government, with the aim of making the leaving party a supplicant).

Although obviously one sided this Blog summarises where we are pretty well, unlike the fantasy descriptions being reported in the like of the Telegraph.    

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

1 minute ago, Huggy said:

Ah, some punishment immigration, nice. Like Brucie's punishment Rejoin (with Euro and Schengen), because Brexiters need to be punished for their undemocratic opinions.

I think Remainers (Remoaners specifically) are more in need of some punishment considering their actions over the past 4 years. How about a Boris landslide caused by......Remoaners.....?

Bad Huggy Bear, mentioning the election like that. The punishment immigration has now been upgraded from "poor Eastern Europeans" to Islamist militia for being such a bad Brexiteer. And then Euro and Schengen straight after. That'll teach me right nice.

There will be no re-join, too humiliating for the public to accept and the France wouldn't have us back in anyway.

Probably the best description I have heard of Brexit was given by Pascal Lamy giving evidence to a select committee "it is as if Manchester United decided they wanted to leave the Premier League to play in the Second Division" 

Brexit is just another part of a decline for this country. We should have been the leading player in the EU, the swing voter between France and Germany that almost always got its way but for whatever reason we couldn't manage it. So now we have taken our ball back and gone off to play with our new best friends, whoever they may be.

 

 

[dryrot]

33 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Probably the best description I have heard of Brexit was given by Pascal Lamy giving evidence to a select committee "it is as if Manchester United decided they wanted to leave the Premier League to play in the Second Division" 

er...  in the real world, the UK pays £1billion per month to be in the EU.  And, also in the real world, football teams are paid to be in the Premier League.

(I have no idea who Pascal Lamy is, but he needs a better comparison. )

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, Huggy said:

Was it because of.....reasons?

You have been part of a discussion where I've been replying to you. The way this works is that there is context and you remember the context of that discussion, when replying. Otherwise it becomes a bit pointless where you're just throwing mindless statements around with no relevance.

To help remind you, I suggest scanning back through the last few our our interactions that led up to this comment and you can find where I already laid out my reasons for stating it was a travesty of democracy. 

[dugsbody]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Sadly for Brexiters by the end of the year, when Brexit actually happens, just about every poor East European who wants to come here will be here and have their entitlement to stay and benefits confirmed.

In the early days of this thread one of the predictions I made, and was ridiculed for by Brexiters for, was that by the time we actually Leave migrations between the UK and the EU will be pretty much back in balance.  If the government had actually implemented a qualifying period for benefits we would already be in balance. 

 

Agree. 

[crouch]

42 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I have no love for the EU, I have worked in the Commission and seen its many flaws first hand, and for a time did consider voting Leave but concluded that the Leave campaign would be unable to deliver on any of their promises.

Anyone with the slightest knowledge of politics discounts what politicians say so I find your naivety somewhat surprising. If you were inclined to vote Leave it must have been on questions of fundamental principles and not based on the unreliable word of politicians.

As regards the blog and the issue of extension he doesn't mention another factor which could have an impact on this. Germany and France have proposed a Euros500bn fund to cover the costs of Cvid 19. This is based on grants but those grants will be clawed back, in whole or in part, by the EU through the budgetary mechanism which will have to be restructured. It will likely be a mixure of higher annual contributions by all membersand less disbursements to those members that receive funds.

If this fund is implemented, and I say "if" because there may be legal challenges, the extra costs could be considerable. Although the UK may be in for some extra cost if we leave by 31 December 2020, it wil be much muh more if we extend beyond then.There are suggestions that contributions could double from current levels.

[Confusion of VIs]

19 minutes ago, dryrot said:

er...  in the real world, the UK pays £1billion per month to be in the EU.  And, also in the real world, football teams are paid to be in the Premier League.

(I have no idea who Pascal Lamy is, but he needs a better comparison. )

Turns out being in the EU paid pretty well. The last estimates made by the Treasury/OBR before they were banned from making their estimates public was that just voting to leaving the EU was costing us £60bn a year. The leave to save money argument always about as much sense as resigning from your job to save money on your commute.      

Ex head of the WTO, so you would think he would know what he was talking about.

  

[Confusion of VIs]

18 minutes ago, crouch said:

Anyone with the slightest knowledge of politics discounts what politicians say so I find your naivety somewhat surprising. If you were inclined to vote Leave it must have been on questions of fundamental principles and not based on the unreliable word of politicians.

As regards the blog and the issue of extension he doesn't mention another factor which could have an impact on this. Germany and France have proposed a Euros500bn fund to cover the costs of Cvid 19. This is based on grants but those grants will be clawed back, in whole or in part, by the EU through the budgetary mechanism which will have to be restructured. It will likely be a mixure of higher annual contributions by all membersand less disbursements to those members that receive funds.

If this fund is implemented, and I say "if" because there may be legal challenges, the extra costs could be considerable. Although the UK may be in for some extra cost if we leave by 31 December 2020, it wil be much muh more if we extend beyond then.There are suggestions that contributions could double from current levels.

I liked the idea of the UK recapturing its glory days as the freewheeling independent global power as much as the next man, but on reflection knew that it was never going to happen. 

The cost to date of leaving to date is many times more than any conceivable EU payments, the coming cost of a no deal exit will again be many times more than any conceivable EU payment.  Money saved was never a credible argument.  

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Confusion of VIs

[crouch]

12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The cost to date of leaving to date is many times more than any conceivable EU payments, the coming cost of a no deal exit will again be many times more than any conceivable EU payment.  Money saved was never a credible argument

I'm sure you realize that most of this is presumption.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

I'm sure you realize that most of this is presumption.

Only in the same way as thinking we are going run up a huge deficit this year is presumption. 

[IMHAL]

4 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Allowing democracy to be gamed by promising something that cannot be delivered and then having no mechanism for taking account of the change in public opinion once they realise they cannot have what they voted for does not seem to be much of an advert for our democracy.

In Switzerland, a country that takes democracy very seriously,  referendums can be, and have been, overturned if it later emerges that the electorate has been mislead.

I have no love for the EU, I have worked in the Commission and seen its many flaws first hand, and for a time did consider voting Leave but concluded that the Leave campaign would be unable to deliver on any of their promises.

In the end international relations are all about power and by invoking Article 50 we went into negotiations having just thrown away almost all of our bargaining power (Worth noting that Article 50 was written, at the behest of the UK government, with the aim of making the leaving party a supplicant).

Although obviously one sided this Blog summarises where we are pretty well, unlike the fantasy descriptions being reported in the like of the Telegraph.    

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

I like the following quote. Summarises what Brexiters failed to understand from day dot. We have not only lost the argument, the EU no longer care. Nowt like a good bit of tough love.  

"For such negotiations are not about winning arguments or making complaints. They are about cold, hard power, interests, and trade-offs. Not only do argument and complaint cut no ice, but they show that you have already lost"

[debtlessmanc]

15 hours ago, IMHAL said:

I like the following quote. Summarises what Brexiters failed to understand from day dot. We have not only lost the argument, the EU no longer care. Nowt like a good bit of tough love.  

"For such negotiations are not about winning arguments or making complaints. They are about cold, hard power, interests, and trade-offs. Not only do argument and complaint cut no ice, but they show that you have already lost"

This is obvious. It really is like a Divorce! We have moved passed the emotional stuff and on to the financial settlement stage where cold hard reality is hitting. But it is hitting both sides, the EU really does stand to lose a lot, especially the poorer and southern states- which are already a headache for brussels without the loss of UK tourists (the british spend as much money abroad as germans and far more than any other EU state- twice as much as eg Italy). Also job creation, the uk has been a significant mitigator of the disaster that the eurozone has been to southern europe. it really is a possibility that the uk just hires eg indian people and we all go on holiday to turkey.

Edited May 23, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[Chunketh]

1 minute ago, debtlessmanc said:

This is obvious. It really is like a Divorce! We have moved on to financial settlement stage where cold hard reality is hitting. But it is hitting both sides, the EU really does stand to lose a lot, especially the poorer and southern states- which are already a headache for brussels without the loss of UK tourists (the british spend as much money abroad as germans and far more than any other EU state- twice as much as eg Italy). Also job creation, the uk has been a significant mitigator of the disaster that eurozone has been to southern europe. it really is a possibility that the uk just hires eg indian people and we all go on holiday to turkey.

I've not been to Turkey, but I am pretty sure I will always prefer Portugal/France/Spain/Italy over it.

[debtlessmanc]

2 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

I've not been to Turkey, but I am pretty sure I will always prefer Portugal/France/Spain/Italy over it.

Not at the moment though, it is quite revealing to see the efforts brussels and the individual states are making to pretend this summers holidays are back on, not really consistent with all the other talk about the virus. Although the UK tourism industry is large, the balance of tourist trade is clearly negative for the uk (and All northern EU states) and hugely positive for southern eu states and France. The problems in this regard in the EU are already being put to the test and it has hardly started. 

[IMHAL]

36 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

This is obvious. It really is like a Divorce! We have moved paased the emitionsl stuff and on to the financial settlement stage where cold hard reality is hitting. But it is hitting both sides, the EU really does stand to lose a lot, especially the poorer and southern states- which are already a headache for brussels without the loss of UK tourists (the british spend as much money abroad as germans and far more than any other EU state- twice as much as eg Italy). Also job creation, the uk has been a significant mitigator of the disaster that eurozone has been to southern europe. it really is a possibility that the uk just hires eg indian people and we all go on holiday to turkey.

The point is that it's not like a divorce between two peers. The EU is the economic big boy and we are the whimpering and whining dissaffected party. The EU has the power. They are dictating the terms. This is the reality of how trade deals are done and undone.

It will be no different when we engage with the USA, they are already dictating who we can do business with. You can call that a marriage of sorts if you like   

"better for you and worse for us, richer for you and for poorer for us, in our sickness and your health, to love, cherish, and to obey, obey, obey, till death us do part'

As for the delusion that people will all go off on holiday to Turkey... LOL 

 

Edited May 23, 2020 by IMHAL

[debtlessmanc]

11 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

The point is that it's not like a divorce between two peers. The EU is the economic big boy and we are the whimpering and whining dissaffected party. The EU has the power. They are dictating the terms. This is the reality of how trade deals are done and undone.

It will be no different when we engage with the USA, they are already dictating who we can do business with. You can call that a marriage of sorts if you like   "for better for worse, for richer for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love, cherish, and to obey, till death us do part'

As for the delusion that people will all go off on holiday to Turkey... LOL 

 

Mmm.. i am not deluded, i dont think the uk will recover for a very long time economically. I was only opining it is headache for both sides. Not much middle ground on this thread is there

Edited May 23, 2020 by debtlessmanc

[IMHAL]

6 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Mmm.. i am not deluded, i dont think the uk will recover for a very long time economically. I was only opining it is headache for both sides. Not much middle ground on this thread is there

I was refereing to your comment about everyone choosing to go on holiday to Turkey. How did you suppose that would be achieved, through collect spite towards the EU? or mandated by Priti Patel? So far as I am aware, we still live in a free country and can go on holiday where we like.

[crouch]

10 minutes ago, debtlessmanc said:

Mmm.. i am not deluded, i dont think the uk will recover for a very long time economically. I was only opining it is headache for both sides. Not much middle ground on this thread is there

On the subject of not realising things it has always struck me that Leavers at least have to think about why they want to leave the EU; they have to have a reason. Remainers have never had to think because their position is the status quo. This thread is ample evidence that many have no idea about the EU at all, indeed are profoundly ignorant of its workings.

Also the notion that all that matters is power and that anyone who has power will exercise it in the most rapcious manner seems not only to be irrational but contrary to revealed experience. The very notion of trade offs imply that agreements are mutually satisfactory whereas this blogger sees them as little more than exercises in power politics which would seem to doom them from the very beginning and question why they were concluded in the first place. This is not to say that one party gets more out of an agreement than another but the idea that extracting advantage from the other party is all that matters is very odd and indeed a dead end.

[debtlessmanc]

14 minutes ago, crouch said:

On the subject of not realising things it has always struck me that Leavers at least have to think about why they want to leave the EU; they have to have a reason. Remainers have never had to think because their position is the status quo. This thread is ample evidence that many have no idea about the EU at all, indeed are profoundly ignorant of its workings.

Also the notion that all that matters is power and that anyone who has power will exercise it in the most rapcious manner seems not only to be irrational but contrary to revealed experience. The very notion of trade offs imply that agreements are mutually satisfactory whereas this blogger sees them as little more than exercises in power politics which would seem to doom them from the very beginning and question why they were concluded in the first place. This is not to say that one party gets more out of an agreement than another but the idea that extracting advantage from the other party is all that matters is very odd and indeed a dead end.

As i pointed ages ago, some on here seem happy to impose all sorts of stuff on the uk. Almost as if the idea of having a nuclear armed failed state on the borders of the EU was desirable.