Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[crouch]

51 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

crouch just likes to perpetuate the idea that the EU consist of a bunch of buffoons who don't "get" the UK.

Nonsense on stilts as usual. I don't regard the EU as buffoons and I don't think whether they "get" the UK or not has anything to do with anything.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

You've completely rewritten the history of TM1.  She did not sign on the dotted line to the EU's text but dug her heels in and got significant concessions on guaranteed market access for the whole UK.  It was Boris Johnson who reverted back to what the EU originally proposed, with some window dressing.  If anything, he's proven to be a more willing supplicant.

Right, so she negotiates a deal which the vast majority thinks is BRINO and it's rejected three times. Johnson negotiates a deal which is passed and yet his deal is nearer to BRINO than hers. Something doesn't quite stack up here.

[Confusion of VIs]

 

5 hours ago, crouch said:

Reading between the lines it appears to me that Barnier's attitude is one of bafflement. He appears to think that this is TM2 and that all he has to do is roll up with his pre-prepared legal text and say "sign here" and that is what he calls a good negotiation. 

Hardly surprising the world is in the middle of a pandemic and the UK is still wittering on about fishing rights worth the square root of f/all even in normal times.

Several EU states have already said that Brexit negotiations are not a priority at the moment, so the chances of all 27 states spending time on considering UK proposals at the moment are pretty remote. That leaves us with 3 options a sensible transition extension, i.e. years not months, sign on the dotted line or just clear off.

And that's before we get to renegotiating all of our trade agreements in a newly protectionist world that also has far more pressing concerns than trade negotiations.

If you wanted to pick the worst possible time to leave the EU the end of 2020 would be just about perfect, every EU country will be looking to pull EU supply chain related jobs back from the UK and few other countries will be receptive to arguments about the benefits of further opening trade links with the UK.     

 

 

 

  

 

[Bruce Banner]

10 minutes ago, crouch said:

Right, so she negotiates a deal which the vast majority thinks is BRINO and it's rejected three times. Johnson negotiates a deal which is passed and yet his deal is nearer to BRINO than hers. Something doesn't quite stack up here.

Cummings.

[pig]

27 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Are you talking about the Chinese debt rumours?

The problem with these sort of rumours is, if people spread them and they turn out to be untrue, it only helps cement Trump's supporters minds.

 

Agreed - and on balance I held off from ‘biting’ - just yet anyway.

But reading through the supporting stuff that seems to have been substantiated... I mean it’s a lot of corruption and I wonder rather than simply being ‘stupid’ he’s kind of ‘lost’ and deeply fecked up in his own self created mire.

 

 

[slawek]

16 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

Hardly surprising the world is in the middle of a pandemic and the UK is still wittering on about fishing rights worth the square root of f/all even in normal times.

Several EU states have already said that Brexit negotiations are not a priority at the moment, so the chances of all 27 states spending time on considering UK proposals at the moment are pretty remote. That leaves us with 3 options a sensible transition extension, i.e. years not months, sign on the dotted line or just clear off.

And that's before we get to renegotiating all of our trade agreements in a newly protectionist world that also has far more pressing concerns than trade negotiations.

If you wanted to pick the worst possible time to leave the EU the end of 2020 would be just about perfect, every EU country will be looking to pull EU supply chain related jobs back from the UK and few other countries will be receptive to arguments about the benefits of further opening trade links with the UK.     

It could be the best time. The UK, by this I mean England, urgently needs to understand its place in the world. This will speed up the process of finding the bottom so that a new UK can emerge, one is at easy with the world and itself. Currently the UK behaves like a person who is desperately trying to prove it's important, hurting itself and others in the process.  

[crouch]

38 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hardly surprising the world is in the middle of a pandemic and the UK is still wittering on about fishing rights worth the square root of f/all even in normal times.

Barnier's complaint about the UK needing to seriously engage in the Brexit talks and lack of progress seems more of a complaint about the EU not getting what it wants more than anything.

41 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Several EU states have already said that Brexit negotiations are not a priority at the moment, so the chances of all 27 states spending time on considering UK proposals at the moment are pretty remote. That leaves us with 3 options a sensible transition extension, i.e. years not months, sign on the dotted line or just clear off.

Quite.

42 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

If you wanted to pick the worst possible time to leave the EU the end of 2020 would be just about perfect, every EU country will be looking to pull EU supply chain related jobs back from the UK and few other countries will be receptive to arguments about the benefits of further opening trade links with the UK.     

I'm not sure anyone is "picking" this time to leave the EU. 

However, there doesn't seem much merit in dragging out te negotiations. As for the supply chain argument that would happen anyway but the arguments for trade are no less robust than before.

This seems to be an argument of: "why oh why can't we just do the sensible thing and stay in the EU because we all know, yes really know, that there is no better alternative.

Bias - we all have it.

[dryrot]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Nonsense on stilts as usual. I don't regard the EU as buffoons and I don't think whether they "get" the UK or not has anything to do with anything.

You'll get a headache arguing. This last thread page is Remainers desperately trying to reassure each other. In the real world,the EU/Euro crisis gets ever harsher. The EU is not 27 countries happily working together but two irreconcilable blocs chained together by the Euro. Either they break the chain - abandon the Euro - or Germany/Nordics fund the South. This problem has been pointed out over and over and the Remainers will not admit it. Latest:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/24/macron-issues-ultimatum-europes-german-bloc-cough-covid-trillions/ 

"French president Emmanuel Macron did not pretend that there was a summit breakthrough. In a remarkable outburst afterwards he issued what could be interpreted an ultimatum. 

He had a warning for those rich northern states that "profit" so handsomely from exporting to the South: they might wake up one day to find that the EU single market is "no longer there" unless they are careful. "If you let part of Europe fall, the whole of Europe will fall," he said.

"The countries that are blocking are the same ones as ever, the frugals: Germany, the Netherlands... whose  deep psychology and political constraints justify very hard positions," he said."

This accusatorial tone will surely grate in Berlin, the Hague, or Vienna. They know that Mr Macron is trying to bounce the North into fiscal union, exploiting the emotions of the pandemic to change Europe’s constitutional structure. Such a jump violates treaty law. It breaches the German Basic Law and alienates the Bundestag’s tax-and-spend prerogatives. It cannot legally be done with a flick of the political fingers."

How glad I am that we are not in the Euro, and wont be throwing billions (from 31/12/20) at the crashing EU project 

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by dryrot

[crouch]

5 minutes ago, dryrot said:

You'll get a headache arguing. This last thread page is Remainers desperately trying to reassure each other. In the real world,the EU/Euro crisis gets ever harsher. The EU is not 27 countries happily working together but two irreconcilable blocs chained together by the Euro. Either they break the chain - abandon the Euro - or Germany/Nordics fund the South. This problem has been pointed out over and over and the Remainers will not admit it. Latest:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/24/macron-issues-ultimatum-europes-german-bloc-cough-covid-trillions/ 

"French president Emmanuel Macron did not pretend that there was a summit breakthrough. In a remarkable outburst afterwards he issued what could be interpreted an ultimatum. 

He had a warning for those rich northern states that "profit" so handsomely from exporting to the South: they might wake up one day to find that the EU single market is "no longer there" unless they are careful. "If you let part of Europe fall, the whole of Europe will fall," he said.

"The countries that are blocking are the same ones as ever, the frugals: Germany, the Netherlands... whose  deep psychology and political constraints justify very hard positions," he said."

This accusatorial tone will surely grate in Berlin, the Hague, or Vienna. They know that Mr Macron is trying to bounce the North into fiscal union, exploiting the emotions of the pandemic to change Europe’s constitutional structure. Such a jump violates treaty law. It breaches the German Basic Law and alienates the Bundestag’s tax-and-spend prerogatives. It cannot legally be done with a flick of the political fingers."

How glad I am that we are not in the Euro, and wont be throwing billions (from 31/12/20) at the crashing EU project 

 

The Euro is a ticking time bomb and I'm amazed it's lasted until now. Notwithstanding this I can't see it as sustainable without fiscal and banking union and you won't get that so IMV it's the long slide to oblivion, with increasing economic divergence between North and South, and with the ultimate realisation the the EU is just an empty meaningless shell.

[dryrot]

14 minutes ago, crouch said:

The Euro is a ticking time bomb and I'm amazed it's lasted until now. Notwithstanding this I can't see it as sustainable without fiscal and banking union and you won't get that so IMV it's the long slide to oblivion, with increasing economic divergence between North and South, and with the ultimate realisation the the EU is just an empty meaningless shell.

Agree. And I fear the upheaval when the breakup happens. (And the longer it drags on the worse it will be.)

And, in passing, I think Macron's tone - to his supposed EU "partners"! -  is harsher than the criticism Barnier has made of UK negotiators.

Edited April 25, 2020 by dryrot

[allfiredup]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

It could be the best time. The UK, by this I mean England, urgently needs to understand its place in the world. This will speed up the process of finding the bottom so that a new UK can emerge, one is at easy with the world and itself. Currently the UK behaves like a person who is desperately trying to prove it's important, hurting itself and others in the process.  

Haha you're such a troll!

[Bruce Banner]

2 minutes ago, allfiredup said:

Haha you're such a troll!

Why? England does need to understand it's place in the world. Delusions of grandeur based on times long past.

[slawek]

4 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

Why? England does need to understand it's place in the world. Delusions of grandeur based on times long past.

Some will never understand.  “Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.”

[allfiredup]

Its funny how you foreigners are always more concerned with what England's doing than what the English are! hahaha

[Bruce Banner]

1 minute ago, allfiredup said:

Its funny how you foreigners are always more concerned with what England's doing than what the English are! hahaha

It's all about foreigners to Brexiteers . 

Well I'm not a foreigner but I feel more European than British. 

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, dryrot said:

You'll get a headache arguing. This last thread page is Remainers desperately trying to reassure each other.

No, the last few pages was the usual brexiter stuff trying to attribute incompetence or bafflement or whatever other terms you wish to throw at the EU for the fact that the UK isn't getting the magnificent deal that was promised before and after the referendum by the brexit side.

What is there to reassure ourselves about? Lies won, we all see this. No denying it. Brexit will go ahead. Brexiters will continue to move the already almost invisible goalposts. Brexiters will continue to blame the EU for it all. Brexiters will continue to be fanatically obsessed with their dislike for this project that goes against their desire for a smaller more nationalist world. 

 

[thecrashingisles]

3 hours ago, crouch said:

Right, so she negotiates a deal which the vast majority thinks is BRINO and it's rejected three times. Johnson negotiates a deal which is passed and yet his deal is nearer to BRINO than hers. Something doesn't quite stack up here.

His deal is closer to the EU's text than hers.  That you think BRINO is the EU's objective is your projection.

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Why? England does need to understand it's place in the world. Delusions of grandeur based on times long past.

People who have this view should actively support the dissolution of the UK.  That England has its own union but not its own parliament is bound to cause problems.

[thecrashingisles]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

The Euro is a ticking time bomb and I'm amazed it's lasted until now. Notwithstanding this I can't see it as sustainable without fiscal and banking union and you won't get that so IMV it's the long slide to oblivion, with increasing economic divergence between North and South, and with the ultimate realisation the the EU is just an empty meaningless shell.

These are just words that you've shown you don't understand well enough to take a view on.

[crouch]

5 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

These are just words that you've shown you don't understand well enough to take a view on.

Insufferable arrogance - and not for the first time - and so typical of the Remain position.

[crouch]

12 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

His deal is closer to the EU's text than hers.  That you think BRINO is the EU's objective is your projection.

Where did I say that BRINO is the EU's objective?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

5 hours ago, allfiredup said:

Its funny how you foreigners are always more concerned with what England's doing than what the English are! hahaha

Careful now, your mask is slipping. 

[thecrashingisles]

4 hours ago, crouch said:

Insufferable arrogance - and not for the first time - and so typical of the Remain position.

So roughly what percentage of GDP does the EU budget need to rise to in order to make the Eurozone sustainable?

[crouch]

9 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

So roughly what percentage of GDP does the EU budget need to rise to in order to make the Eurozone sustainable?

The fact that you pose this question clearly demonstrates that you have no clue about these issues.

Funds channelled through the EU budget would be discretionary even with enhanced democratic oversight; what is required is a more complete fiscal union where transfers are automatic and not discretionary; they are embodied in a central tax and spend system. The ultimate structure to achieve this would be a full federal union; whether such a sustainable mechanism could exist short of a full federal union is difficult to say.

[sPinwheel]

19 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

These are just words that you've shown you don't understand well enough to take a view on.

Cargo Cult.