Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Kosmin]

8 hours ago, slawek said:

At first glance I thought the box on the left said: "You can expect to be slightly richer..." rather than "significantly richer." I wondered if therefore the potential harm to the economy would outweigh the benefits. I still think it might, which would help explain why the rich, like everyone else, seem to be divided on Brexit.

 

 

Edited September 1, 2019 by Kosmin

[yodigo]

3 hours ago, jonb2 said:

More commentary ... but just keep the facts between us as they might cause overload to certain people here.

 

Imagine you have a ferry port that can usually handle 10,000 lorries per day (like Dover). In the yellowhammer reports they were saying it might take a few months to achieve about 70% of current cross border flow. So we're talking probably more than 3000 lorries that can't get through - some of those may never set off, but some will and they'll be queuing on both sides, in and out. UK customs will need to inspect everything coming in to some extent, even if they're basically waving pharmaceuticals through. There's a limit to how relaxed the UK customs can be with shipments from the EU, because otherwise another WTO member will accuse us of putting unfair controls on their exports to the UK - it's called the most favoured nation rule. Not to mention, unless every pharmaceutical lorry is going to have a fluorescent sign on it saying "pharma", be expetidited and given queue jumping benefits at every stage, there's going to be some impact. The question is just how much.

Maybe it wouldn't be so bad if pharmaceuticals were the only concern, but lots of other time sensitive goods need to pass through the border as well - fresh foods, chemicals (for water treatment, industrial inputs), engineered components (just in time supply chains for automotive, aerospace etc.) - these are just a few that spring to mind. Pharmaceuticals even if they're highest priority will be competing for resources with these other urgent shipments.

I'm talking about full lorries here, but if you just want to send a box of medicines or whatever by a parcel service (Parcelforce, FedEx, UPS...) - they're going to be under the same sort of pressures and it'll all be mixed in together with other boxes.

I don't think a lot of people realise how easy it is currently to get something to/from another EU nation and how deeply this is ingrained in commerce. You can literally just send it, same as you would send something from London to Leeds. Try doing the same to a nation not in the European customs union - customs forms, costs, middlemen, regulatory paperwork, delays. Even small stuff like what wood packing crates are made out of is something that has to be considered with the rest of the world.

Politics of Brexit aside, I can't believe we're considering no deal as a viable solution for the single reason of the chaos it'll cause at ports.

============

And you have to check trucks with drugs coming in. Because even in a tariff free situation the drugs would still be subject to border checks. These checks are estimated to cause a 5-10$% increase in costs. I mean imagine trucks with NO CHECKS! The entire black market would run out of these trucks.

And finally if there's physical delays then these trucks are physically delayed.

Also?

The loss of the Medical Regulator Authority from the UK is a 4-6 billion quid loss to our economy (bigger than fishing) and it's jobs that never come back. A simple solution is for the UK to simply accept EU drug laws and match our laws to them so we can keep importing drugs. Obviously drug companies can now charge what they want though to us and any contract up for renegotiation has a higher chance of drug companies pushing higher rates. Finally the weak pound means purchasing drugs is harder and the NHS hasn't seen a 20% pay increase to its drug budget to make up for this.

TL:DR everything's pricier, we now have to follow EU laws on drugs over making the laws for the EU, we lost 6 billion pounds that will never be replaced (a year), everything costs more pounds to purchase and this is without even looking into loss of EU 2020 projects, medical research projects and access to NHS staffing. Added to the risks of a US Trade deal.

Just after Yellowhammer was leaked BBC Radio 5 interviewed the French chap in charge of Boulonge-Calais port and he said that as long as the lorry drivers get some paper work sorted out then there wouldn't be any queues or problems bringing medicines over the channel.

[dances with sheeple]

3 hours ago, dugsbody said:

We're leaving the club. We're leaving the club. We're leaving the club.

Do you get it? I hope so.

Now, when you leave the club, you don't get the benefits of the club, which is seamless trade in a  single market. You literally voted for this for ideological reasons so why are you trying to tell other people to not behave like you do?

If the club is so great, why did the UK vote to leave it, and why are so many EU citizens against it?

[GrizzlyDave]

2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

If the club is so great, why did the UK vote to leave it, and why are so many EU citizens against it?

The club is great if you are a French farmer, German car maker, Italian tomato grower, or Poland receiving billions per year in handouts...

[Bruce Banner]

2 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

If the club is so great, why did the UK vote to leave it

Hoodwinked by Cummings?

[dances with sheeple]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

The EU have recognised that there will be consequences.... and the are accepting these consequences.

For them, the consequences will be proportionately less (as a share of GDP) tha for us AND they are prepared to suffer them to keep the integrity of the EU intact. It is that simple my friend. 

No the potential downside for the EU is far greater, they are looking at the collapse of a currency union, the demise of a political union and a banking/economic crisis if they f*uck this up.

[GrizzlyDave]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7416155/Anti-Brexit-protesters-burn-British-flag-outside-Houses-Parliament.html

[dances with sheeple]

56 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

What’s the Eurozone QE total now?

€2.5 trillion?

Exactly, it is a f*ucking farce, better all round if more countries demand referendums and go their own way IMO.

[IMHAL]

49 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

What’s the Eurozone QE total now?

€2.5 trillion?

Gdp of the EU. About 19 trillion ....lets say qe is 2.5 trillion......13%

Gdp of the UK. About 2.5 trillion.....qe is about 0.5 trillion.......20%

Sounds like the uk have a bigger problem than the EU.

Loss of gdp for the Eu as a percentage of gdp due to brexit is also much much less that the uk.....

But they needs us more than we need them...rightho 

 

 

[OnionTerror]

20 minutes ago, yodigo said:

Just after Yellowhammer was leaked BBC Radio 5 interviewed the French chap in charge of Boulonge-Calais port and he said that as long as the lorry drivers get some paper work sorted out then there wouldn't be any queues or problems bringing medicines over the channel.

Did he mention the queues at the BIP ports, especially for phyto & physanitary goods?  Unless the flows into the EU are throttled right back in order to prevent queues...

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7416155/Anti-Brexit-protesters-burn-British-flag-outside-Houses-Parliament.html

Far less potential consequences, although some sections of our society would see this as a serious offence, than the flag burning that is going on in HK at the moment though?

[crouch]

2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Loss of gdp for the Eu as a percentage of gdp due to brexit is also much much less that the uk.....

But they needs us more than we need them...rightho 

The top four countries of the EU comprise around 60% of the total GDP. The UK is around 15% of that 60%.

Make no mistake the UK is one of the big four in the EU and its exit is a major blow to the EU. Your implication that the EU looks on our departure with insouciance is wide of the mark. 

[dances with sheeple]

2 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Gdp of the EU. About 19 trillion ....lets say qe is 2.5 trillion......13%

Gdp of the UK. About 2.5 trillion.....qe is about 0.5 trillion.......20%

Sounds like the uk have a bigger problem than the EU.

Loss of gdp for the Eu as a percentage of gdp due to brexit is also much much less that the uk.....

But they needs us more than we need them...rightho 

 

 

All part of the bigger banking system jigsaw though, things like Brexit make it harder to keep it all going and prop the debt bubble.

[IMHAL]

6 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Exactly, it is a f*ucking farce, better all round if more countries demand referendums and go their own way IMO.

.... what do you mean by that Einstein? Or is relativity beyond your grasp.

[dances with sheeple]

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

.... what do you mean by that Einstein? Or is relativity beyond your grasp.

Explain relativity.

[IMHAL]

19 minutes ago, crouch said:

The top four countries of the EU comprise around 60% of the total GDP. The UK is around 15% of that 60%.

Make no mistake the UK is one of the big four in the EU and its exit is a major blow to the EU. Your implication that the EU looks on our departure with insouciance is wide of the mark. 

Wrong. That is not what I said.... they would rather we stayed, as they will also hurt by us leaving... it's just that we will hurt much more.

They will catch a cold... we will get flu.

Edited September 1, 2019 by IMHAL

[IMHAL]

17 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Explain relativity.

Woosh!

Obviously not Einstein when it comes to quips. Relative to the amount of GDP, the EU has QE'd much less than us.

Now explain your indignation without getting embarrased.

[zugzwang]

16 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

All part of the bigger banking system jigsaw though, things like Brexit make it harder to keep it all going and prop the debt bubble.

Wrong. Germany's historic saving habit is the problem. A mechanism for distributing German surpluses across the entire EU is what's required to repair the European banking system.

[zugzwang]

21 minutes ago, dances with sheeple said:

Explain relativity.

Space-time tells matter how to move, matter tells space-time how to curve.

[jonb2]

56 minutes ago, yodigo said:

Just after Yellowhammer was leaked BBC Radio 5 interviewed the French chap in charge of Boulonge-Calais port and he said that as long as the lorry drivers get some paper work sorted out then there wouldn't be any queues or problems bringing medicines over the channel.

OK, so you may find there is more to his statement than meets the eye. If the driver has got ALL the necessary stuff - then it's OK - but the Road Haulage Association points out this being highly unlikely. As most businesses will not be able to handle the extra burden and the Tories have been sitting on their ****.

Anyway

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/transport/road-transport/press-release/road-haulage-association/100989/rha-says-advice

However, he did not explain the complete picture.

Following a meeting at the Port, RHA chief executive Richard Burnett said: “At our meeting in Calais today Monsieur Puissesseau made it abundantly clear that when a vehicle arrives at Dover, whether destined for Calais, Dunkirk or Coquelles, if the driver is without their pre-customs declarations or without a permit (if it’s a British driver) or a transit document (if delivering to a different country), they will be rejected.

“To complete that initial documentation check could take up to four or five minutes - still a significant delay. If the declaration is not fully completed, the shipping lines will reject the vehicle - it will have to turn away or park up to get the declaration completed.”

But to access that process British businesses will have to complete the right documentation in the first place.

“With 11 weeks to go until we leave the EU, we have nowhere enough clearing agents with sufficient knowledge to give business the help and advice they need.

British businesses won’t have time to put the processes in place themselves – they simply don’t have the resources.

“We also need to be aware that the customs process has still not been agreed from a French perspective. They may well be checking trucks, despite Chris Grayling’s belief that this will not be the case. The French customs may well check for clearance documentation at Calais, Dunkirk or Coquelles.

“There may even be checks at Calais to check the export declarations. This has not been clarified but in the event of these checks, there will inevitably be long queues around the Port.

“In addition, the number of migrants we have seen today clearly shows that the issue has definitely not gone away. Delays at the Port will simply act as an even greater magnet to those intent on reaching UK shores by whatever means possible – usually on the back of a truck.”

And this ........

"Please credit the following comment to James Hookham, Deputy CEO of the FTA – the business organisation which represents the logistics industry.

“The government’s No Deal funding for business, announced today (1 August 2019), falls well short of what will be required to ensure that all those organisations which currently trade with the EU will be able to continue operating smoothly and efficiently in the event that the UK leaves the EU without a deal.

5% of the fund allocated by the Treasury today equates to only £745 per business – far less than will be needed for each business to understand and implement the procedures, staff and systems required for routine No Deal trading.

The allowances announced may enable the government to say they have helped business, but the reality once again leaves logistics operators carrying the burden of adapting to and adopting new operating procedures at the last minute (many of the industry’s issues are still to be answered by government), and potentially carrying the can for a lack of government planning.  Industry deserves and needs the appropriate boost, rather than the damp squib promised today.”

https://www.lloydsloadinglist.com/freight-directory/news/Onus-on-hauliers-to-get-no-deal-Brexit-paperwork-right/74739.htm1

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/02/06/long-read-there-is-no-such-thing-as-completely-frictionless-trade-across-a-border/

https://theloadstar.com/calais-under-fire-from-haulage-association-claiming-port-wont-be-ready-for-brexit/

https://www.wsta.co.uk/press/836-uk-trade-will-be-stopped-dead-if-goods-have-to-be-declared

https://www.eadt.co.uk/business/delays-at-felixstowe-port-and-impact-of-brexit-1-5817106

https://www.dw.com/en/french-port-of-dieppe-living-in-fear-of-brexit/a-47874573

https://www.cieh.org/food-safety-integrity/2019/february/brexit-food-safety-checkmate/

Do you remember this - the French will have even more reason to kick up a fuss

https://www.thelocal.fr/20190305/french-customs-brexit-causes-major-disruption-at-calais

Finally - this qoute

http://www.controlo.co.uk/news/rha-rejects-assurances-about-post-brexit-calais-delays

"Nevertheless, the UK government acknowledged that all of the additional ferry freight services it has commissioned in these three contracts “will be equivalent to around 8% of normal flows across the Dover Straights”, adding. “Whilst this will not be sufficient to mitigate the full level of disruption possible in a worst-case scenario, it will enable the government to provide essential capacity for the highest priority goods including medical supplies.”

With freight and logistics operators and their representatives anticipating massive disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit, especially to cross-Channel freight services, Lloyd’s Loading List today reported that air charter brokers are receiving more and more enquiries from freight forwarders about securing air cargo capacity to offset the potential repercussions of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on the supply chains of their shipper customers."

Never trust a Tory.

[GrizzlyDave]

33 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Gdp of the EU. About 19 trillion ....lets say qe is 2.5 trillion......13%

Gdp of the UK. About 2.5 trillion.....qe is about 0.5 trillion.......20%

Sounds like the uk have a bigger problem than the EU.

Loss of gdp for the Eu as a percentage of gdp due to brexit is also much much less that the uk.....

But they needs us more than we need them...rightho 

 

 

You need to work it out in terms of GDP of the Eurozone - not the EU.

Eurozone GDP €12.3tn = 20%

[IMHAL]

3 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

You need to work it out in terms of GDP of the Eurozone - not the EU.

Eurozone GDP €12.3tn = 20%

So, about the same....,.and your point was what? 

I assume you had a point, or are you just running  some kind of a random quiz.

[jonb2]

This made me laugh

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/07/tory-mps-suggest-firms-draw-up-list-for-bonfire-of-eu-laws-after-brexit

Considering the onerous red-tape anybody exporting to the EU will go through. Fecking liars.

[jonb2]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Yes he was serious.

All over the web there are people with serious medical conditions shitting themslves over what will happen with their medication.

I suggest you rein your self-righeous neck in.

[IMHAL]

3 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

All over the web there are people with serious medical conditions shitting themslves over what will happen with their medication.

I suggest you rein your self-righeous neck in.

And when there are deaths.... he will still be blaming anyone other that his beloved Brexit.