Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[GrizzlyDave]

19 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

It should mean the end of Van Gend en Loos...You do need to read up on how the EEA works...if you care that is...

Dare I say it; a customs cooperation agreement  

Do you have any links on CCAs?

[pig]

1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

Good point. And one that proves that democracy is indeed dead if it ever existed before.

By your own admission you have said remainers have no representation. When they bring back hanging, I wonder how you will feel when it's voted through? Or when you have no say when the NHS is privatised? Or when trade unions are banned?

See, despite the shouts of betrayal and the end of democracy by the Brexit lot  - for remainers, who are always right, we knew this was true some months after the referendum - but nobody listened.

 

I’ve just read that Vote Leave dropped its appeal against being found to have broken electoral law on....the 29th March.

Apparently, according to Gisela Stuart,  they couldn’t prove their innocence because they had destroyed the evidence. I kid you not.

 

[MARTINX9]

15 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

There are existing controls as an EU member that would have enacted to restrict FOM, but decided not to..

You mean like:

 

introducing ID cards and requiring EU migrants to register with the local police/council after 3 months - as almost every other member state does

having a highly regulated employment market - making it tougher for new arrivals to do casual work

properly enforcing the need to work or provide proof of the ability to support yourself to gain residency - including for pensioner migrants - rather than giving them welfare and if they are elderly free social care (as their assets are less than £23k) while charging British people who have paid in for 40 years £60k a year for a care home?

ending our free at the point of use healthcare system and replacing the NHS with a social insurance scheme - beyond the EHIC 3 months  free emergency cover. For example a working age Brit who doesn't work in Poland/most of Europe has to buy private insurance as they aren't eligible for the contributory government healthcare system but the NHS provides free care for all.

ending our non contributory benefits system - you don't pay in you don't take out - including abolishing tax credits/housing benefit (which almost no eastern european nation has).

Yes - lots we could do to control freedom of movement - but politically impossible as even a Tory majority government got cold feet at cutting tax credits materially! 

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by MARTINX9

[Sheeple Splinter]

9 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

There are existing controls as an EU member that we could have enacted to restrict FOM, but decided not to..

Which ones?

[GrizzlyDave]

5 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Will Corbyn trust May, especially as she'll be off in a few months and the next PM could tell Corbyn to bugger off..So Corbyn tells May to do one, and Labour get the blame for a no deal..

I wouldn’t trust her a millimetre.

She has been plain nasty and rude to Corbyn for years.

She has marginalised him and ignored him.

——

I don’t see this working out successfully between May and Corbyn.

This is all about May and her Legacy. And maybe a bit about the Tory party.

The rest of us can go whistle.

[MARTINX9]

4 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Which ones?

None in practice as I have highlighted above given our welfare system and lack of controls/regulation of new arrivals.

Every other EU/EEA member state bar Denmark now has a national ID card I believe - even Ireland has a public services card held by 80% of the population and haS introduced a passport card which equates to the same thing for EEA travel and residency. Introduce a national ID card here and people would claim its the creation of a fascist state!

[frederico]

33 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I wouldn’t trust her a millimetre.

She has been plain nasty and rude to Corbyn for years.

She has marginalised him and ignored him.

——

I don’t see this working out successfully between May and Corbyn.

This is all about May and her Legacy. And maybe a bit about the Tory party.

The rest of us can go whistle.

Corbyn will want an election, he must be able to smell it now. May is mortally wounded, he would be mad to let her off now.

[GrizzlyDave]

16 minutes ago, frederico said:

Corbyn will want an election, he must be able to smell it now. May is mortally wounded, he would be mad to let her off now.

 

I just keep thinking that there are people who actually voted for her in a general election. I mean what the actual feck.  I detest her.

[ZeroSumGame]

24 minutes ago, frederico said:

Corbyn will want an election, he must be able to smell it now. May is mortally wounded, he would be mad to let her off now.

The election in 2017 was a thing of true beauty : and I'm no Labour supporter. Maybot lost a 20% lead in the polls.

Jezza ought to string her a long by agreeing to everything and meaning none of it, until he gets a GE following a vote of no confidence.

I'm sure the old geezer can see the elephant trap that Maybot is trying set up for his party.

[frederico]

7 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

The election in 2017 was a thing of true beauty : and I'm no Labour supporter. Maybot lost a 20% lead in the polls.

Jezza ought to string her a long by agreeing to everything and meaning none of it, until he gets a GE following a vote of no confidence.

I'm sure the old geezer can see the elephant trap that Maybot is trying set up for his party.

Yes, he has to go for an election, which May can surely never agree to.

Actually I'll go so far as to say she won't offer an election and Corbyn will come out with some reason why he couldn't agree with May. So back to square one.

But in the meantime secret preparations for EUR election and then kick the can.

I can't see eu27 allowing no deal despite their bluster.

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, crouch said:

I was referring to the PD effectively being legally binding.

I don't think if we went with May's deal we would be able to strike FTAs with third countries; effectively Article 184 of the WA assumes we'll be in a customs union which would debar us from FTAs.

If we left with no deal we could do this at least theoretically and, after all, we do have a net £70 bn trade deficit with the EU.

You imply that we've gained massively from the EU.  Frankly I don't believe this. Whilst I don't deny what you say about the difficulties of striking trade deals I think that it's actually made very little difference to the economy since 1973 and we're better off out. I don't imply it's made things worse but I don't think it's made things better.

 

As good as.

I have been banging on about how it will tie us into the SM/customs union for months now.  

That said, a no deal will also prevent us from signing FTA's with third countries that are any better than those already signed by the EU. Partly because, unless we take leave of our senses, we will prioritise our FTA with the EU over FTAs with other countries and partly because the EU includes clauses in their deals that prevent better terms being offered to other countries than to the EU   

I do think we have gained from our membership from the EU, how massively is debatable but the fact that we have already lost around 2.5% of GDP (several times our cost of membership) indicates that overall it is a large positive. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

No deal is now officially buried. 

Bookies have made an absolute killing on that one. 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Care to hazard a guess as to what proportion of that 44% have the first idea of what a no deal exit will involve. 

[copydude]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

I don’t see this working out successfully between May and Corbyn.

This is all about May and her Legacy. And maybe a bit about the Tory party.

The rest of us can go whistle.

It's a big risk for Corbyn. There were some polls a few months ago which suggested Labour support would drop to LD levels if he were seen as an 'enabler'.

Not to mention that the younger members (Momentum) are pro-EU. Were you aware of the 'Love Corbyn / Hate Brexit campaign? (T-shirts still on sale.)

What will she trade for Lab support? Election? Con lead over Lab slumping in polls. Cross party takeover of further negotiations? Anathema to ERG, Cabinet et al.)

Upside for TM. If Jeremy doesn't co-operate, he can be blamed as the 'Brexit Betrayer'.  

Another downside for Jeremy, even if he takes the flack and co-operates no guarantee of deal passing in the commons. (The Oh Noes have it again. Oh noes!)

[dugsbody]

5 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Yes, your post is an excellent example!

 

I made a real and relevant point accompanied with an infographic and a couple of banter emoticons...

You don't understand what argument from fallacy is it seems. You can read the link again.

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

None in practice as I have highlighted above given our welfare system and lack of controls/regulation of new arrivals.

Every other EU/EEA member state bar Denmark now has a national ID card I believe - even Ireland has a public services card held by 80% of the population and haS introduced a passport card which equates to the same thing for EEA travel and residency. Introduce a national ID card here and people would claim its the creation of a fascist state!

CoVI posted about a UK, ID card upthread, IIRC political issues and too expensive.

Worth pointing out that, like the UK, Ireland does not require EU/EEA workers to register.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, frederico said:

Corbyn will want an election, he must be able to smell it now. May is mortally wounded, he would be mad to let her off now.

I suspect the deal is that Labour backs either her deal or something nearer a customs union and then she calls an election. If I were a Conservative MP I now wouldn't trust May.

[copydude]

1 hour ago, MARTINX9 said:

Introduce a national ID card here and people would claim its the creation of a fascist state!

ID cards in France, Belgium and Holland were introduced by the Nazis.

[GrizzlyDave]

30 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

As good as.

I have been banging on about how it will tie us into the SM/customs union for months now.  

That said, a no deal will also prevent us from signing FTA's with third countries that are any better than those already signed by the EU. Partly because, unless we take leave of our senses, we will prioritise our FTA with the EU over FTAs with other countries and partly because the EU includes clauses in their deals that prevent better terms being offered to other countries than to the EU   

I do think we have gained from our membership from the EU, how massively is debatable but the fact that we have already lost around 2.5% of GDP (several times our cost of membership) indicates that overall it is a large positive. 

That’s a very fair post.

I would also say our membership has been positive.

Unforunately it has become something I am uncomfortable with remaining within, and as we all know I have deep concerns as to where it is headed.

20 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Care to hazard a guess as to what proportion of that 44% have the first idea of what a no deal exit will involve. 

?

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, frederico said:

Corbyn will want an election, he must be able to smell it now. May is mortally wounded, he would be mad to let her off now.

Corbyn has been calling for an election at any and every opportunity. 

May continues to be stuck between a rock and a hard place and in one likely scenario, Labour will now be campaigning against a bisected former Conservative party.

[Sheeple Splinter]

15 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

You don't understand what argument from fallacy is it seems. You can read the link again.

 

No need, since you clearly don't understand what I understand.

Any luck with Clegg and your political duopoly thoughts?

[Confusion of VIs]

 

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

These are my thoughts too. I can’t see Labour agreeing to this without a People’s Vote/Public Vote/Endorsing Vote/Remainers Vote (what ever it’s called now).

The Tories won't get off that easily, when the no deal SHTF it will be the government that carries the can. The timing of the next election ensures that.   

[Sheeple Splinter]

43 minutes ago, frederico said:

Yes, he has to go for an election, which May can surely never agree to.

Actually I'll go so far as to say she won't offer an election and Corbyn will come out with some reason why he couldn't agree with May. So back to square one.

But in the meantime secret preparations for EUR election and then kick the can.

I can't see eu27 allowing no deal despite their bluster.

They need the UK within their grasp.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

You mean like:

 

introducing ID cards and requiring EU migrants to register with the local police/council after 3 months - as almost every other member state does

having a highly regulated employment market - making it tougher for new arrivals to do casual work

properly enforcing the need to work or provide proof of the ability to support yourself to gain residency - including for pensioner migrants - rather than giving them welfare and if they are elderly free social care (as their assets are less than £23k) while charging British people who have paid in for 40 years £60k a year for a care home?

ending our free at the point of use healthcare system and replacing the NHS with a social insurance scheme - beyond the EHIC 3 months  free emergency cover. For example a working age Brit who doesn't work in Poland/most of Europe has to buy private insurance as they aren't eligible for the contributory government healthcare system but the NHS provides free care for all.

ending our non contributory benefits system - you don't pay in you don't take out - including abolishing tax credits/housing benefit (which almost no eastern european nation has).

Yes - lots we could do to control freedom of movement - but politically impossible as even a Tory majority government got cold feet at cutting tax credits materially! 

 

You could do all that, if you are a fan of ocean boiling.

 

 

 

 

[GrizzlyDave]

9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

The Tories won't get off that easily, when the no deal SHTF it will be the government that carries the can. The timing of the next election ensures that.   

True. What is was trying to get at is that Labour is also deeply divided. Remainers within Labour will be pushing hard for a mechanism that could bring remain.

I don’t think Corbyn wants to remain. He’s old school Benn and is happy enough outside the EU. But he has a nest of vipers in the party.