Brexit Vote May Spark Recession, Mark Carney Warns

[CunningPlan]

Not too far off actually - International Passenger Survey conducted by clipboard wielding staff - I am not joking:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0788bcb 1 minute in...

Might be useful info:

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/faqs

That BBC clip is remarkable. Aside from the fact that despite leaving and returning hundreds of times I have never been 'clipboarded' how can anyone possibly quote these numbers with a straight face?

[Squeeky]

Why all the carney hate on this of all things. He suggested that if we leave the EU there will be a recession and everything will crash around our ears. Isn't that what people have been banking on since erm.. when was this site created again? ... now for his interest policy of do nothing and hope the wheels don't fall off... and if they do, well I didn't do anything so I can't really be to blame, now that is a different kettle of fish.

As for being impartial. His job is to look at the macro economic situation... little things like say leaving what is largely a trade partnership (amongst many other things) with the rest of the EU is probably something he should be running the numbers on.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Squeeky

[long time lurking]

Why all the carney hate on this of all things. He suggested that if we leave the EU there will be a recession and everything will crash around our ears. Isn't that what people have been banking on since erm.. when was this site created again? ... now for his interest policy of do nothing and hope the wheels don't fall off... and if they do, well I didn't do anything so I can't really be to blame, now that is a different kettle of fish.

As for being impartial. His job is to look at the macro economic situation... little things like say leaving what is largely a trade partnership (amongst many other things) with the rest of the EU is probably something he should be running the numbers on.

Well that's the problem he`s done jack shit so why start chirping now when he is supposed to be independent ,,,would not have anything to do with the likleyhood we are heading into a recession would it....quick look over there it`s nowt to do with me

[GreenDevil]

Look what he did to the housing market in one of the largest least populated countries. Now imagine what he can do to the mostly densely populated, smallest, immigration loving Hpi country?

G and Ts with the bullingdon boys all round. Party's only just started.

Edited May 12, 2016 by GreenDevil

[olde guto]

Why all the carney hate on this of all things. He suggested that if we leave the EU there will be a recession and everything will crash around our ears. Isn't that what people have been banking on since erm.. when was this site created again? ... now for his interest policy of do nothing and hope the wheels don't fall off... and if they do, well I didn't do anything so I can't really be to blame, now that is a different kettle of fish.

As for being impartial. His job is to look at the macro economic situation... little things like say leaving what is largely a trade partnership (amongst many other things) with the rest of the EU is probably something he should be running the numbers on.

I'm no fan of Carney, but he has to operate in the world of realpolitik, those with a particular idealogical viewpoint will never like that (unless he happens to do what they want).

[R K]

A Evans-Pritchard ‏@AmbroseEP 33m33 minutes ago

IMF's Lagarde just now. Brexit -1.5% to GDP at best, to -9.5% worst. "CA deficit to play possible accelerating factor for downside risk"

Descending into the completely absurd now.

[crashmonitor]

I sort of know now how the Scot nats felt...better to be poor than controlled and immigration is the key for me. So will be voting out.

Of course with the oil price as it is now and a Scottish populace that relies on welfare and public sector the effects would have been beyond catalcysmic for them...they would be on the breadline already and totally bankrupt beyond Greece.. For the Uk as a whole, we will probably get a house price crash, a collapse in GDP, but what the hell.

At the end of the day it is not the plebs that will be bricking it but the politicians with their BTL Blair style family trusts propped up by unlimited immigration. What a c%%t Blair was.

Edited May 13, 2016 by crashmonitor

[Errol]

All this brexit scaremongering is just ludicrous. Reaching anti-Putin mania levels now.

It will make more people vote 'Out'.

[billybong]

A Evans-Pritchard ‏@AmbroseEP 33m33 minutes ago

IMF's Lagarde just now. Brexit -1.5% to GDP at best, to -9.5% worst. "CA deficit to play possible accelerating factor for downside risk"

Descending into the completely absurd now.

Still waiting for the bbc radio's "Reality Check Unit" to run those sort of Bremain claims and figures through its "unit" - they only seem to look into Brexit claims.

Edited May 13, 2016 by billybong

[EssKay]

They had Norman Lamont on Newsnight last night opining on Carney's comments/tone.

He was remarkably restrained for someone who is a Brexiter.

Makes me wonder how many Brexiters are really that passionate about leaving vs how many (particularly the Tories) are just going through the motions because they have historically been Euro sceptic

[billybong]

Not too far off actually - International Passenger Survey conducted by clipboard wielding staff - I am not joking:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0788bcb 1 minute in...

Might be useful info:

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/faqs

How pathetic is the clipboard counting system. Prone to all sorts of misleading results. The sort of system you would introduce if you really weren't interested in accuracy and really didn't want to know the accurate figures.

[rollover]

Brexit would push rates up to 3.5% in 18 months

The Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates to as high as 3.5% within 18 months in the event of a Brexit, the newest rate-setter has warned.

[interestrateripoff]

Brexit would push rates up to 3.5% in 18 months

The Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates to as high as 3.5% within 18 months in the event of a Brexit, the newest rate-setter has warned.

Imagine the pain that would cause and how it would restrict borrowing. Thus it wouldn't happen.

[Bruce Banner]

Brexit would push rates up to 3.5% in 18 months

The Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates to as high as 3.5% within 18 months in the event of a Brexit, the newest rate-setter has warned.

As high as 3.5%, well I suppose it's a start.

[Fully Detached]

I firmly believe that when your government are so desperate for you to do something, you should question their motives, as your best interests are probably not among them. When the government and the IMF are so desperate for you to do something, you should seriously consider doing the exact opposite.

[billybong]

^

Interest rates have been at 0.5% since March 2009.

Mr Saunders made the comments in a private conversation with Jim Leaviss, one of the City’s most prominent fund managers.

Mr Leaviss said: “If the decision goes in favour of Leave, I would have thought that emergency rate cuts would follow. The market is already pricing in a fair chance of cut.

“But talking to us shortly before his move to the MPC was announced, Michael Saunders said that if Brexit was voted for, inflation could go to 4pc and rates of 3.5pc could be needed by the end of 2017.

“It’s because the pound would collapse and this would impact on inflation.”

So rates will go down or up or maybe stay as they are. It's unlikely the base rate would go up to 3.5% unless the US rates increased significantly - even if it would be a good thing to increase them to "normal" levels.

At any rate how much can you trust the word of someone who allows a "private" conversation to be broadcast to everyone around the world on the internet.

A rise in interest rates would see rates on mortgages rise. But Mr Leaviss questioned if borrowers would be able to afford it: “I’m sceptical. Could the UK economy cope if interest rates were seven times higher?”

They've never been bothered about that in the past - devil take the hindmost has been their policy. What's the sudden inflation concern just because of Brexit - before Brexit became a possibility they've been saying virtually every day they need inflation for a healthy economy indeed they've been pumping trillions of "stimulus" supposedly to get inflation (healthy economy/"stimulus" aka lining their own pockets).

Edited May 13, 2016 by billybong

[zugzwang]

Brexit would push rates up to 3.5% in 18 months

The Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates to as high as 3.5% within 18 months in the event of a Brexit, the newest rate-setter has warned.

i.e. restore them to where they ought to be in a healthy, functioning economy with annual consumer inflation of around 2%.

[Errol]

Brexit would push rates up to 3.5% in 18 months

The Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates to as high as 3.5% within 18 months in the event of a Brexit, the newest rate-setter has warned.

But this is good, surely? Why warn people?

[R K]

Imagine the pain that would cause and how it would restrict borrowing. Thus it wouldn't happen.

-9.5% hit to gdp coupled with a 3.5% rate hike?

Yeah, that makes complete sense. ££ has "crashed" from 1.75 to 1.45 and rates have gone absolutely nowhere. ££ crashed from 2.1 to 1.35 durin the crash & rates were slashed from 5.5 to 0.5 (for a similar scale comparison)

These people have completely lost their marbles. Its becoming so ridiculous now as to be quite amusing.

[Errol]

I'm surprised they aren't leading with stories of Putin's secret army waiting for a Brexit vote to take over the UK and then start WWIII

Or something.

[Bruce Banner]

I firmly believe that when your government are so desperate for you to do something, you should question their motives, as your best interests are probably not among them. When the government and the IMF are so desperate for you to do something, you should seriously consider doing the exact opposite.

Yes, my feelings precisely.

[dances with sheeple]

I sort of know now how the Scot nats felt...better to be poor than controlled and immigration is the key for me. So will be voting out.

Of course with the oil price as it is now and a Scottish populace that relies on welfare and public sector the effects would have been beyond catalcysmic for them...they would be on the breadline already and totally bankrupt beyond Greece.. For the Uk as a whole, we will probably get a house price crash, a collapse in GDP, but what the hell.

At the end of the day it is not the plebs that will be bricking it but the politicians with their BTL Blair style family trusts propped up by unlimited immigration. What a c%%t Blair was.

The problem with that is, as pointed out on QT from Aberdeen last night, Aberdeen and North east Scotland has been a "Cash Cow" for successive UK governments for decades. True, with oil the way it is those days are over, and Jim Sillars pointed out that in 1977 he stood up in Aberdeen and said that 50p of every barrel sold should go to a "Future Wealth Fund" for the area, and got laughed out of town. Ah well, chickens coming home now etc. Doesn`t change the fact that Scotland has more than paid it`s way for years though?

[long time lurking]

[crashmonitor]

The problem with that is, as pointed out on QT from Aberdeen last night, Aberdeen and North east Scotland has been a "Cash Cow" for successive UK governments for decades. True, with oil the way it is those days are over, and Jim Sillars pointed out that in 1977 he stood up in Aberdeen and said that 50p of every barrel sold should go to a "Future Wealth Fund" for the area, and got laughed out of town. Ah well, chickens coming home now etc. Doesn`t change the fact that Scotland has more than paid it`s way for years though?

Totally agree, but the last ship sailed in the last century. Trying to do it alone now would be like tryimng to swim the Atlantic..suicide.

Furthermore oil has probably crowded out a diversified viable economy. Instead England has paid hush money for the benefit of the oil...the Barnet formula. So the Scots got lazy like the Saudis and Russians..relied on public sector employment and welfare with the extra money. The curse of oil and resources.

It would have worked for them in the 1970s for sure, Independence that is.

Edited May 13, 2016 by crashmonitor

[billybong]

^ Brexit video.

A lot of very revealing, interesting and relevant stuff in the Brexit video - being mainly about trade, bureaucracy and lack of eu democracy. Some comments about the impact and implications of the UK's fraudulent banking system, the massive debt, the distribution of wealth and the mega crazy house prices with reference to being IN/OUT the eu would have been interesting as well. There was no specific comment on the effects of mass immigration either.

Some good comments on sovereignty (and who is in control) and being bought off by eu trinkets such as cheaper mobile phone rates etc. In that regard maybe those leading the Brexit campaign should say how they will reinforce democracy and reduce bureaucracy in the UK in the event of Brexit as that's all far from perfect in the UK as well.

Edited May 13, 2016 by billybong