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olde guto

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About olde guto

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  1. Sheesh 🙄 Since 2008 the best part of 1.5million houses have been built in England (so easily 1.5m if not more for the entire UK). Assuming 2 people per house that's housing for at least 3 million people, add 1 child per house (lower than the average 1.8 or so children per family) that's housing for 4.5 million people (more realistic I suspect). No idea if this figure includes new HMOs (where immigrants are more likely to live), bedsit / flat conversions or the BTR student flats springing up over the UK. Since 2008 the population of the UK is estimated to have gone from 61.57m to 65.81m an increase of 4.24 million. House building has pretty much kept pace with population growth which strongly suggests that the main cause of high house prices isn't supply and isn't population growth. Stop lax lending, stop government meddling and increase interest rates and prices can and will crash
  2. Has this article really gone unnoticed (although I'm sure people here know the main message)??? https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/renting-housing-letting-ban_uk_5ac6542fe4b07a3485e21516 Government figures show the number of people living in private rented housing are on course to as good as match those with a mortgage by the 2022 General Election. It's thought that a surge in the number of 35-44-year-old renting could put the Tories out of power - the sort of age at which people have families and a demographic that does actually vote. Shelter are saying "In recent years the number of families renting privately has soared, meaning political parties can no longer afford to be tone deaf to the needs of renters and listen only to homeowners." Tory power for nearly 40 years has been predicated on the idea of a "home owning democracy". If people feel they have nothing to lose (e.g. a house they 'own') they will vote for the likes of Corbyn.
  3. First things first, international and intranational migration does play a part in the housing issue, but it isn’t the cause. OK, I dunno if living outside the UK has given me a different perspective on the mendacity of the British elite, but seeing this thread makes me think of a lot of things about how they are using some "classic" techniques... Seriously, please don’t become “useful idiots”! As I understand it is a term Lenin came up with for American communists who he held in utter contempt but saw them as useful for spreading communist propaganda to other countries. Please remember who The Spectator represents – the British elite – and think about how they might actually view you! Deflection is a classic tool of the propagandist; articles like this are designed to deflect attention from the people that caused the problem! Deflect away from the (in 2014) 5.2m British people who own multiple homes, of which 3.4m people have properties that they leave empty as an investment or use as holiday homes! At best that’s around 1.7m properties and at worst over 3.4m properties. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/18/one-ten-british-adults-now-second-home-owner/ Deflect away front BTL LLs/rentiers or as some might call them the “enterprising capitalists” who amongst other things have priced out FTBs. Deflect away from the Tory government that introduced help to sell (sorry HTB) which reversed the house price correction. Deflect away from the Banks whose lending policies caused massive HPI and even now seem to loosening lending to keep inflating the bubble. Deflect away from the Bank of England and Mark Carnage who have kept IRs too low for too long. Deflect away from house builders and other companies that build-up massive land banks, sit on the land waiting for prices to inflate before building. Deflect away from the 1980’s Tory policy of not using RTB money to build new social housing. Finally something to think about, to quote US president Lyndon B. Johnson "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best coloured man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you." Is Joe Public UK being played by The Spectator and the British elite? tl;dr don't let yourselves be distracted from the real root causes of the UK housing crisis - banks, politicians and rentiers!
  4. Of course she can't, she is facing a perfect storm, as well as all the other things younger voters tend to be anti-brexit. Labour have the luxury of being able to suggest things like SM and CU membership in response to the mess the government makes of the negotiations. Also being historically anti-EU Corbyn might even stand a chance of not alienating anti-EU Labour voters. Labour almost just have to sit back and let the Tories muck everything up.
  5. olde guto

    Need for the tiniest violin ever

    This is classic DM, omit key facts and spin the story to generate outrage, especially amongst their HPI-mad / BTL readership.
  6. This is the absolute truth, I partially regret the decision I made in 2010. However, if it wasn't for the Tory HPI bubble I might have stayed in the UK and that I don't regret at all. There are a few Tory sympathisers who won't like admitting that they are responsible for HPI II and would love to pin the whole blame on Labour. The average UK house price is now over ÂŁ220k, in Jan 2013 prior to HTB it was ÂŁ167k, a 30% increase in 4 years. Not as bad as Blair/Brown, but nearly all generated by state intervention/manipulation.
  7. Coming back to the UK I see two depressing things too many people with their heads stuck in the sand about two issues HPI and the utter omnishambles that is Brexit (oh the irony of two of the biggest pro-HPI "news"papers also being the most pro-brexit). Ireland has got to the stage where people are frankly exasperated with the UK and how it isn't handling Brexit (and not just the taoiseach). https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-lack-of-co-ordination-on-brexit-beggars-belief-1.3171292 As for Ireland leaving the EU I'll quote Bertie Ahearn "we're mad, but we're not that mad" http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/bertie-ahern-says-there-is-no-possibility-of-ireland-leaving-the-eu-were-mad-but-were-not-that-mad-35976398.html Worth considering that 2019 (Brexit year) will be the 100th anniversary of the start of the war of independence against Britain, 2022 (just after brexit + 3yrs transition) will be the 100th Anniversary of the Irish Free State. Believe me, there are some who would love for to see the last stage of independence from Britain around this time - a united Ireland, free of British rule. They'll probably utter the phrase "imeacht gan teacht ort" as well.
  8. Just heard from a friend that Tesco are making 1100 redundant at a call centre in Cardiff. Pretty big news in Cardiff and Wales, not hitting the UK headlines though.
  9. Except that they are against a hard border with the Republic, Arlene Foster has also spoken out against a hard brexit. Funnily enough the only party that has expressed any interest in a hard border are some people in Sinn Fein who think it could help speed-up reunification. As well as dealing with the DUP May and who ever might replace her might need to look out for the "bastards" just like Major did, except this time they'll be europhiles.
  10. Brexit means brexit but doesn't stop brentry the very next day. Just because I've left the golf club doesn't mean I can't rejoin the next day "yes darling, I know I agreed to leave the golf club and I have done, but you never said anything about me not rejoining". Even better I could arrange a transitional deal, where I'm no longer a member but can still go there and play golf, for nominal fee, whilst 100% not being a member "yes darling, I know I agreed to leave the golf club and I have done, but you never said anything about me not going there for a round of golf and a visit to the 19th hole"
  11. QFT. Living in the Republic I can say I've not met any Irish people who would rejoin the UK. It has also given me a perspective on how rose-tinted the British view of the Empire can be at times and how disconnected it is from the perspective of those living in former colonies.
  12. olde guto

    How will the Crash stop this time

    They will do whatever is necessary to prevent a hpc before a 2020 general election. The DM and DE won't tolerate a hpc, now that they have brexit in the bag woe betide the government if they touch their sacred cows of hpi, btl, and nhs (too many elderly readers). It could well be some form of debt forgiveness disguised as some sort of misselling compo scheme, IO mortgages for example. The reintroduction of MIRAS to help "hardworking home owners". Then there is the potential for a "novel public private partnership" to provide social houses, in other words a shared ownership scheme where the government jointly owns a 25 or 50% share of the house. One that can be rolled over when going up the "ladder" perhaps. The stake might even be used to pay for care when you're old if you don't buy the government stake. Two birds with one stone? Unless something radical has changed in the UK since I left (seen little evidence) it's very much business as usual with non consequential tinkering around the edges. The JAMs (where did they disappear to) being promised jam tomorrow in a victoria sandwich they can have and eat.
  13. Have a look at the DM click bait story today about households not being able to live off ÂŁ50k pa. Middle class status anxiety at its worst.
  14. Capitalism? He means materialism and rentierism (with a nice bit of stateism thrown in for good measure) surely? We're about as capitalist as the Soviet Union was really communist. Strip out house prices and consider debt and let us see how much capital people really have.
  15. I suspect that we'll find out. The autumn statement will reveal a lot.
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