Sour Mash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Again I am not at all convinced that money printing did/does keep things ticking. Banking yes. Rest of economy? Seriously doubt it. It keeps the plates spinning for the time being - if the government hadn't monetised about 1/3 of the national debt, spent it into the economy and repressed interest rates to near zero in the process do you think the ride would have been as nice (relatively speaking) in the wake of the 2007/8 crash? Now of course it won't work in the longer term, it'll make things worse, but what politician (or average pleb) thinks in the longer term? It's all about kicking the can down the line. In the meantime they have no choice but to continue with those policies because if they should stop, the whole dodgy edifice would come crashing down very shortly afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
durhamborn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow.. 1.40 vs $ Iv just paid for a container and got $1.399 ,lucky id paid for half of it already as a deposit at $1.53.Put the cost up of the goods by 8% (shipping priced in $ as well).In 30 days. We need higher interest rates soon, but cant have them due to houses/mortgages.A lot of my competition carry a lot of fixed costs/debt and should go under.However they can borrow so cheaply and survive a while longer.The zombie economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Iv just paid for a container and got $1.399 ,lucky id paid for half of it already as a deposit at $1.53.Put the cost up of the goods by 8% (shipping priced in $ as well).In 30 days. We need higher interest rates soon, but cant have them due to houses/mortgages.A lot of my competition carry a lot of fixed costs/debt and should go under.However they can borrow so cheaply and survive a while longer.The zombie economy. I would guess that borrowing to buy houses is probably one of the largest sources of private credit creation in the UK economy. Higher interest rates and lower sales prices (hence less credit borrowed into existence) would pose a serious threat to the wider consumer economy. Not to mention the effect on the balance sheets of the banks as their assets plummet in value and lenders default. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AC44 Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 What you are describing is a correction. It a necessary part of the market. RIght now resources are being wasted by inefficient zombie companies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would guess that borrowing to buy houses is probably one of the largest sources of private credit creation in the UK economy. You're not wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ****** me that graph really does say it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 £ could still recapture support v $. On verra by weekend probably. Tum tee tum tee tum... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'm shocked all those shouting the £ was crashing v $ are now silent. Shocked I tell ya. Actually it was hope and the support was quite clear. 1.48 seems likely, perhaps 1.50s. But £ IS toast. Just not immediately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brunobald Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 What do you guys think about the pound to Euro. I have a 120,000 payment to make in euros. I bought £50,000 at 1.35 euros. I now need to buy the remainder. Was gutting to see the pound dive so fast against the Euro. Sentiment may be turning but for how long, I hope we have a bit of a bull run and I can buy again at 1.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Don't know why gutted. Some on here showing why Euro strengtgening v £ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Reasonable to expect pullback of Euro v £ after such a run. But trend is Euro up v £ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Forget 1.35. It has NOTHING to do with what you do next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 (edited) What do you guys think about the pound to Euro. I have a 120,000 payment to make in euros. I bought £50,000 at 1.35 euros. I now need to buy the remainder. Was gutting to see the pound dive so fast against the Euro. Sentiment may be turning but for how long, I hope we have a bit of a bull run and I can buy again at 1.35 I'm only looking to buy the Euro for traveling and wish I'd grabbed some at 1.42 (ain't hindsight great). Depends if Draghi announces something new before March or the expectations build compared to Carney's chin wagging guidance then the Euro could fall a little. If/when and by how much is a gamble. This news might have caused the move from 1.30 to 1.32 just recently (apparently). Mario Draghi hints at further ECB stimulus moves 21 January 2016 European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has said the bank will "review and possibly reconsider" monetary policy at its next meeting in March. Edited January 23, 2016 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brunobald Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The recent surge back was pretty strong. It was the recent ecb comments regarding no new QE measures that sent the euro up. So with talk of more qe on the way it should hopefully make a bit of a come back. Personally I think the Euro is always going to be highly volitile at the moment. So many possible bankrupt countries looking for bail outs. It's saving grace is its relatively new reserve currency status. If oil goes up again, investors may come out of euros and ride the wave up. Oil could be a good investment soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgul Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 So - is it going to be $1.60 (HSBC) or $1.27 (Deutsche) by the end of the year - place your bets... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-23/hsbc-and-deutsche-bank-are-33-cents-apart-on-pound-s-16-outlook-ijqrnx10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The recent surge back was pretty strong. It was the recent ecb comments regarding no new QE measures that sent the euro up. So with talk of more qe on the way it should hopefully make a bit of a come back. Personally I think the Euro is always going to be highly volitile at the moment. So many possible bankrupt countries looking for bail outs. It's saving grace is its relatively new reserve currency status. If oil goes up again, investors may come out of euros and ride the wave up. Oil could be a good investment soon. Not sure. On aggregate, the EU is not too bad. The countries doing bad are small and insignificant. The UK looks terrible no matter which way you look or measure, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
campervanman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 If UK = Brexit what then for GBP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluteroop Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 If UK = Brexit what then for GBP?my first thought is a long term move towards parity with the dollar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 my first thought is a long term move towards parity with the dollar Possible longer term move towards a deeply ironic adoption of the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 If UK = Brexit what then for GBP? Same as Remain. Toast. Eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The pound had shot up to £1.46 to the $ in the last few days, what is the piece of good news that I missed? Or was the pound "over sold"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crouch Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The pound had shot up to £1.46 to the $ in the last few days, what is the piece of good news that I missed? Or was the pound "over sold"? The $ has taken a hit; nothing to do with the£. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Isn't Draghi set to announce more QE? Looks as if it is creeping up again versus the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pound is down to 167 to the Japanese Yen......about the same as it was when they started negative interest rate. What `s going on ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Too funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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