Giordano Bruno Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 1.5%mom * 12 months = 18% yoy inflation. For this to be down to lack of houses the population would have had to increase about 18% over the period. What's the over 18's population increase between 2009 and 2014? Not much I would have thought. That is not how the mathematics is done, at least not correctly. Sigh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 HMRC has today released residential property transaction numbers for April 2014. Seasonally adjusted transactions dropped slightly vs March, which itself was lower than Feb. It's too early to say whether this marks the beginning of a significant downturn in residential sales, but since we've yet to see the full effect of the new MMR rules on mortgage origination it would appear that the market will have some difficulty returning to the recent peak of 110K transactions in February. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 HMRC has today released residential property transaction numbers for April 2014. Seasonally adjusted transactions dropped slightly vs March, which itself was lower than Feb. It's too early to say whether this marks the beginning of a significant downturn in residential sales, but since we've yet to see the full effect of the new MMR rules on mortgage origination it would appear that the market will have some difficulty returning to the recent peak of 110K transactions in February. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above "It's too early to say whether this marks the beginning of a significant downturn " have you seen the ****ing insane asking prices popping up on Rightmove. I'll say to was a definite that sales are about to drop off a cliff without some more government support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 1.5%mom * 12 months = 18% yoy inflation. For this to be down to lack of houses the population would have had to increase about 18% over the period. What's the over 18's population increase between 2009 and 2014? Not much I would have thought. You didn't compound it which makes it 19.56% over a year. Round that up to 20%. Isn't +20% a definition of a bubble? The governbankment can no longer deny a bubble exists. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicken Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 You didn't compound it which makes it 19.56% over a year. Round that up to 20%. Isn't +20% a definition of a bubble? The governbankment can no longer deny a bubble exists. Sure they can. Transaction levels are the only evidence of a bubble according to some of the talking heads, and 2007 is the correct time to compare to as 'normal'. Never mind the simple fact that if the average price was currently a billion transaction levels would be on the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 (edited) You didn't compound it which makes it 19.56% over a year. Round that up to 20%. Isn't +20% a definition of a bubble? The governbankment can no longer deny a bubble exists. They dont deny it exists...they refuse to do anything about it....behind closed doors that is, I'd imagine. Our glorious leaders are not stupid....they know what's going on. The question we should all be asking is, why are they doing and why are we letting them !!! Edited May 21, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admann Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 (edited) It gets a bit more complicated than that but a good simple way of looking at it. Where populations rise property prices tend to go up proportionally but a 1% increase in population could mean a 12% rise in values. There are many factors and around 6 years ago (could be more) I started a thread on this very subject. Indeed it depends on the elasticity of demand. Imagine a game of musical chairs with 98 chairs and 100 people, and lets say one of the last two standing can buy a seat from one of the sitting. Whats the price of that chair. Probably not that much. Now what if the last one standing gets shot....The point being 100 chairs and 100 people and a chair costs nothing even with the threat of being shot if you didn't have one. 98 chairs and 100 people with a steep enough demand curve, prices go stratospheric Edited May 21, 2014 by admann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Indeed it depends on the elasticity of demand. Imagine a game of musical chairs with 98 chairs and 100 people, and lets say one of the last two standing can buy a seat from one of the sitting. Whats the price of that chair. Probably not that much. Now what if the last one standing gets shot.... The point being 100 chairs and 100 people and a chair costs nothing even with the threat of being shot if you didn't have one. 98 chairs and 100 people with a steep enough demand curve, prices go stratospheric Betty swollocks.Availability of credit puts the price stratospheric. Otherwise the limit is governed by the number of turnips the players have produced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admann Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Betty swollocks. Availability of credit puts the price stratospheric. Otherwise the limit is governed by the number of turnips the players have produced. Indeed, it is a given that the gun toting pychopathic games master of bankeristic tendencies may extend you a line of credit to buy the chair thus bidding up the price further, and from then you will be his gimp, and well he may extend you more credit than you could reasonably command as a gimp and so that he owns your a$$, but that would have rather complicated my analogy. I am not sure I like the inclusion of turnips in the game however......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 They dont deny it exists...they refuse to do anything about it....behind closed doors that is, I'd imagine. Our glorious leaders are not stupid....they know what's going on. The question we should all be asking is, why are they doing and why are we letting them !! They're not stupid, granted, but that doesn't mean to say they know what's going on. Look at the succession of false hockey stick recoveries on Chote's charts and the endless talking up of non-existent green shoots. The BoE's fan forecasts are still no better than wild guesses; the UK economy is still smaller than it was in 2008 despite the unprecedented orgy of borrowing, spending and printing. And behind it all a tautologous economic model from which money, debt and time have all been absurdly abstracted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 It gets a bit more complicated than that but a good simple way of looking at it. Where populations rise property prices tend to go up proportionally but a 1% increase in population could mean a 12% rise in values. There are many factors and around 6 years ago (could be more) I started a thread on this very subject. Generally countries or areas where there are increases in poulation, without corresponding increases in house building, prices go up. Countries or areas where populations are falling prices go down. There is normally a delayed reaction to this growth and HPI England, especially SE and London, rapid population growth so rapid price rises albeit delayed. Japan with a very slow modest decline in population over the past 15 years so slow modest falls in prices. Other countries such as Germany with very low population growths have very small modest price rises. There has been a lot of research about this but it can not be taken in isolation but it is one of the biggest factors to be considered and can not be ignored. House prices are determined at the margin. What buyers pay sellers for houses in any one month. What buyers will and can pay. I look forward to seeing your population growth theory meet a big HPC. And there will be no forgiveness for the bomads/investors/buyers who've been paying silly high prices in recent years, on such a flawed silly theory. Your population growth theory has to come with a flow of people willing and able to pay higher prices. Otherwise population growth can also cause instability to even drag down values vs other locations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 (edited) Your population growth theory has to come with a flow of people willing and able to pay higher prices. Yes - there is a vast difference between those who desire to buy property and those who are capable of doing so (ie, 'proceedable demand'). Lots of people desire to buy sports cars, few of them are actually in a position to do so. In the case of the housing market, TPTB are working overtime to move more from the vast desire that's out there into the far smaller pool of proceedable buyers which exists at these prices. Edited May 22, 2014 by rantnrave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 (edited) HMRC has today released residential property transaction numbers for April 2014. Seasonally adjusted transactions dropped slightly vs March, which itself was lower than Feb. It's too early to say whether this marks the beginning of a significant downturn in residential sales, but since we've yet to see the full effect of the new MMR rules on mortgage origination it would appear that the market will have some difficulty returning to the recent peak of 110K transactions in February. Thanks. a similiar dip (early days) appears in the boe month purchase mortgage seasonally adjusted approvals. Why are SA volumes slowing into peak market period ? I can only think it is a combination of sellers raising prices reducing supply and pre MMR implementation. Edited May 22, 2014 by Ash4781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Does looks uncannily like the top two peaks on the classic bubble graph - we're smack at the top of 'return to normal' - guess it will be a couple of years before we know for sure ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 TPTB are working overtime to move more from the vast desire that's out there into the far smaller pool of proceedable buyers which exists at these prices. At some point the estate agents will surely start to work together better to make this happen - in their efforts to win business for their firm they are reducing overall turnover by pricing above a sustainable level of transactions - so they make less net. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickincash Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 The real Land Registry index for March 2015 is out today at 0930. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver surfer Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Indeed it depends on the elasticity of demand. Imagine a game of musical chairs with 98 chairs and 100 people, and lets say one of the last two standing can buy a seat from one of the sitting. Whats the price of that chair. Probably not that much. Now what if the last one standing gets shot.... The point being 100 chairs and 100 people and a chair costs nothing even with the threat of being shot if you didn't have one. 98 chairs and 100 people with a steep enough demand curve, prices go stratospheric It's not the first time the "musical chairs" analogy has been used on HPC, and rightly so as it captures many aspects of the madness of the UK property market. In a normally functioning economy if demand and prices for chairs started to grow then chair factories would increase production. But thanks to UK planning restrictions and NIMBY pressure groups there is effectively a "no new chair law" in this country. Consequently any real increase in people's wealth just gets taken up with buying a chair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 It's not the first time the "musical chairs" analogy has been used on HPC, and rightly so as it captures many aspects of the madness of the UK property market. In a normally functioning economy if demand and prices for chairs started to grow then chair factories would increase production. But thanks to UK planning restrictions and NIMBY pressure groups there is effectively a "no new chair law" in this country. Consequently any real increase in people's wealth just gets taken up with buying a chair. Its still a wrong analogy.The people who already have a chair would just buy all the new chairs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 I actually am pleased with this. Who can claim there is no bubble now? That 'nice' Mr Cameron? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Bought Dec 2010 for £610,000. Sold April 2014 for £1,250,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Bought Dec 2010 for £610,000. Sold April 2014 for £1,250,000. Jesus, my eyes water at the 2010 price, let alone the 2014 one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Priory Gardens, N6 5QU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 (edited) Jesus, my eyes water at the 2010 price, let alone the 2014 one! OMG you dont realise how mad London prices are, no wonder they are trying to curb them. Edited May 30, 2014 by awaytogo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 The real Land Registry index for March 2015 is out today at 0930. Brilliant now we will know what house prices will be in a years time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Seem to be having trouble linking Land Registry today.....just had a play on their price calculator....City of Nottingham August 2007 - March 2014 MINUS 16%........just basking in this boom baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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