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rantnrave

Land Reg April Figure - Up 1.5% Mom

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I actually am pleased with this. Who can claim there is no bubble now?

Carney and Cameron say there is no bubble and they will not take action. They have been saying it loud and clear for months.

Why would Cameron and the rest of the crooks want to take action on property inflation when they all own multiple properties and stand to make a fortune from it?

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1.5%mom * 12 months = 18% yoy inflation.

For this to be down to lack of houses the population would have had to increase about 18% over the period.

What's the over 18's population increase between 2009 and 2014? Not much I would have thought.

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From Sky:

http://news.sky.com/story/1265185/house-prices-up-as-pm-signals-on-help-to-buy

"The ONS said annual house price rises in England are being driven by a 17% year-on-year increase in London, a 6.6% hike in the East and a 6.1% rise in the South East. The average house price in London has reached £459,000."

So no rises anywhere else then.

This baby is popping.

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"However, first-time buyers now face having to pay 10% more than they did a year ago to get a foot on the property ladder, with the average price of a starter home standing at £193,000 in March, according to ONS figures."

Help to Buy - :rolleyes:

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"The average house price in the UK now stands at £252,000, although this is slightly down on the £253,000 peak in February.


The 0.5% drop marks the first time property values have fallen month-on-month in just over a year."


DOWN.

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"The average house price in the UK now stands at £252,000, although this is slightly down on the £253,000 peak in February.

The 0.5% drop marks the first time property values have fallen month-on-month in just over a year."

DOWN.

How can prices be up 1.5% and drop 0.5%?

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How can prices be up 1.5% and drop 0.5%?

ONS and Land registry...two different indexes ? Or is it seasonally adjusted ?

Either way, something is afoot, there is a lot of noise. A lot of mutterings and a lot of worried looking politicians.

I personally think the banks have got all those lovely 50% deposits in now and are running quickly out of "greatest fools"

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Here's what happens when you have a big bubble then a bust. This is from a BBCNI article

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-27486980

N.I. Is a good example of what is about to happen in london. NI was a purely speculative market and when it went pop, it went POP.

The people "leading" us are a bunch of idiots.

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1.5%mom * 12 months = 18% yoy inflation.

For this to be down to lack of houses the population would have had to increase about 18% over the period.

What's the over 18's population increase between 2009 and 2014? Not much I would have thought.

Don't think it works like that.

If there were 100 houses and only 99 people wanted to buy sellers would compete against each other and prices would fall.

If there were 99 houses and 100 people wanted to buy buyers would compete against each other driving up prices. House prices really just depends upon the ability of people to fund their purchase.

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House prices really just depends upon the ability of people to fund their purchase.

That's not what Mark Carney said on Sunday - he clearly announced that it's a shortage of houses and that BOE can' build houses.

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The madness that many of us are seeing OUT OF THE SOUTH EAST.

You can but hope its a pre-MMR hurrah.

Edited by 7 Year Itch

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That's not what Mark Carney said on Sunday - he clearly announced that it's a shortage of houses and that BOE can' build houses.

They can print money though and devalue our earnings and savings.

:wacko:

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House prices are sill very affordable though.

If you earn £25,000 and your wife earns £20,000 your parents earn another £45,000 and your wife's parents earn another £45,000. Buying a first home shouldn't be a problem.

If you don't like high house prices blame the most reckless bank of them all. the bank of mum and dad.

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Surely this isn't the Land Registry its the ONS index?

Land Registry Twitter feed updated yesterday. The media usually only covers the full report.

https://twitter.com/LandRegGov/status/468376788864106496

Our April #HPI shows a monthly change of 1.5%. Average #house price in England and Wales now £172,069. Full HPI out 9.30am on 30 May

Edited by rantnrave

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ONS and Land registry...two different indexes ? Or is it seasonally adjusted ?

Either way, something is afoot, there is a lot of noise. A lot of mutterings and a lot of worried looking politicians.

I personally think the banks have got all those lovely 50% deposits in now and are running quickly out of "greatest fools"

banks dont collect deposits..the word is misleading...its a cash payment to the vendor, not a deposit.

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I actually am pleased with this. Who can claim there is no bubble now?

It doesn't matter whether or not it is accepted that there is a bubble: No-one is going to be the one to take the punchbowl away just as the party is getting started.

Say hello to the new 'boom'. It will almost certainly not endure as long as the previous ca. 2000-2007 one but it will almost certainly fire on all cylinders thanks to severely repressed interest rates and government sponsored asset price boosting schemes.

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House prices are sill very affordable though.

If you earn £25,000 and your wife earns £20,000 your parents earn another £45,000 and your wife's parents earn another £45,000. Buying a first home shouldn't be a problem.

If you don't like high house prices blame the most reckless bank of them all. the bank of mum and dad.

Bilking the BoMaD is an inevitable result of ever-rising prices.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Mum and Dad en-masse need to fall back on what should have been a nest-egg of accumulated savings to meet their living costs.

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Don't think it works like that.

If there were 100 houses and only 99 people wanted to buy sellers would compete against each other and prices would fall.

If there were 99 houses and 100 people wanted to buy buyers would compete against each other driving up prices. House prices really just depends upon the ability of people to fund their purchase.

It gets a bit more complicated than that but a good simple way of looking at it.

Where populations rise property prices tend to go up proportionally but a 1% increase in population could mean a 12% rise in values.

There are many factors and around 6 years ago (could be more) I started a thread on this very subject.

Generally countries or areas where there are increases in poulation, without corresponding increases in house building, prices go up. Countries or areas where populations are falling prices go down. There is normally a delayed reaction to this growth and HPI

England, especially SE and London, rapid population growth so rapid price rises albeit delayed.

Japan with a very slow modest decline in population over the past 15 years so slow modest falls in prices.

Other countries such as Germany with very low population growths have very small modest price rises.

There has been a lot of research about this but it can not be taken in isolation but it is one of the biggest factors to be considered and can not be ignored.

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snip

There has been a lot of research about this but it can not be taken in isolation but it is one of the biggest factors to be considered and can not be ignored.

cant be that important...otherwise there would have been no need for help to buy, funding for lending etc etc...clearly, lending is the biggest driver by far, once you are into a speculative frenzy aided by tax breaks for a type of borrower who wants to lend his house to a renter, then S+D take a back seat, indeed, they are in the trailer.

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House prices are sill very affordable though.

If you earn £25,000 and your wife earns £20,000 your parents earn another £45,000 and your wife's parents earn another £45,000. Buying a first home shouldn't be a problem.

If you don't like high house prices blame the most reckless bank of them all. the bank of mum and dad.

:lol:

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It gets a bit more complicated than that but a good simple way of looking at it.

Where populations rise property prices tend to go up proportionally but a 1% increase in population could mean a 12% rise in values.

There are many factors and around 6 years ago (could be more) I started a thread on this very subject.

Generally countries or areas where there are increases in poulation, without corresponding increases in house building, prices go up. Countries or areas where populations are falling prices go down. There is normally a delayed reaction to this growth and HPI

England, especially SE and London, rapid population growth so rapid price rises albeit delayed.

Japan with a very slow modest decline in population over the past 15 years so slow modest falls in prices.

Other countries such as Germany with very low population growths have very small modest price rises.

There has been a lot of research about this but it can not be taken in isolation but it is one of the biggest factors to be considered and can not be ignored.

I thought population went up for twenty years in Japan after their 1989 crash

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan

This paper seems to be arguing the inverse dependency ratio is key

http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2012/data/ko120821a1.pdf

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