crashmonitor Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 (edited) We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be..... GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use) HPI +7.0% Unemployment 5.5% Gold $1000 Pound/Dollar $1.70 CPI +2.5% FTSE 100 7500 Base Rate 1.0% The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF ( gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU. edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated. Edited December 28, 2013 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be..... GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use) HPI +7.0% Unemployment 5.5% Gold $1000 Pound/Dollar $1.70 CPI +2.5% FTSE 100 7500 Base Rate 1.0% The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF (blazen gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU. edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=186005&st=0&p=909217858&hl=2013&fromsearch=1entry909217858 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 (edited) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=186005&st=0&p=909217858&hl=2013&fromsearch=1entry909217858 Thanks very much winkie, I had no luck with the search engine. If I muck up this year at least I can refer back to a successful 2012 forecast....especially gold at $1300 and the FTSE at 7000. But undercooking HPI slightly at 1% (if you go for land registry, or on Haliwide i was wide of the mark) ) and over estimating inflation by 0.5% or so at 3.0%. All four in the ball park though. Edited December 28, 2013 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be..... GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use) HPI +7.0% Unemployment 5.5% Gold $1000 Pound/Dollar $1.70 CPI +2.5% FTSE 100 7500 Base Rate 1.0% The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF ( gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU. edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated. Your predictions for wage growth muse be fairly high considering your prediction for HPI and GDP, or are you predicting lower debt servicing costs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honkydonkey Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Lbma and comex default, gold beginning new bull run Serious signs of dollar weakness and loss of control occurring Hpi 15% in S.E before crash Dow up 30% before crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 (edited) Your predictions for wage growth muse be fairly high considering your prediction for HPI and GDP, or are you predicting lower debt servicing costs? Well as 2014 GDP growth is compared against the whole of 2013 as opposed to Q4 2014 on Q4 2013, then there is considerable growth already in the bank and it would take something fairly modest to get over 3%. As for HPI, we are still about 10% below where we were in 2007 in nominal terms. I would expect the growth we have seen in London to now ripple out to the Home Counties and Midlands. A complacent MPC and accommodative interest rates should see HPI well above CPI without any significant wage growth I have largely been correct on house prices now since 2006, and only really caught out last year with an under estimate of +1%. When I first joined this site I forecast HPI would return to nominal peak by 2017. I now see that coming about eighteen months earlier, some time around the election. Edited December 28, 2013 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I guess where you and I differ is that I estimate that the current low interest rates are priced in where you think there is more mileage to go before prices top-out at current rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearwithasorehead Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be..... GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use) HPI +7.0% Unemployment 5.5% Gold $1000 Pound/Dollar $1.70 CPI +2.5% FTSE 100 7500 Base Rate 1.0% The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF ( gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU. edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated. My crystal ball gazing: GDP +3% HPI +5% Unemployment 6% Gold $900 Pound/Dollar $1.50 CPI +3% FTSE 100 8000 Base Rate 0.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yanks have low mortgage starts, massive inventory growth. People will probably start profit taking soon. Touch and go whether we make it thru 2014 unscatched. 2014 or 15. One of them will be the biggie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 No mention of probably the best performing market of 2013 then? Bitcoin and other crypto currencies will continue to be the big, disruptive movers of 2014, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Thanks very much winkie, I had no luck with the search engine. If I muck up this year at least I can refer back to a successful 2012 forecast....especially gold at $1300 and the FTSE at 7000. But undercooking HPI slightly at 1% (if you go for land registry, or on Haliwide i was wide of the mark) ) and over estimating inflation by 0.5% or so at 3.0%. All four in the ball park though. I don't like to make predictions....but if I had a top of head unlikely guess, a flat year, consolidations and protectionism.....lots of blame and vote throwing....Softly, Softly, Catchee Monkey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Bitcoin & all crypto-crap will be relegated to the same bin as napster. Several western economies will have a bond crisis. Houses will flatline in the good bits of London. Britain will have an energy blackout or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Some people will make alot of money, alot of people will make some money, and the rest will be fu cked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okaycuckoo Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Base rate won't budge. Inflation rate to decrease a bit. The rest I agree with, although something truly, stonkingly shocking will happen in the second half of 2014. Come on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traktion Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Bitcoin & all crypto-crap will be relegated to the same bin as napster. Several western economies will have a bond crisis. Houses will flatline in the good bits of London. Britain will have an energy blackout or two. They will evolve into a decentralised, distributed system, much like Bittorrent? Oh, hang on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Chinese shadow banking system will implode initiating a worldwide margin call + stock market crash and flight to the dollar. Base rates will rise out of necessity to inhibit dollar flight thereby compounding the fiscal shock and amplifying the deleveraging momentum. 2014 = 2008 but with the BRICs and emerging markets caught up this time too, the effort of holding up the US + European debt Ponzi finally exceeding their capacity to bear it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Real interest rates will climb and the BofE will start printing again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scrappycocco Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 They will keep printing and house prices will keep going up until the aliens arrive to save use from this mess. I think this year before labour come back, will be the best time to start taking action to protect yourself from a greece style thing. So really nothing will happen this year but next year ed balls will be starting the printing presses, a few new wars and the public sector will eat us alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buyerbeware Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The world economy is so out of kilter nothing can be predicted, apart from that something bad is increasingly more likely to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Bitcoin & all crypto-crap will be relegated to the same bin as napster. Several western economies will have a bond crisis. Houses will flatline in the good bits of London. Britain will have an energy blackout or two. definitely go with the bond crisis bit. the yield chart looks almost as scary as bitcoin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonguest Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I'll make just one, very simple, economic prediction for 2014 - based on 30+ years of data. "My money, overall, will buy less for me at the end of 2014 than it will at the start of 2014" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Eventually all the wheels will come off this economy (when the black swan crash lands), rates will rise and large scale printing will have to occur. Either risk your capital in places where it might loose less than most other places (if your timing is good) and/or load up with a manageable slice of debt, to at least get some benefit from the subsequent inflation event. When and how fast this will happen is still a mystery to me. Stay lucky! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'll make just one, very simple, economic prediction for 2014 - based on 30+ years of data. "My money, overall, will buy less for me at the end of 2014 than it will at the start of 2014" Depends on what you are buying and what your money is - for example: Potatoes are 1/2 the price of last year. Silver will be 16% dearer on 1st January because of VAT being added. Wheat was cheaper this year. Houses were 90% cheaper in Bitcoins during 2013 etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonguest Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 (edited) Depends on what you are buying and what your money is - for example: Potatoes are 1/2 the price of last year. Silver will be 16% dearer on 1st January because of VAT being added. Wheat was cheaper this year. Houses were 90% cheaper in Bitcoins during 2013 etc. Fair enough but.....to be fair I did say 'overall' - and the qualifying point being the money I am paid in (which aint Bitcoin!). Edited December 30, 2013 by anonguest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonguest Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fair enough but.....to be fair I did say 'overall' - and the qualifying point being the money I am paid in (which aint Bitcoin!). Though I will also add that this is one prediction I would love to be wrong! (i.e I'd be delighted IF, overall, my money bought me more rather than less). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.