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2014 Economic Predictions

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We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be.....

GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use)

HPI +7.0%

Unemployment 5.5%

Gold $1000

Pound/Dollar $1.70

CPI +2.5%

FTSE 100 7500

Base Rate 1.0%

The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF ( gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU.

edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated.

Edited by crashmonitor

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We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be.....

GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use)

HPI +7.0%

Unemployment 5.5%

Gold $1000

Pound/Dollar $1.70

CPI +2.5%

FTSE 100 7500

Base Rate 1.0%

The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF (blazen gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU.

edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=186005&st=0&p=909217858&hl=2013&fromsearch=1entry909217858

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Thanks very much winkie, I had no luck with the search engine.

If I muck up this year at least I can refer back to a successful 2012 forecast....especially gold at $1300 and the FTSE at 7000. But undercooking HPI slightly at 1% (if you go for land registry, or on Haliwide i was wide of the mark) ) and over estimating inflation by 0.5% or so at 3.0%. All four in the ball park though.

Edited by crashmonitor

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We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be.....

GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use)

HPI +7.0%

Unemployment 5.5%

Gold $1000

Pound/Dollar $1.70

CPI +2.5%

FTSE 100 7500

Base Rate 1.0%

The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF ( gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU.

edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated.

Your predictions for wage growth muse be fairly high considering your prediction for HPI and GDP, or are you predicting lower debt servicing costs?

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Your predictions for wage growth muse be fairly high considering your prediction for HPI and GDP, or are you predicting lower debt servicing costs?

Well as 2014 GDP growth is compared against the whole of 2013 as opposed to Q4 2014 on Q4 2013, then there is considerable growth already in the bank and it would take something fairly modest to get over 3%. As for HPI, we are still about 10% below where we were in 2007 in nominal terms. I would expect the growth we have seen in London to now ripple out to the Home Counties and Midlands. A complacent MPC and accommodative interest rates should see HPI well above CPI without any significant wage growth

I have largely been correct on house prices now since 2006, and only really caught out last year with an under estimate of +1%. When I first joined this site I forecast HPI would return to nominal peak by 2017. I now see that coming about eighteen months earlier, some time around the election.

Edited by crashmonitor

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We did one earlier on house prices, but not on all the main indicators. My guess for 2014 would be.....

GDP +3.4% (it would be getting on for +2% even if the economy went flat now on the lagging 4 quarter moving average they use)

HPI +7.0%

Unemployment 5.5%

Gold $1000

Pound/Dollar $1.70

CPI +2.5%

FTSE 100 7500

Base Rate 1.0%

The economy has got momentum, an election is 18 months away; the MPC will act too slowly with interest rates as they always do. Meanwhile even China is taking notice of the UK, and Christine Lagarde and the IMF ( gaelic bias) have egg on their faces after backing the wrong horse, EMU.

edit. Can't find last year's economic predictions which is annoying, any link would be appreciated.

My crystal ball gazing:

GDP +3%

HPI +5%

Unemployment 6%

Gold $900

Pound/Dollar $1.50

CPI +3%

FTSE 100 8000

Base Rate 0.75%

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No mention of probably the best performing market of 2013 then? Bitcoin and other crypto currencies will continue to be the big, disruptive movers of 2014, imo.

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Thanks very much winkie, I had no luck with the search engine.

If I muck up this year at least I can refer back to a successful 2012 forecast....especially gold at $1300 and the FTSE at 7000. But undercooking HPI slightly at 1% (if you go for land registry, or on Haliwide i was wide of the mark) ) and over estimating inflation by 0.5% or so at 3.0%. All four in the ball park though.

I don't like to make predictions....but if I had a top of head unlikely guess, a flat year, consolidations and protectionism.....lots of blame and vote throwing....Softly, Softly, Catchee Monkey. ;)

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Bitcoin & all crypto-crap will be relegated to the same bin as napster.

Several western economies will have a bond crisis.

Houses will flatline in the good bits of London.

Britain will have an energy blackout or two.

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Base rate won't budge.

Inflation rate to decrease a bit.

The rest I agree with, although something truly, stonkingly shocking will happen in the second half of 2014. Come on!

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Bitcoin & all crypto-crap will be relegated to the same bin as napster.

Several western economies will have a bond crisis.

Houses will flatline in the good bits of London.

Britain will have an energy blackout or two.

They will evolve into a decentralised, distributed system, much like Bittorrent? Oh, hang on...

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The Chinese shadow banking system will implode initiating a worldwide margin call + stock market crash and flight to the dollar. Base rates will rise out of necessity to inhibit dollar flight thereby compounding the fiscal shock and amplifying the deleveraging momentum.

2014 = 2008 but with the BRICs and emerging markets caught up this time too, the effort of holding up the US + European debt Ponzi finally exceeding their capacity to bear it.

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They will keep printing and house prices will keep going up until the aliens arrive to save use from this mess.

I think this year before labour come back, will be the best time to start taking action to protect yourself from a greece style thing. So really nothing will happen this year but next year ed balls will be starting the printing presses, a few new wars and the public sector will eat us alive.

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Bitcoin & all crypto-crap will be relegated to the same bin as napster.

Several western economies will have a bond crisis.

Houses will flatline in the good bits of London.

Britain will have an energy blackout or two.

definitely go with the bond crisis bit.

the yield chart looks almost as scary as bitcoin

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I'll make just one, very simple, economic prediction for 2014 - based on 30+ years of data.

"My money, overall, will buy less for me at the end of 2014 than it will at the start of 2014"

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Eventually all the wheels will come off this economy (when the black swan crash lands), rates will rise and large scale printing will have to occur.

Either risk your capital in places where it might loose less than most other places (if your timing is good)

and/or load up with a manageable slice of debt, to at least get some benefit from the subsequent inflation event.

When and how fast this will happen is still a mystery to me.

Stay lucky!

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I'll make just one, very simple, economic prediction for 2014 - based on 30+ years of data.

"My money, overall, will buy less for me at the end of 2014 than it will at the start of 2014"

Depends on what you are buying and what your money is - for example:

Potatoes are 1/2 the price of last year.

Silver will be 16% dearer on 1st January because of VAT being added.

Wheat was cheaper this year.

Houses were 90% cheaper in Bitcoins during 2013

etc.

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Depends on what you are buying and what your money is - for example:

Potatoes are 1/2 the price of last year.

Silver will be 16% dearer on 1st January because of VAT being added.

Wheat was cheaper this year.

Houses were 90% cheaper in Bitcoins during 2013

etc.

Fair enough but.....to be fair I did say 'overall' - and the qualifying point being the money I am paid in (which aint Bitcoin!).

Edited by anonguest

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Fair enough but.....to be fair I did say 'overall' - and the qualifying point being the money I am paid in (which aint Bitcoin!).

Though I will also add that this is one prediction I would love to be wrong! (i.e I'd be delighted IF, overall, my money bought me more rather than less).

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