Winter Bounce - Norwich Centric

[DabHand]

Was reading a thread in sub forums about Norwich going insane from spring 2013:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=190328

Compared to now, the market was positively HPC friendly!

I have seen all sorts of kite flying. houses for 250k bought in last 18 months back on the market for 350k - no work done, maybe some paint.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=44116853&sale=47493719&country=england

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44116853.html

Here's an interesting one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41940892.html

Guess they took the carpets up and painted the walls. Job a good 'un, 80k in the bag from the 240k they paid back in 2010. No need to wait for a mug...it's SOLD, l just tried to view it and it only came on the market YESTERDAY. Given the rapidity, this was an 'at or near asking' offer right?

It's winter. There's supposed to be no activity - the perfect time for FTB's who can move fast. Certainly the worst time for sellers who clearly have issues if they are putting their house on the market in December, rather than wait for a cheery spring time market.

But no, firstly l noticed that everything seemed to have gained 50 plus k asking, then l saw a house l had previously made on offer (about 7-8% under) and had been on the market for about 2 years) but the seller wouldn't budge from asking... well its gone, now l am seeing clearly overpriced stuff (compared to the same street in early 2013 - not the HPC 2 x salary metric!) and it's fookin' going.

What. The. Fack.

I have no gone from "l can afford the asking but l want to get it for something a bit more realistic (15-20% under) just need to wait for the right motivated seller" ..to.. "geez, can't even afford the asking, wonder if l can get them to within striking distance... oh... no its sold already."

I am now a renter by default rather than choice. I now have no alternative but to wait for something to **** over, because l don't have the luxury any more. My deposit looks meagre when l work out how much l'd need to borrow. I have no idea who these buyers are, maybe its where all the London 'townsizers'* are going. The only two houses near me that sold in recent memory both went to london refugees with kids who paid asking. Compared to the bedsit it would have got you in London, probably still thought they'd hit the Jackpot.

Is anyone seeing what appears to be Crazy Christmas in their neck of the woods? Have to ask otherwise this post is just me whining!

For info l am in top 10% of earners, wrong side of 35, have a good sized deposit and an imminent child - l ain't buying no shitshack, that is not a ladder, l'm only a few years off peak earning and pay rises are not happening in my sector.

*"Townsizers" yep, that's mine. l'm claiming that.

[The Masked Tulip]

Some EAs are ramping like crazy around me mainly because there is a dearth of stuff coming to market.

I heard last night of 3 bed semis which, 6 months ago, came on in the 220K asking price mark and usually went for 180K to 190K now, well, one of the - IMPO - rampers is going around putting 325K or thereabout asking prices out to sellers. I was told this by an EA manager who summed it up as "barking".

We are not talking about adding 5% or even 10% but adding about 100%!

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

Was reading a thread in sub forums about Norwich going insane from spring 2013:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=190328

Compared to now, the market was positively HPC friendly!

I have seen all sorts of kite flying. houses for 250k bought in last 18 months back on the market for 350k - no work done, maybe some paint.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=44116853&sale=47493719&country=england

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44116853.html

Here's an interesting one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41940892.html

Guess they took the carpets up and painted the walls. Job a good 'un, 80k in the bag from the 240k they paid back in 2010. No need to wait for a mug...it's SOLD, l just tried to view it and it only came on the market YESTERDAY. Given the rapidity, this was an 'at or near asking' offer right?

It's winter. There's supposed to be no activity - the perfect time for FTB's who can move fast. Certainly the worst time for sellers who clearly have issues if they are putting their house on the market in December, rather than wait for a cheery spring time market.

But no, firstly l noticed that everything seemed to have gained 50 plus k asking, then l saw a house l had previously made on offer (about 7-8% under) and had been on the market for about 2 years) but the seller wouldn't budge from asking... well its gone, now l am seeing clearly overpriced stuff (compared to the same street in early 2013 - not the HPC 2 x salary metric!) and it's fookin' going.

What. The. Fack.

I have no gone from "l can afford the asking but l want to get it for something a bit more realistic (15-20% under) just need to wait for the right motivated seller" ..to.. "geez, can't even afford the asking, wonder if l can get them to within striking distance... oh... no its sold already."

I am now a renter by default rather than choice. I now have no alternative but to wait for something to **** over, because l don't have the luxury any more. My deposit looks meagre when l work out how much l'd need to borrow. I have no idea who these buyers are, maybe its where all the London 'townsizers'* are going. The only two houses near me that sold in recent memory both went to london refugees with kids who paid asking. Compared to the bedsit it would have got you in London, probably still thought they'd hit the Jackpot.

Is anyone seeing what appears to be Crazy Christmas in their neck of the woods? Have to ask otherwise this post is just me whining!

For info l am in top 10% of earners, wrong side of 35, have a good sized deposit and an imminent child - l ain't buying no shitshack, that is not a ladder, l'm only a few years off peak earning and pay rises are not happening in my sector.

*"Townsizers" yep, that's mine. l'm claiming that.

Yes, me too.

[Fromage Frais]

+1

I hear you load and clear

I wanted a house on Christchurch road offered 300,000 (wanted to pay 280) on a house 330 they refused and took the house off the market as no interest.

These houses are now selling like hotcakes for 350-395 and some even at 400+

Where are they getting the money I love Norwich but there is not the work here to support all these high priced homes I have been round some offices recently and their is little demand for office space etc.

I can only assume its flight from London.

50-100k added on in under 2 years is not normal.

I also see there is hardly anything for sale in my area though i do notice its not easy shifting the 800k plus houses which has more choice than then 250-500k zone. Surely if the market was "wealth driven" these homes would sell for more/shift also.

Edited December 4, 2013 by Fromage Frais

[Democorruptcy]

For info l am in top 10% of earners, wrong side of 35, have a good sized deposit and an imminent child - l ain't buying no shitshack, that is not a ladder, l'm only a few years off peak earning and pay rises are not happening in my sector.

*"Townsizers" yep, that's mine. l'm claiming that.

These days you need a "The wife and I are both in the top 10% of earners". It's household income now not just main income. People are borrowing higher multiples of combined household income on a joint income mortgage. The handbrake has been taken off lending.

Moreover, its own in-house research suggests that households have become indebted in the past year – such that a fifth of households are now nursing mortgage debt worth five times their incomes

http://www.edmundconway.com/2013/11/todays-bank-of-england-move-might-mean-lower-interest-rates-for-longer/

Congratulations on the imminent child. Try get the wife back into work asap and show your young child how to clean chimneys?

[DabHand]

These days you need a "The wife and I are both in the top 10% of earners". It's household income now not just main income. People are borrowing higher multiples of combined household income on a joint income mortgage. The handbrake has been taken off lending.

Congratulations on the imminent child. Try get the wife back into work asap and show your young child how to clean chimneys?

Thanks!

Your last comment although part(!) jest is clearly unsustainable. Two incomes at high multiples means double the chance of the wheels coming off and no cushion to fall on.

I am happy for my birdster to stay at home. She does a bit of freelance copywriting* anyway so its not all Jeremy Kyle and multi-packs of Cheese Puffs.

*Still building up the client base, so no income l treat as regular/sizeable.

Anyone else seeing what l am seeing in their (non-London) area? Is there a silent invasion of people named Tamsin and Ulysses in your neighbourhood, we need to know!

[ujio]

Ironically, check my thread in Anecdotals about Norwich.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=194808

I am operating at the slightly lower end of you (A London refugee!) and am experiencing exactly the same. I can't even seem to view any half decent places as they are 'sold' straight away. I can only guess that this 'Wall' of money is from H2B.

Compared to London people earn very little...You are considered a high roller on £40k.pa Anecdotal I know, but on nights out the acquaintances I've made struggle to spend much, whereas in the Smoke it was Table service at clubs at £20 cocktails!

[DabHand]

Ironically, check my thread in Anecdotals about Norwich.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=194808

I am operating at the slightly lower end of you (A London refugee!) and am experiencing exactly the same. I can't even seem to view any half decent places as they are 'sold' straight away. I can only guess that this 'Wall' of money is from H2B.

Compared to London people earn very little...You are considered a high roller on £40k.pa Anecdotal I know, but on nights out the acquaintances I've made struggle to spend much, whereas in the Smoke it was Table service at clubs at £20 cocktails!

Why did you leave London? Job or family was it? Tired of life are you!!?

I did read your thread which did make me wonder, and clearly something is up. l didn't post this in regional as l want to know if this is a Norwich phenomena only (Cambridge effect creeping up?) and l want more people to see it cos l am needy and seek approval.

There is no wall of money from H2B as l expect you know, so Londoners it is then?

[Fromage Frais]

I think it started with fls and London prices going up h2b has yet to click in yet fully.

It will end as it's a clear bubble as local incomes cannot support a fraction of these prices.

This will mean that where London goes so will this market as surely there are better options if your working in London than Norwich.

[feed]

My corner of Essex has gone mental.

This is really close to me,

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41758345.html

I expected it to go up at £400k maybe £425K to push an above £400k sale. It’s on at £499k. Insane, time will tell if it goes at that, if it breaches £450 I’d be shocked. But generally asking has gone to the moon, and completions are following. Anecdotally I’m hearing it’s another wave of money moving out of London. And as a friend just sold in Islington to move to Suffolk, that ripple seems to be moving further. Not surprised Norwich has seen some increases.

I lived in Norwich 1999-2001, when you could pick up a 2 bed terrace for £55k.. Sadly I didn't.

[Ash4781]

These days you need a "The wife and I are both in the top 10% of earners". It's household income now not just main income. People are borrowing higher multiples of combined household income on a joint income mortgage. The handbrake has been taken off lending.

Congratulations on the imminent child. Try get the wife back into work asap and show your young child how to clean chimneys?

There seems to be roughly 25% above 4 debt to income ratio. The maximum a bank will lend now I think is about 4X. I guess if they want to sell they will have to find someone with a larger deposit than they originally had and or a higher earner?

Edited December 4, 2013 by Ash4781

[MrPin]

My sister has just moved from outer London to Sussex, so she can spend more time and money on the train!

[Democorruptcy]

There seems to be roughly 25% above 4 debt to income ratio. The maximum a bank will lend now I think is about 4X. I guess if they want to sell they will have to find someone with a larger deposit than they originally had and or a higher earner?

What makes you think that?

I just tried Halifax and they do 4.3 for 2 FTB incomes no children, no extra income, no credit.

2 x 50k = 430k

2 x 20k = 172

http://www.halifax.co.uk/mortgages/forms/minicalc/container.asp#result

YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE.

[Ash4781]

What makes you think that?

I just tried Halifax and they do 4.3 for 2 FTB incomes no children, no extra income, no credit.

2 x 50k = 430k

2 x 20k = 172

http://www.halifax.co.uk/mortgages/forms/minicalc/container.asp#result

YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON YOUR MORTGAGE.

Cheers. Maybe it's creeping up. I think help to buy is max 4X

Edited December 4, 2013 by Ash4781

[Democorruptcy]

Cheers. Maybe it's creeping up. I think help to buy is max 4X

On 2 x 50k borrowing 430k

At 5% over 25 years the monthly payment is 2514

http://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/uk/

Net income for both is 5994

http://www.netsalarycalculator.net/

So the mortgage is 42% of net income.

[renting til I die]

Congratulations on the imminent child. Try get the wife back into work asap and show your young child how to clean chimneys?

This is sad but true! I earn a good wage but the wife earns peanuts! And we are both the wrong side of 35! I saved a fair bit, most peoples eye but not enough to buy outright and I don't think I want to pour my life savings and have a huge mortgage just to buy a home now. So looks like long term renting for me now!

[montesquieu]

This is sad but true! I earn a good wage but the wife earns peanuts! And we are both the wrong side of 35! I saved a fair bit, most peoples eye but not enough to buy outright and I don't think I want to pour my life savings and have a huge mortgage just to buy a home now. So looks like long term renting for me now!

This was me when I moved south from Scotland in 2004. When did I buy? Earlier this year, before it all went a bit nuts again.

Be careful - if/when the shit hits the fan the deals will be worse than now and thinner on the ground, while stock levels plummet as accidental landlordism increases and others stay put 'till things recover'. It may not be much easier than now to pick up something decent.

Heresy round here but if you really want to settle long term, it might be better to get a nice low fix now and just bite the bullet. In 5 years time you'll be 5 years further on with paying it down.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

This was me when I moved south from Scotland in 2004. When did I buy? Earlier this year, before it all went a bit nuts again.

Be careful - if/when the shit hits the fan the deals will be worse than now and thinner on the ground, while stock levels plummet as accidental landlordism increases and others stay put 'till things recover'. It may not be much easier than now to pick up something decent.

Heresy round here but if you really want to settle long term, it might be better to get a nice low fix now and just bite the bullet. In 5 years time you'll be 5 years further on with paying it down.

Next time...the bankers will be repossesing and selling on to anyone with cash.

[Fromage Frais]

On 2 x 50k borrowing 430k

At 5% over 25 years the monthly payment is 2514

http://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/uk/

Net income for both is 5994

http://www.netsalarycalculator.net/

So the mortgage is 42% of net income.

Good luck getting that in Norwich.

I saw a council report which stated only Cringleford had a combined household income of 50k

Wages have shrunk since then for sure one only has to look at the acres of empty commercial property locally.

[1929crash]

My sister has just moved from outer London to Sussex, so she can spend more time and money on the train!

[billybong]

At least part of it could be estate agents putting in extremely daft valuations in the hope of making the news and spreading UK wide panic amongst potential buyers.

It's a ploy that can really only be used during a period of negative feeling towards property. It's crazy antics trying to alter peoples perceptions of the market in a low volume thin market.

Of course some people will buy at extremely daft valuations which appears to help their cause.

Edited December 5, 2013 by billybong

[Maynardgravy]

I like being completely and utterly priced out as opposed to slightly priced out. The latter means you're on the edge of taking the plunge. This way, I just sit back and watch the idiots debt themselves up to oblivion.

[Austin Allegro]

I like being completely and utterly priced out as opposed to slightly priced out. The latter means you're on the edge of taking the plunge. This way, I just sit back and watch the idiots debt themselves up to oblivion.

Yes, there's a certain sense of relief when you realise you're of out of the game, perhaps permanently. Being priced out has been good for me in a way as I've developed a much more philosophical, less materialistic view on life, which I don't think I would have done if I was on the mortgage-slave hamster-wheel.

[ujio]

Why did you leave London? Job or family was it? Tired of life are you!!?

I did read your thread which did make me wonder, and clearly something is up. l didn't post this in regional as l want to know if this is a Norwich phenomena only (Cambridge effect creeping up?) and l want more people to see it cos l am needy and seek approval.

There is no wall of money from H2B as l expect you know, so Londoners it is then?

I left last year as I had finished a contracting gig in the City and fancied a change (believe it or not I was getting a bit bored of the same old life in London). I managed to find a job up here which I thought would be a bit of a sabbatical... but it's proving a lot more challenging than I thought!

I'm actually living in Gorleston right now ... a move from St Johns Wood, London. Oh how the mighty have fallen!.

Great thing about coming up here was how 'cheap' everything seemed relative to my old life. Nights out, eating out, rent etc. This is going to be shit if I ever make the move back which seems likely sooner or later. Being a decent sized fish in a small pond as opposed to being krill in an ocean.

If you live up here and are in a good solid profession (e.g. Doctor), you would be doing great. However, on the whole your average wage appears to be what I was getting soon after I graduated 10 years ago. For example, our company is recruiting for a few positions and I'm gobsmacked how many older professionals come for the interviews for a £23k jobs. I am told we pay above the market rate for the area! How the hell people manage to live and run households netting £1400 a month I don't know.

Another thing that struck me is how dead the nightlife is only until Saturday night (or payday Saturday nights), and even then people are hardly larging it. But people seem to be running decent newish cars (on PCP probably) and you do see the odd Porsche etc and some old money around.

The only way I believe the surge in housing demand is coming from London fugees is from retirees/downsizers as there is no decent job market to meet the expectations of the younger folk who are used to London pay. Using my office as a cross section example, 90% are yocal local natives (majority of which have been working here 10-35years!!).

Initially, I believed this Property buying surge was a mass conspiracy by estate agents in collusion to bid up the market and get everyone into that mentality to think 'quick, buy that property before it's gone'. However, this delusion has cost me dear in the past (was going to buy a flat in prime London in 09 for 390k, but thought things would unfold further...let's just say I've stopped kicking myself).

This demand seems very real.

[LC1]

I like being completely and utterly priced out as opposed to slightly priced out. The latter means you're on the edge of taking the plunge. This way, I just sit back and watch the idiots debt themselves up to oblivion.

Agree. A short while ago we were on the brink of throwing in our chips, but now we can only look on from the sidelines, bemused looks on our faces and popcorn bucket in hand...

It certainly takes some of the ambiguity out of it