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House Price Crash Forum


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About ujio

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  1. For some reason I can't paste the link here. But there's a guardian article saying how 40% of purchases in 2013 had been cash buyers, and I can believe that with what I have seen anecdotally. Either that or people have a sh*tload of equity in their homes. I'm using the sample size of people I know or am acquainted with, maybe that is not truly representative? I also believe that it is very very unlikely to see significant interest rate rises anytime soon. This is the new normal. I would love nothing better to be proved massively wrong! But I don't think that constantly living in denial of the actual facts is going to help either. Many have been on this site over 10 years, let's see what the next 2 years show. We all know what really should be happening, but this whole charade can be made to spin for a long long time. A 50% crash would represent a return to 2006 prices for many areas in London.
  2. There appears to be no end of net inflow of wealthy people in London. In fact, it appears that a lot of the top tier from France and Italy are now residing in London. If you go to South Kensington the first language in restaurants and bars appear to be French followed by Italian. I honestly now believe that London is a safe haven for all the wealthy to get away from their crumbling economies. I live in prime central North West London (renting) and I put a post up around 2011 where I said the flat below me went on sale at £620k (2 bedder) after the old lady who lived there for years had passed. It was snapped up immediately for just over asking, heavily renovated and flipped for £825k cash to a young international couple funded by mum and dad. The flat below that was bought by a young Russian couple (again mum and dad cash funded) for £760k a few years earlier. Now the flat below that owned by another old woman who passed away 2months ago was snapped up immediately by a developer without it ever hitting the market for approx. £1.2million, who I suspect will flip this to cash buying foreigners. The rest of the populace appear to be the old guard who bought in years back and now sitting on veritable goldmines. Prices have over doubled in this area from the 2006-07 ‘peak’, a lot of the rise has been since 2011. This is all from the coal face, to counter posters who have no idea of what is actually going on in London and base their assumptions on false hopes. The banker bonus cuts, the housing benefit cuts and any other measure which you would rightly assume to have curtailed housing price increase has done nothing of the sort, in fact, they are increasing at a faster rate. This is primarily due to the fact that London’s demographic is continuing to change at a rapid rate to align to the international wealthy as well as lots and lots of far eastern money looking to be parked somewhere ‘safe’. I feel that sentiment is so strong that even if interest rates were to rise to 5% in the next two years it won’t significantly dent the prices. I will put it here, and will revisit this post every year to see if I am off but house prices in London will not signicantly reduce. At worst they may come off by 10%, but what’s that.. giving back 6months worth of gain? I have been a long time property bear which has unfortunately cost me heavily financially (sold a place in 07 for 350k which now values at 500k without buying back in) as well as losing face amongst the ‘bulls’ in my family who now openly laugh at my prediction of overvalued homes correcting. Sometimes I wish I never found this site and bought back in when I had the opportunity to!
  3. I left last year as I had finished a contracting gig in the City and fancied a change (believe it or not I was getting a bit bored of the same old life in London). I managed to find a job up here which I thought would be a bit of a sabbatical... but it's proving a lot more challenging than I thought! I'm actually living in Gorleston right now ... a move from St Johns Wood, London. Oh how the mighty have fallen!. Great thing about coming up here was how 'cheap' everything seemed relative to my old life. Nights out, eating out, rent etc. This is going to be shit if I ever make the move back which seems likely sooner or later. Being a decent sized fish in a small pond as opposed to being krill in an ocean. If you live up here and are in a good solid profession (e.g. Doctor), you would be doing great. However, on the whole your average wage appears to be what I was getting soon after I graduated 10 years ago. For example, our company is recruiting for a few positions and I'm gobsmacked how many older professionals come for the interviews for a £23k jobs. I am told we pay above the market rate for the area! How the hell people manage to live and run households netting £1400 a month I don't know. Another thing that struck me is how dead the nightlife is only until Saturday night (or payday Saturday nights), and even then people are hardly larging it. But people seem to be running decent newish cars (on PCP probably) and you do see the odd Porsche etc and some old money around. The only way I believe the surge in housing demand is coming from London fugees is from retirees/downsizers as there is no decent job market to meet the expectations of the younger folk who are used to London pay. Using my office as a cross section example, 90% are yocal local natives (majority of which have been working here 10-35years!!). Initially, I believed this Property buying surge was a mass conspiracy by estate agents in collusion to bid up the market and get everyone into that mentality to think 'quick, buy that property before it's gone'. However, this delusion has cost me dear in the past (was going to buy a flat in prime London in 09 for 390k, but thought things would unfold further...let's just say I've stopped kicking myself). This demand seems very real.
  4. Ironically, check my thread in Anecdotals about Norwich. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=194808 I am operating at the slightly lower end of you (A London refugee!) and am experiencing exactly the same. I can't even seem to view any half decent places as they are 'sold' straight away. I can only guess that this 'Wall' of money is from H2B. Compared to London people earn very little...You are considered a high roller on £40k.pa Anecdotal I know, but on nights out the acquaintances I've made struggle to spend much, whereas in the Smoke it was Table service at clubs at £20 cocktails!
  5. Damn, I thought I left this sh@t behind me when I left London! I moved from central London to Norwich a year ago and have started to look for somewhere to buy about a month ago. Trouble is anything I try to view has either gone under offer when I call up the estate agents or I get my viewings cancelled because the seller has found a buyer. Last week I phoned up about 9 properties to view over the week ( try to organise most for the weekend). Out of the 9 , 3 just had offers accepted in the previous two days. Out of the remaining 6, three were cancelled on the day or day before the viewings due to asking price offers. So I got to view only three ! One of which had an offer accepted the hour before I viewed it...arghhh! These are all around the sub 200k range. Not sure if this is all due to h2b first timers or people trying to front run them and Christmas time. What's shocking is how quickly and easily these 'offers' are being made like its a game of monopoly. It seems that the 'wall' of money outside London is coming from cheap credit... As this place doesn't stink of liquid cash and wealth of the central London that I left. On the plus side, 200k here will buy you a lovely detached house in a decent area here... In St. John's wood London I was looking at 250k starters for a frigging studio. The madness is back and or it's still live and kicking.....
  6. I live and rent in Nw8 , slap bang in St Johns Wood. The Americans in the house next door to my flat left to go back to the US a few years ago. It was then bought (3.5 million) almost immediately by Carlos tevez's agent who spent a year gutting it and doing it all up again. The flat below me was sold for 625k in nov 09. It was gutted and re-sold in July 11 for 825k!! That's for a two bed 780sq ft first floor flat with no garden or parking! It was bought by a foreign national for his young son. If anyone leaves town there is a queue of foreign buyers to take their place, and increasingly they are not American or bankers but very very cash rich *******!!
  7. About 50% higher in the case of flat10. This is obviously prime London which has no bearing on the rest of the country.
  8. http://www.findaproperty.com/soldsearch.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&pid=10005907&sp=0&sporder=4&spreverse=0 Well this is the sold flat prices in bolt court ec4.. As you can see the 2011 sold prices are quite significantly higher than what they were bought for in march 2007.
  9. Sorry. Totally cocked up posting and quoting my last post on this shit iPad. Flat went for 820k a couple of months back.
  10. .....Just had a few viewing already today. Together with those yesterday, there is a fair bit of interest evident....
  11. Bump. For another update. The flat modernisation has just been completed. What an ball ache it's been with all the dust settling in our flat (somehow everything got coated with the shit over a few days) and with the Poles hard at work banging away from 8am Monday-Sat. And what happens when I peer on rightmove?? Yes, you guessed it... it's up for sale again! Asking price....? 850k !!! For the record after taking a look around it, it seems that its been totally gutted and modernised at probably a far cheaper cost than I originally thought. It's also stated at 750sq ft on rightmove (thought it was 850-900). Now, how many takers on how quick it will sell for and at what price and who to? This is NW8 and will make for another anecdotal for prime London. It looks like the house next door (it's like our conversion except a house and not converted into 4flats) which was bought 18months back is going to be fully completed soon. With a basement installed. Looks like flipping is flipping back here for those with deep pockets.....
  12. Holy thread resurrection Batman! Wow... a 3 year anniversary of this thread, which should have marked the turning point! Yet 3 years on it seems we are still here. This time has gone in a blur, let's re-visit again in 3 years time by which time all you will see in HPC land is tumble weed And yes, I have lost my faith.
  13. With all due respect Ken, it really does depend on who you class as your peers. Mine seem to be the biggest bunch of annoying over-achievers (coming from a public school). We are all in our late 20s and everyone is a professional of some sort. Either working in the City in Private Equity/Interest Rate Derivatives trading/Magic Circle Law firm/ VPs at IBs. A few others are IT contractors who earn a pretty good wedge. Some are Doctors (two of my best friends are early in their GP careers after years of study and being junior doctors), dentistry (one guy is probably doing the best out of everyone I know!). A couple also run businesses which provide them with a very very good lifestyle. In fact I would go to say that I am doing the sh*ttest out the lot. But then I correlate that with being on here with the rest of whinging no-hopers. However, for all these guys in their late 20s earning 6figure sums I am aware of countless others who I don't mix with who are exactly as you describe. Funnily enough I just had to go out to Yarmouth to realise that 90% of the population exist just like this. This is the biggest problem of existing in the hub of London, you just aren't fully aware of what is exactly going on outside the ivory tower in the wider economy across the nation. The trouble is, despite their intellect, I am the only one of my peers who realise this as they only see those who are doing 'better' than them.
  14. He does work exceptionally hard for his money, 10hour days and also Saturdays. I personally couldn't do it as I am a lazy bugger. But I could think of much more stressful/physical jobs which allow you to just pay your bills. But I guess it's more than made up for when he jumps into his drop top Lambo paid for in cash at the age of 27 at the end of the day. Whilst The rest of us will cry about being screwed by the system working equally soul destroying jobs sitting in front of a computer 9hours a day and going back to nowhere in sh*tsville on a packed train. Some people have infinitely more options available to them at the expense of a little more work and a little less time to waste watching TV or fu*king about on the internet.
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