ubuntu Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, warpig said: £1m/BTC 😲 Do you really think BTC will rise by 2,381% from the current price? yes eventually but not this cycle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pup Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: i sold most of my holdings to lock in my profit i now cant lose!. I think i sold above the new higher low when it does eventually pop. It will pop and not quickly hit 1m a BTC in this cycle even being very bullish that's madness. I do fully expect a huge % of the recent investors who have clearly been panic buying, to equally panic sell in a few months at large losses. I have seen it several times before in previous cycles. But of course some rare true holders will also be born in the flames of a crash. I set up a small DCA on the basis that for most of the time the DCA is going it will be picking up the lows when the next four year cycle starts. I think the peak may be between now and October this year, If i had to guess the peak would be £65k a bitcoin, low after the crash maybe around £15-25k a BTC. The bigger worry would be that in the next four year cycle it might not be against such a positive backdrop for Bitcoin, Bored home workers, Stimulus Checks, etc. But the next ATH after this one could be around £150k But who knows! Perhaps the new ALT happening at the moment followed by correcting will shake out the weakest of hands. I'm taking a 10 year view on Bitcoin..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 (edited) 23 minutes ago, warpig said: £1m/BTC 😲 Do you really think BTC will rise by 2,381% from the current price? Its a case of when not if. It cannot fail to do this eventually assuming fiat money printing continues at the current pace, so if you think it wont then you need a plausible scenario for this. The issuance rate of fiat is exponential, the issuance rate of bitcoin is logarithmic, to paraphrase the fictional engineer on the titanic "... its a mathematical certainty". Edited March 17, 2021 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 hour ago, warpig said: Are people still buying at the moment? For every seller there has to be a buyer, if no one was on the bid side, the price would quickly drop to zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 (edited) 17 minutes ago, markyh said: For every seller there has to be a buyer, if no one was on the bid side, the price would quickly drop to zero. Bitcoin needs about 45 $million a day inflow to maintain price parity (current issuance is 900 btc/day). This sounds like a lot but it is for example about 1/10th of the inflow gold requires to do the same. Edited March 17, 2021 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, warpig said: £1m/BTC 😲 Do you really think BTC will rise by 2,381% from the current price? It will take 40 years to mine the last Bitcoin so of course it will hit $1m one day. Not this halvening though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: i sold most of my holdings to lock in my profit i now cant lose!. I think i sold above the new higher low when it does eventually pop. It will pop and not quickly hit 1m a BTC in this cycle even being very bullish that's madness. I do fully expect a huge % of the recent investors who have clearly been panic buying, to equally panic sell in a few months at large losses. I have seen it several times before in previous cycles. But of course some rare true holders will also be born in the flames of a crash. I set up a small DCA on the basis that for most of the time the DCA is going it will be picking up the lows when the next four year cycle starts. I think the peak may be between now and October this year, If i had to guess the peak would be £65k a bitcoin, low after the crash maybe around £15-25k a BTC. The bigger worry would be that in the next four year cycle it might not be against such a positive backdrop for Bitcoin, Bored home workers, Stimulus Checks, etc. But the next ATH after this one could be around £150k But who knows! Perhaps the new ATH happening at the moment followed by correcting will shake out the weakest of hands. Sorry but you are massively, MASSIVELY underestimating this bull run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: i sold most of my holdings to lock in my profit i now cant lose!. I think i sold above the new higher low when it does eventually pop. It will pop and not quickly hit 1m a BTC in this cycle even being very bullish that's madness. I do fully expect a huge % of the recent investors who have clearly been panic buying, to equally panic sell in a few months at large losses. I have seen it several times before in previous cycles. But of course some rare true holders will also be born in the flames of a crash. I set up a small DCA on the basis that for most of the time the DCA is going it will be picking up the lows when the next four year cycle starts. I think the peak may be between now and October this year, If i had to guess the peak would be £65k a bitcoin, low after the crash maybe around £15-25k a BTC. The bigger worry would be that in the next four year cycle it might not be against such a positive backdrop for Bitcoin, Bored home workers, Stimulus Checks, etc. But the next ATH after this one could be around £150k But who knows! Perhaps the new ATH happening at the moment followed by correcting will shake out the weakest of hands. Something is coming... the price action in BTC has been exceptional when measured against other asset classes... it's normal for extended price action to correct. I personally think you got out at the perfect time... but of course I could be wrong. Having said that I still haven't bought (cue you will never buy replies)... I'd like to see a correction... a reasonable correction... to usher in normality to make this more sustainable. Exceptional rises are ordinarily followed by exceptional declines... Until normality is restore - I'm out... but still want in, but only at the right price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, warpig said: Something is coming... the price action in BTC has been exceptional when measured against other asset classes... it's normal for extended price action to correct. I personally think you got out at the perfect time... but of course I could be wrong. Having said that I still haven't bought (cue you will never buy replies)... I'd like to see a correction... a reasonable correction... to usher in normality to make this more sustainable. Exceptional rises are ordinarily followed by exceptional declines... Until normality is restore - I'm out... but still want in, but only at the right price. You should have bought in at $17K when myself and @markyh advised you. Now you are stuck on the sidelines desperate to buy in at $39K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, Pup said: If things stay as they are then the ONLY solution (IMHO) for governments around the world are more printing which means at least two things: 1) House prices (and other assets) are going to keep going up - and there will be lots more inequality in the world 2) Bitcoin will keep rising...... I agree with point 1... more money causes purchasing power diminishing marginal returns, which is effectively inflation. Assets will continue to rise whilst supported by demand. Point 2 is open to debate... it certainly won't be a straight line, so don't invest too much if your investment horizon can't tollerate the volatility. You should also have an exit plan and that shouldn't be driven purely by price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubuntu Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, warpig said: Something is coming... the price action in BTC has been exceptional when measured against other asset classes... it's normal for extended price action to correct. I personally think you got out at the perfect time... but of course I could be wrong. Having said that I still haven't bought (cue you will never buy replies)... I'd like to see a correction... a reasonable correction... to usher in normality to make this more sustainable. Exceptional rises are ordinarily followed by exceptional declines... Until normality is restore - I'm out... but still want in, but only at the right price. what you seem to ignore is the btc 4 year cycle, this may help you. of course you could be right but on the other hand... Compare where we are in the current cycle to previous cycles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 34 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said: Its a case of when not if. It cannot fail to do this eventually assuming fiat money printing continues at the current pace, so if you think it wont then you need a plausible scenario for this. The issuance rate of fiat is exponential, the issuance rate of bitcoin is logarithmic, to paraphrase the fictional engineer on the titanic "... its a mathematical certainty". New currencies are en route... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 34 minutes ago, markyh said: For every seller there has to be a buyer, if no one was on the bid side, the price would quickly drop to zero. Axiomatic, but the price is rounding off... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: It will take 40 years to mine the last Bitcoin so of course it will hit $1m one day. Not this halvening though. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said: Its a case of when not if. It cannot fail to do this eventually assuming fiat money printing continues at the current pace, so if you think it wont then you need a plausible scenario for this. The issuance rate of fiat is exponential, the issuance rate of bitcoin is logarithmic, to paraphrase the fictional engineer on the titanic "... its a mathematical certainty". ********. Money is being continuously destroyed at the same time as it's being created. It's open question whether Bitcoin has any enduring utility beyond the go-go junk bond status it currently enjoys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: You should have bought in at $17K when myself and @markyh advised you. Now you are stuck on the sidelines desperate to buy in at $39K. Not desperate... The big multiples you've seen since Q4 2020 are already in... to get 100% return on my money from today, BTC would need to hit $110K+. I can get 300% plus gains from other assets... I'm already positioned. I would however like to play the BTC game for a while. BTC is also the more interesting investment class out there at the moment, so even if I never get in, it's an education. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, warpig said: Not desperate... The big multiples you've seen since Q4 2020 are already in... to get 100% return on my money from today, BTC would need to hit $110K+. I can get 300% plus gains from other assets... I'm already positioned. I would however like to play the BTC game for a while. BTC is also the more interesting investment class out there at the moment, so even if I never get in, it's an education. Fair enough. I'd like to see you get some skin in the game one day to enjoy some of the mad gainz for yourself. It's fairly addicting once you're in. 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said: Fair enough. I'd like to see you get some skin in the game one day to enjoy some of the mad gainz for yourself. It's fairly addicting once you're in. 👍 I am tempted to dump £1K in and forget about it until later this year... it would be no different to putting £1K on a horse, but I just can't seem to do it... I would prefer to put considerably more in when it feels right. I'd like to join the BTC party! 🥤 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 2 hours ago, warpig said: Are people still buying at the moment? Every coin that is sold is also bought by someone... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, warpig said: I am tempted to dump £1K in and forget about it until later this year... it would be no different to putting £1K on a horse, but I just can't seem to do it... I would prefer to put considerably more in when it feels right. I'd like to join the BTC party! 🥤 Just DCA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, warpig said: Axiomatic, but the price is rounding off... And it rounded off and bobbled around for months last year at $9k....before suddenly shooting up to $50k. As always, the charts tell you nothing useful about the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, warpig said: Axiomatic, but the price is rounding off... Bitcoin historically has a poor Month in March more often than not. But April is usually a cracker. I dont think any othe the old hand expected much but sideways movements this March. We also have new things to contend with now Bitcoin has institutions involved, quarterly rebalancing. Ig they have this policy and first invested in Jan / Feb, the large gainz depending on the final March 31st price will see those institutions that have a asset balancing policy need to sell off some of their position in April / May to rebalance their holdings. Should work the other way too, if they set a BTC position % and BTC price falls, or other assets outperform it, they should buy more to bring up their BTC position again. We have never really had this in Bitcoin before, certainly not on scale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 37 minutes ago, warpig said: New currencies are en route... New currencies with exponential issuance rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, scottbeard said: And it rounded off and bobbled around for months last year at $9k....before suddenly shooting up to $50k. As always, the charts tell you nothing useful about the future. The convergence of 2 channels suggested a potential top. The rounding effect at the same point on the chart, also suggests a top... If the chart stops me buying an interim top, then the chart has done it's job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted March 17, 2021 Share Posted March 17, 2021 Some huge balls on here still holding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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