Crash Postponed In Stratford

[Father Fred]

Four offers on three different properties from prospective buyers who have not even viewed.

Owners (reasonably) adding 10% to asking prices and still getting viewings.

Nearly 100 buyers awaiting a call back for an initial chat. If you're reading this then good luck, it might well not be you.

James

[delboypass]

Intelligence can be grown and rewarded.

Lets hope people buying in Stratford dont get too badly burnt.....

[right_freds_dead]

no one will see my snappy replies as i cant get the quotes to work properly. bah.

i was going to mention about all talk and no actual sales.

Edited July 11, 2005 by right_freds_dead

[verolution]

sounds like a gold rush to me.

only problem is that its fools gold

[Portent]

Father Fred - do you get the impression these new buyers are genuinely new buyers or have been attracted to Stratford and away from another area? In other words is it BTL who would previously have bought in another London area who have diverted away and will buy in Stratford instead?

[Landagan]

But it's just people hedging their bets, if the news of an immenent crash gets any louder, they are hardly likely to complete.

[Father Fred]

But it's just people hedging their bets, if the news of an immenent crash gets any louder, they are hardly likely to complete.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you can be certain that prices are overvalued nationwide, you cannot be certain that certain areas will not boom in the face of nationwide falls.

your attitude is as head-in-the-sand as stupid emigrating bulls' attitude that there house is worth as much as the bigger overpriced one round the corner that was on the market at 250k.

buyers seem to be investors with portfolios (one i spoke to today geared at 45%) who are buying in the hope of covering costs short term but making money on capital growth. Surveyor/ developer with large portfolio at 45% gearing is not completely stupid, so if he's buying then maybe you should be too?

FF

[RJG18]

Surveyor/ developer with large portfolio at 45% gearing is not completely stupid,

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Can I disagree. Someone who is paying 10% over asking prices in a falling market is clearly very stupid. In current market conditions, if you really wanted to invest, surely you should be pitching offers as far below asking price as you think might be accepted, and if they're not accepted then walk away and find a better deal, as there's massive over-supply at present.

And as for a strategy, investing in a falling market in order to "cover your costs" but benefit from "Capital growth" doesn't seem to be too sensible either.

It's not that sensible either to argue that you've identified several people who are doing something that logically is very stupid, and arguing this is evidence that other people should copy them. If so, then please do not attend the "Running with Scissors Convention" at Earls Courts from 19th - 21st July.

[Landagan]

So investors with portfolios are immediately seen as sincere in their approach?

Any offers made now must surely have a chance of falling through in the light of increased speculation of a crash, whether it be in Stratford or anywhere else.

Stratford will just be 10% higher from peak to trough.

I'd have been more convinced if you had told me these offers were from the normal rank and file, like myself.

Personally I'm just holding out for an affordable family house in my hometown.

Then I can just forget about house prices for a good 20+ years.

[IP Newcomer]

Another candidate to move to the local board?

[Father Fred]

Can I disagree.  Someone who is paying 10% over asking prices in a falling market is clearly very stupid.  In current market conditions, if you really wanted to invest, surely you should be pitching offers as far below asking price as you think might be accepted, and if they're not accepted then walk away and find a better deal, as there's massive over-supply at present.

And as for a strategy, investing in a falling market in order to "cover your costs" but benefit from "Capital growth" doesn't seem to be too sensible either. 

It's not that sensible either to argue that you've identified several people who are doing something that logically is very stupid, and arguing this is evidence that other people should copy them.  If so, then please do not attend the "Running with Scissors Convention" at Earls Courts from 19th - 21st July.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Prices are rising in Stratford at the moment. Vendors are increasing asking prices, I have a property priced £10k (5%) above realistic selling prices (from 2 weeks ago when they were taken on) where the owners have rejected several asking price offers and are looking to accept the best offer that is received by the end of the week. I currently have 8 viewers booked into view the property and they have been told that vendors are looking for offers above asking price.

There is not a massive oversupply. I would have put a ceiling price at £250k on all but the premium 3 bed victorian terraces in the area. At the moment I have NO 3 BED TERRACES IN MY BOOKS FOR UNDER £280k. Massive undersupply!

Normal rank and file cannot afford to buy (sorry, it is pretty much a fact) however investors can afford to and they are in the belief that the upsurge in prices will cntinue.

Surveyors in the last 6 months have been down-valuing slightly on the basis that prices were falling slightly, I believe now they will be more optimistic in their valuations.

This may not be what you want to hear, it may fly in the face of what you believe to be rational, and it may only last a few weeks (though I suspect it will last longer), but it is what is happening in my area now.

Ignoring the facts is not a rational way for investors to behave.

FF

[Bubble Pricker]

Four offers on three different properties from prospective buyers who have not even viewed.

Owners (reasonably) adding 10% to asking prices and still getting viewings.

Nearly 100 buyers awaiting a call back for an initial chat.  If you're reading this then good luck, it might well not be you.

James

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There will, unfortunately, a suckers' rally or gold rush or whatever you wish to call it in Stratford whilst the initial Olympia euphoria lasts. This will fizzle out in one or two years' time, when realisation sets in that the Olympics are still years away and that 7000 new homes being built in the Lea Valley will not help house prices rise further in the area. Many people will get burnt.

[sign_of_the_times]

There will, unfortunately, a suckers' rally or gold rush or whatever you wish to call it in Stratford whilst the initial Olympia euphoria lasts.  This will fizzle out in one or two years' time, when realisation sets in that the Olympics are still years away and that 7000 new homes being built in the Lea Valley will not help house prices rise further in the area.  Many people will get burnt.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

that euphoria ran out last thursday.........

[the end is a bit nigher]

Normal rank and file cannot afford to buy (sorry, it is pretty much a fact) however investors can afford to and they are in the belief that the upsurge in prices will cntinue.

Ignoring the facts is not a rational way for investors to behave.

FF

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would agree with all you say re: investing and burying head in sand. However, I can guarantee to you that investors frequently get it wrong and I don't see why those buying houses should be any different.

If the rank and file can't afford to buy then who do these investors think they are going to get their capital gains off? More investors? A basic rule of investing has always been to not chase the market.

Let us not forget that a few months ago the builders were telling us that there was no problem. Now they are reporting falling sales and a difficult market. They called it wrong.

Living in Harrogate I can tell you that asking prices have barely budged in the last 9 months but they will. The nicer parts of the country will always be last to go but they will.

[Guest The dude]

Prices are rising in Stratford at the moment.  Vendors are increasing asking prices, I have a property priced £10k (5%) above realistic selling prices (from 2 weeks ago when they were taken on) where the owners have rejected several asking price offers and are looking to accept the best offer that is received by the end of the week.  I currently have 8 viewers booked into view the property and they have been told that vendors are looking for offers above asking price.

There is not a massive oversupply.  I would have put a ceiling price at £250k on all but the premium 3 bed victorian terraces in the area.  At the moment I have NO 3 BED TERRACES IN MY BOOKS FOR UNDER £280k.  Massive undersupply!

Normal rank and file cannot afford to buy (sorry, it is pretty much a fact) however investors can afford to and they are in the belief that the upsurge in prices will cntinue.

Surveyors in the last 6 months have been down-valuing slightly on the basis that prices were falling slightly, I believe now they will be more optimistic in their valuations.

This may not be what you want to hear, it may fly in the face of what you believe to be rational, and it may only last a few weeks (though I suspect it will last longer), but it is what is happening in my area now.

Ignoring the facts is not a rational way for investors to behave.

FF

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"Prices are rising in Stratford at the moment..."...FF...this statement merely reinforces my views on EA's per se...you are all a bunch of lying bastards...I actually cannot wait until most EA's are wiped out....FF...you're arrogance appalls me....I really do hope you go to the wall you devious *******

Edited July 11, 2005 by The dude

[dog]

Four offers on three different properties from prospective buyers who have not even viewed.

Owners (reasonably) adding 10% to asking prices and still getting viewings.

Nearly 100 buyers awaiting a call back for an initial chat.  If you're reading this then good luck, it might well not be you.

James

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The last paragraph of your post gives the game away. The first thing that anyone does when they are in the market to buy a house is visit the the local estate agents to register and view whats on offer. Since when do buyers sit around waiting for a call back for an 'an initial chat'?

I am offended. I demand that you post more plausible lies.

Edited July 11, 2005 by dog

[jpidding]

Cheers for keeping us informed FF. As many posters say on this site you are a very valuable asset in terms of a person on the inside so to speak.

We all should welcome opinions from as broad a selection of people as possible.

I am a confirmed bear, but I get sick of reading 2 line comments like "yeah, the crash is coming....there's no way it can't now" with no other constructive comment.

I am also totally fed up with the EA bashing that goes on. The money that has been made by EA's in boom time is nothing to be ashamed of. They are just brokers. It is in their own best interests to secure as many deals for the highest margin possible.....this is Capitalism. If you don't like it go to Cuba.

Let's stay objective, be open to opinions from all circles and not get agressive. This is not a site to vent anger, it is designed to keep us all informed with as many FACTS at possible on the subject of HP and UK/world ecconomy.

As a footnote to FF, please let us know how many of these viewings turn into offers (and at what % of asking) and how many go to completion.

James.

[justanewbie]

Four offers on three different properties from prospective buyers who have not even viewed.

Owners (reasonably) adding 10% to asking prices and still getting viewings.

Nearly 100 buyers awaiting a call back for an initial chat. If you're reading this then good luck, it might well not be you.

James

========================================

I'm sorry.

I find this impossible to believe.

Even at the height of the boom, these things did not happen.

Four offers on 3 props, where buyers have not even viewed...

come off it.

[Merryn]

Four offers on three different properties from prospective buyers who have not even viewed.

Owners (reasonably) adding 10% to asking prices and still getting viewings.

Nearly 100 buyers awaiting a call back for an initial chat. If you're reading this then good luck, it might well not be you.

James

========================================

I'm sorry.

I find this impossible to believe.

Even at the height of the boom, these things did not happen.

Four offers on 3 props, where buyers have not even viewed...

come off it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Curious that FF signed himself "James" this time, too.

Just like his recent supporter JPidding does 

[jpidding]

I noticed that too!

Trust me....I am not FF. I am also not Jame Bond, but I'm guessing he signs his name the same way I do too.....spooky!

[Catch22]

Cheers for keeping us informed FF. As many posters say on this site you are a very valuable asset in terms of a person on the inside so to speak.

We all should welcome opinions from as broad a selection of people as possible.

I am a confirmed bear, but I get sick of reading 2 line comments like "yeah, the crash is coming....there's no way it can't now" with no other constructive comment.

I am also totally fed up with the EA bashing that goes on. The money that has been made by EA's in boom time is nothing to be ashamed of. They are just brokers. It is in their own best interests to secure as many deals for the highest margin possible.....this is Capitalism. If you don't like it go to Cuba.

Let's stay objective, be open to opinions from all circles and not get agressive. This is not a site to vent anger, it is designed to keep us all informed with as many FACTS at possible on the subject of HP and UK/world ecconomy.

As a footnote to FF, please let us know how many of these viewings turn into offers (and at what % of asking) and how many go to completion.

James.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm also a confirmed bear regards the housing market, I have put my money where my mouth is and are STR'ing since end of last month. And I totally agree with the above comments.

There are enough VI's out there calling this site a home for loons, and stupid one liners can only re enforce that view. If the poster comes over as an out and out prat fair do's but otherwise use a bit of savvy. FF is reporting what he is seeing on the ground.....you know people where buying the tech stocks at their peak prior the collapse.....so don't let your frustrations get the better of you. This market is going where this market is going, and venting your spleen will not make it alter course or happen any faster. Work out your exit strategy, place your bets and leave your emotions out of it.

By the way my first name is also James, so there you have it...confirmation I must be a VI mole.

[Father Fred]

I'm also a confirmed bear regards the housing market, I have put my money where my mouth is and are STR'ing since end of last month. And I totally agree with the above comments.

There are enough VI's out there calling this site a home for loons, and stupid one liners can only re enforce that view. If the poster comes over as an out and out prat fair do's but otherwise use a bit of savvy. FF is reporting what he is seeing on the ground.....you know people where buying the tech stocks at their peak prior the collapse.....so don't let your frustrations get the better of you. This market is going where this market is going, and venting your spleen will not make it alter course or happen any faster. Work out your exit strategy, place your bets and leave your emotions out of it.

By the way my first name is also James, so there you have it...confirmation I must be a VI mole. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Slip of the tongue... I'm Adam really!

We shall see what the market does. I'll let you know how things go.

I will say that the phone is not ringing anywhere near as much today as it was yesterday, Weds pm, Friday, and Saturday. (Thursday was quieter due to bombing in London). It could be that the market has experienced the shortest mini-boom in history! My prediction is that prices will stabilise at or slightly above peak levels for the best properties, but it may be that the less desirable ones will go unsold if the owners are too greedy - I just had a buyer cancelling a viewing having seen a poorly located property from the outside - that is slightly overpriced (IMHO) but in the current market I should be able to get more viewings than I am.

FF

[Father Fred]

Can I just add that the market here is overvalued by 25% in my opinion when comparing to rental income or what buyers who want to live here can afford.

I assume other areas are more overvalued others less.

BUT, rental demand is likely to rise massively (construction workers and propective buyers wanting to test the market). Buyers will buy to live here on the basis that capital growth is likely to be at a maximum in the area compared to others areas. ALso the profile of buyers is likely to change.

Anyway, final words of wisdom...

The market has a habit of surprising everyone. TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED. CHALLENGE EVERYTHING.

FF

[Ah-so]

There is not a massive oversupply.  I would have put a ceiling price at £250k on all but the premium 3 bed victorian terraces in the area.  At the moment I have NO 3 BED TERRACES IN MY BOOKS FOR UNDER £280k.  Massive undersupply!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well Rightmove only has 6 3-bedroom houses OVER £280,000, and 49 under, so your statistically your evidence is not representitive of Stratford unless you only have 1 or 2.

In fact, if Rightmove is representitive, statistical analysis would suggest that your sample is so unlikely to have come from Stratford that your anecdotal evidence is not to be trusted.

However, I would not disagree that some may think that Stratford is to become a property "hotspot" rather than an East London dump following the Olympic decision and prices may rise accordingly.

[Father Fred]

Well Rightmove only has 6 3-bedroom houses OVER £280,000, and 49 under, so your statistically your evidence is not representitive of Stratford unless you only have 1 or 2.

In fact, if Rightmove is representitive, statistical analysis would suggest that your sample is so unlikely to have come from Stratford that your anecdotal evidence is not to be trusted.

However, I would not disagree that some may think that Stratford is to become a property "hotspot" rather than an East London dump following the Olympic decision and prices may rise accordingly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

To be precise (and having taken one on last night) we have 1 x 3 bed marginally under 280k (greedy owner) and 2 x 3 bed under 250k. We have no 3 bed victorian terrances under 250k at all... not an indication of over-supply!

I have never said my experience is representative, but I'm sure it isn't a million miles from the truth either.

FF