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House Price Crash Forum


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About jpidding

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  1. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-29/latest-bubble-hong-kong-parking-space-sells-double-average-us-home-price One tenth of this would be huge bubble territory. Just amazing.
  2. I think social unrest is inevitable. Greece is gonna be an interesting test case.
  3. I have about €100k with them. Until a few weeks ago they were giving me 4.55% gross. They have just dropped that to 0.5%. Now with this news there's big incentive to move it somewhere else.
  4. Thanks...its slightly miss quoted....did it from memory....its a classic innit?
  5. ....borrowing costs go up significantly. This probably wont happen by the BoE's MPC....they are too tethered by politics...they only have "independance" when house prices are booming and everything's rosey. It will have to happen by the markets forcing the issue by losing an appetite for sterling gov bonds. Once this happens all other rates will climb up too. I have wondered how prices could stay high relative to wages in the worst recession since the great depression. The simple answer is IR's. People are idiots and do not seem to have the ability to consider repaying the capital. People only think about what they can get now. They assume inflation will kick in and wages will rise. If they can survive the next 5-10 years then they'll be on easy street. I cant really see wage inflation any time soon. Government spending and hence public sector jobs will HAVE to be cut. This will not happen before the election, but when it does, the headwind in the jobs market will remove the ability of workers to push for pay rises. Add into the equation the fact that energy (and hence everything else) are becoming scarcer, whilst Chinese growth continues at 10% or so, and you'll have an amazing squeeze on disposable income. House prices WILL fall one way or another. The worry is that IR's are held down so long by QE that our precious deposits are whittled away. For this reason you need to have at least 50% in something tangible....preferable precious metals. I think the seeds for large falls will be sown this year, but you wont see it til 2011. JP
  6. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/buy-to-let/article.html?in_article_id=498582&in_page_id=56 Rentals are the liquid end of the market. Contracts are much more flexible and short in duration compared to buying, hence the market reacts to supply / demand imbalances much faster. "House rents fall 5% in just two months" Yelds falling is a great indicator. JP
  7. I visited Venezuelan island Isla Margarita 5 years ago...Chevez was just being re-elected. Most people liked his socialist style and at the time I felt sympathy for his socialist activities....nationalising the big oil companies "for the benefit of the people". Now he seems to be losing it. He will cause terrible shortages and drive a huge black market with his policies of currency devaluation and price controls... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8451056.stm There will be a revolt at some point I'm sure as people go hungry and social order breaks down. JP.
  8. Last time I looked gold was at $1100 or so. So according to your calculations it will rise another 2.5 fold? Thats not what I call "near the peak". Also those inflation adjusted calculations use "official" inflation stats. If you use the shadow stats you get an adjusted figure of more like $5000. If you use an adjustment based upone money supply growth vs available gold growth you get astronomical numbers.....well above $20,000. I agree gold will one day be in a bubble, but it has ceratinly not gone mainstream yet. How many people discuss their gold holdings at dinner parties, or which junior mining stock is about to go into production? JP.
  9. OK, here's my favourite....its a doozy as our american friends would say. If anyone doubts that we will have inflation, just look at the chart. Base money (from which the fractional reserve banking effect multiplies to give broad money supply) has gone up 2.5 fold in the US. This is due to quantitative easing. The UK is of course doing this too. At the moment the velocity of money has massively reduced, so the inflation is not aparent in consumer prices...YET. Merry xmas! JP.
  10. Sounds bad.....you know I'm bordering on the "run for the hills with all the beans and fuel you can carry" brigade, but this does sound ominous. Seems like money printing will be the only route out of all this. Did you listen to the four inflation vs deflation debates on Financial Sense? On that subject, Jim and John read out and answered a question that I called in with. Go to http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html and listen about 47 minuets in to 3b (q-calls). James
  11. I used to enjoy coming on here for a quick browse of the latest threads. I could run my eyes down the page and quickly and easily pick out items of interest. Now it just looks like something that was done on a Commodore 64.....blocky, clumsy and basically just rubbish. I for one will be browsing less, if at all. Traffic will be down I'm sure.
  12. I think at least for the next year we wont see big hikes in money supply, but I would be a bit concerned about holding all my assets in cash (or bonds) beyond about a year. The big question as far as this forum is concerned is whether or not that extra money will feed into house prices. My feeling is that for the next couple of years we'll tend to see essential (cash bought) living items such as food and energy go up, whilst things which require leverage (cars & houses) will remain under considerable downward pressure. At some point (when that will be, who knows) it will be a great move to buy a house with a 5 year fixed rate mortgage. Judging that time when the bond market has not yet got a sniff of inflation will be the key. My head hurts just thinking about all this stuff.
  13. OK, most people on here seem to be in the inflation camp, whilst the government is waring us of the dangers of dreaded deflation. We have been seeing a massive default / deleveraging at the consumer and corporate level. This rush to cash has given rise to all of the deflation hype. Maybe broad money supply (M4) which includes all money created by fractional reserve banking system has indeed fallen, I dont have the links to reliable data on this, but thats whats being suggested. The governmants and central banks have responded by printing (electronic) cash and feeding into the system in terms of loans to banks and corporations. Whils these amounts are eye-wateringly large they probably still dont totally compensate for the broad money supply drop, because the velocity of money has fallen off a cliff....everyone is just sitting on the cash. Problem comes when it is realised that money has been devalued and folk start to borrow and spend again. When leverage returns (and it will at some point) it will be off a much larger narrow money supply (M2) base. Once fractional reserve banking goes to work on this much larger money base we will see huge growth in broad money supply (and hence price inflation). In which areas this inflation will manifest itself in terms of price rises is another arguement.
  14. I used to study at Warwick and know the area very well. I still have friends in the region and visit there a few times a year. Consider Kenilworth. You dont have to use the A46 to get to the uni, so travel would be a doddle. Its large enough to have the few shops / pubs / curry houses etc, but has a nice relaxed feel. Plenty of places to take the family on sunny days....parks, castle etc. Dont know about gardens & prices, sorry. Dont rule out Coventry....not the city centre of course....and some of the outer regions are just dire, but I have a friend who lives in a VERY nice house & neighbourhood a stones throw from the uni.....as you meet the A45 from the Westwood end of the site. To be honest, Leamington can be a bit of a snarly commute at rush hours (but nothing horrendous).....the town of Warwick may be easier and might serve your needs better. Hope this helps. J.
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