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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by jpidding

  1. Can't believe all the stuff that's been dragged up on this thread since I started it. I lived through the crash of the early 90's and from around 2000 to 2019 I was waiting for another one so I could snap up a bargain and stick it to the idiots who over-leveraged. September 11th hit and I thought that would crash things....the opposite happened...CB's pumped a load of money....houses went up. The US housing bubble peaked in 2006 and I thought the UK would soon follow. The financial crisis of 08 hit and I thought that this would cause lenders to be more prudent....what happened...the CB's printed a load more money, gave it to the banks and after going a bit "soft" for a while housing started climbing albeit slowly. COVID hit us (just after I bought) and I thought ****, this is defo gonna crash the market and inexplicably it was off to the races again. At the end of the day its about the IR's that borrowers have to pay...nothing else....zip! If the current bout of inflation leads to significant rate rises then the market will undoubtedly fall. My feeling is that it may happen but the government / BOE will step in to save the borrowers (don't forget the government is the biggest borrower of all) at the expense of savers. Is it right? No! I'm just going on my 20 years of watching what the powers that be do. I hope there is a significant correction to allow the good prudent savers on this site to be able to buy without leveraging to the hilt. As I said before, at age 52 I'm out of the game now. I'm fixed for the next 13 years on a repayment mortgage at 60% LTV. Good luck friends, with what ever you decide to do! I sincerely mean that. JP.
  2. Spain was a totally different situation to the UK unfortunately. During the boom leading up to 08 they were building more stuff than the rest of EU combined! Our government seem to drag their feet when passing any legislation to make companies build on the land available for development.
  3. Unfortunately I don't think that the BOE / government will allow rates to rise much regardless of inflation...they are wedded to keeping all the bubbles blown. They will keep fudging the statistics, dragging their feet, feeding us BS about transitory inflation etc etc. If you fix a low rate, have a decent deposit and can afford the repayments with some to spare, then money printing / inflation will take care of things for you. Its a sad state of affairs where savers are punished with negative real rates to the benefit of borrowers. I was fed up with getting angry about it and saw something I liked, could afford and suited my needs. If you decide to sit tight, make sure you put your fiat into something inflation proof. Silver is by far the most under-valued asset in the world and has excellent upside potential in an inflationary world that is going electric. Just a pity that the spreads to buy physical are so wide (esp in the UK where VAT is added on new coins / bars).
  4. The market had definitely gone a bit soft. Previous owners bought it in 2015 for £380k. As I said, they tried initially for £440k. They had a sale agreed at £425k but it fell through. The place had been on the market for 9 months or so with two different agents. When I saw it they had already dropped to £425k. I initially offered £390k, then after they dropped to £415k I offered £400k and stood firm. I would have paid £425k if they'd have played hardball.
  5. There's already an en suite...just needs re-doing. And yes, I clean everything myself!
  6. No, it was converted in 1989. Got to meet the architect who developed the 6 properties. He got shafted cos of the 1990-94 crash. He lived in one of the houses until last year when he died.
  7. Cheers. I've done the right thing for me, but of course wish I'd done it sooner....in the same way I wish I'd bought bitcoin many years ago (I have an email conversation with a mate when we were discussing whether to chuck £10k into bitcoin when it pulled back from $1500 to $300!). I've lived in this house for coming up to 2.5 years and am now planning a new en suite and some other renovations. I'll probable be here til I die so money spent now will be well worth it. If anyone cares to check, I'm not a troll...I've been on this site since early 2000's. Look up my historic posts. I used to be and still am a bear on the sustainability of house prices vs incomes. The market can stay irrational for far longer than you think.
  8. You're right...the HPC site is very niche compared to mainstream media. Nothing posted on here will make cent's worth of difference to the market. I'm not trying to troll or piss anyone off by gloating. I could have bought 20 years ago but didn't. I feel really sorry for those who are priced out of the market and are forced to stay in rented. My mother tried to persuade me to spruce up the previous rented place. She suggested some new curtains for the living room. Decent ones were over £500!!! ****** spending that kinda money on someone else's place. So I stayed in the same place with the crappy decor. I was lucky enough that in 2019 the market had softened a bit through Brexit. initially the sellers wanted £440k I ended up getting it for £400. I simply can't imagine why the market seems to have gone up 10% in 2020 and 21. Its madness. By the way, buying a house on my own was about the most stressful and complicated project of my life so far. I'd accumulated so much junk that had to be sorted and taken to the tip. Organising the finance was a lot of hoops to jump through. Another thing to note....I am convinced that only interest rate rises will soften / crash the market. If COVID couldn't dampen sentiment, nothing will. If prices do fall it will be because rates have risen significantly. If I had waited a few more years, maybe I would have got the place for £300k, but the 15 year fix would probably be at 5%+. Total repaid on the mortgage would be no different.
  9. Not on here to do anything except shar my experience of the last 20+ years. My payments are fixed for the next 13 years regardless of IR changes. I got very frustrated with the way the BOE and government refused to let interest rates rise and reduce house prices. I was a saver until 2006 when I moved into PM's. Now I'm more convinced than ever that the government will do all it can to save the borrowers at the expense of the savers. Raising rates from 0.25% to 0.5% in an environment where inflation is at 5+% and due to rise further will do nothing of stop it. Same in the US where inflation measured by the pre-Boskin report changes is at 15%!!! They're talking about 4 quarter point rises this year to get to 1%!!! The powers that be will burn the currency to keep things afloat. Sure, this will cause a bigger problem later on but they just care about the next few years until the election. At the end of the day I'm now out of the game. I have a house I can easily afford and nothing can change that. I have savings / investments that could pay off the mortgage tomorrow but I wont because I'll do better borrowing at a 2.55% fix over 15 years and watching inflation run away. If there is a crisis in 3 years and house prices fall in half I wont care. I'm really not here to gloat or annoy anyone, but lets say prices keep rising then fall 50% That would likely be a fall from £600k to £300k. So by waiting another 5/6 years I might have been able to snap up a bargain at age 55. It would honestly have been worth the 5 years living in a place I like than the shitty rented places I was in. I remember in 2004 / 5 / 6 tearing my hair out watching house prices go up by stupid amounts...I honestly used to lose sleep. Everyone has to make their own decisions...I'm just giving my tuppence worth.
  10. Not married, no kids, so am more flexible than most.
  11. After literally waiting 20 years for a decent pull back, I'd finally had enough of renting and started looking for a place in early 2019. Ended up buying a beautiful converted barn just outside a nice town in the midlands for 400k (at the age of 50). Could have bought outright but didn't wanna liquidate the assets so put down 162k and mortgaged the rest over 19 years with a 15 year fix at 2.55% on a repayment basis. Payments are £1320 a month vs £875 renting a much shittier place. I couldn't believe it when a few months after moving in in Nov 2019 that the world went into a global crisis. Was sure that this would have been the pin to pop the housing bubble, but incomprehensively they're gone up 10% for each of the last 2 years. I would have been beside myself if I had waited and not bought. All this on top of Brexit which should have freed up a lot of housing supply. Markets are just ridiculously fickle things which defy logic. I still think there will be a large pullback someday, but can't wait around for it. I love the place I'm in and have spent time and money improving it. This will be my forever home probably. The size, location and type of house suits me perfectly, just wish I had done it in 2001 or so. I feel for all the people waiting out there for the pullback. My advice would be that if you're in your 20's, 30's, 40's or even 50's, building up a deposit waiting for a pullback then buy something small and cheap as possible in the meantime. Maybe a one or two bed flat or small semi in a not-so-perfect area. OK, might not be what you finally want but you will enjoy having something you own and can improve rather than improving someone else's property. Then, when there is a decent pullback you'll still be in a position to take advantage of it. Alternatively if the pullback never comes you wont have felt like you were in limbo for so long. In many ways renting was good to me...I moved around from county to country for work, but would have liked to have had some sort of base back in the UK. If you decide you're going to be away for an extended period you could rent it out which covers you're rent somewhere else. Good luck friends.
  12. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-29/latest-bubble-hong-kong-parking-space-sells-double-average-us-home-price One tenth of this would be huge bubble territory. Just amazing.
  13. I think social unrest is inevitable. Greece is gonna be an interesting test case.
  14. I have about €100k with them. Until a few weeks ago they were giving me 4.55% gross. They have just dropped that to 0.5%. Now with this news there's big incentive to move it somewhere else.
  15. Thanks...its slightly miss quoted....did it from memory....its a classic innit?
  16. ....borrowing costs go up significantly. This probably wont happen by the BoE's MPC....they are too tethered by politics...they only have "independance" when house prices are booming and everything's rosey. It will have to happen by the markets forcing the issue by losing an appetite for sterling gov bonds. Once this happens all other rates will climb up too. I have wondered how prices could stay high relative to wages in the worst recession since the great depression. The simple answer is IR's. People are idiots and do not seem to have the ability to consider repaying the capital. People only think about what they can get now. They assume inflation will kick in and wages will rise. If they can survive the next 5-10 years then they'll be on easy street. I cant really see wage inflation any time soon. Government spending and hence public sector jobs will HAVE to be cut. This will not happen before the election, but when it does, the headwind in the jobs market will remove the ability of workers to push for pay rises. Add into the equation the fact that energy (and hence everything else) are becoming scarcer, whilst Chinese growth continues at 10% or so, and you'll have an amazing squeeze on disposable income. House prices WILL fall one way or another. The worry is that IR's are held down so long by QE that our precious deposits are whittled away. For this reason you need to have at least 50% in something tangible....preferable precious metals. I think the seeds for large falls will be sown this year, but you wont see it til 2011. JP
  17. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/buy-to-let/article.html?in_article_id=498582&in_page_id=56 Rentals are the liquid end of the market. Contracts are much more flexible and short in duration compared to buying, hence the market reacts to supply / demand imbalances much faster. "House rents fall 5% in just two months" Yelds falling is a great indicator. JP
  18. I visited Venezuelan island Isla Margarita 5 years ago...Chevez was just being re-elected. Most people liked his socialist style and at the time I felt sympathy for his socialist activities....nationalising the big oil companies "for the benefit of the people". Now he seems to be losing it. He will cause terrible shortages and drive a huge black market with his policies of currency devaluation and price controls... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8451056.stm There will be a revolt at some point I'm sure as people go hungry and social order breaks down. JP.
  19. Last time I looked gold was at $1100 or so. So according to your calculations it will rise another 2.5 fold? Thats not what I call "near the peak". Also those inflation adjusted calculations use "official" inflation stats. If you use the shadow stats you get an adjusted figure of more like $5000. If you use an adjustment based upone money supply growth vs available gold growth you get astronomical numbers.....well above $20,000. I agree gold will one day be in a bubble, but it has ceratinly not gone mainstream yet. How many people discuss their gold holdings at dinner parties, or which junior mining stock is about to go into production? JP.
  20. OK, here's my favourite....its a doozy as our american friends would say. If anyone doubts that we will have inflation, just look at the chart. Base money (from which the fractional reserve banking effect multiplies to give broad money supply) has gone up 2.5 fold in the US. This is due to quantitative easing. The UK is of course doing this too. At the moment the velocity of money has massively reduced, so the inflation is not aparent in consumer prices...YET. Merry xmas! JP.
  21. Sounds bad.....you know I'm bordering on the "run for the hills with all the beans and fuel you can carry" brigade, but this does sound ominous. Seems like money printing will be the only route out of all this. Did you listen to the four inflation vs deflation debates on Financial Sense? On that subject, Jim and John read out and answered a question that I called in with. Go to http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html and listen about 47 minuets in to 3b (q-calls). James
  22. I used to enjoy coming on here for a quick browse of the latest threads. I could run my eyes down the page and quickly and easily pick out items of interest. Now it just looks like something that was done on a Commodore 64.....blocky, clumsy and basically just rubbish. I for one will be browsing less, if at all. Traffic will be down I'm sure.
  23. I think at least for the next year we wont see big hikes in money supply, but I would be a bit concerned about holding all my assets in cash (or bonds) beyond about a year. The big question as far as this forum is concerned is whether or not that extra money will feed into house prices. My feeling is that for the next couple of years we'll tend to see essential (cash bought) living items such as food and energy go up, whilst things which require leverage (cars & houses) will remain under considerable downward pressure. At some point (when that will be, who knows) it will be a great move to buy a house with a 5 year fixed rate mortgage. Judging that time when the bond market has not yet got a sniff of inflation will be the key. My head hurts just thinking about all this stuff.
  24. OK, most people on here seem to be in the inflation camp, whilst the government is waring us of the dangers of dreaded deflation. We have been seeing a massive default / deleveraging at the consumer and corporate level. This rush to cash has given rise to all of the deflation hype. Maybe broad money supply (M4) which includes all money created by fractional reserve banking system has indeed fallen, I dont have the links to reliable data on this, but thats whats being suggested. The governmants and central banks have responded by printing (electronic) cash and feeding into the system in terms of loans to banks and corporations. Whils these amounts are eye-wateringly large they probably still dont totally compensate for the broad money supply drop, because the velocity of money has fallen off a cliff....everyone is just sitting on the cash. Problem comes when it is realised that money has been devalued and folk start to borrow and spend again. When leverage returns (and it will at some point) it will be off a much larger narrow money supply (M2) base. Once fractional reserve banking goes to work on this much larger money base we will see huge growth in broad money supply (and hence price inflation). In which areas this inflation will manifest itself in terms of price rises is another arguement.
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