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House Price Crash Forum


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About verolution

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  1. I think the poll is broken. It is missing the obvious option of taking him out the back and putting a bullet in his head.
  2. I know logic isn't a strong point for most lefties, but try this one out for size: minimum wage = more unemployment no minimum wage = less unemployment hope this helps
  3. Hamish here is some simple logic that hopefully you can follow: early 2000's: financial engineers create a load of derivatives (MBS, CDS, RMBS etc etc) that somehow "do away" with risk 2000-2007: aforementioned risk is reduced massively in cost as people believe the financial engineers, this lowering of risk encourages laxer lending standards fueling a massive boom in house prices. 2007: everyone realises the emperor has no clothes, and that actually the risk never disappeared. derivatives are seen for the sham they always were. house prices crash. THESE DERIVATIVES WILL NEVER COME BACK ON THE SAME SCALE AS BEFORE. 2007> house prices readjust to a market where liar loans, 8x salary mortgages, mortgages for dogs, mortgages for people called Hamish who live in a box ARE NO LONGER, AND NEVER WILL BE, AVAILABLE AGAIN. as a result house prices revert to a reasonable mean of around 4x salary. hope this helps.
  4. It is called creative destruction... Are you suggesting we should allow less than efficiently run business prosper at the expense of well run ones? Some people on this site really don't have a f u c k i n g clue.
  5. Cmon this drop is obviously all attributable to MP's spending less in the wake of the expenses scandal
  6. There is no doubt in my mind that IT has improved productivity IF you have the skills to utilize it. For instance I'm a techie who works in marketing. Without any assistance I can take huge datasets, parse them using perl scripts, upload the data to a database, query it, model it in STATA / SPSS etc - basically I can probably achieve in one day what would have taken someone a month to do 30 years ago.
  7. Here is the reality: a ) greedy banks conned and scammed stupid people so that they could collect fat bonuses b ) investors realize its all a ponzi scheme and the banks start collapsing c ) greedy banks get bailed out so that they can get more fat bonuses d ) the stupid people they scammed are f*cked in the ass again by the greedy bankers as they repo their houses I think it is pretty obvious who is at fault here.
  8. It is a bit harsh to criticise the OP. Tantamount to taking the piss out of disabled people IMHO. The sad fact is a lot people aren't too bright, especially when it comes to finance, and even though they should know better they either lack the education, intelligence, or both. The real villains in this are the people who should know better, i.e. the banks, the government, the mortgage brokers etc. But whilst they are out still collecting bonuses, less than intelligent people like this are having their lives ruined. Maybe it is time to get the burning pitchforks out.
  9. Sadly I wouldn't be overly surprised if this chap turns up having comitted 'suicide' in the near future.
  10. Anymore ******** and mickey mousery from Brown and co. and this country will be finished. Anyone capable to will leave, and houses will be worth next to nothing. If we end up like a deflationary version of Zimbabwe (which is looking more likely by the day) 100% falls aren't out of the question.
  11. Been here from the start, my confidence has wavered on and off - but its always been a question of when not if. The problem with making predictions is there are far too many externalities, no one can know what will be just round the corner. For instance, back in mid '05 most people here were confident the market was falling on its ass, then "BAM" out of the blue the BOE cut in August '05 - re-inflating the market. They did so despite their remit being inflation not growth, you just can't predict actions like these - which is why its so hard to time this, or any, market correctly.
  12. By some very rough calculations using the rebuild calculator at http://calculator.bcis.co.uk/, the land value of my parents house (SE London) is approx 400k out of a ~500k 'value'. That would suggest if land values fall 50% their house would be 'worth' ~300k, which seems like a pretty realistic drop to me.
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