Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Father Fred

New Members
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Father Fred

  1. "Government were encouraging BTL " [my words] is not the same as "government made me do it" [your lies]. The former is a background reason (I would not have bought a BTL had government not been encouraging it by allowing BTL mortgages, but it was my decision to do it) whereas the latter falsely states causation and implies regret.
  2. I did not say that the government made me do it. Its pretty pathetic lying about what people say. Government deliberately created circumstances which encouraged people like me to do it. Whether or not you like it they encouraged me to BTL and my net wealth and post tax income over the last 16 years has been higher as a result. I do feel somewhat bad for the tiny marginal effect my participation in the market has had on people like you, but I think you should blame government and not me. Besides, I doubt that you will be offering to subsidise my pension in the future if I fall on hard time
  3. I am less sure of what will happen to prices than I have been for years (not that I have always been right). Nationally I have not a clue because I don't really follow national prices, and besides an average which includes PCL, outer London, smart towns in the SE, houses in former mining towns, failing industrial towns etc is a bit meaningless. Where I know best - East London - I'd perhaps argure that prices were fair in 2001 and maybe until 2003. 2004 they got high and by 2007 insane. SInce then we have had a correction and a massive bounce back. I would probably argue that price
  4. You make a good point. To follow up - (1) By your rationale government policy would be quite happy with an outcome where BTL lending ended but hedge funds stepped in to buy up all BTL properties and more, making the overall lot of would-be FTBs worse. (2) Do you think that any government would "proactively engineer a deflation of the housing bubble" given the harm it would do to leveraged OOs (and HAs who borrow, and bank blanace sheets etc etc). They might wish house price stability for decades to restore balance but I don't think they actively want falls. If the priority is the
  5. Two totally separate issues. People making life choices that I wouldn't. Not ideal but its their life. Secondly the possibility of damage to financial insitutions... that possibility clearly needs addressing. Won't happen sensibly under the tories.
  6. I don't think that the problem is BTLers - the problem is that even the relatively very good new labour government was neo-liberal, and as a result we have had shit government policy and severe underspending for 35 years. I would rather you didn't blame me, but I honestly don't care if you do. I blame tory economic and social policy for decades, including to a large extent under new labour. I blame the tories and people who vote tory... not that the realistic alternatives have been much of an alternative.
  7. Where have I moaned about anything other than it is unfair that debt-free landlords are not facing the same increases in tax? Where have I said that this alleged unfairness is comparable to the unfairness of having been priced out? [Getting into a hierarchy of unfairness is not something I wish to do but I would say helping those who need it and taxing the richest is an obvious start]. Those Dr Ros emails are priceless. I am 100% on the side of the academic (the only one capable of coherent thought IMHO). I love how P118ers seem to love HPCs cos they're buying opportunities an
  8. Venger. I agree with much of what you, dgul and neverwhere have said. Can't reply to it all!
  9. Venger - I can see your point of view that I have taken two homes from possible owner occupation. But I am able to treat my tenants fairly within the system - ASTs do not force landlords to put the rent up every year or regularly kick out tenants. You criticised me for entering an immoral market. I can hold my head up high and say that my current long term tenants are VERY happy. And they know that I wouldn't hold them to the one month notice period if they had reason to want to leave immediately. I have always told them I have no desire to have an unhappy tenant. When I have compla
  10. Either way its in the system now so Landlords with mortgages will have to pay the very high marginal property taxes. Either way its in the system now so many Landlords with mortgages will have to pay the very high marginal property taxes or go bust.
  11. "Its been a long time but iirc you have one rental in East London you bought a long time ago and were very left wing. I dont understand how someone can think doing x is wrong yet do it anyway. " You recall correctly though things have changed a bit since then. I am back because S24 and Brexit might be the trigger for a crash... having spent the last 7 or 8 years thinking we may have got away with it (decades of zero IRs, growth, inflation and HPI was my prediction, but Brexit and S24 change that). I do not think that there is anything wrong with doing the best one can for one's fami
  12. Funny you should say that Parkwell, but I was thinking just before I read your reply how I can see that many priced out FTBs and other tenants might well take the view that S24 is a good thing even if it brings carnage that spreads well beyond solely affecting landlords. Decades of neo-liberalism and it is inevitable that people make desperate destructive choices. (Brexit, Trump, possibly tenants in favour of S24. To be clear I don't think S24 will be bad for tenants generally, and for many it may enable them to buy at a sensible price... but it is another example - IMHO - of a risky policy
  13. I have tried to get to grips with S24 over the last couple of years and I think I have with regards my own circumstances. I might well come back to that later. Googling again I have just seen this summary which I would like to think is fairly accurate. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy/buy-to-let-calculator-how-will-new-tax-reduce-your-profit/ Smith & Williamson has calculated that any higher-rate taxpayer landlord whose mortgage interest is 75pc or more of their rental income, net of other expenses, will see all of their returns wiped out by 2020. So mortgage costs abov
  14. I should not have mentioned S24 in this thread. This thread is about policies to help tenants. I can see that S24 might well help many tenants. My point was that there are numerous things one can do to help tenants and first time buyers which are less of a blunt tool than S24. I will do S24 on another thread. I said 'Cap number of properties a person can own'. Venger said "No one forced you to buy up more than 1 home in the first place to rent out !!! " Erm - cap on numbers being for the benefit of society and potential first time buyers. I wasn't advocating it as a policy
  15. Venger. Did you try reading what I said, not what you thought I said? Life is not fair. I advocate making it fairer using left wing policies. Part of me would love an HPC. I said "house price crash (which would be destructive in some ways but a very good thing in many ways as well)". It would be good for people who are priced out. It would be good for society in many ways. It would be destructive for some people and some banks and other companies. I posted on this thread primarily to suggest that there are lots of things that could be done for tenants which are not S24.
  16. Background - I am a landlord. Not overly leveraged. Anyway, S24 makes some sense. Something needed to be done to redress the blatant imbalances in the totally not-at-all-free market for housing. But there are so many BETTER things that could have been done. A few ideas - (1) Security of tenure for tenants. Make tenancy agreements 10 year minimum (no problem if you are a landlord - someone who is in the business of renting out property long term). 1 month notice for tenants AT ANY TIME. 3 months notice from landlords after 3 years so long as they are willing to pay the tenant
  17. Anyone else lost in a world without joy or common sense, forced to travel to long forgotten lands where the cries of lunatics can be heard echoing around the valleys of discontent?
  18. So, after a long gap I log on to HPC and the first thing I see is utter drivel. If you want to comment on Office rents then I suggest that you find graphs that refer to offices. Whilst it is not a good thing for the economy that INDUSTRIAL SPACE is so high in London, I would remiond you that industry is a pretty minor part of the UK economy, especially in the capital.
  19. "Another rule of thumb is that a fair house price is 125 times the monthly rent." I don't know whether you have thought about that statement. Why 125? Why not 88, or 122, or 135? Please enlighten me. EDIT: I say 150 (assuming government turns against BTLers and we are not entering a new paradigm).
  20. (1) So you are saying "low" interest rates raise asset prices (other things being equal), and "high" interest rates lower asset prices (other things being equal)? Makes sense. But there is no direct correlation (ie one month interest rates fall but this does not have a direct affect, it takes time for asset prices to respond)? (2) You correctly (I think) point out that unemployment has a greater correlation with house prices than interest rates. As interest rates are used to slow the economy (increase unemployment - or the fear of unemployment which has a similar if less pronounced affec
  21. Superb. Second only to the "this time it's different" camp in stupidity are the people who assume things willll always stay the same. (1) "Inflation and interest rates have been "low" for as long as we have records, except for the "blip" period of 30 years starting in the 60's." or (2) "Inflation and interest rates have been "low" for as long as we have records, except for the last 35-40 years when inflation became a major problem in the UK. There has been a short blip in hte last 5-10 years when interest rates have been abnormally low." Which is correct? Personally I think the truth
  22. Clearly it is completely intuitive that house prices are linked to affordability. Evidence of this is that (according to my own work using quarterly land registry data and national statistics office average wage data) 30% of changes in average real house prices can be explained by changes in real average wages (this correlation is just about significant). (The link is that changes in wages hit the house price figures 6 months later - again, quite intuitive) BUT. Can I just emphasize this. BUT, BUT, BUT... Can anyone show me that changes in interest rates have any link with changes in hou
  23. Before this drops off the page... anyone care to reply to my last post?
  24. I have heard that. This is absolutely disgraceful. Saying that, how stupid do you have to be to pay someone to make you an offer on your property.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.