Halifax Minus 2.4%

[rantnrave]

All three indices out this week. Last month, Halifax came out with a whopping 2.2% MoM rise (even more without seasonal adjusting) that even they had difficulty justifying. Big fall coming to counter that?

Would be 3/3 of the indices if it fell (admittedly the LR data is covering a different month). When was the last time all three fell in a row I wonder?

EDIT TO ADD: Forecast is for -0.4%

2nd Edit - Prediction Thread Updated with actual numbers

Edited May 4, 2012 by rantnrave

[Monkey]

I'm going for -3% its going to be big to counter the 2.2% last month. and bing 3.2% above Niationwides last month.

unless they adjust down last months to 0.2%, and then next month adjust the expected -0.4% to -1.4%. this is the thing to watch, the adjusting the previous figures

[Democorruptcy]

+1.3%

[koala_bear]

+1.3%

ditto but with last month revised down to -3.5%

[TheCountOfNowhere]

-2.2 %

[Harry Monk]

I'm always wrong so I'll go for a positive, +1.2%

[the flying pig]

most likely a fall if [as seems likely] the big increase last month included an element of error.

[Nationalist]

I'm going to go for 'we didn't do a mortgage this month so we can't tell you'.

Like it..

Reminds me of the Zimbabwe inflation rate. The "basket of goods" used to calculate RPI is empty, therefore inflation is zero.

[Reck B]

I'm going to go for 'we didn't do a mortgage this month so we can't tell you'.

I used all of the mortgage funds up last month with my £80,059 purchase.

Therefore I can confidently report it will definately be -50.00%

Edited May 3, 2012 by Reck B

[57percent]

This is the index I 'picked' from the start, so I'm sticking with it.

Has to be substantially down this month. Maybe a decent headline maker at a time when everything seems pretty bad at the moment.

I predict -2.8%

[jonboy2010]

-0.5% but hpoe its -5%

[Venger]

This is the index I 'picked' from the start, so I'm sticking with it.

Has to be substantially down this month. Maybe a decent headline maker at a time when everything seems pretty bad at the moment.

I predict -2.8%

-4.2% I'll go for.

[peahead]

-1.7% though willing it to be enough to take average price back under the £160k marker

[rantnrave]

MINUS 2.4%

GET IN THERE!

Edited May 4, 2012 by rantnrave

[Dancake]

-2.4!!!!

[Pent Up]

Excellent. Wiped out last month. Any revisions? Whats the full Numbers? Can't view the report as I'm abroad with no internet and I'm risking few quid on my mobile bill just to check the numbers this week!

[rantnrave]

Excellent. Wiped out last month. Any revisions? Whats the full Numbers? Can't view the report as I'm abroad with no internet and I'm risking few quid on my mobile bill just to check the numbers this week!

Can't access it yet...

[TheCountOfNowhere]

-2.4!!!!

Can I claim nearest prediciton even thought it was tongue in cheek

[MrFlibble]

Lovely Jubbly...

That number will be hard to ignore by the MSM, fingers crossed

[Frank Hovis]

MINUS 2.4%

GET IN THERE!

What he said

Off to check the Daily Express website....

Edit: can't find it there, or anywhere else yet. Too early.

Edited May 4, 2012 by Frank Hovis

[rantnrave]

Full report here.

160K breached...

My link

[neil324]

[Dancake]

Key facts

House prices in the three months to April were 0.3% higher than in the preceding three months (November 2011-January 2012). This was the first increase in prices on this measure of the underlying trend since September 2011 (0.1%), following six successive falls.

On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 2.4% in April. This more than offset the previous month's 2.2% increase as prices continue to fluctuate month-to-month.

Prices in the three months to April were 0.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier. This measure of the annual rate improved slightly from -0.6% in March and showed the smallest fall in prices since October 2010 (+1.2%).

No change in the average UK house price so far this year. The UK average price in April 2012, at £159,883, was virtually the same as in December 2011 (£159,888).

[Guest]

The main page on the Halifax House Price Index - April 2012 page says this:

UK house price growth on an underlying basis remains relatively subdued, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.

Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:

"Prices in the three months to April were 0.3% higher than in the previous quarter, marking the first rise in this measure for seven months. Despite the slight improvement in the underlying trend in recent months, house prices continue to lack real direction with the current UK average price little different to where it was at the end of 2011. The monthly figures continue to fluctuate quite widely with a 2.4% decline in April, wiping out March's 2.2% rise.

"The ending of the stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers in late March appears to have boosted home sales early this year as buyers strove to beat the deadline, and has probably contributed to the volatility in house prices in the last few months.

"We continue to expect little overall movement in prices as the UK economic situation remains challenging."

Key facts

• House prices in the three months to April were 0.3% higher than in the preceding three months (November 2011-January 2012). This was the first increase in prices on this measure of the underlying trend since September 2011 (0.1%), following six successive falls.
  
• On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 2.4% in April. This more than offset the previous month's 2.2% increase as prices continue to fluctuate month-to-month.
  
• Prices in the three months to April were 0.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier. This measure of the annual rate improved slightly from -0.6% in March and showed the smallest fall in prices since October 2010 (+1.2%).
  
• No change in the average UK house price so far this year. The UK average price in April 2012, at £159,883, was virtually the same as in December 2011 (£159,888).
  

[thecrashingisles]

An annualised rate of decline of 25%.