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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Nationalist

  1. Initial impressions..... 1. First budget ever that spends more than £1 trillion. 2. Includes £233 billion borrowing.
  2. Pandemics are good for wages. The Black Death triggered a major rise in peasant lifestyle.
  3. If China tries anything militarily all its assets in the West will be confiscated. These assets are land, buildings, ports, factories and the like. They cannot be moved or concealed. The CCP must know this. China now has too much to lose to try anything. China needs its house of cards to stay up, so all large Chinese companies will be bailed out. Debt any company owes to the Chinese government is very soft. The govt will just let it ride. It's not a problem. The real problem is dollar denominated debt. This amounts to approx US$2.5 trillion. But China holds six trillion of American and other western gilts. It's covered. China can bail out its big corps.
  4. I'm WFH solidly now. I think it's time to get a side hustle. (And I'm probably late to this party.) Something that can be done online since there's no supervision. It's the company's choice really - even when they had the office open it was hard to keep people off Facebook etc, now there's no stopping anyone. Only question, what to do? Not actual employment, though, but run a website or the like. Ideas?
  5. TBH, with HPI factored in, it doesn't matter if a house is appraised above market value - the true value will soon overtake the appraisal.
  6. If countries raise their IRs and the UK does not, then our very old friend "Sterling Crisis" returns. A falling pound would mean oil and gas even more expensive. UK base rate was 17% in 1980. Today it's 0.1%. By rights it should be heading back up to double digit territory, but it can't - too much debt. There could be no way out for the government. Another credit crunch is likely, because when cash is king no one wants to part with it.
  7. The UK will never run out of money - the govt owns the printers. The problem is the inflation that comes from creating every more money. To fight inflation they must raise interest rates, but they cannot because of the massive indebtedness. It's clear the govt will not fight inflation - in two ways (1) they use a measure of inflation which does not reflect what people actually need (houses, food, etc) and (2) they will relax the allowable bounds - atm the target is 2% CPI, but they do nothing when it exceeds 3%. Expect a more generous target, 5%.
  8. Facebook is well down and so are the other sites they own: Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger. Somehow mobile networks have become affected, esp EE. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10057949/Facebook-Instagram-Facebook-Messenger-DOWN.html Staff are locked out of the Facebook HQ building in CA.
  9. ...good, but I also want zombies. This pandemic has had far too few zombies so far.
  10. Yes, it's massive...... 14 compromised law firms (how did they manage that?) 11.9 million documents US$32 trillion of hidden money The scale is incredible.
  11. New law: "All property now belongs to its current occupier. If vacant it belongs to the State." Where do I vote?
  12. Foreigners are carving up the UK like a Sunday roast. It's actually quite difficult to know how to stop them. If they were taxed more they would just pass the costs through to their tenants. Maybe the proposed register of beneficial owners would deter them, because they are looking to stash cash for when they are kicked out of their own countries. Chinese billionaires would be especially loathe to buy here if they know their names were going on a register - it would be deemed unpatriotic in Beijing, a situation requiring "re-education".
  13. State pension + Minimum Income Guarantee Ideally, she would also get into social housing where they don't evict you for being poor.
  14. Last night at 10pm, queued for 25 mins at a Surrey Sainsburys and then filled my 60 litre tank. Real problem was there was a line to pay - only 1 of 4 tills was manned. Queues at the till means queues outside.
  15. There is nothing in this situation that would make house prices go up. And the opposite of up is down.
  16. I remember this from the 90s crash. The gifted deposit keeps the numbers going to the Land Registry high so valuations on other properties in the development are not affected. There's probably a stamp duty downside which did not really exist in the 90s though, especially if you are into a new band thanks to the "gift".
  17. Nah, you don't understand business. Having improved profit by cutting costs the board will be entitled to bonuses. Shareholders reward results , you know.
  18. They may be locking in the low IRs in expectation of a serious hike within a few years, at which point they will be able to buy the bonds back at a fraction of the £0.75bn they paid. If they can't, they'll roll it over until they can.
  19. The admin required would be enormous if there were no zero-band for CGT. HMHC would collapse under the weight of all the paper if you had to declare the smallest gain on anything.
  20. If you want to export some money, say to the USA, buy an Amazon gift voucher (from amazon.com, not .co.uk) and send it to an American. Said voucher can then be used by the recipient to buy just about anything, including gold coins.
  21. Realistically, in a bank run you need paper money, not gold or bitcoin. The shops will take paper - there will be no mechanism by which they can take gold. You would need to go via a pawn broker and they would smell your need. Gold is for TEOTWAWKI.
  22. Everything looks good because of immigration. More people means more people employed, and a higher GDP. Immigration also forces up house prices which causes mewing and stimulates the economy artificially. Real wages have been stagnant for a decade. Wages adjusted for house prices have fallen off a cliff.
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