Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[ccc]

On a political note - the Conservatives [And Labour if they were in power] will clearly support any area not in Scotland for the focus of this work. Would end the SNP's dream of Independence for a long long time.

And their reasoning for it - which would actually stand up to scrutiny - is that Aberdeen has had the fortune to be where it was for the last 40 years and reaped the rewards - now is the time for someplace else to get a piece of it.

[cashinmattress]

On a political note - the Conservatives [And Labour if they were in power] will clearly support any area not in Scotland for the focus of this work. Would end the SNP's dream of Independence for a long long time.

And their reasoning for it - which would actually stand up to scrutiny - is that Aberdeen has had the fortune to be where it was for the last 40 years and reaped the rewards - now is the time for someplace else to get a piece of it.

Yeah, that's kind of what I was saying, just not so directly or bluntly. England remembers...

And as for the North Sea now, the 'tax cut' won't make a bean of difference to the just under 50% estimated E&P's out there making losses or just breaking even.

It's only a tax cut on profits.

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-03-16/north-sea-oil-tax-cut-may-not-make-difference/

https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/104189/north-sea-tax-cut-dissapointing/

So no magic bullet unfortunately.

And more job cuts.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/210556/oil-amp-gas-stock-roundup-companies-reveal-more-job-cuts

http://www.businessfinancenews.com/28217-offshore-drillers-resort-to-layoffs-as-depressed-crude-environment-persists/

Etc...

[Palangot]

So the outcome of the budget is a tax cut for the few companies that are making a profit.

But it offers not much in terms of market intervention or infrastructure spend.

Times look tough in Aberdeen and the oil industry in general

[cashinmattress]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35831350

North Sea producer EnQuest sees losses double

Ouch.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12196260/North-Sea-oil-to-post-losses-of-1-billion-a-year.html

North Sea oil to post losses of £1 billion a year

The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts tax receipts will remain “negative” by up to £1.2 billion a year between 2016 and 2021 because of repayments to loss-making operators.

Amazing accounting 'tricks' to show 'negative' tax receipts?

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14348836.Drop_in_the_ocean___North_Sea_tax_cuts__dwarfed__as_profits_dry_up/

Drop in the ocean?: North Sea tax cuts 'dwarfed' as profits dry up

IT has been seen as a last throw of a dice for an ailing industry, but experts have questioned whether George Osborne's tax shake-up can do anything to counter the collapse in oil price.

No fix in. Osborne kicks the man when he's down?

The real problem for the North Sea and especially Aberdeen is that the speculative capital is gone... for a long time and even forever.

Evidence of this is the really sh1t 'topsides' show going on at the moment. A total waste of time.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/103331/topsides-uk-north-sea-must-take-easyjet-approach-cost-effective-future/

Topsides UK: North Sea must take “Easyjet” approach to cost effective future

The oil and gas sector must get used to taking the “Easyjet” option for North Sea projects if it is to cut costs to a sustainable level, according to a senior supply chain executive.

Amec’s Craig Shanaghey, asset support, late life and decommissioning operations Director for Amec Foster Wheeler, said the no-frills budget airline approach to getting to a destination provided a good example of stripping out the “value-add” items that have contributed to North Sea oil lifting costs being some of most expensive in the world.

Oh great. However, Amec already runs like Easyjet. Cheap 'no frills' at first glance, but with many restrictions and 'extras' quickly turning a venture it into a frustrating, delayed, expensive and very rarely fulfilling experience.

So..

The downward 'blip' we've had so far will turn into a big bust.

Are you ready?

Oh yeah. I see that our local P1ss and J1zz rag is posting advertising dressed up as 'editorial/lifestyle' news fluff... pimping a pokey Stonehaven sandstone rowhouse for £470 fecking thousand squid!! FFS.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/lifestyle/home/861479/act-fast-want-live-beside-seaside-lovely-home/

"Act fast"....

Right on that there Laura... thanks for the 'tip'.

Pretty obvious why the local papers aren't reporting anything of substance WRT to the ongoing bust, innit?

Edited March 17, 2016 by cashinmattress

[Palangot]

£470,000 is not that much to pay for an idyllic family home. Amazing value, it'll be gone in hours.

What do you expect for under half a million pounds?

[AD14]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/863675/has-the-bottom-fallen-out-of-the-hmo-market-in-aberdeen/

Aberdeen City Council to look into capping the number of HMOs.

[Barnsey]

Are you ready?

Oh yeah. I see that our local P1ss and J1zz rag is posting advertising dressed up as 'editorial/lifestyle' news fluff... pimping a pokey Stonehaven sandstone rowhouse for £470 fecking thousand squid!! FFS.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/lifestyle/home/861479/act-fast-want-live-beside-seaside-lovely-home/

Right on that there Laura... thanks for the 'tip'.

Pretty obvious why the local papers aren't reporting anything of substance WRT to the ongoing bust, innit?

The dreadful song I'm Blue by Eiffel 65 comes to mind looking at that, which is exactly what you'll be feeling when prices crash immediately after you've just commited to 25 years of debt slavery for your dream home in Stonie!

Oddly enough if you can bear to listen to the chorus of that song it sounds like "I'm blue, Aberdeen, I would die, Aberdeeeeeen I would die"

Thanks as always cashinmattress for your epic updates!

[Bear Hug]

Oh yeah. I see that our local P1ss and J1zz rag is posting advertising dressed up as 'editorial/lifestyle' news fluff... pimping a pokey Stonehaven sandstone rowhouse for £470 fecking thousand squid!! FFS.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/lifestyle/home/861479/act-fast-want-live-beside-seaside-lovely-home/

Right on that there Laura... thanks for the 'tip'.

Pretty obvious why the local papers aren't reporting anything of substance WRT to the ongoing bust, innit?

Best part of that advert for me is: "...the impressive light fitting which completes the room’s look will be included in the £470,000 starting price"

I guess the light fitting is worth at least £400,000. That would explain the price.

[babo456]

I can't remember exactly where but new build "luxury" flats om aspc around 200k for a one bed with the same statement no less than three times saying "Realisticly priced"..... seriously. I just had to laugh. Like saying it three times will brain wash me! Well I can only get a mortgage of 130k so I'm stuffed anyway!

[babo456]

I made a mistake the exact wording was "Realisticaly priced opportunity".... an opportunity for what!!! A nice loss when the market surely has to drop?

[delboypass]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3497724/Oil-crisis-rocked-Granite-City-Wednesday-North-Sea-got-1bn-tax-boost-save-Aberdeen.html

Oil crisis that rocked the Granite City: On Wednesday the North Sea got a £1bn tax boost – but will this save Aberdeen?

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3497724/Oil-crisis-rocked-Granite-City-Wednesday-North-Sea-got-1bn-tax-boost-save-Aberdeen.html#ixzz43D6BjfuQ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

[TheCountOfNowhere]

"195% rise in house prices from 2000 to 2015"

Come back in 2020 with it's house prices down 50% since 2000.

What is wrong with British people and house prices.

No wonder the car industry used to call the UK treasure island...an island full of idiots willing to pay well over the odds for s**t that no one elsewhere would even buy

[Palangot]

Have a look at when in the last 15 years prices rose most.

I would guess that the majority of buyers in Aberdeen over the last 15 years will end up worse off than you'd imagine.

If you bought before 2006 then you'll be fine but with at times no property being for sale in Aberdeen for less than £100k, there will be a lot of people who are going to lose money.

the biggest losers will be those who bought 2007+, doubled down when prices were rising and bought a bigger "family home", IO mortgage, remortgage to fund the lifestyle that they deserved and are holding onto their jobs or out of work.

If you moved here for a job but didn't buy, then you can at least move in with your life.

As has been pointed out here, there are people with skills which are not to much in demand elsewhere in the world of work. If you are a geologist or rock doctor, where else can you work? Likewise for offshore scaffolders and onshore planners. It's a very scary prospect to be in those positions right now.

The industry won't die, production will continue but wages need to drop and that means accepting that Aberdeen is not special and this will mean house prices need to drop.

[quine]

Anyone else heard the rumour that Schlumberger are about to take over Subsea 7 ?

[quine]

ha...love it... "insentives"

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/330399/37r--Kings-Gate/Aberdeen/

"INSENTIVES AVAILABLE CONTACT SIMPSON & MARWICK."

[AD14]

Anyone else heard the rumour that Schlumberger are about to take over Subsea 7 ?

No, but it would be interesting. It would mean that one company could provide much of your sub-surface needs (drilling, geology, reservoir engineering etc., although I am not too familiar with this area), and if this was to go through, much of your subsea needs also with the recent acquisition of Cameron, from trees and wellheads to installation and IRM services.

Recently companies were trying to divest out of things that weren't their core area of expertise (Subsea 7 used to be part of Halliburton). Now I imagine with low oil prices it seems the opposite is happening.

[cashinmattress]

Anyone else heard the rumour that Schlumberger are about to take over Subsea 7 ?

Perhaps they want to create some kind of partnership versus a buyout?

That would be a very strange partnership.

And the subsea side of things is dead for perhaps the next decade.

Not sure about that rumour.

Sounds as likely as the rumour of Justin Beiber replacing James Hetfield as Metallicas' front man.

[Diver Dan]

ha...love it... "insentives"

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/330399/37r--Kings-Gate/Aberdeen/

"INSENTIVES AVAILABLE CONTACT SIMPSON & MARWICK."

£3,450 per m2 ?

I hope the 'incentives' include a huge wad of cash.

Edit spelling

Edited March 18, 2016 by Diver Dan

[cashinmattress]

Some news. North Sea oil would be profitable if the running costs weren't so damn high. Tax isn't going to change that.

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/7824/north-sea-oil-industry-down-but-not-out-insists-lobby-group/

North Sea oil industry down but not out, insists lobby group

But critics say the North Sea is rapidly turning into a dead sea and that it is wrong for George Osborne to provide a £1bn package of tax breaks when carbon-producing fossil fuels should be buried not resuscitated.

And when the industry is 'down', it gets several kicks in the gut, now from an environmental lobby.

http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Lower_oil_prices_lead_to_higher_CO2_emissions_999.html

Lower oil prices lead to higher CO2 emissions

If the price of oil decreases, carbon dioxide emissions increase. This is what two Spanish scientists claim after comparing the relationship between air pollution and economic development by using the real oil prices in Spain between 1874 and 2011 as an indicator. The scientists suggest a need to design new energy taxes.

http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/No_more_Gulf_drilling_advocates_say_999.html

No more Gulf drilling, advocates say

As the Obama administration pulls the Atlantic Ocean off a drilling list, activist backers on the southern U.S. coast said they're wary of Gulf of Mexico plans.

http://www.epmag.com/rigs-eps-drillers-are-down-count-842051

Rigs, E&Ps, Drillers Are Down For The Count

A spike in oil prices in early March has done nothing to patch them up. Oil companies have guided production lower; drillers are running bare bones operations; and horizontal rigs are simply not in demand.

And big cuts!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/eni-plans-more-than-14-billion-in-cost-cuts-asset-sales-1458308597

Eni Plans More Than $14 Billion in Cost Cuts, Asset Sales

Eni SpA Friday announced plans for €13 billion ($14.71 billion) in cost cuts and asset sales, the latest major oil and gas company to further adjust its strategy to the enduring low crude oil prices.

We're not through this yet. Not by a long shot.

[babo456]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/863827/aberdeen-property-market-suffering-a-see-saw-downswing-but-granite-city-can-recover/

Update from ''The P1ss and J1zz'' rag as cashinmattress correctly terms it.

[Diver Dan]

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/863827/aberdeen-property-market-suffering-a-see-saw-downswing-but-granite-city-can-recover/

Update from ''The P1ss and J1zz'' rag as cashinmattress correctly terms it.

Is anyone actually still buying the 'normal service will resume shortly' narrative?

[cashinmattress]

So as is typical, we have to go elsewhere to get any real news or numbers about the city.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e25a94a6fbec4f51a37c77b482c5ff1f/oil-price-plunge-north-sea-industry-faces-perfect-storm

In oil price plunge, North Sea industry faces perfect storm

ABERDEEN, Scotland (AP) — It's Thursday night and the Spider's Web pub is packed with beefy guys in windproof jackets and massive backpacks. The exhausted oil rig workers pile their bags against the wall, play pool or just slump in the leather seats, knocking back pints of beer.

But despite the drink, there's not much laughter. It's not work that bothers them, but the prospect that the work will end.

"I'm worried," says Fraser Jamieson, an engineer who has spent the past 20 years on North Sea oil rigs. "We're all worried."

The North Sea oil industry, the biggest and oldest in Europe, is struggling with a toxic combination of aging, drying wells and the recent plunge in oil prices, which is forcing companies to rethink investments and putting thousands of jobs at risk. Estimates suggest more than a third of some 330 oil fields in the U.K. North Sea will close in the next five years.

"There is a sort of perfect storm," said Dorrik Stow, director of the Institute of Petroleum Engineering at Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, Scotland. "Those cumulative factors are going to negatively impact on the North Sea unless there is a fairly significant upsurge in the price of oil."

Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil, hit a 12-year low of $27.10 a barrel in January amid slowing economic growth in China and increased production in the U.S. That's down from more than $100 a barrel as recently as September 2014. While prices have recovered somewhat, Brent traded for about $42 on Friday and most experts don't expect a significant rebound soon.

Low prices are causing turmoil internationally in an industry that has been going through booms and busts ever since 1859, when the first drilling rig was built in Titusville, Pennsylvania.

For the North Sea, each new bust accelerates its downward spiral, hurting the countries that tap it — Britain, Norway and to a lesser extent the Netherlands.

Norway on Thursday slashed interest rates in a bid to help the economy manage the oil sector's drop. In Britain, the government this week offered tax relief to oil companies to protect jobs and stem a decline in government income. Tax revenue from the industry dropped to 2.1 billion pounds ($3 billion) last year from 10.9 billion pounds in 2011-12.

Some of the biggest platforms are being dismantled as the industry forecasts production will drop to 45 million tons of oil equivalent this year, less than a third of the 150 million tons produced in 1999. Shell, for example, has started the process of decommissioning the Brent oilfield — which has produced 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent since 1976 and gave its name to the international crude oil benchmark.

Oil companies are expected to invest about 1 billion pounds ($1.4 billion) in new projects this year, compared with a recent average of 8 billion pounds, industry association Oil & Gas U.K. says.

And it is hitting workers hard. Some 5,500 people have lost their jobs, or 15 percent of the 36,600 directly employed in the industry at the end of 2013, according to Oil & Gas U.K. The group estimates that total direct and indirect employment supported by the industry has fallen to 375,000 from a peak of 440,000.

If the oil price remains around $30 a barrel for the rest of 2016, almost half of the North Sea fields "are likely to be operating at a loss, deterring further exploration and capital investment," according to Oil & Gas U.K. "2016 is going to be quite pivotal," said Fiona Legate, a research analyst at Wood MacKenzie. "We will see distress sales, and it will be make or break for a lot of companies."

The doldrums are evident in the port of Cromarty Firth, a small deepwater estuary near the Scottish town of Inverness at the back door of the central North Sea. In the past, the port usually housed two rigs at a time as they underwent periodic maintenance. Now it hosts 10 — split roughly between rigs that are expected to be dismantled and those that are parked in hopes that higher oil prices will mean new contracts.

It's tough for a community in which rig maintenance meant good jobs. The port's chief executive, Bob Buskie, believes this downturn is unlike others because there isn't likely to be a boom after the bust.

"We have to realize that what's gone on in the past is in the past, and for the industry to survive in the future the whole model has to change to some extent," he said.

For Buskie that means getting work decommissioning the platforms once built and maintained in Cromarty Firth. It also means looking for new business. He's trying to attract more cruise ships packed with tourists who want to take in the delights of the Scottish Highlands, complete with bus tours of nearby Loch Ness and local whisky distilleries.

"There is a new normal," Buskie said. "We have to find out what the new normal is."

And in the period of transition, there is uncertainty for those who depend on oil for their livelihoods.

In Aberdeen, the Scottish city at the heart of North Sea oil, restaurants are empty at lunchtime. Hotel parking lots are barren. Helicopters once busy ferrying workers are parked on the tarmac.

It's common to hear conversations about people who have been laid off or are barely hanging on. Retired engineer Ken Forbes, 70, suggests the high-fliers made rich by oil are "coming down to Earth with a big bang."

At the cozy Sanddollar cafe on the Aberdeen seafront, the lunchtime crowd clears quickly despite the prospect of luscious lemon cake and hot tea. Waiter Piotr Kowalski, 23, said he's noticed that people are much more careful about what they order.

"They spend less," he said, noting the downturn. "They don't go out so often in the first place."

Tommy Campbell, a regional organizer at the Unite union's Aberdeen headquarters, sees the pain every day. Just last week one worker told him the entire team on his rig — some 30 people — had been put on notice for redundancy.

He argues oil companies have responsibilities not just to shareholders, but to the communities that support them. He says the union is "organizing and speaking up with our demand for a U.K. summit," that would bring companies, politicians and the community together to think creatively about what's next rather than just cutting headcounts. Otherwise the pain will just continue.

"We're throwing rattles out of the prams," he said. "Everybody is losing out."

http://www.scotsman.com/business/markets-economy/aberdeen-oil-woes-take-toll-on-commercial-property-1-4075591#comments-area

Aberdeen oil woes take toll on commercial property

Scotland saw a near-£1 billion slide in commercial property investment last year according to new research that provides fresh evidence the Aberdeen slowdown is having a major impact on the wider market.

Releasing the findings of its latest quarterly property report, consultancy CBRE said the “relative under performance” of the Aberdeen office market had pulled the Scottish all-property total return lower.

Despite that, several sectors managed to outperform an all-property return of 9.2 per cent, with Edinburgh industrials posting a year-on-year gain of 18.3 per cent for the final quarter of 2015, down from 21.5 per cent in Q3. This was followed by Edinburgh offices, with a total return of 14.8 per cent, unchanged from the previous report.

The research notes that investment activity last year “wasn’t quite up to the pace of 2014”. By the end of 2015, a total of £2.17 billion of investment had been made across Scotland – some £900 million less than the previous year.

The only sector which came close to matching the volumes of 2014 was offices, which saw almost £800m being transacted. The largest deal came at the tail end of the year with the sale and leaseback of Standard Life’s headquarters on Lothian Road, Edinburgh.

The key retail deal of the year was the purchase of the Eastgate Centre in Inverness for £116m by Harbert and Scoop Asset Management, with the sector as a whole seeing its transactions totalling £667m in 2015.

CBRE said the most notable change between 2014 and last year was investment into industrial property, with only £143m spent despite the sector’s superior performance for returns, down from £414m the previous year.

Aileen Knox, senior director at CBRE, said: “In the main, the Scotland property quarterly report has shown a fairly varied performance for Scottish real estate across 2015, with capital growth gathering positive results at 3.3 per cent for the year and Glasgow offices showing quarter-on-quarter increase in returns, while the slowdown of the Aberdeen market influenced the final figures.”

Last month, research suggested that investment in Aberdeen’s commercial property market slumped by 80 per cent last year.

The dramatic downturn across the oil industry saw total investment volumes in the Granite City tumble from more than £800m in 2014 to just £162m, commercial property data provider CoStar Group said.

Anecdotally, I've spoken to a few folk placed in mid level in some recognisable firms... going to be releasing a lot of people in the next while. And that is not restricted to office workers. There are storage and construction yards, manufacturing facilities, and specialist small workshops/business all in trouble.

Cash flow is now non-existent in so many companies.

And some companies are now unable to even afford the process of redundancy.... perhaps ignorance (diver dan's return to normal meme)? Or perhaps that is about incompetence?

Surely this kind of incident will accelerate the closing of many operators (aged/antique) assets...

http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/7840/brae-alpha-gas-leak-categorised-as-major-incident/

New documents show a gas leak on the Brae Alpha platform was categorised as “major” by the Health and Safety executive (HSE).

The North Sea platform has been shut down since the incident and is expected to resume production in the second quarter of this year.

Figures obtained from the latest Oil & Gas UK documents show there was a 2148KG gas release from the Brae Alpha, which is 155miles from Aberdeen.

A “major” incident is described as having the potential to “quickly impact” out with the local area with the ability to cause “serious injury or fatalities”. The classification says a major leak, if ignited, would likely cause a “major accident”.

Marathon Oil declined to comment.

Edited March 21, 2016 by cashinmattress

[sfr]

That AP one was a good find Cash.

Won't get any 'local' rag reporting how it is for fear of being, at best, pilloried for talking down the market.

At worst feeling the wrath of those bank rolling them....

[dances with sheeple]

I'm worried," says Fraser Jamieson, an engineer who has spent the past 20 years on North Sea oil rigs. "We're all worried."

Should really only be worried about what books he is going to read on his time off, some investments books maybe, for all that cash you should have banked over two decades?

[Palangot]

I've worked offshore and there were some people who were steady-Eddies.

They had a wife/family onshore, didn't go wild when on shore leave and saved, were sensible and whilst they were not living like paupers, they live within their means.

They were in the minority.

Also, the industry tends to attract a certain type of person. And when you think that it's very hard to remain immune from peer pressure, it's not wonder that Fifty-K-Fraser is shitting himself because his second wife is still chasing him for half of the school ski trip costs for little Lexi/Jaxon and his third wife wants a new Evoque (the one is a 2013 plate!).