Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[babo456]

Yes the true debt is very much higher. It's insane. I read about the 'bad bank' yesterday and my mind was struggling to compute as how that is possible other than "Not our problem anymore" just put in a more round about term in that article. Can you imagine us mere plebs trying to get off with out paying off our debts. The really scary thing is that the government debt can't really he paid off at all, along with a large amount of personal debt. It really does play on my mind that the next crash will be a hell of alot worse because we didn't save the right institutions and let the real cancerous ones die.

[Oily]

The fundamental issue is that of democracy and a gullible 'have it now' population. Any government that tells the truth and promotes safe, effective policies simply won't get elected. Imagine a political party in 2004 pushing for higher interest rates and responsible credit restrictions to put the brakes on runaway asset prices and the credit bubble. Who would have voted for a party advocating lower growth while the rest of the world boomed?

Whilst Gogs Brown harped on about 'prudence' he clearly had no idea what was going on. Unfortunately he managed to fool most of the people most of the time and was able to shift the blame on to the 'unforseen' global economic crisis. A few countries like Canada held on to their old school banking values and emerged from the global crisis relatively unscathed.

I don't have a good feeling about the future as I don't see a way out the overwhelming debt problems the developed nations have created for themselves - thanks to the electorate believing politicians impossible promises.

[cashinmattress]

A few countries like Canada held on to their old school banking values and emerged from the global crisis relatively unscathed.

I don't know about that. Household debt in Canada is terrible, and the cost of living has skyrocketed. Their household debt levels have never been higher actually.

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/canadians-household-debt-highest-in-g7-with-crunch-on-brink-of-historic-levels-pbo-warns

http://globalnews.ca/news/2391270/canadian-grocery-prices-will-continue-to-skyrocket-next-year/

http://news.nationalpost.com/health/its-not-free-canadian-health-care-insurance-almost-doubles-in-cost-during-last-decade-as-average-family-pays-12k

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/in-canada-one-signal-of-2008-financial-crisis-is-flashing-again

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=33cf9d88-98b0-41d7-b125-6b43ed98fff9

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/16/global-debt-crisis-federal-reserve_n_8135266.html

Toronto houses averaging 10x salary, Vancouver houses averaging 15x salary, based on median prices and median household salaries. Double those numbers for single earners on average wages.

Going back to the 90's, the mass influx of Chinese immigrants and their monies inflated all the desirable areas of Canada.

And their former bank governor, now ours, greatly exacerbated the credit market madness in mortgages.

Canada's houses are HEAVILY over valued, and their mortgage credit market is falling.

They are due a massive bust.

Big difference is that Canada is USA's #1 trading partner, and has some of the world greatest quantities of natural resources.

It also operates a federal system, with the regional economies tailored to their assets and geography.

The GDP breakdown of their economy isn't far from that of the UK though Agriculture 1.6%, Industry 28.9% , Services 70.5% ( UK Agriculture 0.6%, Industry 19.7% , Services 79.6%), but the GDP per head is marginally higher.

Their health care system is also in deep doodoo, with huge cost increases across the board and running on an unsustainable model.

Pension... well, they are massively underfunded as well. Exactly like the USA & UK.

So, like the other western nations, they are sleepwalking into a massive breakdown to society for everybody 40 and under as we are all living way beyond our means.

And like the USA, most of Canada's infrastructure is well beyond it's sell by date.

But yes, Canada did have the right idea with regulated mortgage lending... and avoided most of the 2008 crash. But now Carney's wolves have settled in and there is all kinds of sub prime lending.

Heck. Even a (money pit wooden) house I sold in Canada in 2004 has tripled in price FFS. It is still a money pit and by the look of it needs new cladding, new roof, new windows, all kinds of stuff (its currently on sale again).

Oh yea, and Canada STILL has feckin terrible holiday entitlement at 16 sad days, two feckin paid weeks off + civics! (USA has zero haha)

Source: I have a Canadian citizenship + UK, live in UK and not going back.

Edited March 23, 2016 by cashinmattress

[AD14]

l think we're agreed that the housing situation in Aberdeen has been pretty unhealthy for some time and it would be good to see some reasonable balance restored. I must admit I'm surprised house prices have remained stubbornly high in spite of escalating supply and weak demand. Perhaps the dam will burst soon?

I think it depends on how desperate people are to sell. Now isn't a good time to be selling a house in Aberdeen, and those not desperate to sell will likely be holding on, waiting for a pickup in the market, rather than selling for below what they perceive that their property is worth.

In truth, I don't ever expect to see advertised prices drop markedly. A lot of people too invested in HPI, both financially and emotionally, for that to happen.

[cashinmattress]

I think it depends on how desperate people are to sell. Now isn't a good time to be selling a house in Aberdeen, and those not desperate to sell will likely be holding on, waiting for a pickup in the market, rather than selling for below what they perceive that their property is worth.

In truth, I don't ever expect to see advertised prices drop markedly. A lot of people too invested in HPI, both financially and emotionally, for that to happen.

While I agree on this, it is a fact that the high street realtors are posting ads with the word REDUCED PRICE in big letters.

I have never seen so many REDUCED PRICE housing ads in any city I've lived in for that matter.

And it's only going to get worse... and everybody knows this. Even agents, solicitors, and property trolls on various forums.

This is having a major effect on the psyche of the city and its HPI addicted inhabitants.

Property is off topic at the pub, and talking about falling property generally gets you the same venom and/or isolation as an outed homosexual in 1950's Britain.

Yes there are always going to be a few cases where somebody gets their asking price, but the vast majority are going to have to drop repeatedly and are also ensured long waits until they get any offers at all.

I mean look, our other inglorious rag (Excruciatingly Espoused) is front paging stories of 1,600 new build low cost home schemes! And 2,630 in the longer scheme?

That's pure win for massively negative HPI in the city and shire. Who the heck are they (very poorly) trying to pimp property for? [the usual suspects]

And this is about house building....not improving the city / shire infrastructure... dude.

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/council_government/shaping_aberdeen/City_Centre_Masterplan.asp

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/new-homes-part-of-150m-plan-for-new-town-centre2/

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/affordable-housing-signed-off/

EDIT: with all this building proposed, I can see something being developed (in a back room) where they truck in loads of 'poor' from other Scottish cities and house them here. It's happened before.

Edited March 23, 2016 by cashinmattress

[dances with sheeple]

I think it depends on how desperate people are to sell. Now isn't a good time to be selling a house in Aberdeen, and those not desperate to sell will likely be holding on, waiting for a pickup in the market, rather than selling for below what they perceive that their property is worth.

In truth, I don't ever expect to see advertised prices drop markedly. A lot of people too invested in HPI, both financially and emotionally, for that to happen.

Is that you Hamish? This site seems less busy just now, not sure many will bother rising to the bait. My tuppence worth is that it will deteriorate into a firesale very quickly, many people will want to just leave the city and look for oil related/any work elsewhere. Even if you sit tight the market is made at the margins, so your house will be losing money.

[Oily]

I don't know about that. Household debt in Canada is terrible, and the cost of living has skyrocketed. Their household debt levels have never been higher actually.

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/canadians-household-debt-highest-in-g7-with-crunch-on-brink-of-historic-levels-pbo-warns

http://globalnews.ca/news/2391270/canadian-grocery-prices-will-continue-to-skyrocket-next-year/

http://news.nationalpost.com/health/its-not-free-canadian-health-care-insurance-almost-doubles-in-cost-during-last-decade-as-average-family-pays-12k

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/in-canada-one-signal-of-2008-financial-crisis-is-flashing-again

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=33cf9d88-98b0-41d7-b125-6b43ed98fff9

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/16/global-debt-crisis-federal-reserve_n_8135266.html

Toronto houses averaging 10x salary, Vancouver houses averaging 15x salary, based on median prices and median household salaries. Double those numbers for single earners on average wages.

Going back to the 90's, the mass influx of Chinese immigrants and their monies inflated all the desirable areas of Canada.

And their former bank governor, now ours, greatly exacerbated the credit market madness in mortgages.

Canada's houses are HEAVILY over valued, and their mortgage credit market is falling.

They are due a massive bust.

Big difference is that Canada is USA's #1 trading partner, and has some of the world greatest quantities of natural resources.

It also operates a federal system, with the regional economies tailored to their assets and geography.

The GDP breakdown of their economy isn't far from that of the UK though Agriculture 1.6%, Industry 28.9% , Services 70.5% ( UK Agriculture 0.6%, Industry 19.7% , Services 79.6%), but the GDP per head is marginally higher.

Their health care system is also in deep doodoo, with huge cost increases across the board and running on an unsustainable model.

Pension... well, they are massively underfunded as well. Exactly like the USA & UK.

So, like the other western nations, they are sleepwalking into a massive breakdown to society for everybody 40 and under as we are all living way beyond our means.

And like the USA, most of Canada's infrastructure is well beyond it's sell by date.

But yes, Canada did have the right idea with regulated mortgage lending... and avoided most of the 2008 crash. But now Carney's wolves have settled in and there is all kinds of sub prime lending.

Heck. Even a (money pit wooden) house I sold in Canada in 2004 has tripled in price FFS. It is still a money pit and by the look of it needs new cladding, new roof, new windows, all kinds of stuff (its currently on sale again).

Oh yea, and Canada STILL has feckin terrible holiday entitlement at 16 sad days, two feckin paid weeks off + civics! (USA has zero haha)

Source: I have a Canadian citizenship + UK, live in UK and not going back.

Crikey - I had no idea Canada had got into such a mess! Thanks for the excellent analysis.

Speaking of basket cases - wtf has happened to Greece? It's all gone suspiciously quiet media-wise, although Simon Reeves's recent travel documentary was a real eye opener (and not in a good way). I suspect Dave C was keen to have the EU referendum asap before this, and other issues, kick off again.

[Oily]

Is that you Hamish? This site seems less busy just now, not sure many will bother rising to the bait. My tuppence worth is that it will deteriorate into a firesale very quickly, many people will want to just leave the city and look for oil related/any work elsewhere. Even if you sit tight the market is made at the margins, so your house will be losing money.

Some people will decide to sit tight whilst others will have to sell. I have no idea how many will be in the latter group but I guess it is probably a significant number, either to move away for work or because they can no longer pay their mortgage(s). Although the rules surrounding distressed borrowers and bankruptcy are more lenient than they were in the 80's if you can't pay your mortgage in the long term the lender will repossess.

As an example of a significantly reduced price property I notice this one, which was previously mentioned on this forum, is now up for auction, presumably because the 70 odd grand below valuation price failed to attract a buyer:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39773347?search_identifier=83a1ac15ddb3c2501b467e07ec355808

I don't know the circumstances of this particular property but if there's a trend towards houses appearing at auction then prices may start to tumble.

Ultimately the market will prevail and with low demand and a surge in the supply of both existing and new properties prices can surely only head one way?

[Palangot]

owners won't reduce their prices.

sellers will.

[Venger]

I think it depends on how desperate people are to sell. Now isn't a good time to be selling a house in Aberdeen, and those not desperate to sell will likely be holding on, waiting for a pickup in the market, rather than selling for below what they perceive that their property is worth.

In truth, I don't ever expect to see advertised prices drop markedly. A lot of people too invested in HPI, both financially and emotionally, for that to happen.

You don't think so?

Well in that case, I don't want to hear any complaints whatsoever from anyone who sees their property fall in value, into a coming HPC.

Too much wanting to exonerate people in this market. We've had the near zirp, the gloabl $Trillions QE... now the US taper, no US QE (ok we have Euro QE) - asset prices inflated, massive malinvestment double down... and coyote-style treading air top of bubble. You don't want to sell into it. That's A-OK. Others eventually will sell, perhaps your neighbour, and they will accept lower prices. They will accept a price lower than you think your near identical house is worth. And guess what... values are set at the margin. You can't claim your house is worth £850,000 when next door has just sold for £650,000.

[Palangot]

that house in N. Silver Street looks nice.

It's in a great location, close to Under the Hammer and the Globe.

It does look like Liberace lived there on his 2 weeks off though! The cost of toning down the décor will be expensive and even at £350 it is expensive.

So it's a no from me.

[cashinmattress]

A lot of 'self employed' contractor people will be drawing into their 'corporate' holdings, paying taxes on them and declaring a wage in order to pay their mortgage and bills.

Even with all the talk of spending like Beckham in the city, there's still a lot who have big wads of cash sitting in business bank accounts... because they knew that eventually this would come.

Source: my accountant.

Yet, there are still a lot more who've spent every penny, only seeing as far as the nose on their face. The same people who think that oil money grows on trees and that Aberdeens' 'success' was all about this region being 'smarter' and more 'specialised' than anywhere else (yeah right). All the while they've been willingly doling out ridiculous sums of money for just about everything. So who is the smart man? The Audi dealership, ASPC, Canoda's Gypsy park, all the bunk training 'schools', all the £5/pint pubs? Or the guy that blows his wad?

that house in N. Silver Street looks nice.

It's in a great location, close to Under the Hammer and the Globe.

It does look like Liberace lived there on his 2 weeks off though! The cost of toning down the décor will be expensive and even at £350 it is expensive.

So it's a no from me.

Hey, if you like men, bummings/bjs, toilet trading, silver street is where the action is at! (after dark of course)

Source: my hairdresser.

Edited March 23, 2016 by cashinmattress

[Venger]

I think it depends on how desperate people are to sell. Now isn't a good time to be selling a house in Aberdeen, and those not desperate to sell will likely be holding on, waiting for a pickup in the market, rather than selling for below what they perceive that their property is worth.

In truth, I don't ever expect to see advertised prices drop markedly. A lot of people too invested in HPI, both financially and emotionally, for that to happen.

If you say so. It won't stop some sellers realising, eventually, they could cash out for massive-gainz, even if they sold for £200K less than peak.

Or at all levels of the market - lower and mid... not just high.

Few weeks ago I accepted a best offer on ebay of £600 for an item. I listed it at £750. Had offers coming in next day as low as £500. I cut price after a few days to £675 and accepted £600 a few hours later (wanted it shifted). Market. You might find it difficult to believe, but some people also like money. Especially when there is a trigger for how much tougher it's getting out in the market, when the money is getting tighter/scarce.

[AD14]

While I agree on this, it is a fact that the high street realtors are posting ads with the word REDUCED PRICE in big letters.

I have never seen so many REDUCED PRICE housing ads in any city I've lived in for that matter.

And it's only going to get worse... and everybody knows this. Even agents, solicitors, and property trolls on various forums.

This is having a major effect on the psyche of the city and its HPI addicted inhabitants.

But what is the magnitude of these drops? A few grand, a couple of percent? Because I just can't see HPI disciples lopping £50,000 off the price of their property unless they really have to. People would have to admit that their bricks and mortar aren't sacred, but assets and its price, like other assets, can go down as well as up. That it's ultimately the market that defines the value of their property, and there is no law of economics that says that this value can only increase indefinitely.

A more likely scenario in my opinion is that prices are continually titrated down (a "REDUCED" sign attracts interest regardless of by how much it is reduced) with perhaps the price listed on the EA becoming nominal. Buyers could expect big bargains relative to the asking price.

[AD14]

If you say so. It won't stop some sellers realising, eventually, they could cash out for massive-gainz, even if they sold for £200K less than peak.

Or at all levels of the market - lower and mid... not just high.

Few weeks ago I accepted a best offer on ebay of £600 for an item. I listed it at £750. Had offers coming in next day as low as £500. I cut price after a few days to £675 and accepted £600 a few hours later (wanted it shifted). Market. You might find it difficult to believe, but some people also like money. Especially when there is a trigger for how much tougher it's getting out in the market, when the money is getting tighter/scarce.

What about if you did not really need to sell your item, or that you believed your item could only ever increase in value over time? Or that the market for said item would pick-up again in the future?

[cashinmattress]

But what is the magnitude of these drops? A few grand, a couple of percent? Because I just can't see HPI disciples lopping £50,000 off the price of their property unless they really have to. People would have to admit that their bricks and mortar aren't sacred, but assets and its price, like other assets, can go down as well as up. That it's ultimately the market that defines the value of their property, and there is no law of economics that says that this value can only increase indefinitely.

A more likely scenario in my opinion is that prices are continually titrated down (a "REDUCED" sign attracts interest regardless of by how much it is reduced) with perhaps the price listed on the EA becoming nominal. Buyers could expect big bargains relative to the asking price.

Don't know. Don't care?

The point is that this is something new to the region.

People out pubbing, going dinner, shopping, pass these high street windows regularly.

Its like a thumb in the minds eye, and burns into it.

So, the mantra that property is a winning bet is pretty much dead in the city/shire, and the folk selling will recognise that they are competing against the lowest common denominator...a place nobody here has been in decades... ie; a free for all buyers market.

[quine]

But what is the magnitude of these drops? A few grand, a couple of percent? Because I just can't see HPI disciples lopping £50,000 off the price of their property unless they really have to. People would have to admit that their bricks and mortar aren't sacred, but assets and its price, like other assets, can go down as well as up. That it's ultimately the market that defines the value of their property, and there is no law of economics that says that this value can only increase indefinitely.

A more likely scenario in my opinion is that prices are continually titrated down (a "REDUCED" sign attracts interest regardless of by how much it is reduced) with perhaps the price listed on the EA becoming nominal. Buyers could expect big bargains relative to the asking price.

There have been plenty / there are plenty of houses on the market in Aberdeen and the shire with £50k + reductions. If you read back this thread you'll find them (lots of them still not sold) Other than that do some research yourself and you'll see what's happening.

There are, of course, others trying to sell - with their heads in the sand. I see properties being re-listed on ASPC at the same price that they failed to sell for 6 months ago - and that price being the valuation! One of those came on ASPC today. Naivety in its extreme.

[ccc]

People in Edinburgh 'slashed' prices in order to sell them between 2009 and 2013 ish.

My own mum and dad "50k off" as an example.

And this was in "prices have and will never drop" Edinburgh.

Anyone who thinks prices can't collapse in Aberdeen with what's happening right now are deluded IMO.

Of course it's not guaranteed - nothing is - but it's pretty close to it.

[cashinmattress]

Eh? WTF is this sh1t Willie Young (et al)? What the h3ll are you getting us involved in now?

http://www.propertyweek.com/news/aberdeen-council-signs-%C2%A3300m-resi-deal-with-places-for-people/5080034.article

Aberdeen City Council has signed a landmark £300m deal with developer Places for People to build up to 3,000 new homes across eight sites in the city without using public funds.

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/places-for-people-named-in-300m-aberdeen-deal/7014534.article

A housing association has been named as Aberdeen City Council’s partner to build up to 3,000 homes in the city in a £300m partnership.

Places for People (PfP) will take a 50% share in a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) with the council to build, own and manage homes across eight sites in the city.

The partnership will share equally any development profits. PfP was named as preferred bidder for the scheme in October, and confirmed yesterday.

The partnership will build 2,000 homes, and hopes to deliver 1,000 more, without any government funding. These will include 1,000 new homes for social and midmarket rent and 1,000 new homes for private sale.

The deal is the first time a Scottish local authority has created a 50/50 partnership with a developer which creates both affordable housing and homes for private sale.

David Cowans, group chief executive at Places for People, described the deal as “transformational”.

Jenny Laing, leader of Aberdeen Council, said: “These thousands of new homes will help to address a shortage of housing in Aberdeen.”

http://www.placesforpeople.co.uk/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Places_for_People

How many other ways can you bring this city down from within?

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/inside-housing-chief-executive-salary-survey-2015/7011635.article

Places for People (PfP), which pays its chief executive David Cowans the highest total salary in the sector, at £481,507.

My goodness.

Edited March 23, 2016 by cashinmattress

[dances with sheeple]

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5389978&page=9

[AD14]

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5389978&page=9

Need a username and password. Is there a TL;DR?

[Venger]

What about if you did not really need to sell your item, or that you believed your item could only ever increase in value over time? Or that the market for said item would pick-up again in the future?

We have to make our own decisions in the market. It did occur to me it may go up in value in future. However I was happy with the price, and it also occurred to me the market may fall by some way yet. Especially having a few offers at £500. Money seems tighter.

I sold 2 of the same item for £1000 and £1100 a few years ago (near peak), so have already lost out by not selling the 3rd at the higher prices available at that point. (I kept the 3rd because I liked looking at it, and thinking market may be stable-ish for some time - turned out it wasn't, and I cut the emotional ties, and sold for cash at lower price... and still £100-ish more than I bought it for, after the £62.50 extra selling fee to ebay that I've just paid on top of other PayPal fee).

We have to make decisions in the market. Including owners. Some will decide to sell.

It doesn't take too many sellers and buyers in a market, to set the value, both up and down. Those holding are at the mercy of other sellers (for today's values) - and in markets you can have long-wave ups, crackup-ups, and falls and cascades in value. And set by very few transactions on the up, and on the down.

Markets are driven at the margin. They’re driven by people who have to buy or people who have to sell. So when you get to the point when there are people who must sell, and that will come, then prices fall across the board because not many people have to be forced to sell at a low price to push values down.

We make our own decisions. There are no special flowers. 'I thought it was value / protect my HPI'. Take ownership of your own financial decisions.

Edited March 23, 2016 by Venger

[quine]

https://www.onthemarket.com/details/2041170/?utm_source=home_co_uk&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=home_feed

33 Queens Crescent - bought for £500k in 2010 and now can't sell for £430k

https://www.onthemarket.com/details/2041170/?utm_source=home_co_uk&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=home_feed

Under 400k now and still no takers for a Stewartie Milne house, surprise surprise.

[quine]

Here's a house for sale that was reduced today. Down 16% from survey valuation of £450k to £379k. On market since March 2014. It sounds like if there are any sales they are going for under the asking price.

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/333595/65-Albury-Place/Aberdeen/

£450k to £365k now. Prices are dropping all the time. Job keeping up with them all.

[quine]

People in Edinburgh 'slashed' prices in order to sell them between 2009 and 2013 ish.

My own mum and dad "50k off" as an example.

And this was in "prices have and will never drop" Edinburgh.

Anyone who thinks prices can't collapse in Aberdeen with what's happening right now are deluded IMO.

Of course it's not guaranteed - nothing is - but it's pretty close to it.

As I said in a previous post I was an executor last year (west end of Aberdeen) and we had to advertise the property at "66k under valuation price" before we got an offer.