Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

Recommended Posts

ASPC is very well established, and doesn't really have a lot of new estate agents appearing, so I think it's probably quite useful to monitor the number of properties on sale and how long they've been there.

From a post I made on 21st May:

For sale : 963

Added in last week : 183 (19%)

Added in last month : 667 (69%)

Over a month : 296 (31%)

Today (26th May)

For sale : 968

Added in last week : 194 (20%)

Added in last month : 667 (69%)

Over a month : 301 (31%)

Please don't jump on these and try to read too much into them! I think the important figures are the number added in the last week, and the number that are over a month old. With a lack of ongoing data, it will be absolutely useless until either a crash begins to unfold or a year into it, and, TBH, I probably can't be arsed keeping this up for a year!

BTW, I realise the percentages don't add up to 100%. If you can't work out why, I would probably be wasting any effort.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Coming to the boil nicely.

Fit like the noo !!!

I wish I could share your optimism, but without a severe credit crunch and/or the price of oil going down, I don't see significant reductions in price any time soon.

D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wish I could share your optimism, but without a severe credit crunch and/or the price of oil going down, I don't see significant reductions in price any time soon.

D

How about this news headline:

SHELL SILENT OVER THREAT TO SHED 3,500 JOBS

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/displayNo...;pNodeId=149221

OK, the jobs are going in Nigeria but there's a lot of service and technology companies in Aberdeen that provide for the Nigerian oil market. I'd imagine significant reductions in Nigerian operations will impact Aberdeen.

Edited by Anthony

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How about this news headline:

SHELL SILENT OVER THREAT TO SHED 3,500 JOBS

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/displayNo...;pNodeId=149221

OK, the jobs are going in Nigeria but there's a lot of service and technology companies in Aberdeen that provide for the Nigerian oil market. I'd imagine significant reductions in Nigerian operations will impact Aberdeen.

Any major Shell reductions could have a more negative effect than HPI, speaking personally. I'm hoping that credit will continue to tighten and sentiment will turn here in Aberdeen. Although with the gains of the last 24 months it will still take a bargain to really get me to bite, even if sentiment does turn.

However, some of the outerlying places such as ellon which have went up sharply as the city has become too expensive may take a significant dive. To be honest I'm looking at a pair of green cards for the US - sad really as Scotland is my home, but between excessive taxes and HPI I'm not sure that I want to stay here much longer :(

D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How about this news headline:

SHELL SILENT OVER THREAT TO SHED 3,500 JOBS

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/displayNo...;pNodeId=149221

OK, the jobs are going in Nigeria but there's a lot of service and technology companies in Aberdeen that provide for the Nigerian oil market. I'd imagine significant reductions in Nigerian operations will impact Aberdeen.

Unless I am very much mistaken, be prepared for some very interesting news from one major player here in the North East. Can't say much more than that I'm afraid, but it might be enough to gently shake confidence in the market.

D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Unless I am very much mistaken, be prepared for some very interesting news from one major player here in the North East. Can't say much more than that I'm afraid, but it might be enough to gently shake confidence in the market.

D

There have been mumblings of Shell selling the Brent field for some time, however Im now hearing this story from Shell employees themselves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There have been mumblings of Shell selling the Brent field for some time, however Im now hearing this story from Shell employees themselves.

O.K. the news is out

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/6752123.stm

Not as bad as I had feared - which is good news for the local economy, but bad news for those of us who would like to see confidence in property take a tumble.

D

P.S. Gruff, apologies for deviating from the original thread subject

Edited by Dosser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No worries. Would have updated yesterday, but I was off work yesterday and didn't log on.

Anyway, the stats:

For sale : 1064

Added in last week : 179 (16.8%)

Added in last month : 718 (67.5%)

Over a month : 346 (32.5%)

Fixed price : 136(12.8%) - I'm going to keep track of these now as well. Either new or after a quick sale...

Edited: I stupidly clicked on "To lease". Corrected now.

Edited by Mr. Gruff

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No worries. Would have updated yesterday, but I was off work yesterday and didn't log on.

Anyway, the stats:

For sale : 1064

Added in last week : 179 (16.8%)

Added in last month : 718 (67.5%)

Over a month : 346 (32.5%)

Fixed price : 136(12.8%) - I'm going to keep track of these now as well. Either new or after a quick sale...

Edited: I stupidly clicked on "To lease". Corrected now.

Good call on adding the fixed price properties. If we get to the stage where the majority of properties are fixed price, that's properties going for (a conservative estimate of) 20-30 less than they are now (unless people raise their fixed prices to compensate). If we start to see falls in prices of 10 - 20 % and those prices are fixed, that could mean prices (selling prices) fall by up to 50%, without the outward appearance of an all out crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been working in Norway on secondment for 12 months and am now faced with the bleak prosect of returning to Aberdeen.

I cannot believe how the prices have shot up even though demand seems to be ebbing (you can now buy a flat in London for less than Aberdeen).

I do not relish the prospect of returning to be at the mercy of the local Rachman style landlords and the ridiculously over inflated purchase prices.

I am seriously considering staying in Norway as the quality of life in general is far higher and you can buy a spacious 4 bedroomed house with garage for the price of a 1 bedroomed flat in Rosemount (there are also more jobs here than in Aberdeen).

I think that the way in which people have to make sealed bids for property under Scottish law is largely to blame for the continued high prices in Aberdeen, it is a system which was also used in Norway but abandoned many years ago due to corruption and misuse of the system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont want to tread on your feet Mr Gruff but just been having a look on ASPC and found out the following:

For sale : 1174

Added in last week : 132 (11.2%)

Added in last month : 645 (55.7%)

Fixed Price: 171 (14.6%)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A work colleague put his King Street flat up for sale a couple of weeks ago and so far not so much as a nibble. It's way overpriced of course, but needs to be to justify what he's paid for the new place. I think he's getting a bit worried.

Could the insanity finally be coming to an end?

Sorry, just thought I'd add an anecdotal to all the stats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A work colleague put his King Street flat up for sale a couple of weeks ago and so far not so much as a nibble. It's way overpriced of course, but needs to be to justify what he's paid for the new place. I think he's getting a bit worried.

Could the insanity finally be coming to an end?

Sorry, just thought I'd add an anecdotal to all the stats.

A friend has 2 bedroomed semi up for sale and in over 2 weeks thay have had one viewing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sold a place on kingstreet early this year - a shade over 90k from offers over 65k. Now I see smaller flats in similar locations offers over 110!

:blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I sold my 1 bed flat on holburn street for £123.5k back in March (offers over £74k). I paid £65k for it at the tail end of 2004.

I have been monitoring the ASPC stats for a few weeks now. I'm keeping an eye on fixed prices as that to me is a sign of things slowing down. My search for fixed prices £100k-300k in country areas has gone from 22 on 08/05/07 to 36 today. My filter for detached 3+bed £80k-250k (not fixed) in country areas has gone from 148 homes on 08/05/07 to 219 homes today.

Anecdotally, a guy from work was selling a flat last month and had to put it fixed price to get a sale. Another colleague is selling one on Great Western Place so I will be interested to know what he gets for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been watching the ASPC over the past year too. I had to move out of Aberdeen at the beginning of the year because it was too crazy to buy or rent when I had to move out my last place. I'd like to get back in though.

I've noticed a lot more FP recently - there were virtually none at the beginning of the year. Things still look overpriced but it's definitely not so crazy now. The one place that was on at FP back in February is still on, with a drop of 10K (it's a strange looking corrugated iron mobile home place. They were asking £110,000 for it, now dropped to £99K). I'm not sure whether it's just a summer dip though... :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Realistically I don't think there are any flats in Aberdeen that are truly worth more than 90K. Anyone who pays more at this moment in time is looking at a vast ammount of negative equity in the coming years....

The guy who bought for 65K and sold for 123.5K has 10 years worth of free rent as profit, or at least until the prices drop to enable him to reinvest his profits.

It would seem that the prices in 2004 were far more realistic than they are now.

I cannot understand why people are so keen to buy in when the market is so obviously in meltdown???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with Aberdeen, imo, is that it’s very small and compact. It’s also a long way from any other cities – stuck up there in the north, three hours by train from Edinburgh and Glasgow.

So when it goes into a boom period, which it does due to the oil it really booms. There was a massive oil boom in the 70s and there’s another one happening right now because oil prices are rising, making it economical to really work the fields in a way it just wasn’t worth doing a few years ago. When this happens, loads of people move in within a short space of time, oil companies build, there are vast technological movements. We currently have companies moving in from Eastern Europe bringing a load of staff all looking for places to stay too. It’s this kind of sudden boom that puts huge pressure on prices, buying and renting. Commuting from other places isn’t really on, unless you’re actually working on the rigs, because it’s too far from anywhere big.

However, the effect also works in reverse. When the booms end, everyone packs up and leaves again. It’s relative separation from anywhere else leaves it quite a lonely place, not a place anyone would ideally want to do business. After the 1970s oil boom, prices remained depressed right up until the new boom began last year.

For that reason, I would never buy a place in Aberdeen during a boom. The risks are simply too high. It’s the classic boom/bust economy. I have no idea how long this boom will last, but I suspect not long – shorter than the 1970s one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If peak oil is really upon us then this boom could last a long time. Having said that, I would not risk buying in Aberdeen at these prices. When the boom turns to bust, anyone with a spare 100k will be able to take their pick of decent houses. After the last bust there were so many properties on the market that even 2 years after the bust had ended there were still so many properties for sale that I was able to buy a flat at 30% discount to the previous high. When this one busts it will probably be more like a 50 or 60% discount such is the extent of the inflated prices.

The guy at my work trying to sell in King street has just changed it to a fixed price and is undercutting the other fixed price identical property in the block by 20K. To me, this is a sign that the Aberdeen market has peaked and is on its way down as earlier in the year another identical flat on his block sold for that higher fixed price.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 354 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.